Is this our 2009-10 team?

by Basketball John on Dec 9, 2008 9:28 AM MST

While we wait for Boozer to come back (probably Thursday), we're getting a good look at what a 2009-10 team could possibly look like. Has the team as constituted impressed you?

Right now the Jazz are 8-4 when Boozer plays and 5-5 without him. Granted, you have to factor in other injuries such as Deron's, Memo's, AK's... freak, has there been anyone without an injury?

Anyway...

The Jazz have a penchant for not rocking the boat too much. So let's just say that everyone comes back next year except for Boozer, Collins, and Almond. I'm sure there would be another rookie and a free-agent big man. But is this the team that can compete for a title?

Starters

Bench

Or does having Boozer instead of Millsap give us a better shot?

For the record, I'm squarely on the fence. I'm a more conservative guy, so I like Boozer because I know what he's going to give me every night. I know what I'm getting.

Millsap, while great, doesn't have the track record yet. But in his 9 games that he's started with Boozer out, he's averaging 17 & 11. But Millsap could be the second coming of Malone. Their careers closely mirror each other. Layden told Malone that they were going to trade Dantley and build the team around the Mailman, could a similar situation happen to Millsap?

Or do we keep both of them and trade AK? I think AK has proven his value to the team and need to stay. The $15M is still steep though. It would be crazy to see him finish out his contract here given his huge deal and all the drama that has happened the past couple of years.

Of course, there are a million difference scenarios between now and then. While the Jazz will try to keep as many as possible, they may not have a choice. I certainly don't envy Kevin O'Connors position.

So who's it going to be? Do you want Millsap? Boozer? Both?

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Plus Salary cap space

It would probably be a worse year without the Booze, however, Boozer leaving still doesn’t blow up our team, not by a long-shot. First of all, we have New York’s draft pick in 2010, which could be a very high pick. Second, we’ll have space to sign on a free agent, maybe one who wants a top 3 point guard to try and win a championship? We have Millsap at power forward and Okur, who we’ll likely retain, so naturally we’de pursue a shooting guard or center. Things could fall in place so I’m not totally worried, but in the end I’d like to keep Booze and hope to get a golden nugget from our draft pick from the Knicks.

by mcjazzman32 on Dec 9, 2008 10:38 AM MST reply actions

I think I wrote about this in the off-season but, we don’t have much cap space for 2009-10, even if Boozer walks. Let’s take a look at the guaranteed numbers for next season, courtesy of HoopsHype:

Andrei Kirilenko: $16,451,250
Matt Harpring: $6,500,000
Deron Williams: $13,785,000
Kyle Korver: $5,155,115 (Maybe – he has an early termination option for next season)
CJ Miles:$3,700,000
Ronnie Brewer: $2,717,161
Kosta Koufos: $1,214,040

That brings our total guaranteed salary to $49,522,566 ($50,392,566 if the Jazz pick up the option on Fesenko’s contract). The 2009-10 salary cap won’t be set until next off-season, but we can assume it’s going to be close to this year’s cap, $58.68 million. (Although, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the cap actually go down next season since it’s based on a percentage of basketball-related income, and by all account the economy is killing a lot of league revenue). That leaves the Jazz with rougly $8-9 million in cap room to resign Boozer, Okur and possibly Brevin Knight.

Boozer’s player option for next season is for $12,657,233. If we sign him to an extension that automatically brings our cap number for 2009-10 up to $62,179,99, and suddenly we’re out of cap room. (I’m assuming we don’t resign Fess) So, let’s pretend we don’t extend him, and he walks (Hello Miami!) We still would want to resign Memo. Well, Memo’s player option for next season is $9,000,000, bringing our cap number to $58,522,566 – nearly exactly the salary cap – and we haven’t even talked about new contracts for Korver and Millsap. So, now our teams consists of:

Andrei Kirilenko
Memo Okur
Matt Harpring
Deron Williams
Kyle Korver (Maybe – see above)
CJ Miles
Ronnie Brewer
Kosta Koufos

That’s only 9 players – the minimum number of players a team can have on it’s roster is 12, so we would need to find three minimum salary players to round out the roster, and that will definitely takes us over the cap.

