If the Jazz match for Millsap -- then what?
by Shums on Jul 11, 2009 1:02 AM MDT
37 comments
This is just to play devil's advocate to my earlier comments, because I still think this deal isn't altogether unreasonable for Millsap, taken by itself, and it's not as bad as it could be. But taking a closer look at the numbers, I'm having second thoughts. My very-imperfect salary estimates follow. (Feel free to correct me if my numbers are off.) And be warned: it's ugly.
We know about what it will cost to keep Millsap this year, whether we move Boozer or not. And we also know that Korver's and Harpring's contracts are set to expire. But even after that, the Jazz are seriously BONED for the next two or three years if they match, due not just to Boozer, but also (even more so) due to Kirilenko. In 2010-11, he's scheduled to make $17.8 frakking million. Add in D-Will at $15M, Memo at $11M, and Millsap at $8M, and, well, that sucks. A lot. As in, we might not even be able to field a full roster.
Okay, that's an exaggeration, but here's what we're looking at:
AK: $17.8M
DWill: $15.2M
Memo: $11M
Millsap: $8M
CJ: $3.7M
Ronnie B: $3.8M just as qualifying offer, probably much more (he'll be a restricted free agent, like Millsap is now)
The Koof: $1.3M
Maynor: $1.4M
Knicks draft pick: $1.5-2M
Total: approximately $62-64M for 9 players
Estimated luxury tax level: $65-69M
Now we're looking at signing like four or five scrubs, at less than $500K each, just to field a full roster of 13 players and avoid the luxury tax again. OUCH.
It gets much better in 2011-12, once Kirilenko's giant millstone of a contract is gone:
DWill: $16.6M
Memo: $11M
Millsap: $8.6M
CJ: $3.7M
The Koof: $2.2M
Maynor: $1.5M
Knicks pick: $2M
Total: approx. $46M
Then we'd be well under the cap and have freedom enough to do whatever. But we'd also have only 6 or 7 players under contract (DWill, Memo, Millsap, CJ, The Koof, Maynor, Knicks pick).
As it stands right now, matching on Millsap and doing nothing else to cut salary will cost us the luxury tax this year, and, unless we manage to move AK, next year as well. All that, and we probably won't even have a very competitive team in 2010, as we'll have to get by with whomever we can sign for peanuts. Forget about trades/free agency -- we'll struggle to sign warm bodies at all.
I still want Millsap here, and I don't think, in a vacuum, this contract is too crazy for him as our starter. But if we match... well, I don't envy Kevin O'Connor. Or Greg Miller. Because they're gonna have to get used to being a lot poorer. And unless some other significant moves are made, we'll all have to get used to cheering for what will probably a much worse basketball team.
All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.
0 recs |
37 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
I voted no.
Unless the Jazz find a taker for Boozer (that gives us some cap space), I’d pass.
True Blue Jazz
Bucco Ball
I'm on Twitter
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
How about
You give Boozer to Houston, Portland gets Battier and Landry, Utah gets Travis Outlaw and Portlands 2010 1st rd pick
Draft Cole Aldrich 2010
Portland's pick will be pretty low; I am assuming they'll do well this year. Why would Houston give up Battier?
I'll make it coach.
Because him & Ariza
both play the same position?
And isn’t Battier kinda old now?
True Blue Jazz
Bucco Ball
I'm on Twitter
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
Wow
I was surprised, i thought everyone was going to say to match….
It’s a high price for Portland to pay for their backup power forward…
It makes me wonder
if the Jazz should have pulled the trigger on that AK for Marion deal with Phoenix a few years back.
Moral of this story...
move AK too. Maybe Chicago would take AK and Booze for Hinrich, Tyrus AND Tim? Screw Portland and their “offer they can’t refuse” tactics.
I'll make it coach.
That wouldn't really work
Teams over the cap have to match salaries +/- 10%. AK + Boozer =/= Hinrich + Thomas + Thomas. Teams under the cap can make lopsided trades where cap room is exchanged for salary. The main reason why the Blazers are even in the discussion is that they are one of the only teams with cap room that would be able to offer cap relief.
