Deron v Paul - Because there's never enough fuel for this fire

by Basketball John on Feb 23, 2009 12:00 PM MST Comment 30 comments

Let me start out by saying that nothing has changed. Chris Paul is absolutely fantastic. He single-handedly kept the Hornets in the game on Saturday. He could not miss (until the fourth quarter :) ).

Here's the proverbial but... You would think that with the MSM's fascination with digging up dead horses so that they can beat them, we would have Williams/Paul comparisons ad nauseum. But since they won't cover it, then I have to bring this information to you.

It's often stated on other blogs and media sites that every outside of Utah knows that Chris Paul is better than Deron Williams. I'd like to counter that statement with everyone outside of Utah never sees Deron Williams play and never sees what he can do. So before I'm accused of an inferiority complex, let's just call it equal time.

Sure, we may have blue-colored glasses when it comes to comparing the two. But is it totally out of line? Are we comparing Rafael Araújo to Dwight Howard?

Hardly.

If you've been watching and following Deron Williams and the Jazz, you'll know that D-Will has been crazy the last two months, you know, the last two where he's actually been healthy after the Derrick "Freakin'" Rose incident? You know, the one where he's had most of the team together instead of some ad hoc team and rotations?

And has anyone noticed that Paul's numbers have "slipped" over that same time period? I say slipped, but it's hard to say slipped when they're still so high. It's like if you're salary dropped from $1.5MM a year to $1.4MM. Anyway, here are a couple of nifty graphs that will illustrate my point.

The first deals with assists. After the Jazz/Hornets game, Deron's APG was 10.2 while Paul's dropped a bit to 10.7. So a half an assist separates them and they're miles apart as everyone would have you believe? The other line shows their running average of assists per game. Pay attention to the last two months,

(click on graph to embiggen)

Paul's APG has dropped by almost 2 per game. Still, he's almost at 10 per game. Deron on the other hand has cruised along the last two months at 10.7 APG.

On to the points comparison,

That scoring trend won't continue for Deron of course, especially since Boozer is coming back tonight and Deron won't be called upon to score as much as he has. But you see what he had in him. Had Paul had 5 straight games of 30+, you'd still be hearing about it now. For the record, Paul has 6 games this season with 30+ while Deron has had 7. You won't hear about that either.

So while I would love to put this whole debate to rest, as long as Deron is perceived to be less than Paul, it will go on.

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Damn Rose!

We’ll never know what could have been. But this was Deron’s year… Maybe the LHM thing will give us some momentum – though that’s a horrible thing to say. Better to say, may their winning honor LHM. In any event, it will give the press something to talk about when the Jazz are in the finals. On the other hand, the turning point in this season (I’m predicting second-half success) was not LHM’s death, rather it was Paul Millsap’s bank shot after the foul against the C’s. I hope.

Buckle up!

by MTN on Feb 23, 2009 12:09 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Great stat crunching!

Don’t forget I’m keeping a tally of all of their games against each other from each season (ms excel is my friend), here are the results so far: Deron owns

for a more detailed analysis of two seemingly equal guards visit: http://allthatjazzbasketball.blogspot.com/2009/02/requisite-cp-vs-d-will-head-to-head.html

by AllThatJazzBasketball on Feb 23, 2009 12:13 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Oh come on

Yeah, Deron has been better recently, but that doesn’t change the fact that Paul has been better over the course of their respective careers. Head to head doesn’t mean anything either. Deron’s size and strength makes him the exact sort of PG who gives Paul a lot of trouble, but over the course of an 82 game season, Paul is still more valuable.

I really wish people would quit getting so caught up in trying to make this argument, because it only makes Deron look bad. Being the second best point guard in the league behind a guy who’s well on the way to being one of best players in the history of the position is nothing to be ashamed of.

by NorseHawk on Feb 23, 2009 12:31 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

It's funny how you just out-right dismiss everything in D-Will's favor...

His size does matter. His defense does matter. The head to head match-ups do matter.

Would it be fair of me to just say, “The stats don’t mean anything either…”?

"Taking offense is a cottage industry in this country" --Bill James

by Patrick517 on Feb 23, 2009 1:42 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Deron is better when they play each other

The rest of the season, Paul is a better player. On a game by game basis, basketball is largely about matchups, and Paul doesn’t match up well with Deron because of the size difference. That doesn’t prove he’s a worse overall player.

