Some Last Thoughts On Ronnie Brewer To the Grizzlies

by Basketball John on Feb 19, 2010 12:00 AM MST Comment 7 comments

No more chocolate milk commercials. No more hearing about how his shooting stroke is different because of a childhood injury. No more "definitely."

I wasn't even going to put up a trade thread today because nothing was suppose to happen. All of the sudden Stein and Ford from ESPN start mentioning Boozer to Miami and it was on. For the next two hours the NBA Twittersphere was on fire and the Jazz segment was on the edge of their seats.

So imagine how most felt when just as the Boozer talk was dying down this came across from Siler,

Word that Ronnie Brewer might have gotten traded. Again, trying to get confirmation.

Whaaaat? Where did that come from? I knew there had been talk last month about Memphis trying to get Ronnie for a draft pick; it wasn't that again, was it?

As it turned out, it was.

Let's just get right into it, was this a basketball move or a financial move? I don't think you can say it's either one way or the other; it's a little of both. But here's the question to ask that might clear it up: If the Jazz are under the cap, do they make this move? I say the answer to that is no.

From what I've read, this was almost a literal last-minute deal. The Jazz and Grizz brass have had discussions before about this same deal, so something like this could go down pretty quickly. The previous offers had involved either the Lakers' or Nuggets' pick that Memphis has. Kevin O'Connor turned those down and instead wanted Memphis' own pick. That was turned down by the Grizz and that was that.

Up until 15 minutes before 3 p.m. Eastern, the Jazz were willing to head past the trade deadline with the team as constituted and pay the luxury tax. O'Connor and Greg Miller have come out and stated that they're fine with paying the tax this year and possible next. They liked the team as it is now and didn't see many options for change.

However, it sounded like had the Grizzlies been willing to give up their pick back in January, it would have been done. So when they got on the phone today and called the Jazz, it was a pretty quick yes from the front office.

You can't discount the basketball side of things. We did have too many wings. The weird thing is that in the pre-season, we had just 1 healthy wing under contract, Brewer. Korver was out hurt. CJ got hurt in the first game in Europe. Wes Matthews was just a training camp invite.

Once Miles and Korver came back, there was the jamming of the logs.

So why did Brewer go and not one of the others? First and foremost, the Jazz weren't trying to get rid of any of them. it was the Grizzlies who approached the Jazz and they wanted Brewer.

Why not CJ? The biggest reason is his contract. He still has $7.4M owed to him over the next 2 seasons with a team option for the third. Brewer is a restricted free-agent this year and depending on how he does, Memphis can match offers for him. Second, if you were another team right now, would you want CJ? Is there anything that he's doing right now that makes him coveted? Nope. Would you want to make that financial commitment?

Why not Korver? Well, he's a bit more expensive this year plus he's an unrestricted free agent. So if he leaves, they just gave up a draft pick for a two-month rental. With Brewer, they can keep him if they'd like.

Why not Matthews? I'm guessing the Jazz say hell no to that. You're not going to get a pick right now that's a better value than Matthews. He will also be a restricted FA this year and the Jazz can match offers for him as well.

From reading, it sounds like Brewer has been a target of the Grizz for a long time. They like him a lot.

So if I were to put a percentage on the financial/basketball reason for the trade, I'd go with 75/25. I don't know if that percentage means anything, but the financial reasons far outweighed the basketball reasons. I really believe that if the Jazz are under the cap, they don't trade Brewer. Sloan has been playing the right player in the right games when needed and has been choosing the right guy most of the time so I don't think having them all was that big of an issue.

Here's a couple of questions I would have asked KOC had I been able to get an audience

You said there were a lot of sellers at the deadline and some buyers. Which group did the Jazz fall into?
Who initiated the initial talks in January? (I said that it was Memphis above, but I don't think we've heard anything for sure)
What level of involvement did Greg Miller have in the trade?

So, how does this trade impact the Jazz for the rest of this season and beyond? Well, if you trust Hollinger's analysis on the trade machine, this trade reduces the Jazz win total by three games or about 1.3 games prorated for the rest of the season.

So what will we be losing with Ronnie B gone?

If you go based off of defensive win shares (2.2 so far) and defensive rating (105), he's having the best defensive year of his career. That's his biggest asset to the team, right? He's third on the team in defensive win shares and below the team average in defensive rating. However, he does have a better defensive rating than Korver, CJ, and Matthews.

You can also say that he's become a better passer this year. His assist numbers are at a career-high at 2.8 per game (3.3 per 36) and his turnovers are at a career low. It seemed like he was just getting into that new role of becoming a play-maker.

His other assets are of the intangible/unmeasurable kind. He's freakishly athletic, a great finisher, great competitor, and from what we know, a great guy and a good guy to have in the clubhouse.

