What's Wrong with the Jazz - Yucca version
by Yucca Man on Nov 8, 2010 2:05 PM MST
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PrintClark just posted a great piece analyzing our team's frustrating beginning. I wanted to just go a little bit further ... Clark showed that AK's shooting much worse in the paint than previously, but why? Deron has the same problem? Why? Deron, AK, Raja, and Millsap are coughing up turnovers at absurdly high rates (all are currently career highs). Why? And what's with the rebounding situation? 20 offensive rebounds to freaking Golden State? Why?
Well, let's go back to that Golden State debacle, because I think it shows exactly why the team is struggling, but it also shows exactly why this isn't time to panic.
Rebounds
Jazz gave up 20 offensive rebounds to Golden State. As Locke retweeted (from Hollinger), GS had the worst rebounding differential in NBA history last year.
So what?
The truth is that stat from Locke and Hollinger is the single most stupid and misused stat I've seen so far in this young season.
This year's GS team is completely different from last year's. Biedrins is starting and playing 27 minutes per game (12 rebounds per 36 minutes for his career). David Lee was signed as a free agent and is a very good rebounder (11.5 per 36 minutes for his career). Dorell Wright (another FA) is a very good rebounding small forward. Gadzuric (their backup C and another FA pickup) averages 10.7 rebounds per 36 minutes. This Warriors team happens to be 4th in the league in rebounding right now, and looking at their players they will outrebound just about everybody they play.
So while giving up so many rebounds was a big reason the Jazz lost, and while their rebounding can improve (Jazz are currently 12th in the league), the situation was not nearly as bad as it seemed.
Turnovers
When 4 guys are suddenly coughing up career highs in turnovers, something is going on. And it's not just slight increases: Deron's up 80%, AK's giving up 63% more than he has the previous 5 years, Raja's up 72%.
Turnovers alone kept the Jazz from winning against Golden State (despite giving up the 20 offensive rebounds)
So what's going on?
Well, the answer was put on display in the GS game. AK, as he is wont to do, made a brilliant clutch play — a great drive to the hole and spectacular pass to Al for a wide open dunk. Except Al dropped the pass out of bounds. Seriously, I believe that the Jazz would have won the game had Al caught the ball. But enough with the whatifs.
The point is that the new guys (particularly Al and Elson) aren't used to the snappy interior passes the Jazz use. So there are two options — pass crisply anyway and watch the ball bop off their hands or pass more slowly and let the other team deflect the ball.
And that's what is happening. I've been stunned with how many Jazz passes have been deflected this year. For 5 games I've been going crazy, trying to figure out why the passes are suddenly so lazyish — all until our club-handed new centers have put their talents on display.
Lousy interior FG%
Millsap's shooting 70% in the paint. Al has slightly more refined moves and is taller. He's shooting 51%.
Well, this is an area where Al's trying to overcome 6 years of bad habits. Watch him. Usually he makes a quick move to his preferred shot. If it's not available (usually because of a double-team), then he suddenly pulls out his post moves to try to get some shot, any shot, up. He doesn't look to pass, unless it's just a lame "back to the PG" pass to Deron to reset the offense.
Compare Al's post moves to Millsap's. Millsap uses his moves to get the shot he wants — not as a secondary plan when the preferred shot isn't there. Instead, if the preferred shot isn't there Millsap makes a nice interior pass (often to Big Al). That's why Millsap is suddenly giving out nearly 4 assists per game. He uses post moves to get a good shot, and he makes an interior pass to the open guy when the defense takes his shot away.
But Al's getting better. Watch the 2nd half against the Clippers again. Al was suddenly using his moves to get a preferred shot.
Paint FG% of the Guards and Wings
Two problems. First, have you noticed how crowded the paint is whenever a Jazzman drives in? Have you noticed how many defenders are there?
We all know Al's post game is different than Boozer's. Boozer did the high post on the elbow. Al's used to the low block.
