2010 NBA Blogger Previews - The Utah Jazz

by Basketball John on Oct 4, 2010 6:22 AM MDT in Utah Jazz - Season Previews

Team Name: The Utah Jazz

Last Year’s Record: 53-29

Key Losses: Carlos Boozer's Injuries (FA, Bulls), Wesley Matthews (RFA, Blazers), Kyle Korver Pink Jersey Sales (FA, Bulls), Ronnie Brewer (Trade, Grizzlies), Eric Maynor (Trade, Thunder), Matt Harpring's Knees/Salary (Trade/Dump, Thunder), Kosta Koufos' Omni/science/presence/potentcy (Trade, Timberwolves), Multiple Game Thread Memes

Key Additions: Al Jefferson (Trade), Raja Bell (FA), Gordon Hayward (Draft #9), Earl Watson (FA), Francisco Elson (FA)

1. What Significant Moves were made during the off-season?

You have to go back to the 2003 off-season, when John Stockton retired and Karl Malone headed to LA, to find more player turnover than the Jazz have had this summer. The carry-overs to the 2004 campaign were Carlos Arroyo, Jarron Collins, Matt Harpring, Andrei Kirilenko, Greg Ostertag, and DeShawn Stevenson. For those that aren't Jazz fans, care to guess how many games that 2004 squad won? *

The Jazz are bringing back just seven players from last year and it could have been less if Kyrylo Fesenko hadn't re-signed (though he was expected to or have his offer matched) and if Andrei Kirilenko had been sent to Denver as part of the Carmelo Anthony trade.

Gone are Boozer, Korver, and Matthews. That's a large loss to absorb. Credit Kevin O'Connor for getting the Bulls to agree to a sign and trade for Boozer where the Jazz sent Boozer and his contract, along with a draft pick, in exchange for a traded player exception. He was able to flip that, Kosta Koufos, and a couple of draft picks to the Timberwolves in exchange for Al Jefferson.

O'Connor was also able to snatch fan-favorite Raja Bell from Kobe's grasp in a last-minute deal. He'll replace the departing Wesley Matthews who's heading to Portland after the Blazers continue to use the Jazz as their farm team for two years in a row.

Most Jazz fans, including myself, have come around on Gordon Hayward, the 9th pick in the draft, the last remnant from the Isiah Thomas era with the Knicks. To get a sense of why Jazz fans booed, you have to look at the history of this pick. It was a throw-in back in 2004 when the Jazz acquired it from the Suns. This unprotected first-round pick grew as it became apparent that Knicks were not getting any better and were likely going to be a lottery team by the time it rolled around.

The first phase of the disappointment came when the 2010 Knicks were not as bad as we had hoped they would be. They had no motivation to tank as they weren't going to have that pick. So while #9 isn't bad, it wasn't the 1-3 pick that fans had hoped it would become.

The second shot to the enthusiasm was when the lotto was held and the Jazz didn't move up into the top three picks. Their chances at winning were minuscule, but disappointing none-the-less.

So when the team's glaring need, a big man to match up with the rest of the Western Conference (Lakers), was passed up for a kid who had just made a name for himself with a NCAA run, it was underwhelming. The boos were not so much directed at Hayward but at that he wasn't a big man.

All signs from his summer league performance and the talk from players and coaches point to guy who will be fine with the Jazz. Whether another wing or player should have been taken over him will have to be decided in a couple of years.

This off-season just isn't one that Jazz fans are accustomed to. For one of the most consistent teams in the league, from the owners to the coach to the play calls to the fans, this many new faces just isn't heard of in Utah.

2. What are the team’s biggest strengths?

Right now, it's personal chemistry with the players. The Jazz are going to take a bit of time to get into a spot where the offense and defense are on the same page, but off the court, this may be the most close-knit group they've had. If there were any questions as to whose team this was, that's gone now with Boozer in Chicago. Deron has rallied the troops and things will be on his shoulders.

It might take a few months, but the Jazz offense will become their biggest strength. We should see a more distributed work load with scoring. Jefferson was brought in in part to replace Boozer's production. While he'll get the majority of Boozer's points, look for CJ Miles and Paul Millsap to receive some trickle down.