If we don’t resign Boozer or Memo we’re looking at $8-9 million to sign a free agent. Courtesy of ESPN here’s a list of a free agents for 2009-10. With all due respect to Zaza Pachulia, I don’t see anyone on that list that would come close to duplicating, or exceeding the production that we get out of Memo and Boozer. That means the only option is to resign one of the two, or in a perfect world with no salary cap ramifications, both players. Since Boozer’s contract extension is potentially worth more money per-year I think you’ll see the Jazz go the fiscally prudent route, and resign Memo, letting Boozer walk.

I have a lot of respect for Kevin O’Connor, and what he’s done to keep the team competitive after Stockton and Malone left, but we’re in a very tough cap situation next season. I hope you like the name “Collins” because we may be seeing the twin towers on the floor alot next season if we need to fill out the roster with minimum salary players.

by kris247 on Dec 9, 2008 2:42 PM MST up reply actions

One thing

the number you need to be looking at is the luxury tax limit (closer to 75 million, I think)… not the salary cap limit.

You only have to pay extra if you cross the luxury tax limit, so the Jazz should be fine. I hope.

The Utah Jazz

by UtesFan89 on Dec 9, 2008 3:01 PM MST up reply actions

If the salary cap is about the same for the 2009-10 season as it is for this season that means the luxury tax will kick in around $71.150 million. By extending both Boozer and Memo our payroll for 2009-10 will be $71.18 millon – just slightly over the tax. And we’re still short two players to make the minimum roster requirements.

Further, you can only exceed the salary cap to resign your own player who have their Bird Rights. So, we can’t go out and sign a big name free agent next season if we sign either Boozer, Memo, or both. We’ll only have the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions. Which means we would likely loose Korver who will almost certainly command the full, or close to full, mid-level exception.

For the record, I would take Millsap over Boozer. His salary will be about half of Boozer’s, and I don’t think their production will be much different. Plus, I think you can play AK at PF, and slide Millsap down to SF. Or bring in Millsap off the bench as the anchor of the second unit.

by kris247 on Dec 9, 2008 3:28 PM MST up reply actions

With all due respect to Millsap

I don’t think we can win a championship without Boozer. His low post offense isn’t something that Sap, Memo, or even AK could replicate or at least compensate for. Booze is like that anchor guy that the entire team can base its offense around.

Even with that in mind, though, I think Millsap is the guy we should keep no matter what else happens with Booze, Memo, or Korver. He’s still young, and with his work ethic, he could turn into a Boozer-plus-defense before long.

I think this whole situation could be made easier if we just traded away Harpring for cap relief. He’s getting paid $6M to do what, rehab injuries and play relatively sub-par ball on the court?

by Vromanite on Dec 9, 2008 12:52 PM MST reply actions

We can't win a championship

with Booze getting hurt every 3rd week either.

And what Booze gets in the post offensively, he gives back on the other end.

The Utah Jazz

by UtesFan89 on Dec 9, 2008 5:39 PM MST up reply actions

Oh, and

I agree with you on No Knees.

The Utah Jazz

by UtesFan89 on Dec 9, 2008 5:39 PM MST up reply actions

Let's not forget....

Millsap’s Defense >>>> Boozer’s defense

At least that’s my opinion.

Grammar is not a time of waste

by Patrick517 on Dec 9, 2008 1:56 PM MST reply actions

that's the opinion of anyone with eyes.

by moni on Dec 9, 2008 5:30 PM MST up reply actions

Andrew Bynum

Watching him play last night made me appreciate Millsap’s effort on D even more.

Phil Jackson must be going soft. He never would have let Shaq get away with that kind of loafing around.

Grammar is not a time of waste

by Patrick517 on Dec 11, 2008 11:58 AM MST up reply actions

as everyone probably knows by now

i’m dead set AGAINST trading ak, and want to keep sap and memo.

sap isn’t boozer offensively, no question, and may never be. BUT, we should all remember that he’s only in his 3rd year, and has a ways to develop his game. plus, the "D"eficiencies in boozer’s game don’t justify his price tag.

by moni on Dec 9, 2008 5:34 PM MST reply actions