The Downbeat - 1 December 2009 - #112 - The PER Edition
by Basketball John on Dec 1, 2009 10:02 AM MST
in The Downbeat
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Here's why PER (John Hollinger's efficiency tool) gets me sometimes. There's no doubt the contributions that Wes Matthews has made to the team. He gives us an outside shooter, someone that can penetrate the offense, and he's playing pretty good D.
Where a PER rating of 15 is an average NBA player, Wesley scores a 9. Here's a list of similarly ranked guards from this season with at least 9 games.
From what I understand of PER, it looks like his lack of rebounding, assists, and steals. First, he should be rebounding some more and Kevin O'Connor stated on Locke's show that Sloan has said as much. The assists are going to be hard to bring up with his position on the team. He has passed the ball a lot more the past couple of games though. And steals aren't necessarily indicative of good defense.
Are there many from that list above Matthews that you would rather have? If you just take into account the rookies that have played in at least 9 games, Matthews is on the bottom of the list.
But if you watch him each night, I think you would see the value that he brings.
Maynor by the way is at 15.2 and ranked 7th among rookies.
With CJ set to come back on Friday and Korver's return coming soon after that, are we going to see the team get thrown off a bit? Someone's minutes are going to have to go down and it will likely be Matthews. How long is going to take to get them going again? Does Matthews make Korver a trade piece? I don't think he's going to return much by himself, he'd have to be packaged with someone.
Speaking of trades, at this point, I'm firmly in the "They're not going to trade Boozer" this season camp. First, the team is playing so well now and Boozer's one of the biggest reasons for that. He's been unwordly. They're only going to trade him for equal value at this point and they're not going to get that now.
Second, the longer we go without a trade, the likelihood of a trade happening diminishes. The reason is that making changes later in the season decreases the time that a new teammate would have to mesh and gel with the team on the court.
What worries Jazz fans is that we've never had an explanation of what caused the horrendous slide to close out last season. It was the same team that we had that tore it up to close out the 2008 season. And for now, the Jazz are looking like that team. What's in the back of every Jazz fan's mind is is that going to happen again? Because if a slide like that does happen after we could have traded Boozer, we'll have let Boozer walk without getting value in return (other than his money coming off the books) and we'll have lost another year of Deron.
At this point, the Jazz are going to have to be bowled over with an offer to part with Boozer.
If you'd like to win some of Deron's stuff, head to his website for his 25 days of Christmas giveaway. You have to sign up each day.
The Jazz are off until Friday, FRIDAY! Man, it's going to be a long week.
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I think Matthews makes Miles, Not Korver expendable. Matthews is the same type of player as CJ, only he does more things right on a more consistant basis. Korver is deadly from the perimeter when healthy (he wasn’t healthy all last year, so it doesn’t count), plus Kyle can energize the crowd better than almost anyone, and he puts people in the seats.
The reason they had that fall apart last year was because of lack of chemistry by the core of players on the team. Your starters can’t miss that many games and then get together fr the last month of the season and kill it. It just doesn’t work that way.
by Theagreement on Dec 1, 2009 10:20 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
With the chemistry though
They had played together for a long time before that. It didn’t seem to be on-court chemistry, it seemed to be locker room stuff. With the same team as we had then, what’s to stop it from happening again?
by Kris Loertscher on Dec 1, 2009 11:09 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Couldn't disagree more...
If Matthews can keep his level of play up, there is no doubt in my mind that K O’C will be looking to deal Korver in some sort of package with Hapring’s contract. Both are expiring deals that teams would LOVE to have going into the best FA class of my lifetime.
In regards to the chemistry issue, Korver was acquired in late December a few years back and the Jazz went on an absolute tear. I don’t think they will have an issue “gelling” with a new teammate.
8 Hours To Kill is now on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/8hourstokill
by BC7 on Dec 1, 2009 10:24 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Korver was a small but significant piece
If they traded Boozer for someone of similar talent, that’s a much bigger cog in the system. Millsap would start at the 4 and with the new player being a wing or other big man, does that shake things up too much?
by Kris Loertscher on Dec 1, 2009 11:11 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
Trading Booze isn’t quite the same as trading Gira.