Well, the spacing on the offense is kind of screwy because of it, and points in the paint are harder to come by because there's a ton of defenders there. It's particularly noticeable with Deron (who uses drives to the paint as a major part of his offense) and AK (who thrives on finding weakside holes for easy dunks).
But that's only part of the problem.
The second is transition and fast break points. There are no stats to back me up, so I'm just relying on what I see. But the Jazz aren't getting awesome shots early in the offense — not like they did last year. I've been watching for it, and it's really noticeable. The Jazz don't get dunks from 2-on-2 or 2-on-3 breaks. They're not getting easy dunks before the defense sets up. Over and over, Deron rushes up court, tries to make something happen ... but then backs out to start the half-court set because nothing was there.
Again, blame goes to the new guys. The Jazz run breaks differently from other teams. Their spacing is different, the lanes filled are different, and the end result (go hard to the basket and then clear out for the next guy) is different. The new guys are not doing it correctly, and it stops the transition and fast break points from happening.
And whose stats get hurt the most? Well, who are the team's best open court and fast break guys? Deron, CJ, Millsap, and AK.
So is it shocking that these are the guys' whose close range FG% is down?
Al and Raja, we're looking at you
Raja, you have to remember you're not on the Suns anymore. On the Jazz quick, not-so-good shots gives the other team easy transition buckets (I believe this is why the Jazz are less effective defensively with Raja on the floor — it has nothing to do with his actual defense, but it's a result of a half-court offense not quite working right).
But a lot comes back to poor Big Al. His game needs more work than I expected. He needs to react to defenses, spot open guys, catch passes, use post moves more effectively, box out better, etc., etc., etc. His passing is particularly worthless right now.
The bad news
These things won't magically go away. The Jazz will give up a lot of turnovers for a while. The new guys won't magically start spacing things correctly — so don't expect interior scoring to suddenly become more effective.
Just expect it. There will be good days and bad, but expect some of these issues to continue coming up.
The good news
They will get better eventually. The spacing will improve, bit by bit, as the season goes on (it already has), and that alone will change everything.
The new guys will get used to the kind of passes Sloan's offense demands, and the turnovers will go down.
The team will run breaks and transition better as the players continue practicing what they're supposed to do, and the interior FG% will go up.
As the team gets more fast break points and as Al makes interior passes more, Millsap's stats and effectiveness could actually increase. Crazy to imagine, but it's true.
And I expect the rebounding to improve as well. Al will box out better, because Sloan will hammer it on him (remember Al has never had a decent coach or team — ever).
The improvements won't happen immediately, but they will happen.
And if they don't, well January is about the time to start freaking out if there isn't noticeable improvement.
Final prospects
So the Jazz are a .500 team right now. Well, they were worse at this point last year. They had a worse record, worse chemistry, and no noticeable improvement.
Even with the GS debacle, the Jazz had a much better week 2 than week 1. There are already signs that they are moving fairly quickly in the right direction (there's no way last year's Jazz team — at this point in the season — could beat a playoff team on the road by 20. No way at all).
And the team's ceiling still hasn't changed. They are ridiculously talented. They just have to put it together.
Like I wrote last week, they're like a brilliant student of mine who will accomplish anything once he gets his head on straight consistently.
So instead of watching these early games to see perfection, I'm watching to see if progress is being made.
And so far, it has.
All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.
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Nice post
Rec’d
I don’t have anything to add, but i can’t wait to see how Memo fits into all of this.
Yeah, I'm also interested to see how Memo will fit in.
@Yucca. In your opinion, at season’s end will the Jazz regret trading for Jefferson? Will they prefer Boozer at that point?
As for rebounding, it will get better as the team makes it a priority. . The team as a whole needs to do better (Millsap and Jefferson are personally in the top 20) But having top rebounders don’t translate into wins. Minnesota currently is the top rebounding team—they are doing awful. Houston is 5th—they’ve only won a game. So while rebounding is personal priority for me, I recognize that it is only one of many factors that contribute to wins, so it is difficult for me to point to that (or any other single factor) as the cause of the Jazz’s woes.
