THANKS GOLDEN STATE! : Let the trade season begin
by clarkpojo on Dec 16, 2009 9:45 AM MST
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I say we trade for this guy.
December 15th, the first day that most offseason free agent signings can legally be traded, came and went without a single trade. But even more important to a frenzied trade season was this report by yahoo sports Adrian Wojnarowski. Other sources have confirmed Wojnarowski's report that no one on the Warriors' payroll is untouchable now and this surely will get GM's calling the Golden State constantly making offers for Warrior players, because no team has young talent that is currently being misused like the Warriors have.
I haven't been able to find this anywhere else, but ESPN insider says "Carlos Boozer, Caron Butler, Tyrus Thomas and David West were all mentioned by league executives as potential trade targets for the Warriors."
Seriously? The Warriors would have interest in Carlos Boozer? Well where do we sign? There are some hiccups to making a deal with the Golden State Warriors, but it appears that right now is the right time to strike a deal, while the iron is hot and the GS front office is scrambling. But take a look at Golden State's payroll via hoopshype.com.
The main problem is that the young players like Anthony Randolph and Anthony Morrow are in their rookie pay scales, so it is hard to match up with their circa million dollar contracts. But the Warriors also have Andris Biedrins and his $9 million contract to throw into a deal. It is well documented that Biedrins is expendable, since he has been rumored in several deals the last two offseasons.
The other problem is that the Warriors would want to bring back not only a good player, but a player who is likely to stick around after this season, so trading for a player who becomes a free agent next season is a very risky move for the Ws.
But you have to think that the Jazz could be players in this type of a deal if they wanted to be, and I emphasize the term, 'if they wanted to be." I can't imagine that the Warriors wouldn't be interested to some degree in Carlos Boozer, Andrei Kirilenko or any one of our shooting guards, especially defensive-minded Ronnie Brewer.
So let your imaginations run wild. Come up with your best trade offer. I would trade Carlos Boozer for Anthony Randolph and Andris Biedrins in a heartbeat. If that wasn't enough, how about Carlos Boozer and Ronnie Brewer for Biedrins, Randolph, and Speedy Claxton's expiring contract? I am currently salivating. If we traded with the Warriors we could get better now and for the future. Leave your thoughts.
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No way I would trade Boozer for spare parts of any kind. We already have role players, and this team needs leadership. If an offer comes along that includes an All-Star caliber player like a sign and trade deal for Bosh (I can dream can’t I?) then do it. Otherwise, keep Boozer. Dealing him for three or four role players will be a step in the wrong direction, and we don’t need players with upside either. We need established leadership.
THe alternative is to watch him walk at the end of the season
and watch him watching offensive players as they pass him in the lane all the rest of this year.
I'll make it coach.
Uhhhh...
Have you been watching him play this year? His defensive ratings accross the board are up. He’s not just letting players walk around him.
And yes, him walking next summer will free up cap room and allow the Jazz to spend it where they need it as opposed to taking on role players with contracts that wont expire next summer. At least with keeping Booz and letting him walk you can see a light at the end of the financial tunnel, plus you have arguably the best power forward in the game for the rest of the year. You control your destiny that way. If you trade for role players, you are committing yourself to mediocrity. Let Booz walk, or resign him. Trade AK if it comes down to that and go after some experienced leadership. The excuse that Boozer is horrible on the defensive end and doesn’t deserve his contract doesn’t work any more.
by Theagreement on Dec 16, 2009 12:48 PM MST up reply actions
Well I guess you can technically argue about anything.
If Boozer is arguably the best power forward in the game than Wesley Matthews is arguably the best defensive player in the league. Boozer is playing some of his best ball of his career, but you can’t definitively say that he is the reason the Jazz win, or even that he is better at helping the Jazz win than the people who would replace him. In fact, most of the stats that matter show that the Jazz have a better chance at winning when Boozer isn’t on the floor. I know you will pshaw at that, but it is the truth.
And I would love, LOVE, to see where you are getting your defensive stats that are up for Boozer. He has played good defense at times, but it is still a point of contention. The Jazz need length and interior defense. Biedrins and to an extent, Randolph would give us that. To be a good low post defender, you have to either have long arms, have great footwork, or else use your body to keep people out of their offensive position. Boozer has or uses NONE of those things.
