Some salary cap questions for the Jazz flock
by pookeyguru
on Dec 24, 2008 11:40 AM MST
9 comments
Personally, as a Kings fan, I don't really care, as I don't think the Kings should pursue Boozer under any circumstance, and acquiring Millsap will be difficult unless the Jazz badly botch the negotiations over the summer. Even with all that said, I'm not sure Millsap will do much beyond make the KIngs a playoff team, and like everyone here I'm going to assume, I believe every team's goal should always be a championship. The Jazz have always been a team I've always had a great deal of respect for (like the Rockets--kinda ironic since so many on both sides hate each other), but even with all that, it's not easy for me to admit this: I wish the Kings had as clear a directive as the Jazz do. Now, that I've said all that, the Jazz aren't perfect themselves. Larry Miller has said many times, and many more times I suppose, that he isn't willing to pay luxury tax. I get it; I just don't think it's wise to make that proclamation public. But Larry Miller has always marched to the tune of his own drummer, which is why I suppose he is so wealthy and the Jazz have been really successful under his ownership regardless of how much money the roster was being paid. But, even then, as Miller has encountered health issues, and his son is taking over, perhaps none of this matters. However, for this exercise, I'm going to assume the elder MIller still has the ultimate control in how the purse strings are spent.
Now, I'm going to make some salary cap presumptions about the team overall, and after the jump, I'm going to show some of my evidence. Keep in mind that some of my information isn't complete, and when & where anyone can, please give me any & all correct information, and if you can even provide it, the source of your information. (I imagine the Deseret News and Trib are the 2 biggest sources. But, I'm also not a Jazz fan and don't read Ross Siler enough, or the DN much for that matter, to know exactly what he knows about the roster overall as far as salary cap matters.) The big thing I would say is that I'm basing my salary cap guestimates based on Larry Coon's FAQ, and I will make an effort to link to various things that I know to be true, and so you don't have to figure out which part of the FAQ it is part of. (I've read almost all of it, and I've been reading it for the better part of 2 years now. It takes anybody awhile, and I stopped awhile ago. But every once in awhile you learn something new. Just a tip in case you find wading it through frustrating. And it will frustrate you.)
Another point, before the jump, is that what exactly what cap number will the salary cap reach for the 2009-10 season? Many have projected the salary cap to go up, but with so many revenues down across the board, and while it's hard to imagine a steep drop of 10 million or so, it isn't nearly as simple (or easy) to imagine the salary cap staying the same, or even going up. If the salary cap goes up, it's rather easy to believe all the questions for the Jazz will not require the difficult choices many believe will have to be made. Since the Jazz aren't really looking to acquire talent, but merely keep most of the talent it has, that makes the job easier. But, being creative with money has always been a solid strength of Kevin O'Connor (like the time he raped the Kings for 2nd round picks when he took on the salary of Keon Clark in the 2003 summer trade--of course it didn't really matter to the Kings greatly, but by the same token, he got more than just salary to get the Jazz over the minimum salary hump the year before they signed Boozer or Okur). For those wondering, the salary cap is based off BRI (Basketball Related Income).
Now all that crappilicious crap is over with, and al that other hubbub, I'm going to quote Heath Ledger: Here we go......
The major question revolving around the Jazz starts with Carlos Boozer. After Basketball John noted the stupendous statements Booz made about opting out, I'm pretty sure it's safe to assume he will. Elton Brand did after not playing the entire year, and got a huge contract. If Boozer is considered healthy, he will get that money. It's not that big of a risk for him. Despite the fears some of you may have. Keep in mind that I'm using Draft Express (DX) as my salary source, and I'm also going to refer to ShamSports (DX uses that as some of their salary source), but apparently there was some kinda deal that basically kept the guy who runs Sham from updating his salary info, and now I'm just using DX cuz he apparently works for them. Or something like that. I'm not exactly sure. By & Large 3rd party salary information is generally not as valuable as firsthand (duh!), and as a suggestion, don't use Hoopshype. DX and Sham haven't updated some things (Like the Billups Iverson trade for instance), but Hoopshype doesn't fill in young players salaries or anything like that. And a lot of their numbers are very wrong. The ESPN trade checker is great for one year, but for long term it's awful. Unfortunately this exercise requires long term thinking about the Jazz salary cap.
