If the Jazz match for Millsap -- then what?
by Shums on Jul 11, 2009 1:02 AM MDT
45 comments
This is just to play devil's advocate to my earlier comments, because I still think this deal isn't altogether unreasonable for Millsap, taken by itself, and it's not as bad as it could be. But taking a closer look at the numbers, I'm having second thoughts. My very-imperfect salary estimates follow. (Feel free to correct me if my numbers are off.) And be warned: it's ugly.
We know about what it will cost to keep Millsap this year, whether we move Boozer or not. And we also know that Korver's and Harpring's contracts are set to expire. But even after that, the Jazz are seriously BONED for the next two or three years if they match, due not just to Boozer, but also (even more so) due to Kirilenko. In 2010-11, he's scheduled to make $17.8 frakking million. Add in D-Will at $15M, Memo at $11M, and Millsap at $8M, and, well, that sucks. A lot. As in, we might not even be able to field a full roster.
Okay, that's an exaggeration, but here's what we're looking at:
AK: $17.8M
DWill: $15.2M
Memo: $11M
Millsap: $8M
CJ: $3.7M
Ronnie B: $3.8M just as qualifying offer, probably much more (he'll be a restricted free agent, like Millsap is now)
The Koof: $1.3M
Maynor: $1.4M
Knicks draft pick: $1.5-2M
Total: approximately $62-64M for 9 players
Estimated luxury tax level: $65-69M
Now we're looking at signing like four or five scrubs, at less than $500K each, just to field a full roster of 13 players and avoid the luxury tax again. OUCH.
It gets much better in 2011-12, once Kirilenko's giant millstone of a contract is gone:
DWill: $16.6M
Memo: $11M
Millsap: $8.6M
CJ: $3.7M
The Koof: $2.2M
Maynor: $1.5M
Knicks pick: $2M
Total: approx. $46M
Then we'd be well under the cap and have freedom enough to do whatever. But we'd also have only 6 or 7 players under contract (DWill, Memo, Millsap, CJ, The Koof, Maynor, Knicks pick).
As it stands right now, matching on Millsap and doing nothing else to cut salary will cost us the luxury tax this year, and, unless we manage to move AK, next year as well. All that, and we probably won't even have a very competitive team in 2010, as we'll have to get by with whomever we can sign for peanuts. Forget about trades/free agency -- we'll struggle to sign warm bodies at all.
I still want Millsap here, and I don't think, in a vacuum, this contract is too crazy for him as our starter. But if we match... well, I don't envy Kevin O'Connor. Or Greg Miller. Because they're gonna have to get used to being a lot poorer. And unless some other significant moves are made, we'll all have to get used to cheering for what will probably a much worse basketball team.
All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.
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I voted no.
Unless the Jazz find a taker for Boozer (that gives us some cap space), I’d pass.
True Blue Jazz
Bucco Ball
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RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
by UtesFan89 on Jul 11, 2009 6:51 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I voted yes, assuming Booze will be moved.
I'll make it coach.
by MTN on Jul 11, 2009 11:21 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about
You give Boozer to Houston, Portland gets Battier and Landry, Utah gets Travis Outlaw and Portlands 2010 1st rd pick
Draft Cole Aldrich 2010
by jlarose78 on Jul 12, 2009 9:54 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Portland's pick will be pretty low; I am assuming they'll do well this year. Why would Houston give up Battier?
I'll make it coach.
by MTN on Jul 12, 2009 10:03 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because him & Ariza
both play the same position?
And isn’t Battier kinda old now?
True Blue Jazz
Bucco Ball
I'm on Twitter
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
by UtesFan89 on Jul 12, 2009 11:53 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
I was surprised, i thought everyone was going to say to match….
It’s a high price for Portland to pay for their backup power forward…
by sherbs on Jul 11, 2009 7:30 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
It makes me wonder
if the Jazz should have pulled the trigger on that AK for Marion deal with Phoenix a few years back.
by Vromanite on Jul 11, 2009 10:55 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Moral of this story...
move AK too. Maybe Chicago would take AK and Booze for Hinrich, Tyrus AND Tim? Screw Portland and their “offer they can’t refuse” tactics.
