Ronnie Brewer- Free Agent?

With all the hubbub in the offseason about the Jazz bringing back players that we didn't expect to see in Utah any longer, one player's contract status has been brushed somewhat under the table.  I have no doubt that Ronnie Brewer's agent and the Utah Jazz organization have focused a great deal on Ronnie's future with the team, but unless a contract extension is reached in the next 4 days, Ronnie Brewer will become a restricted free agent and along with Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, and Kyrylo Fesenko will have started what could ultimately be his last season with the Utah Jazz.

This precious moment of Ronnie Brewer's brought to you by Olan Mills Photography.

The Jazz have played some hardball with their players lately.  Instead of just making financially lucrative offers to convince their players to stay in Utah, they have taken some chances and let the market dictate contracts.  With Carlos Boozer it paid off.  The Jazz now have him for a decent price in a contract year.  With Paul Millsap, the wait and see approach probably bit the Jazz in the behind to some degree.  I can't imagine that Paul Millsap wouldn't have signed a 5 year deal worth 8 million a year if the Jazz offered it to him.  I could be wrong.  But by waiting for an offer, the Jazz left the door open for the conniving Trailblazers to make Millsap an offer he couldn't refuse and hit the Jazz in the pocketbooks this season with the upfront signing bonus.  But I believe in Karma and I believe the Andre Miller situation is Karma's answer to Portland's legal, but still low, blow.  So stew on that, Blazer fans.

And as of October 26th, I see no reason to believe that the Jazz may take the wait and see approach on Ronnie Brewer.  I just can't decide if it is a smart move.  If Ronnie doesn't improve this season, then I think his offers will be moderate and probably in the $3-5 million/ year range.  Then the Jazz will be able to properly evaluate the situation and decide if matching the offer is a wise decision.  But, and this is a big but...if Ronnie Brewer improves into even an average shooter from the outside, he will have added that needed dimension to his game that could eventual propel him to all-star status and the Jazz may not be able to afford the offers that Brewer would garner in that scenario.   You may have laughed when I said that Brewer could become an All-Star, but Brewer scores 14 points a game off cuts to the basket and getting steals in the open floor.  If Ronnie became respectable enough from the outside that people had to guard him, he would easily score 20 points a game.  And I think that is what it would take for him to become an all-star, along with a few veterans to age and lose production.

And that is really what Ronnie Brewer's entire season, and to a degree his entire career, hinges on: his ability to develop a mid to long-range jumper.  It is the difference between him being the underrated contributor that he is now, and being a perennial all-star.

We already know that Ronnie B can do this...but can he do...

This?

Brewer has started off this season by hitting his jumpshot with some consistency.  Brewer shot 29-48 this preseason for better than 60% from the field  By my estimation, he also shot several jumpers and had some success with them.  He shot at least 40 % from shots that weren't dunks or layups.    He also took 7 three pointers and made 2 of them, but that isn't anything to get excited about.  Brewer's shooting has been very acceptable so far, but we have been down this road.  Last season he talked about his improved jumper and how it was his goal to improve it.  He even  started off the season by hitting some jumpshots.  But we all remember how the season ended with Kobe Bryant doubling down in the post and daring Ronnie Brewer to hit jumpers.  He didn't hit very many of them.  In fact, a detailed breakdown of Brewer's jumpshots from last season shows that he hit a lower percentage from 15-20 feet in 2008-2009, than in 2007-2008.  Not encouraging information.

Which brings us to this year.  Will Brewer develop a consistent outside jumper and take his game to the next level?  I don't know.  It is one of the great questions that will be answered this season.  But I do know that a lot of people will be in favor of letting Brewer move on if he doesn't.  Personally, I think Brewer is already more valuable to the Jazz than even the average Jazz fan realizes.  He isn't a shooter yet, but I think he has the best perimeter defensive tools on the team and that he is the best in the league at cutting to the basket without the ball.

But if I need to make a prediction about this season, I think that Brewer is going to get a lot of playing time for the first two months with CJ Miles and Kyle Korver injured.  And if he starts to shoot well and can be counted on to make free throws, then he is going to finish a lot more games than he has the last two seasons.  And that is how you will be able to tell if Jerry Sloan thinks Ronnie Brewer's offense has improved: does Brewer play at the end of games?  i don't think Brewer is going to turn into Ray Allen by any means.  And I also don't think he is going to start hitting the three point shot with any consistency.  But he looks more comfortable shooting jumpers than he ever has in his career and I expect him to improve and be able to hit an open jumper consistently.  And if that comes true, then the Jazz better have extended Brewer's contract and not allowed him to become a free agent.  We probably couldn't afford him anymore.