I’m also pretty sure that Chicago wants nothing to do with AK’s contract.
I don't think anybody will want anything to do with AK's contract.
I wasn’t around at the time he signed, but as a somewhat new Jazz fan (last couple seasons) I can’t imagine what made this a good idea to begin with.
by Bobby Joness on Jul 11, 2009 6:41 PM MDT up reply actions
It was the same reason why Marion was looking for a max contract extension in 2007
At one point, they were pretty special players able to defend the 3 and the 4 effectively, shoot the 3 and work under the hoop. At some point, though, either opponents figured them out or their athleticism dropped off.
at some point...
… AK hurt his knee, and that was the end of that. We used to have a promo commercial where AK flies in for a “hammer dunk” (we’ll miss Hot Rod, no?) and it was the next year he got hurt. He’s never returned to that level of aggressiveness and confidence.
I'll make it coach.
Marion was also "injured" when he left Phoenix for Miami in 2007-8
It was the first time he missed more than a couple of games due to injury. Either he was malingering because he was unhappy or his body was starting to break down at about age 30 (which is the start of the decline for many athletes).
(I don't do numbers - thank you for the gracious explanation.)
Any time contract values are being calculated, you should all ignore anything I say.
I'll make it coach.
Ziller's breakdown of the Millsap deal
Check it out. He, like Hollinger, says the hit to the luxury tax does NOT include the signing bonus:
The ploy (which some have called “brilliant”) by the cap experts in Portland was to not only front-load the Millsap offer, but to make a substantial portion of it a “signing bonus,” a tool infrequently used in the NBA. John Hollinger of ESPN.com has done the math for us, and reports that the offer sheet is four years for $28 million, plus a $6 million signing bonus.
But signing bonuses don’t count against a team’s salary cap in total in the year paid. The cap hit is spread over the life of the contract. So, depending on how front-loaded the deal is, the cap figure is only likely to be $8.3 million in 2009-10. (Hollinger indicates the cap hit for ’09-10 is $7.7 million, which would indicate the deal is not front-loaded.)
Whatever the case, that $6 million signing bonus is not an extra $6 million luxury tax hit to the Jazz, though it may look as such. It might be rough for the Jazz to pay out a lump sum like that because the signing bonus, in real terms, is actual money that needs to be paid. But as a successful NBA franchise, they can handle it.
Interesting. All those Blazer fans who keep throwing out figures of $20M or more in tax costs… well, they would appear to be wrong. Then again, no one knows the precise terms of the contract yet.
Uh, do you think you could draw me like a ninja?
The signing bonus' cap hit is prorated over the life of the contract, but is paid upfront
The year one cap hit (salary +1/4 of the signing bonus) will be $7.7 million, which will incur a tax penalty of $7.7 million because the Jazz are already over the cap. The $6 million signing bonus is paid upfront, so that the year one costs will be $7.7 million +$7.7 million + $4.5 million (signing bonus minus amount covered in cap hit). This adds up to a year one cost of $19.1 million, which is the front-loaded part.
The remaining years will have $8-10 million cap hits but the actual salary will be a little less (-1/4 of the signing bonus).
The "toxic" part is that the Jazz ownership will have to come up with an extra $19 million this year
on top of a $70 million payroll in a rough economy.
Not to mention the money they miss out on by not being under the luxury tax
"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein
by Garden of ODEN on Jul 13, 2009 12:22 AM MDT up reply actions
8 Mil a year for a double double PF...
Not bad…..good contract. 8 mil a year is not bad at all. That is a good price for a cornerstone on your starting lineup. He has proved to be as good as Boozer and he is younger. He doesnt have the scoring skills as Boozer but he could someday. I dont know after four years though…if he averages a double double for the remainder of his deal he could be demanding AK or McGrady money.