I'll make it coach.
by MTN on Jul 11, 2009 11:22 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
That wouldn't really work
Teams over the cap have to match salaries +/- 10%. AK + Boozer =/= Hinrich + Thomas + Thomas. Teams under the cap can make lopsided trades where cap room is exchanged for salary. The main reason why the Blazers are even in the discussion is that they are one of the only teams with cap room that would be able to offer cap relief.
I’m also pretty sure that Chicago wants nothing to do with AK’s contract.
by ninjasocks on Jul 11, 2009 4:51 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think anybody will want anything to do with AK's contract.
I wasn’t around at the time he signed, but as a somewhat new Jazz fan (last couple seasons) I can’t imagine what made this a good idea to begin with.
by Bobby Joness on Jul 11, 2009 6:41 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was the same reason why Marion was looking for a max contract extension in 2007
At one point, they were pretty special players able to defend the 3 and the 4 effectively, shoot the 3 and work under the hoop. At some point, though, either opponents figured them out or their athleticism dropped off.
by ninjasocks on Jul 11, 2009 7:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
at some point...
… AK hurt his knee, and that was the end of that. We used to have a promo commercial where AK flies in for a “hammer dunk” (we’ll miss Hot Rod, no?) and it was the next year he got hurt. He’s never returned to that level of aggressiveness and confidence.
I'll make it coach.
by MTN on Jul 12, 2009 12:00 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marion was also "injured" when he left Phoenix for Miami in 2007-8
It was the first time he missed more than a couple of games due to injury. Either he was malingering because he was unhappy or his body was starting to break down at about age 30 (which is the start of the decline for many athletes).
by ninjasocks on Jul 12, 2009 2:36 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
(I don't do numbers - thank you for the gracious explanation.)
Any time contract values are being calculated, you should all ignore anything I say.
I'll make it coach.
by MTN on Jul 11, 2009 11:58 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ziller's breakdown of the Millsap deal
Check it out. He, like Hollinger, says the hit to the luxury tax does NOT include the signing bonus:
The ploy (which some have called “brilliant”) by the cap experts in Portland was to not only front-load the Millsap offer, but to make a substantial portion of it a “signing bonus,” a tool infrequently used in the NBA. John Hollinger of ESPN.com has done the math for us, and reports that the offer sheet is four years for $28 million, plus a $6 million signing bonus.
But signing bonuses don’t count against a team’s salary cap in total in the year paid. The cap hit is spread over the life of the contract. So, depending on how front-loaded the deal is, the cap figure is only likely to be $8.3 million in 2009-10. (Hollinger indicates the cap hit for ’09-10 is $7.7 million, which would indicate the deal is not front-loaded.)
Whatever the case, that $6 million signing bonus is not an extra $6 million luxury tax hit to the Jazz, though it may look as such. It might be rough for the Jazz to pay out a lump sum like that because the signing bonus, in real terms, is actual money that needs to be paid. But as a successful NBA franchise, they can handle it.
Interesting. All those Blazer fans who keep throwing out figures of $20M or more in tax costs… well, they would appear to be wrong. Then again, no one knows the precise terms of the contract yet.
Uh, do you think you could draw me like a ninja?
by Shums on Jul 11, 2009 2:54 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
The signing bonus' cap hit is prorated over the life of the contract, but is paid upfront
The year one cap hit (salary +1/4 of the signing bonus) will be $7.7 million, which will incur a tax penalty of $7.7 million because the Jazz are already over the cap. The $6 million signing bonus is paid upfront, so that the year one costs will be $7.7 million +$7.7 million + $4.5 million (signing bonus minus amount covered in cap hit). This adds up to a year one cost of $19.1 million, which is the front-loaded part.
The remaining years will have $8-10 million cap hits but the actual salary will be a little less (-1/4 of the signing bonus).
by ninjasocks on Jul 11, 2009 5:00 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The "toxic" part is that the Jazz ownership will have to come up with an extra $19 million this year
on top of a $70 million payroll in a rough economy.
by ninjasocks on Jul 11, 2009 5:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention the money they miss out on by not being under the luxury tax
"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein
by Garden of ODEN on Jul 13, 2009 12:22 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
8 Mil a year for a double double PF...
Not bad…..good contract. 8 mil a year is not bad at all. That is a good price for a cornerstone on your starting lineup. He has proved to be as good as Boozer and he is younger. He doesnt have the scoring skills as Boozer but he could someday. I dont know after four years though…if he averages a double double for the remainder of his deal he could be demanding AK or McGrady money.