And I suggest you get familiar with the collective bargaining agreement. If Boozer walks, then the Jazz will still have no cap space. So they will be able to use their MLE (about 5 million a year) or else re-sign Boozer, or else use him in a sign and trade in order to add people to the team. But if the Jazz are going to be fiscally conservative, they will just let Boozer walk and add minimum contracts.
But the biggest tell against Boozer is that he is playing his best basketball right now and the Jazz still aren’t any better than any of the previous years. Is he a leader? You seem to think so. Is it because he laughs and high fives his teammates? Is it because he whispers to Deron Williams? Give me game tape of Boozer going all out for an entire fourth quarter, or even talking about winning being more important than anything. Then we can talk leadership.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
I think I’m going to write an article about the Jazz salary cap situation for next season. But, you hit the basics right there: even if Boozer, Korver, Fesenko, and Matthews all walk at season’s end , the Jazz will be on the hook for more than $57 million next year. The Jazz could renounce their rights to Brewer and save $3.8 million, but that seems unlikely. Plus, the Jazz will have a pretty substantial cap hold for what will likely be a top-5 lottery pick.
The only way the Jazz are going to get real cap flexibility is to trade AK ($17.8 million in 2010-11) or Okur ($10.5 million in 2010-11). Well, they could move Deron and save nearly $15 million next season, but that seems very, very, very, VERY unlikely.
Your proposed trade (Boozer for Randolph/Bierdins) works under the CBA, but it increases Utah’s 2010-11 payroll to nearly $70 million, and puts them on the hook for the remaining $36 million over the next four years on Bierdins’ contract. While I don’t think the Jazz organization has publicly said they’re in cost cutting mode, I can’t imagine they’d be willing to add that much payroll for a player who isn’t even a borderline All-Star. (Although, I will concede he’s amazingly effective, especially since Nelly seems to have no place for a center in his system).
I agree that the Jazz aren't going to keep that kind of money longterm.
But in my mind the Jazz would have an option of keeping either Biedrins or Okur longterm. What if Biedrins comes in and is the defensive stopper we have been looking for? Then his $9 million a year, which doesn’t increase looks pretty nice. I think after this season you can trade either Okur or Biedrins away for cap room. There will be lots of teams out there who have cap space and won’t end up landing one of the coveted free agents who would probably jump at the chance to acquire Biedrins or Okur for a second round pick and/or a cheap contract.
It’s slightly risky just in case no one can or wants to take Biedrins, but I don’t think it is as risky as signing a guy like Boozer or Elton Brand to a max contract. Biedrins contract is reasonable and I still think he is a good center.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
My concern is that Bierdins might come in and stink it up. I disagree with you, and don’t think his contract is very reasonable. He’s been injured this entire season, and was diagnosed with osteitis pubis – a use injury affecting the pelvis – which limits his ability to run, move laterally jump, etc. All things you want your athletic shot blocking center to do. If he comes to Utah and is limited by injury for the entire season the Jazz are going to have a hard time moving his contract in the off season.
I’ll have to look at the cap situation for the other 29 teams, but I don’t think there are too many teams who will have the cap space necessary to absorb the entire cost of Okur or Bierdins’s contract, allowing them to trade back only picks. The only teams that come to mind with that kind of flexibility are New York and Miami, and I can’t imagine either of those teams would settle for Bierdins after chasing after the likes of LeBron and Bosh. (I’d sure hate to be the PR wonk that would have to spin that trade!)
I was just going to say that you should definitely write a piece on the cap situation.
I understand the cap pretty well, I feel, but it is always nice to have other guys to bounce cap thoughts off of. And you have come through well again with a differing viewpoint.
As for 2010 salaries. Let’s just say that the cap is at $58 million again.
Atlanta- $11 million in free space
Chicago- $21 million
Cleveland- $25 million if Lebron leaves
Detroit- $7 million
Houston- $18 million
LAC- $19 million
Memphis $11 million
Miami $34 million
Minnesota $23 million
NJ $33 million
NY $ 31 million
OKC $21 million
Pho- $13 million if Amare opts out
Por- $17 million
Sac $17 million
Tor $12 million when Bosh opts out
Now obviously most of those teams have other plans or don’t need centers, but that is a lot of teams who are going to have some money to spend and centers are always in demand.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
Awesome.