The way I see it….we need to satisfy DWill at all cost. He is our Franchise…he is it! We dont need him looking elsewhere because KOC cant make us a competitive roster. If we match Millsap that will shore up the PF position for the next 4 years. DWill is shored up. Okur is shored up for the next few years. That is PG, PF and C. All three players makes us atleast a threat for the playoffs every year…..then KOC can dedicate his time to find the right missing pieces to get us over the hump. Of course all this goes down the crapper if we cant deal AK….
"You can live for Nothing or die for Something, it's your call" - John Rambo
8 Mil a year for a double double PF...
Not bad…..good contract. 8 mil a year is not bad at all. That is a good price for a cornerstone on your starting lineup. He has proved to be as good as Boozer and he is younger. He doesnt have the scoring skills as Boozer but he could someday. I dont know after four years though…if he averages a double double for the remainder of his deal he could be demanding AK or McGrady money.
The way I see it….we need to satisfy DWill at all cost. He is our Franchise…he is it! We dont need him looking elsewhere because KOC cant make us a competitive roster. If we match Millsap that will shore up the PF position for the next 4 years. DWill is shored up. Okur is shored up for the next few years. That is PG, PF and C. All three players makes us atleast a threat for the playoffs every year…..then KOC can dedicate his time to find the right missing pieces to get us over the hump. Of course all this goes down the crapper if we cant deal AK….
"You can live for Nothing or die for Something, it's your call" - John Rambo
Oops sorry for the Double Post!
"You can live for Nothing or die for Something, it's your call" - John Rambo
Millsap is a good player
but he has definitely not proved to be as good as Boozer, and I don’t think he has the room to improve to ever get to that sort of level. The benefit of having Millsap rather than Boozer is that he doesn’t miss half the season injured. Because his last season was so poor in general it’s easy to forget just how good Boozer can be, and Millsap is not even close to that yet.
Contract numbers are out
from Deseret News:
The offer sheet that Millsap, Utah’s backup power forward, signed with Portland on Friday night calls for him to make approximately $6.2 million next season, $6.2 million in 2009-10, $6.7 million in 2010-11 and $7.2 million in 2011-2012 — plus a $5.6 million signing bonus.
Moreover, both the signing bonus and about $4.7 million of the first-season salary — $4,715,400, to be more precise — must be paid with seven days after the contract is approved by the NBA.
That’s right: $10.3 million payable up front, within seven days.
Uh, do you think you could draw me like a ninja?
I still don't get Portland
Why didn’t they go for Andre Miller or try to trade for Hinrich? Or throw Jason Kidd a bone, I know he’s old but he gives vet leadership and has at least one more “good” season in him? They need a PG. They have a decent down low game with Aldridge, Oden, and Pryzbilla. It’s not a knock your socks off front line, but adding Millsap doesn’t give them that either. I don’t get where they are coming from. Their first NEED is a PG.
But I guess that is why I get paid what I get paid and why Pritchards gets paid what he does.
I like this for the fact that now the Jazz have to get the ball rolling on what they are going to do with Booze and AK. This next week will be interesting as I am sure the Jazz will make a trade, waive someones contract, or make some move. This next week will cure my desire for Jazz talk in the news.
I really wish that Hinrich, Thomas, Boozer trade was going to happen. I liked it a lot. Freed money up for Millsap and gave us a better interior defender. A win-win in my book.
hahaha
and that, sports fans, is what we call Blazers Edge folks showing up and skewing the poll.
Uh, do you think you could draw me like a ninja?
we would never do such a thing!
lol
...God is good, Beer is GREAT, and people are crazy...
by Coconut Pete on Jul 12, 2009 8:53 AM MDT up reply actions
I am beggining to think that whichever team Sight you go to
BlazerSedge is There, and they may out number you…
Draft Cole Aldrich 2010
Yep
They watch over all of us to protect us from the evil lurking among us.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
Related FanPosts on SLC Dunk
Related FanShots on SLC Dunk
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