Andrei Kirilenko is Russia's most important export
If the Jazz do regret trading for Jefferson, it won't have anything to do with Boozer. Although I think Al will pan out.
I know this question was for Yuccaman and he answered below. But Jefferson does give them defensive options and offensive options that they didn’t have with Boozer. And having Jefferson instead of Boozer has allowed Millsap to really blossom. And even though we don’t look like we are playing great defense, the numbers don’t lie. We are holding teams to lower scoring outputs per possession.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
You're absolutely right, Boozer and Al were totally different issues
They got linked just because the pundits started talking about replacing Boozer with Al. That’s not what happened. Millsap replaced Boozer. Al was brought in to fill the gaping hole at center.
And yes, the defense is improved.
And Al should turn out very well. In some ways he already is. The issue right now is that his flaws happen to have a greater effect on the Jazz offense than anyone expected.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I suspected Jefferson could give the offense problems when I heard the "KEvin McHale black hole" comparisons
Just throwing the ball to someone and letting them their thing would not work in Jazz basketball. But I also though that Jefferson is coachable enough and not too self centered to work on playing team ball. I don’t think we’ll ever have issues with him that some players give their teams. He seems like a good guy.
I think we accepted that it would take time for him to adjust, but in our hype are getting impatient (some of us) We’re only 6 games in. I think we’ll see a big difference between 6 game Jefferson and 60 game Jefferson
Andrei Kirilenko is Russia's most important export
Great points.
You said very briefly what I wanted to get across:
Instead of watching this team expecting perfection, watch this team with some understanding of why things aren’t perfect right now, accept and expect the imperfections because they aren’t going to disappear in a magic whiff, and finally watch to see how they progress from game 6 to 60. Because kicking butt at game 60 is the real goal.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Seeding in the west is key, and I'd rather have the Jazz figure it out sooner rather than later
But no one needs to look further than last year’s Boston team to show that getting hot at the right time is key to the playoffs.
Even if the Jazz only manage .500 ball till March then kick it up they can still make a deep playoff run.
I believe we have the talent and parts to compete with any team in this league. SOme will always give us problems sure, but could a red hot Jazz take it to the Lakers? I have to believe that a developed Fes, an integrated Jefferson and a healthy Okur and AK gives us a chance.
Andrei Kirilenko is Russia's most important export
I really like Memo off the bench
Millsap is showing me a little bit more than I thought he had. I think once Al gets the offense down Memo comes off the bench and becomes that other scorer (Maybe allowing CJ in to the Starting lineup? – I think he needs more minutes with the starters) that the Jazz need. I’m not sure I love CJ coming in feeling like he needs to produce points every night. He plays better when he just lets the game come to him, but stays aggressive. When CJ plays well the Jazz seem to play well, though that is too simplistic.
Having Memo come off the bench will likely mean the end of any Fesenko/Elson playing time, but is probably worth it. I see Memo being very effective in that role if he is ok with not being a starter. Until further notice I think Sap has earned that role, and Jefferson is obviously going to stay in the Starting lineup.
by davidthecomposer on Nov 8, 2010 8:30 PM MST up reply actions
I agree with liking Memo off the bench
I’ve thought his game was perfect for the bench for a long, long time. And I think he’ll be great this year, once he gets all the way back to speed.
And I think Memo will be okay with not being the starter.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Getting Memo back will open up the offense immediately. I hope he returns and ditches the pump fake and just lets the 3 bombs fly.
I actually, just hope he returns. As for coming off the bench, I agree. I think he will start coming off the bench. The nice thing is that if we meet the Lakers again in the playoffs, hopefully in the WCF, then we can start Jefferson and Okur to match up and bring Millsap off the bench and then play the two best producing bigs for the majority of the minutes. But if Jefferson can figure out how to pass out of double teams more effectively, then Jefferson and Okur are going to make a great frontcourt offensively.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
Jefferson/Okur/Millsap
I think you might even want to play Millsap against Odom. I think he does a better job against him than AK or CJ or anyone else. So if Odom is starting, that would be a Millsap/Okur/Big Al lineup.