The Carlos Boozer section
The big thing I think with Booz, as I think Mike Sorensen noted, Boozer isn't faking an injury, and it's in his, and the Jazz I suppose, best interest to let him heal. I'm of the opinion the Jazz are better off letting him walk for nothing, as painful and annoying as that is. First, any salary you bring back may push this team over the salary cap perch, and 2nd, there's no guarantee Okur or Korver opt out. But let's get to that in a minute. The big thing with Booezer is that the Jazz don't panic, and the important thing is that they don't make a move that jeopardizes their cap for the long run by taking on salary that could see them let Millsap AND Boozer walk. That would be the nightmare I could imagine. (Letting Boozer walk is easy while you got Millsap. But, letting both walk? That's revolt time. Even in this tough economic era.) Mostlly, I'm going to point out that Boozer is probably not wise to pick up his option against entering the FA market. His value is established, and one injury riddled year probably won't change that too much I imagine. So sitting tight, as difficult as it is, might be the wisest course of action. Plus, the Jazz may go deep in the playoffs this year with Booz, and why jeopardize that? The other part of the Boozer question, and this is a fairly important question I think: Does Boozer have an ETO (Early Termination Option), or an Opt Out? What's the difference? Well, as far as I can tell, it's timing, and under what circumstance a player can exercise the option. Via the Coon:
An option clause allows a contract to be extended for one additional season after the date it is scheduled to end. For example, a five-year contract with an option for the sixth year means that if the option is exercised, then the contract extends through the sixth season, but if the option is not exercised, then the contract ends after the fifth season. Options must be exercised by the July 1 that precedes the option year, except player options for players who would become restricted free agents, which must be exercised by June 25. Once exercised, an option cannot be revoked (for example, a player cannot invoke an option on June 20th and change his mind on June 25th). Conditional options are not allowed -- the existence of the option may not be contingent on some condition, such as the number of games the team wins or the points per game the player scores.
There ya go, but in laments terms, it's basically timing and after what year of the contract the player can get out of the deal. With an ETO you can opt out hours before July 1st, where as with a player option you have to opt out before June 25th. For those wondering, Elton Brand and Baron Davis both had ETO's and from what I read, both opted out at the last moment. Again, back to DX, and I suppose Sham, is that the Jazz have nearly 72 million in committed salary for next season provided all the options are exercised. But, since it's nearly a foregone conclusion Boozer (by me I suppose) will opt out, then I think you have to take his money off in this exercise. And it's important to note which players are on the books for next year regardless. They are:
Andrei Kirilenko: 16,452,000
Deron Williams: 13,758,000
CJ Miles: 3,700,000
Kostas Koufos: 1,214,040
The Mehmet Okur and Kyle Korver section
The big thing I suppose with both of these guys are what will they do. There have to be several of thought on these fellows.
- They'll opt out because the market will be there for them if there is a long playoff run, and in 2010 will just end up being a waste of time because of all the talent that will be available that summer
- They won't opt out because they won't get close to the same amount of money they got fromt he Sixers/Jazz this time around, and they'll both be quality 2nd tier Free Agents
- Or, they'll opt out because the money they can get is far better than they can get past the end of the 2011 CBA which stands to reason that they won't get paid anything near what they are now, and it's better to have a long term salary now that will get them close to the end of their career's, and by the end of the deal (say around 2013) the lesser salary won't matter as much as both guys will be at the end or just about at the end of their career's
Now, maybe I'm just out there (and I am), but even with all that said, I think there is a small possibility that #3 exists. It's a strange thing, but players who work with their agents to take care of their money ensure they are set for life. And ensure their children are too. I don't think the CBA after 2011 will be dramatically lowered, but it will lower enough that any player might want to get out of any contract they have, and sign a new one for at least 4-5 years, while they can. In fact that's exaclty what Billy Hunter suggets (you can read the whole blurb from TZ's fanhouse post on the link above in the 3rd point):
Billy Hunter, executive director of the NBA Players Association, warned last night that any potential free agent who waits around for a new CBA will do so at his own peril. Owners almost certainly won't extend the CBA through the 2011-12 season, so it is set to expire on June 30, 2011.