"We got to change something bc what we doing ain't working right now!" - DWill
by Vromanite on Dec 1, 2009 11:18 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
8.
There is almost no chance that Booze gets traded before the deadline unless, like you said, they get an unbelievable offer. The problem is that for however bad the Jazz’s team salary looks this year, next year’s looks almost as bad. AK and Memo alone are going to cost over $28MM combined in ‘10-’11. That makes it hard for the Jazz to take on anything but expiring contracts in a Boozer trade. And if they’re just going to end up with expiring contracts anyways, why not just keep Boozer? No one will probably play as well with the team as Boozer’s doing as of late.
"We got to change something bc what we doing ain't working right now!" - DWill
by Vromanite on Dec 1, 2009 10:41 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
PER is alot of nonsense.
It is useful as a stat to look at like any other stat, but what it is not is objective like Hollinger would like everyone to think. It is a combination of stats that are weighted subjectively… by Hollinger! Meaning, what stats count most in his weighted formula are whatever he (he with no coaching or playing experience) decided should count most. And then he talks as if it is the final word on analyzing players. I like his articles, but he is much over-rated statistician an egotist. Players with immense value to winning, players like Bruce Bowen, Shane Battier, and Raja Bell, always have bad PERs. And those are the players that Mathews is most similar to. Meanwhile, clueless losers like Z-Bo have good PERs.
Furthermore, Mathews does make Korver expendable… but not this year. Korver will be caught in a numbers game and we won’t pay the luxury tax to keep him with Mathews playing this well for cheap. Also, if we make a big trade this year, I expect CJ or even Brewer to be part of the package… as that is what the other team will bargain towards… especially if we deal for a swingman.
by Frank5 on Dec 1, 2009 11:14 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
It's not nonsense
It just isn’t a good way to rank a players whose best asset is his defense. Look at the three players that you have mentioned above, Bowen, Bell & Battier, all great defenders, not exactly offensive stars…
It is a good stat for ranking players by their offensive numbers, but defense is much harder to come up with statistics for… Unfortunately for Matthews, he is similar in some ways to a Battier in that he is a good defender and a reliable shooter, but isn’t going to give you 10 assists every game….
by sherbs on Dec 1, 2009 3:06 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
It is nonsence relative to the weight people give it.
All he is doing is adding up stats (including percentages), giving them various weights based on his idea of what makes a good player, and normalizes it so the average player is 15. But you almost get the same ranking of players by straight adding up points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. It’s not the magic he implies it is. Is it nice to have someone crunch those things so we don’t have to? Yeah, of course – but it basically just tells us what we already know – who the big stat players are.
by Frank5 on Dec 1, 2009 4:59 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
CJ has the highest ceiling of the bunch
IS he even as old as Matthews? Aren’t they both like 22? Miles is the most athletic of the group. He’ll never shoot as well as Korver, but he can shoot well enough to keep a defense honest, but he can also develop into a defensive stopper (if he decides to) and he is a drive threat, a fast break threat, an alley-oop threat. That makes him a better asset in my mind than Korver – if you had to decide. It sure is nice having Korver in the last two minutes of a tight game for free throws. Let’s let Miles grow up before dealing him.
I'll make it coach.
by MTN on Dec 1, 2009 12:29 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
At Some Point
He’s gotta prove it. This will be his fifth year in the league, and we’re still talking about his potential. I know he’s only 22, he’s been saddled with injuries, and Sloan is ridiculously slow to develop young players, but if he’s ever going to be anything more than Quincy Lewis he’s gotta step up his game and prove that he has as much talent as hype. (And, yeah, I know that’s a unfair comparison, but for three years the Jazz organization raved about QL’s potential).
by kris247 on Dec 1, 2009 4:11 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it was supposed to be this year
lots of momentum in the offseason – good vibes – and then a stupid injury. I think he’s going to have a good season. I hope so.
I'll make it coach.
by MTN on Dec 1, 2009 4:27 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
oh,and I almost forgot...