I guess you can say that the stats don’t mean anything, but that would be pretty silly. They don’t mean anything, but they’re certainly very important, and posters below me have showed how much better Paul is in that department, especially when you use tempo-free stats (which everyone should).

I love the Jazz and especially Deron, but this just isn’t a favorable comparison for him, and I wish people would let it go. He’s a great player, and everyone acknowledges that. Why can we just leave it at that?

by NorseHawk on Feb 23, 2009 10:19 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

whoops, meant to write "they don't me everything, but" re: stats

by NorseHawk on Feb 23, 2009 10:20 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

My point was that it would be unfair for me to dismiss the stats

just as it is unfair for you to dismiss Deron’s size advantage and his advantage in the head to head match-ups. I’d say they’re pretty close to even especially after you factor in their over-all records as prodigal points out below.

"Taking offense is a cottage industry in this country" --Bill James

by Patrick517 on Feb 24, 2009 1:13 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Paul is more valuable based on what exactly? Endorsement deals?

His individual stats? How about we look at team success during their tenure and see who’s more valuable?

Deron’s career win loss (reg season- current): 179-123 (.593) CP: 165-135 (.550)

Plus, Deron has been to the WCF and WC semi-finals. Paul made it to the Semi’s last year.

by prodigal punk on Feb 23, 2009 2:20 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

This argument cannot be settled and may never be

The fact is, they are both sensational…

However, if they ever match up in a playoff series- that would be outstanding to watch. Then, the H to H matchup would matter, wouldn’t it?

I loved how they got after each other the other night. CP3 was really getting on Deron’s nerves with his handchecking.

You can see they respect each other (and they are always acting like best buds), but deep down I bet Deron wants to beat him down every time they play.

2009...A New Hope

by hk47 on Feb 23, 2009 2:11 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

You are using raw stats

which are a little misleading. The Hornets play at the third slowest pace in the league. Pace adjust and the numbers are somewhat different.

I have a hard time believing that Paul isn’t better when his PER is over nine points greater and his TS% is better.

We can all agree that they are both great. You can argue Williams is better, but stats are not what you want to use to make that argument. Paul is having one of the better (MJ excluded) PER seasons ever.

by Cablinasian on Feb 23, 2009 3:44 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

it's not even a close comparison, either

Just going from the stats on BR

Chris Paul:
Assist %: 54.6 (1st in the league)
Turnover %: 14.4
Steal %:4.0 (1st in the league)
Rebounding %: 8.6 (don’t really need it from a PG, but still nice to have)
Offensive Rating: 125 (that is, given 100 possessions, CP would score 125 points)
PER: 29.8
Win Shares: 11.1

Deron Williams:
Assist %: 47.1
Turnover %: 17.3
Steal %: 1.5
Rebounding %: 4.7
Offensive Rating: 115
PER: 20.8
Win Shares: 4.8

All those stats (except for PER) are adjusted for pace. And in every category, Paul exceeds Williams. Just for laughs, let’s look at Devin Harris’ production.

Devin Harris:
Assist %: 33.1
Turnover %: 17.1
Steal %: 2.4
Rebounding %: 5.3
Offensive Rating: 114
PER: 22.1
Win Shares: 5.7

See, the competition isn’t between Chris Paul and Williams for best PG in the league (that’s not really any sort of contest) – it’s between Devin Harris and Deron Williams for 2nd place. And Harris might be winning. He leads your boy in steals, rebounding, PER, and Win Shares. Williams gets a big lead in assists. Both are pretty close together in turnovers, O-Rating (as well as, for what it’s worth, D-Rating. I didn’t include Defensive Rating, mostly because I don’t put too much stock into it). Harris has played more games this year than Williams, which may account for the lead in Win Shares, but staying on the court is an important part of being a player.

by Only_A_Lad on Feb 23, 2009 7:12 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

this post seems a tad insensitive on the day of the hawks game if you ask me.

;)

by hawksdawgs on Feb 23, 2009 4:06 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

We feel for you, really, we do.

The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.

by clarkpojo on Feb 23, 2009 4:18 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

The future may be in Williams favor

Fortunately for Jazz fans, winning matters more than stats, or even how good they look on the court, and Williams has got a much brighter future on that front. (Not that I think Paul is the victor on those accounts. . .)

Thin as they are and with aged major players like Stojakovic and Posey, it’s tough to see NO competing w/o substantial rebuilinding. Utah, on the other hand, has 4 of their five best players miss a combined 85 games or so over the first 2/3 of the season and they’re still in a dead heat with NO. (Conversely, had, on top of Chandler’s troubles, West missed 40+ games and Paul 14, along with being clearly hurt another 10, NO wouldn’t be in playoff contention right now, much like 2 years ago.)

