I have long considered this, but once I got challenged by Shums in tonight's game thread I figured I would do a quick investigation. I have figured that if the Jazz have a good third quarter (minus the Dallas game back on Nov. 3rd) they will usually win the game. Usually the 3rd quarter will tell the tale of whether I want to watch the 4th quarter. I did some quick investigating and here is a quarter by quarter break down in both wins and losses.
In Jazz wins the average points per quarter are:
Jazz - 27.8 - 27.0 - 26.9 - 23.8
Opp - 23.7 - 24.0 - 23.4 - 22.8
In a Jazz loss the average points per quarter are:
Jazz - 25.5 - 25.0 - 19.5 - 24.3
Opp - 24.5 - 26.7 - 26.8 - 27.2
The Jazz are close to the same in wins and losses except for the 7.4 point drop in the 3rd quarter!
I am glad that the numbers back up what I have been thinking.
Another glaring number is in the 4th quarter. The opponents are scoring 4.4 more points in a Jazz loss.
I don't get why the Jazz are coming out so flat in the 3rd quarter. Any ideas?