Live by the 3, win by the 3

by Basketball John on May 12, 2009 1:00 PM MDT Comment 5 comments

This is old in Internet time, but I'm in catch-up mode. This is from Hollinger's column last week:

2. 3-point attempts correlate with winning.
I've mentioned this before, but teams that take lots of 3s tend to win, and the more 3s they jack up the more successful they are. The idea that "real" teams don't depend on the 3 is based in the old-school mentality that the 3 is a novelty shot, a circus trick that has little to do with real basketball.

The truth is the exact opposite, though. The Celtics and Lakers last season both shot the 3 far more than the league average, as did the Spurs and Suns in 2007, and the Heat in 2006, and nearly every other quality team from the past several years -- the only low-3 teams to break through were Larry Brown's Pistons teams and the 2006 Mavericks.

For a good example, look at the Magic in the playoffs. They have actually shot better in their losses (36.8 percent) than in their wins (34.5 percent) -- but in the wins they tried 23.8 triples, and in the losses they took only 19.0. That's not an accident; it's the NBA's new reality.

Of course, you're going to have a hard time convincing Jerry Sloan about that. Here are the Jazz winning percentages from the past 3 seasons in regards to the number of three-point attempts:

>=15 attempts per game:
78 games
45-33 - .577

That's a 47 win season.

<15 attempts per game:
168 games
109-59 - .649

That's a 53 win season.

If they take at least 20, then they're nominally better at .583 (7-5). If they take at least 22 attempts, they're 5-2 (7.14). That's a small sample size of course.

There's a lot of factors in there though. Kyle Korver stated when he came here, there were zero plays drawn up specifically for a three-pointer. So the fact that our players and coach aren't set up for a three-point shooting team plays a big part. There are others as well I'm sure.

Compared to the rest of the league, the Jazz have been at the bottom of the pack normally when it comes to three point shooting percentage. Here are the last three years' data for the Jazz:

They've been at the top of the league in attempts, so no one can accuse them of not using the 3 Ball. Where they've lacked is in percentage.

We're also accustomed to seeing the Jazz get beat by the three, but we're actually in the mid to lower half of the pack when it comes to opponents' attempts and percentages. So while there have been well-placed dagger threes by opponents, overall, the Jazz aren't bad against the three.

One more thing, here's the splits for wins and losses over the past three season for the Jazz:

2009 - 12.7 attempts per win and 15 attempts per loss.
2008 - 13.6 per win and 12.9 per loss.
2007 - 12.2 per win and 14.0 per loss.

So while it's probably in large part due to the current Jazz offense, if they're jacking up threes, they're more likely to lose a game. That's why you won't be seeing a change in strategy from Sloan any time soon.

This could also play a big part in our offseason plans. Don't look for a huge shakeup in the type of players we go after or trade for.

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I don't know what Hollinger's statistics are, but I don't think it is true at all.

I just ran over every team and only 12 of the 30 teams in the league shot more 3 pointers in their wins than in their losses. These numbers could be a little skewed because teams that are losing are more likely to shoot three pointers at times that they wouldn’t if they were winning.

But every team, as expected, shot a better 3 point % in their wins compared to their losses, and for the most part it is pretty drastic, like a difference of 4-8%. So actually, teams are better off when they shoot more threes AND make more threes.

And I think this has always been Sloan’s MO. He doesn’t mind 3 pointers, he just wants them to go in, if you are going to shoot it. And who’d have guessed that he was right? I for one, would like ot see us sign a high percentage 3 point shooter to add to this team.

Steve Novak is a free agent who shot in the top 20 in the league in 3 point . Michael Finley shot over 40 and Jarvis Hayes, Anthony Parker, and Von Wafer all shot 39%. Just throwing some names out there.

The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.

by clarkpojo on May 12, 2009 2:55 PM MDT reply actions

The problem

we have too many wings as is. If we’re going to add one of those guys, we probably would have to lose a couple as well (CJ, Harpring… not saying it can’t happen, it’s just not likely)

True Blue Jazz
I'm on Twitter
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09

by UtesFan89 on May 12, 2009 5:35 PM MDT up reply actions

We don't need new guys, just new plays

Call a play for a 3 once in a while. I wonder if Korver can hit the three off a tight curl as quickly as he does from the elbow… they could run the same curl/fade play but run it out to the 3 instead of a 15 footer. But it might be too far out to catch and launch that quickly… I don’t know. But we have shooters, they just need attempts.

I'll make it coach.

by MTN on May 13, 2009 1:57 PM MDT up reply actions

Korver

1- He needs to get healthy again. He wasn’t this season, and it killed us. And him, I guess.
2- He needs confidence. He might not be the best player on the team, but late in the game, if we need a trey and he has the ball, he needs to shoot if he gets a look. Enough with the passing it up.

True Blue Jazz
I'm on Twitter
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09

by UtesFan89 on May 14, 2009 8:27 AM MDT up reply actions

I agree....

If we actually ran plays for 3pt shots, then that would eliminate what Sloan claims is his main concern about those shots: long rebounds turn into fast breaks for the other teams. It seems to me if you run a play and are expecting a 3pt shot players can position themselves to prevent that.

by Frank5 on May 14, 2009 12:23 AM MDT reply actions