…Boozer can play.
I'll make it coach.
by MTN on Dec 1, 2009 1:17 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Totally confused.........
8. Off season I wanted Boozer gone. Start of season nothing changed, get him out of here. I thought that maybe he’d get his 20/10 and they could trade him for equal value.
Now he’s playing at that level but all of a sudden he decides to step into passing lanes, block shots and put guys on their ass instead of giving up a easy 2 or a +1.
With a big body like Fes in the middle instead of Okur/Millsap he looks like an allstar.
Will he keep playing like this or was it a one off?
Speaking of Fes, did he use every move in his repertoire yesterday or what? Up and under, pro hop, left hand finish, shot fake & drive, one hand hammer!
His freethrows look good, could he consistently knock down a 15ft jumper from a pick and roll?
Or did I just have a dodgy stream yesterday!!
"He is STUPID but he knows that he is STUPID and that almost makes him smart."
by LoWBlok on Dec 1, 2009 4:50 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Fess was playing out of his head
As far as trades this year. I don’t think the Jazz trade Boozer at all this year. I bet we trade CJ Miles though. Like has been mentioned KK, Boozer, Harpring all come off the books this year so I don’t think we trade them. However, Miles signed that contract last year and IS on the books for next year. Does anyone know the deal with Memo signing an extension, can he be traded this year and if so when?
I think Andrei, Memo and Miles are the most likely to be traded and I think they would do it for expiring contracts. And I would actually be ok with that. Well maybe I wouldn’t for AK but Miles I am ok trading him for a bag of dirty socks.
I do think though that the Jazz front office would take a long contract if it is for a “core” guy. Just bring in “pieces” to build around your core guys
by P_Dizzle on Dec 2, 2009 7:59 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
The Jazz can trade Memo at any time.
Most of the time when you hear about the difficulty trading a player who has recently signed an extension is because that player qualifies as “Base Year Compensation” (BYC) player. That basically means that the extension awards a raise of more than 20% to the player. The combat a potential loophole in the CBA the salary of a BYC player (for trade purposes) is actually calculated for less than what they will receive. (This prevents teams from signing a player to an arbitrary amount on a one-year contract to fulfill the salary requirements in a trade.)
Since Memo’s extension is for less than 20% he doesn’t qualify as a BYC player. So, there’s no restrictions on trading him. The difficulty in trading Memo would be finding a team that wants to be on the hook for $30 million over the next three years for a border-line All-Star. I hate to say that any player is untradeable — Jerome James, Stevie Franchise and Zach Randolph have all been traded multiple times after being considered “untradeable” — but given the current economic climate, decreasing salary cap, and amount of money and years left on Memo’s contract, he’s pretty darn close to untradeable.
by kris247 on Dec 2, 2009 8:49 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Memo?
This hot streak seems to have happened with various line ups that haven’t featured Memo as much. I remember a lineup the other night that didn’t have a traditional center or Maybe Booz as the center. What’s Memo’s story as it relates to team chemistry, leadership, overall attitude? Does he disappear sometimes, mentally, physically? How is he in the locker room? I love his game when he is on, but what happens when he doesn’t get to play his game or the game doesn’t go through him as much?
by dagdajones on Dec 2, 2009 8:06 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
MTN's wife had a baby boy this a.m.
no games tonight though, so I don’t know what to do with my one night of cable TV.
BTW, wasn’t MNF glorious! Who Dat! Brees for President. Let’s trade Boozer for Brees.
I'll make it coach.
by MTN on Dec 2, 2009 10:09 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Congrats
Name? John? Karl? Jerry? DeShawn?
by Basketball John on Dec 2, 2009 10:14 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Methuselah
Meth for short. (Actually, we are notorious for taking a long time to name our kids…last one took 10 days.)
Remember when Andre Owens played for the Jazz a couple years ago? We had Miles, Owen and Harper and I should have bought Miles, Owen and Harpring jerseys.
Fes? Koof? Duh-RON?
I'll make it coach.
by MTN on Dec 2, 2009 10:16 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
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