The way I see it….we need to satisfy DWill at all cost. He is our Franchise…he is it! We dont need him looking elsewhere because KOC cant make us a competitive roster. If we match Millsap that will shore up the PF position for the next 4 years. DWill is shored up. Okur is shored up for the next few years. That is PG, PF and C. All three players makes us atleast a threat for the playoffs every year…..then KOC can dedicate his time to find the right missing pieces to get us over the hump. Of course all this goes down the crapper if we cant deal AK….
"You can live for Nothing or die for Something, it's your call" - John Rambo
by Matt_Grbac on Jul 11, 2009 4:34 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
8 Mil a year for a double double PF...
Not bad…..good contract. 8 mil a year is not bad at all. That is a good price for a cornerstone on your starting lineup. He has proved to be as good as Boozer and he is younger. He doesnt have the scoring skills as Boozer but he could someday. I dont know after four years though…if he averages a double double for the remainder of his deal he could be demanding AK or McGrady money.
The way I see it….we need to satisfy DWill at all cost. He is our Franchise…he is it! We dont need him looking elsewhere because KOC cant make us a competitive roster. If we match Millsap that will shore up the PF position for the next 4 years. DWill is shored up. Okur is shored up for the next few years. That is PG, PF and C. All three players makes us atleast a threat for the playoffs every year…..then KOC can dedicate his time to find the right missing pieces to get us over the hump. Of course all this goes down the crapper if we cant deal AK….
"You can live for Nothing or die for Something, it's your call" - John Rambo
by Matt_Grbac on Jul 11, 2009 4:34 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Oops sorry for the Double Post!
"You can live for Nothing or die for Something, it's your call" - John Rambo
by Matt_Grbac on Jul 11, 2009 4:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Millsap is a good player
but he has definitely not proved to be as good as Boozer, and I don’t think he has the room to improve to ever get to that sort of level. The benefit of having Millsap rather than Boozer is that he doesn’t miss half the season injured. Because his last season was so poor in general it’s easy to forget just how good Boozer can be, and Millsap is not even close to that yet.
by sherbs on Jul 11, 2009 6:07 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Contract numbers are out
from Deseret News:
The offer sheet that Millsap, Utah’s backup power forward, signed with Portland on Friday night calls for him to make approximately $6.2 million next season, $6.2 million in 2009-10, $6.7 million in 2010-11 and $7.2 million in 2011-2012 — plus a $5.6 million signing bonus.
Moreover, both the signing bonus and about $4.7 million of the first-season salary — $4,715,400, to be more precise — must be paid with seven days after the contract is approved by the NBA.
That’s right: $10.3 million payable up front, within seven days.
Uh, do you think you could draw me like a ninja?
by Shums on Jul 11, 2009 5:16 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I still don't get Portland
Why didn’t they go for Andre Miller or try to trade for Hinrich? Or throw Jason Kidd a bone, I know he’s old but he gives vet leadership and has at least one more “good” season in him? They need a PG. They have a decent down low game with Aldridge, Oden, and Pryzbilla. It’s not a knock your socks off front line, but adding Millsap doesn’t give them that either. I don’t get where they are coming from. Their first NEED is a PG.
But I guess that is why I get paid what I get paid and why Pritchards gets paid what he does.
I like this for the fact that now the Jazz have to get the ball rolling on what they are going to do with Booze and AK. This next week will be interesting as I am sure the Jazz will make a trade, waive someones contract, or make some move. This next week will cure my desire for Jazz talk in the news.
I really wish that Hinrich, Thomas, Boozer trade was going to happen. I liked it a lot. Freed money up for Millsap and gave us a better interior defender. A win-win in my book.
by P_Dizzle on Jul 11, 2009 8:57 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
or...
why didn’t Portland go for Lamar Odom, or at least throw him a bone? He gives them a better front line then Millsap. I know Odom is from a rival and the team we all hate, but dude was the back bone to the Lakers.
by P_Dizzle on Jul 11, 2009 9:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
From one Portlander's perpective...