Thus, with Utah’s depth and youth and NO’s incredible thinness, it’s very easy to imagine, 3 years from now, Williams’ Utah team has gotten out of the first round 5 consecutive times with maybe 2 trips to the WCF, whereas Paul’s Hornets have been bounced from the first round several times, maybe even missing them once more. It’ll never be like the WCF finals 2 years back, where Williams was quite commonly named the top PG in the world next to Nash and noboboy gave a damn about Paul (cause his team was no good) but all this, “Paul is the next Isiah Thomas, only better, and anyone who suggests any other PG may be his match is INSANE for reasons I cannot rationally explain,” stuff may have been flushed down the memory hole.

Needless to say, a lot can happen in a few years. NO may bring in a better supporting cast (though I don’t see you getting past the semis with Chandler and West as your 2 and 3 guys) and Utah may explode itself, but the odds are in our favor.

by Kcin on Feb 23, 2009 6:58 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Actually..

Most people who defend Paul’s greatness over all other active point guards can do so with many rational explanations, and it has been done many times over. Just look at atthehive.com’s response to this post and you’ll see a very rational explanation.

And which teams wins the most is not all that relevant to the “debate,”… because as you pointed out, supporting cast is very important.

I don’t even understand why its important for Jazz fans to continually bring this up and try to argue it… Williams is a fraeking amazing point guard and player. He’s not better than Chris Paul, but so what?He’s still great, will always be great, and the Jazz are a great team.

by Caleb462 on Feb 25, 2009 11:37 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Celtics fan here

I’d take Deron Williams over Chris dribble dribble paul anyday of the week , I think Willams is as good and better in just about every aspect of the game

by TheAncientRivalry on Feb 24, 2009 1:56 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

You guys have to look at the stats per possessions. Go to atthehive.com to read a PERFECT COMPARISON between CP3 and D-Will.

CP3 is always and will be better then D-Will. Deron Williams is good like on maybe Derrick Rose’s level but he doesn’t even deserve to clean Chris Paul’s shoes!

Devin Brown is a basketball God!

by chandlerfan6 on Feb 24, 2009 7:38 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Okay. We'll see you in May then.

And you probably think Isaiah Thomas was better than John Stockton.

The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.

by clarkpojo on Feb 24, 2009 9:36 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

actually,

anybody who was looking at per-possession stats would tell you that Stockton was much, much better that Thomas. Stockton averaged about 10.3 wins/year. Thomas averaged about 6.2. Not even close.

But Williams is maybe the 4th best PG in the NBA. The statistical difference between Williams and Paul is massive, and Williams can’t even touch Jameer Nelson.

by Only_A_Lad on Feb 24, 2009 10:42 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the enlightenment. Your colored boxes explained everything perfectly.

The fact you are a Rockets fan only makes your case stronger. But I’m confused. As a Rocket’s fan, you should know better. If anyone on your team could stop Deron Williams, you might have advanced in the playoffs. And you lost all credibility when you said that Jameer Nelson and Devin Harris are better point guards than Deron Williams.

Here are some stats sans colored boxes.

Games played on Feb 5-11

Williams 32.3 ppg, 11.7 apg, 58% fg, 96% ft, 3 tos
Paul 13 ppg, 5 apg, 40 fg, 66 ft, 3 tos
D. Harris 25.6 ppg, 7.3 apg, 45% fg, 80% ft, 3.3 tos
Sessions 28.3 ppg, 11.3 apg, 66% fg, 81% ft, 3.75 tos

So as you can see, my data clearly shows that not only is Williams the best point guard in the league, but Paul is actually like the 20th best and the clear competition for 2nd place is between Devin Harris and Ramon Sessions. I was really surprised by the data, but it doesn’t lie. I just report the facts.

The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.

by clarkpojo on Feb 24, 2009 11:32 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

typical

I’m just telling you what the stats say. Individual match-ups do not determine who’s the best player, only who’s the better in a one-on-one matchup. Yao routinely has trouble with Al Jefferson, because Jefferson’s outside shot is too much for the big guy. That doesn’t mean Jefferson is the superior center. Dwight Howard is out-performing Yao this year, but Yao routinely destroys Howard. Howard is still the better player this year.

