The arms (Western Conference) Race

The Western Conference Playoff race reminds me a little bit of the old school cartoon rumbles.  You might know what I am talking about.  Usually a group of badguys would gang up on the protaganist and jump him.  And then you would see this cloud of dust, surrounded surrounded by circles of motion, only to see the protaganist slip out of the fray, with the fight continuing on.  Heathcliff and Michaelangelo from the Ninja Turtles were masters at the art of getting your enemies to beat each other up.  But the question, in the race for seeds 2-8, is: "what team(s) are Heathcliffs and which teams will leave the fight worse off than before?"  A look at the remaining schedules might help us.  In order of current seeds (Jazz last):

San Antonio Spurs (40-20)

Home and Away:  12 Home games, 10 road games

Gimmies: (7)  Home games with Washington, Minnesota, Golden State, OKC and LAC; road games at Sacramento and Golden State.

Games with Western playoff contenders: (8) Pho, LAL, Houston, Utah, Portland, NO at home; Houston and NO on the road

Potential problems:  The Spurs have a handful of almost gimmies, but with the way teams like Charlotte, and OKC are playing lately, this is a worse time to meet those teams, especially Charlotte who is fighting for a playoff spot.  Also home against Boston and on the road in Cleveland which is almost a guaranteed loss.

Bottom line:  The Spurs have some difficult games coming up, but they have been here before and always peak before the playoffs. Their veteran saavy allows them to win at home and on the road and keeps them from losing games they just shouldn't. 

Prediction: 15-7 the rest of the way and finish at 55-27

Denver Nuggets (40-22)

Home and Away: 11 home, 9 away

Gimmies: (10) Home: OKC twice, LAC twice, Washington, GS, SAC;                    Away: SAC, MEM, MIN

Games with Western contenders: (8) Home: HOU and Utah; away: Utah, PHO, NO, DAL, LAL, POR

Potential Problems: They have a lot of gimmies, but notice all the road games against Western playoff contenders, three of which are in a row.  Oh, and Carmelo's attitude.

Bottome Line:  A nice mixture of gimmies and toughies.  But Denver has been fantastic against sub-.500 teams and tough at home. They will be in the division race til the last day.

Prediction: 12-8 to finish  52-30.

New Orleans Hornets (38-22)

Home and Away: 10 home; 12 away

Gimmies: (8) Home: OKC, MIN, MEM, GS;                                                                   Away: WAS, SAC, LAC, GS

Games with Western Contenders: (9) Home: HOU, DEN, SA, UTA, PHO, DAL   Away: DAL, HOU, SA

Potential Problems: Lots of games on the road against Eastern teams in or trying to make the playoffs.  They might also have the most brutal ending to a schedule with 7 straight tough games to close the season.

Bottom Line:  They are a different team with Tyson Chandler. They aren't going to get outrebounded or outplayed downlow as often.  But they do have a tough finish with lots of road games and tough teams to play.

Prediction: 13-9 to finish 51-31

Houston Rockets (39-23)

Home and Away: 10 home, 10 away

Gimmies: (5) Home: MEM, MIN, LAC  Away: SAC, GS

Games with Western Contenders: (12) Home: PHO, LAL, SA, POR, NO              Away:  DEN, UTA, SA, NO, PHO, LAL, DAL

Potential Problems: They don't have a lot of gimmies left.  And they have to play the surging Detroit Pistons and the Magic at home.  For a team that is relying on role players more than ever, their role players are going to be in a lot of difficult situations from here on out.

Prediction: 5-15 from here on out to finish 44-38;  Just wanted to through that in in case any Dream Shakers were around.                                                                           11-9 to finish 50-32.

Portland Trailblazers (38-23)

Home and Away: 11 home, 10 away

Gimmies: (7) Home: Min, NJ, MEM, OKC                                                                      Away: MEM twice and the LAC

Games with Western Contenders: (8) Home: LAL twice, DAL, PHO, UTA, DEN   Away: HOU, SA

Potential Problems:  Their games are against Western Contenders, but two are against the Lakers.  They also have essentially two very tough 5-game road trips left with one of those being interrupted by a home game with LA.  They also are the least experienced team on this list when it comes to making the playoffs.