You also have to remember that a large portion of this group's core, Deron Williams, Paul Millsap, C.J. Miles, Andrei Kirilenko, and Mehmet Okur have been playing together now for at least four years, some five. Bell has been with the team before and should remember how to ride that bike. Really, it's going to come down to how fast Jefferson can pick things up.

3. What are the team’s biggest weaknesses?

Right now there's just too much unknown about this team. Can Jefferson learn the offense? Can they become a better defensive team in the middle? Fans have a realistic expectation about how this new team will do but at the same time, it's going to be a disappointment if they're not challenging for the two-seed.

If they get out to a slow start, some of those losses could come back to haunt them when it comes to playoff positioning.

While it's never been a staple of the Jazz offense, the Jazz are hurting for a three-point shooter. They lost two of their best in Matthews and Korver. Bell is a career 41% three-point shooter so he will help offset some of that. Mehmet Okur is another that can make the three, but he won't be back with the team until December or January. Williams could also shoulder some of the three-point shot load. CJ Miles will take a lot of threes, but his percentage has declined the past two seasons.

The Jazz have ranked 25th, 26th, and 26th in the league in 3PAs over the past three seasons; don't expect that to change in 2010-11.

4. What are the goals for this team?

To begin the season it's to assimilate the new guys and to jell as a team on both sides of the ball. With a game or two potentially meaning the difference between a first-round home court playoff series or facing the Lakers again, they can ill afford to drop any games early on.

It should be a great race in the Northwest again this season as the Jazz will fight with Portland, Oklahoma City, and Denver for the division title. Winning the division and gaining a first-round, home-court playoff series is within their reach. If the goal for every team is to go as far as possible in the playoffs, then having those things happen are essential for the Jazz.

5. Will Kyrylo Fesenko be known more for his quotes or his play on the court this season?

It really is a perfect storm for Fesenko to make an impact on the team this season. First, he's signed the qualifying offer from the team and will become an unrestricted free agent next summer, so there's some extra motivation to play well. Next, he's come to camp having dropped 20 lbs. showing that he's committed in part to becoming a better player. Finally, with Okur out until January or December, he's going to be seeing a lot more minutes than he normally would have. Battling vet Francisco Elson for those minutes should provide some extra motivation as well.

Fess is never going to be a Shaq-like player, though he does a spot-on impersonation with free-throw percentage, but he has a chance to step up his game and make a bit of a name for himself on the court.

Prediction

*That 2003-04 team was supposed to be the worst in the league. Instead, they won 42 games and finished a game out of the playoffs.

We've been able to pencil in about 50-55 wins in for the Jazz for the past few years. Last year they were predicted by most to win around 46-48 and they went on to win 53. I had picked them to win 54.

I'll put them this season to win about the same. They might start off slow but they'll have their traditional month or two mid-season where they lose just a handful of games.

53-29

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Comments

This one is pretty good

You forgot brewer

CJ MILES 2011 MIP

by cjblockingfisher on Oct 4, 2010 7:32 AM MDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs

Brewer is not an off-season loss

He was traded last season during the season.

Follow me on Twitter: AllThatAmar
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Really, I'm totally not lonely or anything . . .

by AllThatJazzBasketball on Oct 4, 2010 7:35 AM MDT up reply actions

My bad

I see he mentioned Maynor and Harpring . . . so Brewer has a right to be up here too.

you get a star.

Follow me on Twitter: AllThatAmar
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E-Mail me at: allthatjazzbasketball@hotmail.com
Really, I'm totally not lonely or anything . . .

by AllThatJazzBasketball on Oct 4, 2010 7:35 AM MDT up reply actions

Yep, forgot him. I'll get him put in.

SLCDunk.com, The Utah Jazz on SBNation

by Basketball John on Oct 4, 2010 8:36 AM MDT up reply actions

Raja should be fine in the offense

Though it’s worth remembering that the first time he was on the team, the Jazz were actually running a modified version of their standard offense that was designed to compensate for the dearth of talent at the point.

by El Aguacil on Oct 4, 2010 7:43 AM MDT reply actions

we’ll see what happens in denver but fes showed that some beef in the paint is effective against them, and he should be effective against teams where he can use his athleticism to just physically outmatch opponents who rely on aggression rather than skill.

by JazzMoney on Oct 4, 2010 8:02 AM MDT reply actions

Excellent post. It’s simple and informative. Big Al’s aclimatizing IS key. Also I would think attitude/swagger is another key. Raja brings that.