But, even then, that is not the question I have. The question I have is would Korver and Okur try to procure a new contract this off-season, with the off-chance the Jazz might consider an extension during the contract? That is possible, and with 8% raises available, would Korver and Okur even merit that? I say no, but look for big stars like James and Wade to take advantage of this rule. Ultimately those are the guys that are completely irreplacable. Korver and Okur are effective quality rotation players for the Jazz, but you can replace them if you look carefully. There isn't any number of players that can replace Korver or Okur. And that's why I don't think either guy will opt out. Both are making quality money for their talents, and their positions, and both are in a quality situation on a quality team surrounded by quality talents that help minimize their individual weakness' collectively. So, in the end, that's why I'm going to include both Korver and Okur's salaries for the next season with regards to the Jazz. (And if either are opting out, they are both taking bad advice in my opinoin. And both are mis-reading the market particularly with so many teams having cap room, and dollars to spend in 2010, that they will have to spend up to a certain amount anyway. As far as I can tell, Okur and Korver have nothing to lose by waiting until 2010.
Mehmet Okur: 9,000,000
Kyle Korver: 5,338,636
Btw, for those keeping count, I've got the total salary the Jazz are looking at, up till now, and before you add in Okur or Korver, you have 35,124,040 committed between Kirilenko, Williams, Miles and Koufos. When you add Okur and Korver, you will get: 49,462,676. And, for those who aren't aware, every NBA team has to have a minimum of 13 players, and over 30 teams, there must be an average of 14 players on each roster. (I don't anticipate that to be a problem, but well, some teams only put 13 on their roster.)
The Matt Harpring Question, and everybody else while I'm at it
I suppose the question is: What is the nature of his buyout if the Jazz choose to exercise it. And if they don't, will they trade him to a team to get a player to replace him? Since I haven't been following the Jazz closely enough to know what kinda Minutes Harpring is getting, but surmising from the box score, he is still getting some. I can see the Jazz cutting him for the monetary savings, or the team may just cut him to save money. Who knows? I think a lot of that depends on what kind of contract Millsap can command. And what kind of takers the Jazz can find for another player like CJ Miles assuming they'd like to trade him. But, I'm going to assume Harpring's buyout is between 3.5 and 4 million, and I'm going to assume the Jazz may not cut him, and if that's the case, he's making 6.5 million next season. And, now, the total, assuming the Jazz don't cut him, is 55,962,676. That, still may be under the salary cap, and keep in mind, I haven't included all the cheaper guys. As my last line alluded to, you've got to include everybody else, but who is that? Almond has an option, and I'm not sure the Jazz have picked it up. But, according to Sham they did not. Which means he likely won't be on the team next season. Especially with another late 1st round pick they will need to sign. And with that late 1st round pick, that will likely add 1 to 1.3 million depending on where the Jazz finish the regular season. Between Ronnie Price, and Jarron Collins, I wonder who will stick around. Kryrlo Fasenko is another interesting question, and he has a team option for about 870K the Jazz will probably exercise, particularly if they need roster filler. So, after 8 players, you're looking at roughly 56,832,676 dollars. And, that's where the guessing game starts. ed note: I forgot to add Ronnie Brewer, and if you add his option year 1,156,920 to the total, what you have actually is: 57,989,596. Thanks to sherbs--Pookeyguru.
Do the Jazz re-sign Millsap or Boozer? I would think it would be Millsap for a variety of reasons. He's cheaper, and younger, not to mention healthier, and he doesn't give reasons for the fans to hate him yet. He also reminds folks in Salt Lake and yonder, that he has some Karl Malone abilities. I'm pretty sure that's not a bad thing. Let's say, the Jazz re-sign Millsap to a 5 year 50 million dollar contract. They space the contract with an increasing salary spread over the next 5 years, and start him around 8 million dollars. That means that the Jazz will have Millsap, with any combination of Collins, Knight, Price and the 1st rounder to re-sign to stay under the luxury tax. Do I think it's possible? I don't know. It's a tough under, but I know it's impossible to pull off for the Jazz if they try to keep Boozer and Millsap. (I also don't think the Jazz will try to attempt it to be honest. Btu that's a gut feeling based on circumstantial evidence.) So, what's your feeling? The Boozer question is fairly obvious, but what role players out there do you feel are irreplacable to this Jazz club? And, I suppose to not put too fine a point on it, would you prefer the Jazz to go over the luxury tax to re-sign all the role guys who have performed well for this team up to this point?
All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.
