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If the Jazz match for Millsap -- then what?

This is just to play devil's advocate to my earlier comments, because I still think this deal isn't altogether unreasonable for Millsap, taken by itself, and it's not as bad as it could be. But taking a closer look at the numbers, I'm having second thoughts. My very-imperfect salary estimates follow. (Feel free to correct me if my numbers are off.) And be warned: it's ugly.

We know about what it will cost to keep Millsap this year, whether we move Boozer or not. And we also know that Korver's and Harpring's contracts are set to expire. But even after that, the Jazz are seriously BONED for the next two or three years if they match, due not just to Boozer, but also (even more so) due to Kirilenko. In 2010-11, he's scheduled to make $17.8 frakking million. Add in D-Will at $15M, Memo at $11M, and Millsap at $8M, and, well, that sucks. A lot. As in, we might not even be able to field a full roster.

Okay, that's an exaggeration, but here's what we're looking at:

AK: $17.8M
DWill: $15.2M
Memo: $11M
Millsap: $8M
CJ: $3.7M
Ronnie B: $3.8M just as qualifying offer, probably much more (he'll be a restricted free agent, like Millsap is now)
The Koof: $1.3M
Maynor: $1.4M
Knicks draft pick: $1.5-2M
Total: approximately $62-64M for 9 players
Estimated luxury tax level: $65-69M


Now we're looking at signing like four or five scrubs, at less than $500K each, just to field a full roster of 13 players and avoid the luxury tax again. OUCH.

It gets much better in 2011-12, once Kirilenko's giant millstone of a contract is gone:

DWill: $16.6M
Memo: $11M
Millsap: $8.6M
CJ: $3.7M
The Koof: $2.2M
Maynor: $1.5M
Knicks pick: $2M
Total: approx. $46M

Then we'd be well under the cap and have freedom enough to do whatever. But we'd also have only 6 or 7 players under contract (DWill, Memo, Millsap, CJ, The Koof, Maynor, Knicks pick).

As it stands right now, matching on Millsap and doing nothing else to cut salary will cost us the luxury tax this year, and, unless we manage to move AK, next year as well. All that, and we probably won't even have a very competitive team in 2010, as we'll have to get by with whomever we can sign for peanuts. Forget about trades/free agency -- we'll struggle to sign warm bodies at all.

I still want Millsap here, and I don't think, in a vacuum, this contract is too crazy for him as our starter. But if we match... well, I don't envy Kevin O'Connor. Or Greg Miller. Because they're gonna have to get used to being a lot poorer. And unless some other significant moves are made, we'll all have to get used to cheering for what will probably a much worse basketball team.

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.

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