Bottome Line:  They have been one of the best teams at home and they might not lose another home game all year.  Those road trips will obviously factor largely in where they end up.

Prediction: 14-7 to finish 52-30.

Dallas Mavericks (37-25)

Home and Away: 10 home, 10 away

Gimmies: (5) Home: WAS, GS, MIN                                                                               Away: GS and MEM

Games with Western Contenders: (9) Home: DEN, PHO, UTA, NO, HOU             Away: PHO, POR, LAL, NO

Potential Problems: Home games against Detroit and Miami will be difficult wins.  Also have to go to Cleveland.  Four game road swing coming up could put them out of the playoffs for awhile and that could drain them mentally.

Bottom Line:  If Dallas plays like they did against San Antonio, they will stay in the playoffs and might even move up a spot.  If they play like they did against Oklahoma City a week ago, Phoenix could catch them.  Either way, I don't think the Lakers or Spurs are afraid to play them in the playoffs.

Prediction: 11-9 to finish 48-34.

Phoenix Suns (34-27)

Home and Away: 11 home, 10 away

Gimmies: (7) Home: OKC, WAS, SAC, MEM                                                                Away: GS, SAC, MEM

Games with Western Contenders: (10) Home: DAL, DEN, UTA, HOU                   Away: HOU, SA, POR, UTA, DAL, NO

Potential Problems: NIne of the next 12 games are very loseable and if they don't play well soon, they are going to be too far behind to catch up.  At this point they either need Dallas to get some key injuries or have a massive meltdown in order to get into the playoffs.

Prediction: 11-10 to finish 45-37.

       So obviously, these are just predictions and I could be really wrong, but it is helpful to see how easy or difficult teams' schedules are in order to get an idea.  Denver and Houston are going to need to overachieve a little bit in order to climb up the standings.  And I think this exercise gives us an idea of how the Jazz need to finish in order to move up in the standings. I saved them for last so that I could paint the picture with the other teams.  As Jazz fans we are probably a little unobjective, but I will try my best not to be. So here we go:

Utah Jazz (38-23)

Home and Away:  8 Home, 13 Away

Gimmies: (5) Home: WAS, NYK, MIN, GS, LAC                                                           Away: None that I can see

Games with Western Contenders: (10) Home: DEN, HOU, PHO                           Away: PHO, POR, DEN, NO, DAL, SA, LAL

Potential Problems:  Umm.. other than the fact that it seems like the Jazz have a five game road trip for every home game, they play a lot of good teams still, including, the Hawks, Magic, and Heat from the East.  And at this point, they could lose every road game.

Bottom Line: The way that the Jazz play these last 21 games will not only decide their seed in the playoffs, but to a great extent, the confidence they play with in the playoffs.  If the Jazz are going to win on the road in the playoffs, they need to learn to win on the road right now.  And I mean, right now.  I could see them winning most of the road games left, but I can also see them have many more road woes.

Prediction:  The answer is probably somewhere in the middle when it comes to performance on the road.  14-7 to finish 52-30.  And that is fairly hopeful.

So that leaves the playoff seedings at:

1. LA Lakers

2. San Antonio Spurs                              55-27

3. Denver Nuggets                                  52-30

4. Utah Jazz                                              52-30

5. Portland TrailBlazers                          52-30

6. New Orleans Hornets                        51-31

7. Houston Rockets                                50-32

8. Dallas Mavericks                                 48-34

             Just a couple of side notes.  I broke the tie between Denver, Utah, and Portland by using the tiebreaker rules for the playoff seeding.  Since Denver has the best division record of the three today, I gave them the higher seed.  Utah is next and then Portland.  That is one of the reasons that winning at Denver or at Portland would be so big.  We could use the tiebreakers with the Blazers and Nuggets.  I don't think the playoffs are really a question for the Jazz anymore.  But if we want to do anything of consequence in the playoffs, we need at least a top 5 seed.  The second or third seed would be ideal, but we would obviously need to finish at least 7-6 in our remaining road games and win all of our home games in order to reach the 3rd seed.  So chime in.  Where am I wrong and can the Jazz make the 3rd seed like many analysts are predicting now?