Thanks for pulling that together – I didn’t realize how many teams were that far under the cap. I knew there would be a lot, but I didn’t expect it to be nearly half the league. I sure am glad that we’ll be likely be paying the tax next season. :P
Have you noticed that HoopsHype and ESPN’s TradeMachine report different amounts for player salaries? Most of the time it’s pretty close, but sometimes you’ll come across a player with a huge discrepancy. For example, HoopsHype lists Quentin Richardson’s contract at $9,352,500, while ESPN lists it as $8,700,000. That’s a pretty big difference when you’re trying to calculate the 125% rule of the CBA.
Thanks be to Lebron, Wade and Bosh for teams planning for this day for two or three seasons.
And yes, I did notice the discrepancy, although I think I figured out why one time. I will have to reremember. It’s guesswork to some degree because the NBA doesn’t release official salaries, but from my small detective work, I believe that hoopshype is the most correct.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
If I had to guess, it would be that HoopsHype includes “unlikely bonuses” in the calculations – stuff like Q making the All-Star team, etc – whereas the ESPN numbers are just straight salary.
I’ll drop an e-mail to the HoopsHype guys. Maybe I’ll get a response.
Good thinking. Never thought to go to the source for the info.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
On monday night
I watched in person as he let D-will chase Flynn all by himself several times over never giving any help D. If his defensive ratings are up, I’d like to see what that means – what kinds of stats. As we’ve discussed in some other places, his rebounds are inflated because they’re not, for lack of a better term, “quality rebounds.” Is there a defensive rating for "swiping at the ball carrier with your arms (known in little league as “reaching in” instead of sliding your feet in front of the pathway"? If not, his “defensive ratings” are also inflated.
I'll make it coach.
You're Right Clark and MTN...
I can’t say that Boozer is the definite reason why the Jazz have been winning, but there are a whole lot of reasons (and data) that suggests he is a huge part of why they have been. I love the Carlos Boozer witch hunt arguments though…it always makes me laugh when people say things like “he is getting a lot of rebounds, but they aren’t quality rebounds” what does that even mean? if Carlos is racking up some kind of rebound that others in the league somehow haven’t figured out, than I guess he is a whole lot smarter than you or I have given him credit for. A rebound is a rebound. If he is trying hard to grab them, then why is his average so high? Do you see how competitive it is down in the paint? Are you really suggesting that somehow Booz is positioning himself to get easier rebounds? Really? And as far as the MLE is concerned, that is why I said dump AK if it is neccessary. His contract is the real noose around Utah’s throat, not Boozer’s.
In any case, I was just as mad about Boozer’s actions as anybody else to start the season, but give credit where credit is due. If you are going to argue that our interior D is the biggest issue with this team, then look to trade Memo. I love him, but his D is way worse than Boozer’s, and he is not nearly the offensive threat.
As far as defensive stats go, his defensive rebounds and blocks are at the highest levels they have been since he’s been in Utah, and his steals per game are a tenth of a point off of his career high. Maybe Carlos has also figured out how to get blocks and steals that are not “high quality” as well, but regardless, they are up. Not at great levels, but definitly not poor.
Again, this team needs leadership, and if you have to package AK, CJ, or any other of our role players to get it, so be it. I guess if you did that, you could afford a max contract for Bosh, right?
And by the way, the Jazz are 7-3 over their last ten, would be 9-1 if it weren’t for Minni, and I’d say that’s pretty damn good. Room for improvement? Yes, but don’t deny that this team hasn’t been on a tear since Boozer started playing well in mid-November.
by Theagreement on Dec 16, 2009 3:13 PM MST up reply actions
And that is what I would like to see.
Show me some data that suggests that Boozer is the answer for the Jazz or his impact on the team. I am not witch hunting Carlos, but most of the “data” actually suggests that Millsap may be using his minutes more effectively than Boozer. I don’t care about rebounds and points. I want the guys on the floor who are going to help the Jazz win games.