"Utah State! Hey! Aggies All The Way!"

by Kurt Adison on Oct 4, 2010 8:42 AM MDT reply actions

I got a good chuckle

Bell has been with the team before and should remember how to ride that bike.

So, are you saying that you think he will remember the offense easily, or is this an allusion to how much PT you think he will get? Did he ever hit the bikes when he was here before?

by nel812 on Oct 4, 2010 10:31 AM MDT reply actions

The regular season matters, but it's not the main goal

The Jazz can finish 4th or 5th as long as they are ready for the postseason. If the Jazz are slowed by the jelling process early in the season, but start winning consistently afterwards, I think I will be satisfied. What matters the most is wether the jazz will be better when the playoffs start than they were at the beginning of last season’s playoffs and wether they are ready to compete with the lakers. Personally, I think they will be. I think a lot of people, including Jazz fans, are missing the fact that, when we are healthy, the Lakers are not THAT much better than us. And, since Al can handle the lakers frontline better than boozer, both on the offensive and defensive end, and that we have Raja, who is a proven Kobe defender, we might have a real chance at beating them.

About 3 point shooting: I think that, while the Jazz will probably miss Korver and Matthews, Raja will proably do a good job, along with CJ, Deron and Hayward. It’s true that CJ’s 3pt shooting hasn’t been good the past few seasons. But it should be noted that his percentage suffered greatly when he had his mid-season slump. He was taking bad shots, and taking them frequently. Now, he has improved his overall game and shot selection, and that will help him be a better 3pt shooter than he has ever been IMO. Also, Hayward could be a nice surprise.

It should also be noted that , while the Jazz might not have an answer for skilled 7-footers inside, the team’s overall defense is likely to improve due to an increase in Millsap’s and AK’s playing time. Because of Okur’s injury and Korver’s departure, it’s likely that they will both get more minutes.

While our 3pt shooting will be worse, the team’s offense will be better because of Al’s height and the improvement of his game due to sloan’s system and deron’s passing. Also, I expect CJ to be better overall, because of the way his game improved in the final months of the season and the work he put in during the offseason. The team will rebound more because of all the time Al and Millsap will spend on the court together.

If Ak can consistently get more than 30 minutes of play, I think he will make a big difference in the team’s offense, its energy, and, most importantly, its defense.

We have seen how AK can get close to his all-star form when given enough playing time. Let’s hope he gets it. If he does, I think that will make us the second best team in the west, without question, even if the standings don’t show it(remember the team could take time to learn the offense and jell during the season).

I agree with your record prediction, but I think the team is more likely to go to the WCF than not. Unless we meet the lakers earlier, in which case I think the Jazz will take the lakers to at least 6 games, and possibly seven. We’re not better than the Lakers, but this is the closest it has been since they were given Pau Gasol I think.

by Isaxx on Oct 5, 2010 10:30 PM MDT reply actions

For some teams, seeding doesn't matter, but for the Jazz it matters enormously.

For one, the Lakers are a lock to get the #1 seed. They win on the road, they have depth and talent and they have a favorable schedule at times.

So if the Jazz don’t get the 2 or 3 seed, then the latest they can meet the lakers is the second round. Secondly, the Jazz haven’t been a good road team for 10 years. Last season, they were a little better, but still not good. So they need homecourt advantage. The playoffs are all about matchups, not who is playing the best. Who is playing the best is important, but not as important as matchups. We need the 2nd or 3rd seed so that we can have homecourt advantage and a chance at meeting the Lakers in the WCF instead of the 2nd round.

The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.

by clarkpojo on Oct 6, 2010 6:33 AM MDT up reply actions

I'd say the Lakers are a lock to be the best team in the West

But with Bynum out until December and Bryant’s knee at 60%, I’m not convinced they’re a lock for the top seed. Injuries may keep them from being the top regular season team.

by El Aguacil on Oct 6, 2010 7:32 AM MDT up reply actions