I hope that practice that quite a bit when Okur gets back.
I think the Jazz will be better off by late December. Even right now, I think they are okay. The players like each other, and the talent is there. The other thing that is good rig now is the players aren’t redundant – they complement each other and allow everyone to contribute as much as possible. That would not be possible with the Boozer/Millsap redundancy issue.
I think well just see more turnovers an we’d like, and much more inconsistency. At least for a while.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I agree with all of this. My next post was going to be on bettering spacing to increase driving lanes and decrease deflections in the paint.
The thing is that even if Jefferson continues to shoot hook shots against double teams, then AK and Millsap should be crashing the offensive glass and should get a lot more rebounds, due to the double teams. We started doing this in the second half of the Clippers game with great success. It’s an effort thing that just needs to be there.
We finished with 17 offensive rebounds and I don’t think we had more than 6 in the first half. We had like 4 offensive rebounds on one possession in the second half.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
Nice analysis
To me, what improvement for practically any sports team boils down to this:
Better chemistry (or team play) and better fundamentals (or individual play).
Improve Chemistry
Benefit #1: Fewer turnovers
Benefit #2: More assists
Benefit #3: Better FG %
Improve Individual Fundamentals
Area #1: Better rebounding/boxing out
Area #2: Better shot selection / make OPEN shots
I’ve definitely been impressed with the defense so far. There are occasional lapses, but for the most part, the effort is there and there aren’t too many mistakes. The one part I might say could use improvement is cutting down the And 1’s. In many cases, it’s a matter of trusting the weak side help D, which is MUCH better this year than last. That must feel weird to D Will and CJ, but they’ll get used to it.
Big Al love
Lets give Big Al a break. He has played 6 games in a new system with a new coach and all new teammates, who aren’t used to having a low post player to play with, and all he has done is average 18.3 PPG, 9.5 RPG, and 1.5 Blks, even with his 6 point opener. We are acting like Al is the problem on offense and that he has stopped all of the offensive movement just trying to get his own shots. The truth is a lot of our wings look like they don’t know what to do after they throw the ball into Big Al. I know big Al isn’t the best passer, but I think a good portion of the blame needs to go on our perimeter players. CJ, Raja, AK, and Deron have all made good entry passes and then just stayed there. Our wings have always made a living in our offense cutting to the basket, but there were 4 or 5 times in the GS game when we made an entry pass and just stood there on the perimeter. Then we (as fans) get mad when Big Al forces up a shot or just throws it back out to Deron to start over. I think our wings know what he can do inside and they don’t want to get into his way. In the mean time they become stagnant and there aren’t guys cutting and Big Al is left to go one on 3 and doesn’t have any good passing angles to get the ball to teammates. He is being accused of being the reason for creating lulls on offense, but it is just because we got used to doing one thing and Big Al is used to a different thing. It will be a work in progress for a while, but it isn’t just Big Al that needs to make adjustments. Now does Big Al need to look for Millsap on a lot of those plays? Yes, but the wings have to open things up for him too to make it easier on him against the double teams. Yucca Man said "His game needs more work than I expected." I would go with our team needs more work meshing their game with his than we expected. We don’t need Al to change his game that much. We don’t need to turn one of the 3 or 4 true low post players in the league into another high post big man that shots elbow jumpers and drives to the basket. Big Al does need to work on reading the D and being able to pass out of it, but our wings need to help him ,by giving him more options than tossing it back to Deron and starting over. If I would have told you that Big Al would be averaging nearly 20 and 10 after 6 only games a month ago everybody would have thought that that was a good transition for him. Yet because the Jazz have had three stinkers it has to be the new guys fault. Foget that CJ forgot that we had games the first 2 nights, that AK ’s hair was in his eyes in Denver, or that we don’t have a rotation set, all of these games were Big Al’s fault. All I can say is that Al is who he is and we need to use that to our advantage. The sooner we learn to have some love for Big Al Jefferson and learn how to play with his unique skill set, the sooner we will be moving on up (in the standings).
by BobbyD31 on Nov 9, 2010 9:48 AM MST reply actions 2 recs
Good points.