As for your 7-3 comment. The Jazz are playing at home. Seven and 3 isn’t pretty damn good. It’s pretty good to pretty mediocre for the level of competition they have been playing at home. This team is on track to win 45 games this season if you factor in the games on the road that are still left to be played. Unless you think Korver and Miles are going to save the team, 45 wins is pretty damn mediocre.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
What are you looking for?
You can look at +/- stats and figures like Hollinger’s PER all day long, but when it comes down to it, when you watch them play games, who has been the difference maker for this team? Over analyzing the subject will never give you as good of an answer as just opening your eyes and watching them play. Boozer has been playing extremely well, and if the Jazz drop him for role players, they will definitely be a 45 win team, possibly worse. And if you take out the first five-ten games of the season when this team was getting its issues figured out, they are more like a 50-55 win team, which should be good enough to be within striking distance of a second or third seed. Pretty damn good. And four of the last seven wins have been against Portland, LA, Orlando, and San Antonio. SA might be on the outside looking in here, but the rest will certainly be in the contender conversation come April. So I don’t care if the Jazz beat them at home or not. If the Jazz truly are “mediocre” then contending teams should be able to handle them wherever they play. Do they need to beat seven or eight playoff teams in a ten game span in order to not be considered mediocre? Because if so, you are not going to get that in this or practically any other season.
I’m sorry, but complicated formulas that are heavily weighted to be biased in an arbitrary facet of the game do not interest me. I have a feeling they don’t interest the coaches either, since Boozer will most likely be an All-Star this year-Maybe that is because he has been dominating their teams on a consistent basis. I don’t know.
by Theagreement on Dec 16, 2009 4:34 PM MST up reply actions
Who has been the difference maker for this team? Paul Millsap, the guy who gets defensive stops and starts 4th quarter runs with great blocks.
Which is better, crunching the numbers on a game, or else watching the game itself to get an idea of how the game is being played? The answer is both. You can’t only do one or the other. And if you watch the game you also have to know what to look for.
I was serious when I said Millsap is the difference maker. Watch him closely sometime. He is the reason that Boozer and Okur can even be on the court sometimes. He is mobile and can make switches successfully and he challenges shots.
But analyzing stats isn’t important or weighing a players value to a team. That is probably why the Jazz were so excited to sign Boozer to a contract extension and why they didn’t match Millsap’s contract knowing that they had Boozer here with them. The team and especially the management know that Millsap is the player they want. How do you think they came to that conclusion?
And I love your argument about their wins pace. If only you don’t count the first 5-10 games? I could say that about the last 5-10 games. Win streaks and losing streaks even themselves out. The Jazz will win 45-50 games this year with this team, because it does matter if you beat teams at home or not, when you are the Jazz. They have had win streaks like last weeks against good teams, EVERY SEASON the last 3 or 4 years. Even last season when they won 48 games and were a mediocre team.
And Boozer being an all-star is awesome. Maybe he will start alongside Tracy McGrady, Allen Iverson and other awesome NBA players.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
I’ll just say this and then drop this conversation so that you can get the last word in (you seem like THAT type of guy). I wasn’t saying just drop the first few games of the season, I was indicating that you should take it into context with where we currently are. There has been a certain amount of growth with this team, and I fully expect them to keep up their current pace. Sure their will be ups and downs, but if they stay injury free, I expect them to continue to improve. But just for the sake of agreeing, I’ll go along with you with the “on pace” argument. The Jazz have won 66% of their games which would put them at 54 wins this year if they stay on that pace. You can argue that down to 45 wins if you want, but I’m not “the sky is falling” type, so I’ll stick with above 50 wins and you can stick with below 50. Pessimists and optimists I guess.
And the only way Boozer would be in the same class as AI and TMac is if he were voted in. But-gasp-the coaches who know way more about the game than either of us will most likely pick him. Hmmm, why would they do that? Maybe you should try and contact each of them so that you can throw out silly “baseball” statistics to try and prove to them that Boozer isn’t actually a 20-10 guy, but that he is somehow faking it.
