The Numbers

by Basketball John on Nov 12, 2009 12:22 PM MST

I emailed Mathletics. Asked what his numbers say is wrong with the Jazz. Here is his answer - Is it what you expected?

Here's what the guy behind mathletics has to say (click through for more),

AK 47 and Millsap have been fantastic, especially on defense.
Boozer, Brewer and Price have killed Jazz on defense.
Williams has keyed offense
Fesenko has played great and deserves more minutes. When he is in Jazz play 16 points better than average. [his emphasis]
In their limited time Maynor and Koufos have killed Jazz. The team plays 30 points (per 48 minutes) worse than average when either is in.

Like clarkpojo IMd me, we've been saying most of this on SLC Dunk for a while. 82games.com backs up what he says as well,

		Production			On Court/Off Court			Simple
Player	Min	Own	Opp	Net	On	Off	Net	Rating
Kirilenko	80%	18.0	13.4	+4.7	+4.0	-24.4	+28.4	+14.1
Fesenko	15%	17.7	12.0	+5.7	+16.7	-5.2	+21.9	+12.2
Williams	84%	21.8	20.2	+1.6	+2.4	-24.0	+26.4	+11.5
Matthews	31%	12.9	5.7	+7.3	-6.5	+0.2	-6.7	+1.7
Millsap	49%	12.4	15.5	-3.0	+0.6	-4.2	+4.8	+0.1
Koufos	5%	27.1	19.1	+8.0	-19.4	-0.9	-18.5	-2.6
Okur	60%	15.3	18.7	-3.4	-4.5	+2.1	-6.7	-4.7
Brewer	74%	12.8	17.0	-4.1	-3.8	+3.9	-7.7	-5.6
Boozer	73%	19.4	23.9	-4.5	-4.1	+4.2	-8.3	-6.0
Price	25%	8.7	25.0	-16.3	-10.3	+1.0	-11.3	-14.3
Maynor	5%	10.8	30.5	-19.8	-65.9	+1.4	-67.2	-38.7

First, I know Maynor hadn't been doing well, but that is amazing. No wonder Deron wanted to play last night despite the calf and the bad back.

And here's what they have for best floor units

Top Five-Man Floor Units

#	Unit	Min	Off	Def	+/-	W	L	Win%
1	Williams-Brewer-Kirilenko-Boozer-Okur	122.8	1.12	1.17	-11	4	2	66.6
2	Williams-Brewer-Kirilenko-Boozer-Fesenko	17.9	1.08	1.14	-2	1	1	50.0
3	Williams-Brewer-Kirilenko-Millsap-Boozer	17.5	1.19	1.19	-2	3	2	60.0
4	Williams-Matthews-Kirilenko-Millsap-Boozer	17.3	0.84	0.76	+3	3	1	75.0
5	Williams-Price-Kirilenko-Millsap-Boozer	14.6	1.25	0.82	+12	2	1	66.6
6	Williams-Brewer-Kirilenko-Millsap-Okur	14.3	1.04	0.66	+13	1	1	50.0
7	Williams-Matthews-Brewer-Millsap-Okur	13.3	0.93	1.00	-3	2	2	50.0
8	Price-Matthews-Kirilenko-Millsap-Boozer	10.0	1.11	0.91	+1	2	1	66.6
9	Williams-Brewer-Kirilenko-Boozer-Koufos	8.6	1.23	0.96	+4	1	0	100
10	Price-Matthews-Brewer-Millsap-Okur	7.0	1.01	0.87	+0	1	1	50.0

That's not a good sign when that starting unit is -11. Maybe start Millsap given that that lineup seems to work and then bring in Boozer for Millsap or Okur? Those lineups work as well.

Tweet Comment 17 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

AK has been awesome. He looks so confident on offense. I am sure ppl don’t cringe anymore when he shoots the ball. Not sure if he has been just as active on the Defensive side; but I don’t really care.

Actually, when watching the game, seems like Booz is doing more D than what the numbers say.

Fesenko has pontential but needs some encouragement and confidence. When he attacked the rim against Denver and dunked on Carmelo, it almost looked like Shaq in his prime. However, he is like the biggest goof and very close to a mentally challenged big person. I think the coaching staff should do something to make him a better player.

by iLoveBooks100per on Nov 12, 2009 12:44 PM MST reply actions

nothing too surprising here. Maybe with the exception of Memo.
Clearly something is not right with the unit that gets the most minutes is the worst unit assembled thus far. I think that shows the Jazz need a decent defensive presence from the PF or C position to compete.
Yet another collection of stats to show that Sloan needs to adapt. Won’t happen though.

by zdid on Nov 12, 2009 1:02 PM MST reply actions

i agree with more min for fess

fess and millsap are our best inside defenders.

is there another 20 10 guy that is as bad as boozer? zach randolph is the only other name that comes to mind.

by P_Dizzle on Nov 12, 2009 1:15 PM MST reply actions

Our starting unit...