You’re giving a week of performances. I’m giving you the performances across the entire season. And I’m giving you the adjusted statistics – those per possession stats that aren’t affected by pace. You can’t just look at the basic stats, because they will mislead you, and you have to look at a long enough period so that there is a large enough sample size to make a meaningful judgement.

Up until his season-ending injury, Jameer Nelson was objectively the 2nd-best point guard in the league. Admittedly, it’s close enough between Harris, Williams, and Nelson that one could reasonably say that any of them was 2nd-best. But, once you look at all the statistics and measure win shares, Nelson comes out on top. But Chris Paul is better than any other PG in the league in virtually every other statistic. The only statistic where he was being beaten was in TS%, and that was by Nelson.

And it’s not like being a Rockets fan means that all the stats become tainted. The stats are pure – they tell us exactly what happened. And, once you adjust for differences in possessions, Deron Williams was the worst of the four point guards compared.

You whole argument is silly – it’s like arguing Darko is better than Dwight Howard.

And you lost all credibility when you said that Jameer Nelson and Devin Harris are better point guards than Deron Williams.

Why? Because it didn’t fit you assumptions? I’ve got good stats to back that statement up. All you’ve got are bad stats and you preconceived notions and biases.

by Only_A_Lad on Feb 25, 2009 12:23 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

And I'm just telling you what the stats say. Those were real stats, not made up.

You obviously didn’t get my sarcasm in using a 3 game span. Do you really think that I think Ramon Sessions is the second best point guard? Your stats look only at this season. A season in which Deron Williams is the only guard on your list who has played with a significant injury. Want to look at stats? Guess who has had a better TS% during the last two seasons between Williams and Paul. Here’s a hint: it’s not Paul. Until this season, Deron has been a significantly better shooter than Paul. And over the last 30 games or so, Williams has been better. So when they are both healthy…. The point is that Paul is statistically better at most things and Williams is a better shooter, especially from long range. But stats only tell part of the story. People have made improvements to NBA statistics to get a better picture, but where is the control in these statistical analyses? Until you can put the two in the same position, you can’t know who is better indefinitely.

Aside from the stats, Deron has the intangibles. Deron makes more shots that he takes, especially from the more efficient 3 point line. And despite what you say, Deron’s size matters absolutely. He isn’t as much of a defensive liability as Paul is becase of it. Paul is great against 80% of the opposing teams guards, but there are some teams where he can’t guard anyone on the opposing team. That is why he can’t beat Utah. He can’t guard Williams and he can’t guard Brewer. But check out what happens to the opposing guards when NO plays Utah, or the LA Clippers this year, or Denver. NO’s can’t hang with them cuz Paul can’t guard the larger guards. Thus, Williams has had more success in the playoffs. In fact after Deron’s tear through the playoffs two years ago, people were giving him the nod as best up and coming point guard in the league. And then Paul claimed that title with his MVP campaign last season.

I and most Jazz fans are not arguing that Deron is better than Chris Paul. It’s a stupid argument, because at this point it is mostly up to public opinion and you aren’t going to change my mind and I’m not going to change yours. We just feel that it’s funny that people don’t even think it is an argument anymore. I think Paul is fantastic. I think Devin Harris is fantastic and so is Jameer Nelson. But if I am going to build my team around one of those guys or pick one to take my team deep in the playoffs, it’s clearly Williams. He gives the team the best shot at winning. If you switched Williams and Paul today and let the Jazz play the Hornets, the Hornets would probably have the edge. And when Williams leads his team to the finals and an NBA championship before Paul, I will have my vindication. And people will say that Williams has more to work with and that Paul is better, etc, but Jazz fans and people who have watched Deron play lots of games, will know the real reason. He runs the game. He can dominate games much better and he is the best point guard in the league. But I don’t expect you to ever believe that. And that’s fine. I’m not trying to prove a point.

But you know and I know, that Williams was the most unguardable player on the floor in the series with Houston and Utah.

The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.

by clarkpojo on Feb 25, 2009 11:32 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Championships/playoff success... are ultimately only a fractional part of judging a player's game..

Because they are so dependent on other factors. Did Kevin Garnett become a better player because he won a championship? No, he was always a player capable of contributing mightily to a championship run… but he never had the teammates to do it until last year.

by Caleb462 on Feb 25, 2009 11:48 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

last year

(and last year only) Williams led Paul in TS%. But Paul was still worth more wins because of everything else he does better than Williams.