Say what you want, but give credit where credit is due. Anytime a guy can shoot at a 71% clip after taking 14 shots while also grabbing 10 boards like CBooz did last night, he deserves a measure of respect. He may not be perfect in every area, but what player is? But what he is good at, he is REALLY good at. He is the best scorer on the team, and he is a go-to guy in the paint on offense. Millsap has not proven that he can be that guy yet. Boozer has, over and over and over again. I love Paul, but his game is different than Boozer’s, and again, if you are so concerned about the defense in the paint, you should advocate that the Jazz dump Memo. Memo and Boozer are both primarily offensive players, but Boozer is a better one, and Memo plays worse D than Carlos. It seems you just don’t like Boozer, and that is swaying your opinion. In any case, I’m out…thanks for your thoughts.
by Theagreement on Dec 17, 2009 8:59 AM MST up reply actions
I’m sorry, I was looking at the wrong numbers. They have won 60% so “on pace” would be 50. Again, pessimists and optimists…
by Theagreement on Dec 17, 2009 9:27 AM MST up reply actions
I completely agree with you that Okur needs to take a lot of blame for the Jazz's defensive deficiencies this season.
That is why I would trade Boozer for Okur’s backup/eventual replacement. I think I would rather have Biedrins/ Fesenko next season and trade Okur for cap relief (as mentioned further up the thread). It’s a fair argument. and I have nothing personal against Boozer, but the Jazz can’t afford him any longer. His production isn’t worth the contract he will desire.
And if you are fine with 49.2 wins, which is what the Jazz are on pace for, then good. Sixth seed in the playoffs is fine by me too.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
on "quality rebounds"
elsewhere on the blog, there was some discussion about how many of Boozer’s rebounds come after 2nd quarter free throws when the team shooting the free throw has already retreated for D. Also, how many times Boozer seems to be taking the rebound from a teammate rather than an opponent. Granted, it’s anecdotal, but it’s the preponderance of those instances that leads us to the idea of a “quality rebound.” By contrast, it SEEMS that many of Millsap’s rebounds are fought for, hustled for, not ‘earned’ simply by being the lowest on the block during the free throw.
The biggest frustration about Boozer is that we have seen him fight for rebounds – recall the Houston series game 7 a few years back – so we know he’s capable. But he seems content to get the rebounds that are going our way anyway – rebounds that don’t really constitute an extra possession earned.
I hope it’s clearer what we meant by “quality rebound.”
I'll make it coach.
i say we just stand pat
We’re still young, and I want to see what this team can do when healthy.
—KOC
[Typist stabs eyeballs with flaming hot pokers]
by Juan B on Dec 16, 2009 11:15 AM MST via mobile reply actions
I need to read what I write before I post...
I’m sorry, I meant to refer to cap space, not the mid-level exception.
Salary
Correct me if I’m wrong, but after this season the Jazz have potentially 28 million dollars in salary coming off the books (Booz, Korver, Harpring, Ronnie B. and Fess). I think the Jazz would definitely want to keep Ronnie and Fess, but even if they let everyone go the -28 mil still doesn’t take them below the current salary cap (they are +33 mil currently), and the cap may decrease next year. As I understand it you need cap space to sign a free agent. So, the only way to spin the Boozer situation into an improved team is to trade him for someone or resign him, because if they let him walk they may come out of luxury tax territory but they still won’t have the cap space to sign some comparable player.
I really like AK as a player but he is making way too much money, it would sadden me, but maybe he should be traded.
Teams who are over the can sign a player (or players) using Mid-Level Exception (MLE), or the Bi-Annual Exception. The MLE is calculated as the average player salary, and can be used to sign a single player, or it can be split to sign multiple players. For the past two seasons the MLE has been about $5.8 million, and will probably be close to that in 2010-11. The Bi-Annual Exception can only be used every other year (the Jazz will be eligible to use it), and will be worth $2.08 million. Like the MLE this exception can be split among multiple players.
The only teams who cannot use the MLE and Bi-Annual Exceptions are those who are under the cap.
from what I’ve been reading, they want to package Bell AND Claxton with Randolph making the deal about 12.4 M on their end…and supposedly they’ve been talking to NOH
New Orleans isn't going to give up David West, i don't believe. He has a really reasonable contract for his production.
But it would save them money if they thought AR could replace West’s production.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
The Jazz need to get rid of Korver and Okur
Who both suck at defense..
FREE FESS!!! He needs way more playing time. Did you guys see his monster jam yesterday?
The Orioles Suck!
Kill Korver!
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