…is -11!?!?! And they’re still on the floor the most? Jerry needs to bench Boozer. It’s painfully obvious now.

Whitewater In The Morning

by neff on Nov 12, 2009 1:31 PM MST reply actions

So essentially to go from the worst +/- to the best +/-, you simply switch Boozer for Millsap.

That is embarrassingly obvious. We saw it immediately last night in Boston and immediately in the 3rd quarter when Boozer went to the bench in Dallas.

The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.

by clarkpojo on Nov 12, 2009 1:52 PM MST reply actions

that's the first thing i looked for and saw from the 82games table as well

dwill-ak-memo-brewer + boozer: -11
dwill-ak-memo-brewer + millsap: +13

by moni on Nov 12, 2009 5:44 PM MST up reply actions

24 point swing.

wow! but it is blatantly obvious

by P_Dizzle on Nov 12, 2009 9:32 PM MST up reply actions

How about an Elton Brand experiment...

If we beat Sixers tonight, maybe we can pull off Boozer for Elton trade. Elton is 2Mill more but am sure we can add someone else to balance the trade.

Elton is not performing well. Maybe they’d be interested.

by iLoveBooks100per on Nov 12, 2009 2:29 PM MST reply actions

But...

Only problem is that Elton has a losing experience. A guy who is ok to lose is not ok with me or with DWill.

by iLoveBooks100per on Nov 12, 2009 2:30 PM MST up reply actions

I dont want Elton Brand either but,,,,

Garnett didn’t do much winning before he left Minny

by sherbs on Nov 13, 2009 4:52 AM MST up reply actions

No. That is a huge contract for a player that isn't any better. Same arguments about him. It would be like extending Boozer for 3 more years.

The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.

by clarkpojo on Nov 12, 2009 2:53 PM MST up reply actions

um...

.. he at least plays defense. i am actually ok with this. brand is another injury proned player tho. but hell at this point i don’t care who it is.

by P_Dizzle on Nov 12, 2009 3:01 PM MST reply actions

Maynor and Koufos

“In their limited time Maynor and Koufos have killed Jazz. The team plays 30 points (per 48 minutes) worse than average when either is in.”

This kind of statement shows one of the problems of misusing sports statistics.

First, the numbers are based on less than 30 minutes of total play for the season for Maynor and Koufos, combined. How can you compare the numbers of guys who have barely touched the ball to guys who are on the court for 25 – 36 min/game? These numbers were last updated 11/10.

Second, as has been mentioned many times, it is combinations of players that may be the problem. A lot of people pointed out that Maynor and Price play poorly together, well this probably is true and reflects badly on their statistics so far.

The statement “First, I know Maynor hadn’t been doing well, but that is amazing. No wonder Deron wanted to play last night despite the calf and the bad back.” is pure stupidity. This seems to imply that Deron himself is some sort of statistical geek who also applies erroneous wanker extrapolations to understand the game, and makes decisions accordingly.

The individual numbers will be more useful later in the season, but even then they may not fairly compare starters to noon-starters, and are probably most useful for looking at the success of combinations of players.

For example, did the Jazz “get killed” in the 4th quarter when Maynor was in against the Celtics? No, they had a net gain of 2 points. According to the 30point/48minute loss predicted above, they should have suffered a loss of 7.5 points in the 4th quarter with Maynor in.

When did the jazz get killed? Well they lost 14 points in the 1st five minutes, if my memory serves me.

They were going to lose this game anyway. They should have played Williams less and let him rest and get well. I doubt they would have done worse if Maynor had started, but I also don’t think that guy has developed the strength or stamina to play the whole game. That’s another issue…

by zed1 on Nov 13, 2009 7:33 AM MST reply actions

Erroneous wanker extrapolator here

First, welcome to the Dunk.

Second, the comment of “pure stupidity” was more tongue in cheek than anything. Of course Deron doesn’t make decisions after looking at stats like that.

If you’ll go back and read some of the other stuff here, we all love Eric Maynor. I think he’s going to be at least a very good backup in the league to a solid starter some day.

30 minutes isn’t going to tell you what’s going to happen over the course of the season, I know that. But what it has shown so far is that he hasn’t played that well when he’s been in. There could be a bunch of reasons for that. One could be the players that he’s with. Another could be that he’s not playing summer league/pre-season any more and that the talent level is up a notch now.

So stick around. Maynor is going to get his first start tonight. We’ll see what he can do.

SLCDunk.com, The Utah Jazz on SBNation

by Basketball John on Nov 13, 2009 9:24 AM MST up reply actions

Meta-extrapolator

Thanks and sorry if I sounded harsh, a friendlier spirit was intended there! Hopefully Maynor won’t crump, and my thoughts are with Williams, like everyone I wish him a speedy recovery and rapid return to action, along with everyone else who’s licking wounds.

by zed1 on Nov 13, 2009 10:04 AM MST reply actions