Look, you’re picking and choosing which stats (and which sample sizes) you want to use. This year, and across his career, Paul has been the better player. And this year, Jameer Nelson is better than Williams, as is Harris.

I and most Jazz fans are not arguing that Deron is better than Chris Paul. It’s a stupid argument, because at this point it is mostly up to public opinion and you aren’t going to change my mind and I’m not going to change yours. We just feel that it’s funny that people don’t even think it is an argument anymore.

Because it’s not an argument anymore. Every objective measure (and, for what it’s worth, most subjective evidence) shows that Paul is leaps and bounds better than Paul. This isn’t a contest. This is comparing Kobe Bryant to Brandon Roy.

Deron’s size matters absolutely. He isn’t as much of a defensive liability as Paul is becase of it.

This is idiotic. Paul’s stats show that he is – by far – the best defensive PG in the league. Just because he’s skinnier and shorter doesn’t mean he’s a “liability.” His skills and agility more than make up for his size.

He runs the game. He can dominate games much better and he is the best point guard in the league. But I don’t expect you to ever believe that. And that’s fine. I’m not trying to prove a point.

In the end, you’re just saying “He looks like he’s the best.” The fact that nobody who’s not a Jazz fan agrees with that, and the fact that all objective evidence shows otherwise should tell you something about that statement.

But you know and I know, that Williams was the most unguardable player on the floor in the series with Houston and Utah.

It’s hilarious that you keep trying to bring this up. Here’s a hint: the argument isn’t about whether or not Williams is better than Brooks or Alston.

Seriously, you Jazz fans need to give this crap up. It’s not a rational argument.

by Only_A_Lad on Feb 25, 2009 1:34 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

PERFECTION!

Devin Brown is a basketball God!

by chandlerfan6 on Feb 25, 2009 1:28 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Look at you TIME SPAN! Wow williams is better in the past TWO GAMES! Get over yourself.

First off, the only reason D-Will scores more is because he takes more shots. CP3 can score any time he wants to but like a great point guard, he looks for his teammates FIRST, shot SECOND! If you must look at per game stats then here take a look at this;

Games played on Oct 30-Feb24
Williams 19.1 ppg, 10.2 apg, 2.7 rpg, 47% fg, 83% ft, 3.5 tos
Paul 21.8 ppg, 10.8 apg, 5.3 rpg, 51% fg, 85% ft, 2.98 tos (Paul beats Williams in every single catagory just to let you know)
Harris 21.9 ppg, 6.6 apg, 3.2 rpg, 44% fg, 82% ft, 2.88 tos
Sessions 12.1 ppg, 4.8 apg, 3.1 rpg, 45% fg, 79% ft, 1.84 tos

Ok to recap, Paul leads in EVERY SINGLE statistical category except for points which Devin Harris has by .1! Now people will say oh well Deron Williams has been hurt a lot this year and Ramon Sessions hasn’t been a starter. Well CP3 had a groin injury although he only missed 4 games, it effected his numbers. Well, if you still have a problem, then you can look at per-possession stats where CP3 owns EVERYBODY! CP3 has the best ratings any way you look at it.

Devin Brown is a basketball God!

by chandlerfan6 on Feb 25, 2009 1:26 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

"It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt." -Mark Twain

The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.

by clarkpojo on Feb 25, 2009 2:55 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Point guard or shooting guard?

Deron has the physical attributes of a shooting guard, while Paul does not. He also has a deeper supporting group, who can win without Deron being in the game. They create their own shot much better than most of the Hornets.

Paul is more of a true point guard, whose role is to make assists, create open looks for his team, and avoid turn-overs. He is efficient in that role as any player in the last 30 years. Deron combines lesser skills in that role with the size and shooting touch of a second-tier (below Kobe, for example, but above Paul) shooting guard. That allows Utah to use a slasher like Brewer rather than a normal long-range shooter at the 2. This creates tough match-ups. However, Mehmet Okur from 3 and tired big men after a back-to back with the Lakers is what kills the Hornets, more so than DW or Brewer.

Utah uses their favorable home record (crowd, altitude, let-them-foul refs, and no-Sunday policy) to win enough extra wins to stay in the top 4 and extend their playoff series. They also played Houston each time they advanced. Big deal. Make it past San Antonio or LA and then brag. I concede that Utah matches up well with the Hornets and would probably beat us in the playoffs, but it won’t be any advantage at point guard that can be blamed for that.

by NOEngineer on Feb 25, 2009 11:54 AM MST reply actions 0 recs