So what won't be missing?

Let's face it, Ronnie B was not an offensive threat, at least not outside the paint. Take a look at his Hot spot chart from NBA.com,

And compare that to Matthews':

And Korver,

Offensively, Brewer is having his worst output of his career. Almost every percentage and number is down this season, even per 36,

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2006-07	21	UTA	NBA	56	14	675	5.4	10.3	.528	0.0	0.5	.000	3.0	4.4	.675	2.0	2.0	4.0	1.3	2.0	0.3	1.3	2.3	13.9
2007-08	22	UTA	NBA	76	76	2088	6.1	10.9	.558	0.2	0.9	.220	3.4	4.4	.759	1.7	2.1	3.8	2.3	2.2	0.3	1.2	1.9	15.8
2008-09	23	UTA	NBA	81	80	2605	5.8	11.4	.508	0.3	1.2	.259	3.4	4.9	.702	1.4	2.8	4.1	2.5	1.9	0.4	1.5	1.8	15.4
2009-10	24	UTA	NBA	53	53	1662	4.5	9.0	.495	0.2	0.7	.258	1.8	2.8	.633	1.0	2.9	3.9	3.3	1.8	0.3	1.1	1.7	10.9
Career			NBA	266	223	7030	5.5	10.6	.523	0.2	0.9	.234	3.0	4.2	.706	1.4	2.5	4.0	2.5	2.0	0.4	1.3	1.9	14.3

February hasn't been kind to him at all. His minutes are going down and isn't doing much to earn more PT.

For as much as we talk about needing some help to compete with the Lakers' length and building towards hanging with them, Ronnie doesn't do much to help in that regard. Kobe basically sets up camp in the lane and doubles whoever has the ball. It has the affect of a 6 on 5 matchup and that's without including the refs.

He was entering that phase of needing a change of scenery to break out of his funk. I don't know if he would have turned things around this season or not. We won't know now if he could have done it with the Jazz. I hope he does with Memphis because he deserves it. There's no questioning his work ethic and commitment to the game. Maybe the Grizz have a special shooting coach that specializes in unorthodox jumpers. Maybe he can slip on a basketball, fall on his wrist, and break it back into place.

The Jazz didn't seem bent on keeping Brewer for next season regardless of what happened at the deadline. The team and his agent weren't close over the summer when they were talking about an extension. The Jazz were content to, again, let the market set the price for their restricted FA. Ronnie would probably get an offer of more than what the Jazz were willing to pay and may have been leaving regardless. If that's the case, then a mid to late draft pick is certainly a reasonable get for him. I think that's why the Jazz were so quick to do this deal because they knew they weren't likely to re-sign him and they were getting what they could out of him. The only other way Brewer was going to get traded was part of a larger package and that wasn't happening.

That said, you have to look at whether that pick was fair compensation for Brewer. Can the Jazz get a starter with that pick? Not likely. I guess if the alternative is no pick at all if he left after this season, then that's a good deal.

But when you add the time and money spent on developing Brewer into the player he is today, it doesn't hardly seem worth it. Another question I'd like to ask O'Connor is when did you realize that Brewer was no longer a part of the team's future plans? Was it after meeting with his agent? Was it the play of Matthews? The return of Korver? When did they decide that it was worth letting him go and trashing the last four years developing him? If he had been a better player in their eyes, then they would have made a more concerted effort to keep him.

We won't know for a while if this was a mistake on the Jazz' part. Will he go on to be a Mo Williams-type post-Jazz success or will he follow the path of Shandon Anderson? Compare Anderson's and Ronnie's stats through their first four seasons. Pretty close? There's no question that Brewer has benefited from the Jazz offensive system. Will he have the same luxury elsewhere? Somewhere he can cut and slash and move without the ball?

So what's my final opinion of the trade? In some ways it makes sense but in others it stinks. I can see where we need to get players like Matthews some more minutes, but when is having depth a bad thing? We've been pretty fortunate with injuries in the regular season. What if something happens again to one of the three left? That leaves us pretty thin. The same thing happened right after we had to get rid of Maynor.

I also don't like the brass' deny everything stratagem. They denied having no Jazz games on KJZZ. They downplayed the Boozer talk over the summer and today. And they won't admit that this move was mostly a financial transaction. If they do concede that it was financially-motivated, is that admitting a lack of planning or poor contracts on their part? Jazz fans aren't dumb when it comes to these things. They can tell if something is being held back. Is it that bad to say, "Paying the luxury tax just isn't going to be a feasible as we thought and so we had to dump some salary to help alleviate that hit"?