Our team just needs time.
Andrei Kirilenko is Russia's most important export
Wow, Wall of Text
May I suggest using some paragraph breaks? I tried really hard to read this whole post, but my eyes keep losing their place.
From what I could skim, I don’t think anyone thinks Jefferson is killing the team or being extra hard on him. I think we see him as an area that needs improvement and that could drastically increase the offensive effectiveness of the team. He’s not the only problem, but he’s certainly a problem at the moment. It’s not because we’re blaming the new guy, it’s because we can see that the offense doesn’t run as well as it should when he gets the ball in the post. Eventually, it would be nice to be able to go through Al at some point on most possessions, but right now he’s not capable of handling that. When he gets it figured out, the team will be much better.
20 and 10 but not working with the team isn’t good enough in the long run. Boozer got 20 and 10 and most of us didn’t like him particularly. Big Al’s improving quickly, but he’s still got a way’s to go.
I’m not sure who you think is slamming him.
Sorry for no breaks
The main point in my rant is that the wings haven’t played with a low post player and are a big part in why Big Al isn’t looking looking great.
It is because he is the new guy that we are blaming him. Because we are used to the way the offense has been run the past few years. We look at the guys around Big Al and have seen the way they run the O so he has to be the problem.
My other main point is Big Al is always going to be different in the offense than Boozer or Millsap. We just need to learn how to use a low post scorer and make cuts and movements accordingly. We haven’t run the flex with the low post option really since Shandon Anderson. Right now we just have been throwing it down low and watching what Al is going to do.
Al has a lot to learn, but we have a lot to learn about him to. The good thing about the flex is it is based on movement and reads, which Al needs to learn. The point I am making is everyone else needs to learn the new reads and options that are available with a low post force like Big Al.
Don't worry about the no breaks, it's easy to get into what you're typing and forget
Great points BobbyD31 (you should do some posts, you have good things to say)
Jefferson is the first low post player we’ve had in years. I was too young to really remember Malone’s playing style, but I don’t think he was as low post oriented as Jefferson. From what I understand, Jefferson is low post in the way Olajuwan, McHale, was. THe JAzz offense is just not used to that.
It is a unique weapon to have as fewer players have true low post abilities (I read a great article about this on Foxsports, I’m going try and find it now)
Once we maximize the best things of Jefferson’s game and as he adapts to our offense, I thiknk it’ll open a whole new dimension that the Jazz have been lacking
Andrei Kirilenko is Russia's most important export
My point isn't to blame Al
It’s to identify a cause.
I watch the team, the kind of shots they get, the effectiveness of the scoring, etc. — when it goes through AK and Millsap. I remember how effective it has been in the past.
And then I see how much everything falls apart when it goes into Al. And I see the ridiculous number of deflected passes. This is not consistent with anything we’ve seen from Deron, Millsap, AK, and all in the past. And it doesn’t happen as much when Al’s not a focal point.
In that context, it follows that Al’s presence is a cause of the problem. Completely his fault? Not at all. You’re right the other guys aren’t rotating and moving as much. But it’s still the cause.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
My point isn't to get blame off of Al
It’s to identify a solution.
I also have watched the team get the shots that they are used to getting without Big Al on the floor. I see the cuts they make and the ball movement. I also remember how effective it has been in the past.