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There is also the salary of Ronnie Brewer to take into account, as his option was taken up earlier this year.
In regards to a buyout of Harpring, I think that his salary would still count against the salary cap even if he is bought out. The only way that it wouldn’t would be if his contract was cancelled in a similar way to the agreement that allowed Derek Fisher to leave.
I am not sure, but i thought the clause in his contract allowing the Jazz to cancel his contract, could only be exercised if he missed a certain number of games due to a knee injury. It has to be a knee injury as well, if he missed the entire season due to… i dont know, a back injury, the Jazz couldn’t cut him.
Given all the players that are likely to be resigned, and that one of Millsap and Boozer is going to be on the team next year, the Jazz are almost certain to be over the cap. I think there seems to be a lot of confusion from people who think that if Boozer does leave, the Jazz will be able to sign another free agent of similar calibre. As your number crunching indicates, they will likely be either over the cap, or very close to it if they sign Millsap, which will mean they will be unable to sign any big name free agents.
The 2009 draft pick is likely to go to the 76ers this year as part of the Korver trade, so that probably won’t be an issue anyway.
I wrote a post basically saying it would be great to go over the salary cap and resign both Booze and Millsap, as it is the only way I can see the Jazz having a realistic chance of winning a championship.
I think of the free agents, Knight is one I would like to see come back for a couple of years, and probably Ronnie Price as well. I think the general consensus is that Collins is not a player that will be resigned, and it also looks as though Almond is out the door next year. Which is a pity given his upside, although the Jazz obviously feel they have enough shooting guards with ‘potential’.
by sherbs on
Dec 24, 2008 2:44 PM MST
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Totally forgot about Brewer
I thought he was in there, but I forgot to lump him in with the option guys of next year. Whoops. Thanks for that correction.
I wrote a post basically saying it would be great to go over the salary cap and resign both Booze and Millsap, as it is the only way I can see the Jazz having a realistic chance of winning a championship.
Umm, the Jazz are over the salary cap. But I’m 99% positive you mean the luxury tax, so it’s not a big deal. I’m just pointing this out because I don’t want anyone confusing the two.
Interesting stuff, and is CJ MIles worth acquiring? (I wonder what people here think about him, because I’m writing a trade piece on StR at the moment, and MIles is the type of player the Jazz might make available to keep some of the clutter off the cap.) Thanks for sounding off. Good stuff.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Dec 24, 2008 3:41 PM MST
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Miles has shown flashes
but every time he makes one mistake Sloan benches him so it’s tough for me to give a thorough assessment.
Grammar is not a time of waste
by Patrick517 on
Dec 24, 2008 3:46 PM MST
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Fair enough
I would love the Kings to give Donte Greene mins anyways, so I’m not thrilled about a guy like CJ Miles anyway. But it’s interesting you say that, and it’s even more interesting the Jazz matched Miles offer from the Thunder. Either way, that makes sense. Thanks.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Dec 24, 2008 3:49 PM MST
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Unimportant, but
the first round pick will actually end up with the T-Wolves if we don’t keep it, after the Sixers & Wolves agreed to a trade (Rodney Carney was part of it, don’t remember much else).
And the way the season is currently playing out, the Jazz would indeed keep the pick (yeah, I know… injuries & half-the-season-left & blah blah blah)…
by UtesFan89 on
Dec 24, 2008 6:11 PM MST
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Ummm, what?
I never heard anything about a Jazz pick being included in that deal.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Dec 24, 2008 6:16 PM MST
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Yeah
that was the pick the Sixers dealt.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3480582
The first-rounder is one Philadelphia acquired in a trade with Utah for shooter Kyle Korver last season. The Wolves will get it if the Jazz pick lower than 22nd in 2009, 17th in 2010, 15th in 2011, 16th in 2012 or 16th in 2013.
by UtesFan89 on
Dec 24, 2008 6:39 PM MST
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Ah that makes sense
Thanx for the tip.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on
by pookeyguru on
Dec 25, 2008 11:56 AM MST
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yeah I did mean the luxury tax.. oops :) I always do that!
Umm, the Jazz are over the salary cap. But I’m 99% positive you mean the luxury tax, so it’s not a big deal. I’m just pointing this out because I don’t want anyone confusing the two.
by sherbs on
Dec 25, 2008 5:58 AM MST
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