Both O'Connor and Greg Miller have stated that the Jazz were willing to pay the luxury tax this year as long as they felt the Jazz were contending. I would say the third seed in the west and winners of 15 of their last 17 games fits that definition. It doesn't make any sense for the trade other than financial reasons.

So while the trade may work out in the long-run, it stinks because the Jazz aren't more forthcoming about it.

I hope Brewer has a long and prosperous career.

Other notes,

Did you notice that the reasons for trading Brewer could be applied to Boozer? (Update, check out Clark's post)
KOC doesn't like internet rumors because there's no accountability. There's less speculation if you're more open about things.
On the Boozer rumors today, normally where there's smoke, there's fire. There was no doubt a lot more pressure on Miami to get things done, but I wonder what counter offers, if any, KOC made.
Is it possible that we have just CJ at the end of the season? KK can leave and Matthews could get a pretty significant offer. What's it going to cost to keep those two?
Hollinger gives the trade a C+ for the Jazz.

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http://1280thezone.com/images/uploads/audio/2-18-10-Ronnie-Brewer.mp3

post-trade interview with ronnie b. he had nothing but good things to say about his teammates, coaches, the organization, the city, and the fans. class act.

by moni on Feb 19, 2010 12:36 AM MST reply actions

he says his first game with grizzlies he's going to wear a headband, rubber bands and wrist bands

in tribute to jerry.

by moni on Feb 19, 2010 12:40 AM MST up reply actions

Good analysis, BBJ.

I guess I am the only one on here that thought this trade was okay. I guess I saw it coming. I absolutely agree that Ronnie B. was going to get an offer probably about 2.5 to 3 times what he’s making now, per year, and the the Jazz wouldn’t (possibly couldn’t) match. Its one of those trades that just works out for both parties. I think the Grizz finally relented because they knew that it would have cost them more, salary wise, to lure him there at the end of the year.

I understand the frustration with the Jazz FO not being forthright with certain info, but it has always been my belief that it is a necessary evil. I just think that the franchise has so much going against it that they have to be very subversive get moves made that will benefit the team and they have to constantly remain a step ahead of all the other clubs to stay in competition. They just don’t have the benefit of a huge market to attract players or an owner with never ending dollar bills to bail them out if they make a huge mistake.

Regarding Booze/ Heat: I really don’t think this ever had the legs that Stein/ Ford made it out to have. I am really glad that the Jazz didn’t make any deal with the Heat because there is not a single player on that club (short of Flash) that I want my team to have any part of. Haslem is nice and could be better with a better system/ coach, but there was nothing else they could put with him to make it worthwhile.

by prodigal punk on Feb 19, 2010 7:30 AM MST reply actions

Thanks

I don’t have a problem with the trade so much as I do with them saying it was a basketball decision. It was a lot more financial than basketball though.

I don’t expect them to tell us everything but when it’s something obvious and they try to say otherwise that’s when it concerns me.

Like I stated, it will probably end up being fine. A lot of my early reaction was just emotional as was a lot of people’s. I still don’t think they are going to get the same value in return with that draft pick and I’m sure they know that it’s likely as well. According to Siler this morning, the Jazz have initiated talks with teams as well for Brewer, so it’s been in the works for a bit.

So the two benefits they get it are a lower tax payment and a pick which it appears to be the best offer they received.

SLCDunk.com, The Utah Jazz on SBNation

by Basketball John on Feb 19, 2010 8:40 AM MST up reply actions

spot on analysis

I like what you said about the administration. They really need to come clean with us and like you said, what really irritates us is their obvious lies and their lack of an explanation for not moving Boozer when the same reasons for moving Brewer apply (even more so) in Boozer’s case..

I can understand them not wanting to be transparent with other teams to a degree but like you said even with things like no KJZZ broadcasts they just haven’t had the guts to be upfront with the fan base. How are we supposed to trust them with anything?

by MelMan2002 on Feb 19, 2010 8:50 AM MST up reply actions

I think the biggest asset the Jazz have are the fans. In a small market if you alienate your fans you cannot pay the bills. Its not like LA where theres 15000 people that will take the empty seat in the arena or buy more lakers garb. I think this is a gamble on the Jazz managements part but we will get more players and move on. If we make it to the WC finals and our wing players are all in foul trouble in game 7 we will regret this.

by neds on Feb 19, 2010 9:43 AM MST up reply actions

The biggest question is

who gets the start tonight?

I think it’s obvious who should get the start. Wesley Matthews filled in beautifully when Korver and Miles were both out with injury. I would love to see him getting starter minutes again. I hope that’s the case.

But I have a sick feeling that we’re going to see CJ in the starting lineup. And if that’s the case, I might be forced to shoot myself. Even Korver would be a better start than CJ.

by vizzle07 on Feb 19, 2010 8:54 AM MST reply actions