Then I watch Big Al make post moves that we haven’t seen around here since A.D. I see the up and under, the drop step, and the baby hook. He can score so easy and make defenders look foolish. But then I look back at the replays and notice that everyone is just trying to stay out of his way. Then when double teams come our guards don’t seem to know where to cut the movement stops and Al is faced with either forcing shots or trying to kick it out to a stationary wing player. And I ask myself, why is AK just standing there? He wouldn’t do that if Millsap had the ball.
In that context, it follows that the wings not being used to playing with a guy that can command a double team in the low post is a problem. Completely their fault? Not at all. Al does need to learn more of the O and he needs to get better at passing out of the double teams. I 100% agree with this.
So I guess you are right in that all of the problems stem back to Al commanding a double team. So if that is the cause of the problem, the solution is we need to move into positions on the floor that Al can make passes to get us easy looks. If he has two guys on him and we have good quick movements, we can get even easier buckets than we do just running through the offense. Good spacing and movement makes everybody a better passer. Al isn’t a great passer so our wings need to cut and space the floor well so that Al is making easy passes. The reason for all of the deflections is that we are so stagnant on the perimeter that the defense has more predictable and easier rotations to recover from their double teams.
The Big Picture
The Jazz don’t seem to have a solid identity yet. They are in the phase of finding their identity and gelling as a team. Greg Anthony picked Utah as the sleeper team that will improve drastically come December. I’m in agreement.
Second, I attribute a lot of the issues to D-Will. He is the team leader. Turnovers are a result of a lack of mental awareness/strength. D-Will looks less than stellar. And I attribute part of it to him missing the preseason. The problem is, the Jazz relax when they play presumably weak teams (Warriors, Clippers). It’s D-Will’s responsibility to set the tone of the team. He has to be the Kobe or the Jordan and show your teammates that you respect your opponent regardless and go out and play hard. I will always compare D-Will to Chris Paul. Chris Paul actually improved his turnovers to a respectable 1.8 turnovers per game this season. D-Will became worse and more than doubles that at 4.2. He needs to step up, focus and get his turnovers down. Couple of his passes were downright lazy and easily picked off against the Clippers. The one turnover at the end of regulation allowed the Clippers to tie the game and go into overtime.
Turnovers are a problem
And I agree Deron plays down to competition. That’s why he owns Chris Paul, but guys like Ty Lawson score career highs against him.
But I disagree with saying he needs to focus and cut the turnovers. AK, Raja, and Millsap are also turning the ball over at career high rates. When the problem occurs in a single guy, you say it’s the guy’s fault. But when it is happening all over the team – then there is something wonky about the team as a whole.
I say the new guys can’t handle the crisp interior passes, so the passing is slowing down a bit. BobbyD31 (above) thinks it’s because the wings aren’t rotating, screening, and cutting when Al gets the ball, which makes the passing much more predictable for the defense. It’s probably a combo of the two issues.
But the point is it’s not as simple as just focusing and cutting down the turnovers. It’s not just an issue of Deron manning up and being a leader. The players and offensive plan are a little out of whack. Until that changes, the turnovers will be high across the board.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Not to single out a guy. But if you look at the Clippers game. The Jazz came out uninspired and the Clippers (1-5) jumped to a 18 point lead in the first half. Even against the Warriors the Jazz played very very sloppy. The team had 19 turnovers and D-Will had half of it at 8. All I’m saying is, D-Will needs to step up and become the leader. The Jazz can’t come out relaxed against a mediocre/poor team. He has to show the team that he’s focused and display his leadership with example. They could’ve beaten a much improved Warriors team if it weren’t for the mental lapses. When D-Will plays his A-game everyone else will follow. I guess I’m a little too critical and demanding of our star point guard. I still love D-Will, he’s still one awesome, all around point guard and when the Jazz are hungry and focused, they’re pretty much unstoppable. They can score at will (one of the highest scoring teams last season) and pose trouble for the opposing team defensively but they only seem to be interested in the big matchups. Having said that, tonight’s game against the Heat will be an interesting one! Go Jazz!
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