Odom was never publicly considered (but who knows what they’re thinking). Still, he made it pretty clear he likes warm weather and the coast, which Portland aint. I don’t see his agent shopping him around much, either.
My understanding is that Portland tried for Hinrich but Chicago wanted too much. But maybe this deal can force Utah to give Chicago too much, or get too little in return (Tim Thomas, for instance).
Most Portland fans would love an upgrade at PG. But just as many saw backup PF as jut as a weakness as well, if not as acute. At center, SF, SG and PG, the Blazers bring back 2nd year players who we hope will improve. At backup PF, we had frustratingly inconsistent play from Outlaw and Frye, who regressed.
"its tough to play with one eye, unless you're a pirate." Delonte West
"una canasta a Pau en la cara" Rudy
by Honka Playboy on Jul 12, 2009 2:14 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The league now knows we're in a tight spot and that we HAVE to get rid of Boozer
which means we will not have the upper hand in negotiating any Boozer trades. I hope the Bulls thing goes through too. I’d love to get Tyrus Thomas….but I think we’ll not get full value for our asset.
I'll make it coach.
by MTN on Jul 12, 2009 12:07 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Full value for Boozer
would simply be to get rid of him. Isn’t that exactly what we were hoping for a couple week ago — that he would just opt out and be done with it? We were about to get nothing in return and we were happy about it.
The thing is, in a trade, we have to take something back. The more useful the player, the better. Failing that, the smaller the contract, the better.
That’s why Tim Thomas wouldn’t have worked. He’s not a good enough player to be useful, and he’s not a small enough contract to be desirable.
Tyrus Thomas, on the other hand, would be both useful and smaller contract-wise.
But the bottom line is, we’re trying to maximize the caliber of player we get in return while minimizing the cost. But we’ll probably have to pick one or the other of those. Either we get a useful player (like Rip Hamilton, for example), but it does nothing to help us financially. Or we finagle a tiny contract, but the player is of no use. There’s really no good solution.
Uh, do you think you could draw me like a ninja?
by Shums on Jul 12, 2009 12:14 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
we all saw this day coming, didn't we.
Too bad we didn’t trade him while he was still injured and had promised to opt-out. I don’t remember when the deadline was, but we could have gotten more than we are now.
I'll make it coach.
by MTN on Jul 12, 2009 12:59 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember when you guys were pissed that he kept saying he was gonna opt out
by Sabonis4Ever on Jul 12, 2009 3:10 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
We were pissed because it was mid-season, because he was still injured, and because Millsap was currently destroying all foes and playing like an All-Star. We were pissed because he said a stupid thing that drew attention back onto himself, even though he was still injured, disrupting the team’s focus and chemistry and creating a distraction that the team didn’t need, and hurting his own trade value.
Oh, and did I mention HE WAS STILL INJURED?
Uh, do you think you could draw me like a ninja?
by Shums on Jul 12, 2009 3:29 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
we were pissed at the timing and the selfishness
of drawing attention to himself on a night when the jazz finally broke out of a slump, NOT at what he said.
oh, and did i mention that he eventually proceeded to screw us by OPTING IN?
by moni on Jul 12, 2009 6:45 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Full Value"
for Boozer is dumping him to Memphis for a 2nd round pick ala Marcus Camby to the Clips. Anything more than that and WE are robbing the other team.
by P_Dizzle on Jul 12, 2009 7:58 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
hahaha
and that, sports fans, is what we call Blazers Edge folks showing up and skewing the poll.
Uh, do you think you could draw me like a ninja?
by Shums on Jul 12, 2009 8:26 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
we would never do such a thing!
lol
...God is good, Beer is GREAT, and people are crazy...
by Coconut Pete on Jul 12, 2009 8:53 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am beggining to think that whichever team Sight you go to
BlazerSedge is There, and they may out number you…
Draft Cole Aldrich 2010
by jlarose78 on Jul 12, 2009 9:59 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Blazers Edge=Big Brother?
I'll make it coach.
by MTN on Jul 12, 2009 10:07 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
They watch over all of us to protect us from the evil lurking among us.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Jul 12, 2009 5:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not our fault that not everyone is enlightened enough to be a Blazer fan...
I kid of course. :P
by JordanLeDoux on Jul 12, 2009 8:53 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
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