The Key to Kobe Bryant

by Clintonite33 on Mar 30, 2010 5:16 PM MDT

The other day I was hit up by Twitterer pal o' mine, @Windfamiliar, concerning a potential Utah Jazz / Los Angeles Lakers playoff matchup, specifically, what would be the most problematic matchups. Naturally, I gave the good ol' reliable response about Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom's length, which is a valid concern, but that wasn't satisfactory. He also wanted to know how to stop the prolific Kobe Bryant.

Having already been tracking just such a thing (who isn't on the lookout for a way to douse the Lake Show?), I immediately knew where to go with it.

You don't.

You let him shoot 'em out of it. The Lakers are a more-than-mortal 3-5 when The Black Mamba strikes for at least 30 FGA's a game. But it doesn't end there.

This morning, I evidently inspired a post on Ball the Blog, by another fellow Twitter friend you should be following, @BluesForARedSun, which ultimately became a catalyst for me to return the favor. The New Orleans Hornets' Darren Collison has been lights out, with or without Chris Paul, and the pair shared the floor last night in a win against the Lakers for what amounted to a quarter's-worth of play, out-scoring LA 39-16 in those minutes (yeah, if you follow me on Twitter you know I botched that math. Repeatedly. I'm a bit under the weather today).

These two NBA fanatics got me to thinking, searching out a new angle on why the Lakers lose when they do. The above link took you to Ball the Blog's post about playing what I call a "Pair of Aces" offense, that is, two points guards on the floor together, what I believe was the difference in the Hornets beating the Lakers just last night. Jerry Sloan and the Utah Jazz also rolled two PG's last night for a spell, reminding me of the reason Ronnie Price is the default back-up PG to Deron Williams; the final game of last spring, when afterward Sloan stated he'd been mistaken in not playing Price more throughout the year, but that's neither here nor there, although it is the reason Ronnie was asked back for another round.

As Paul and Collison showed, it clearly makes a big difference when playing the starting Lakers' aged back court (63,901 combined minutes, or about the price of a used Aston Martin... you know, to jump over?), to have a competent and proficient scorer opposite of Bryant. The super-slippery-quick Collison put up his 17 points in only 21 minutes, mostly with Paul feeding him.

Sure, we all know that the aging Derek Fisher is a chink in the Lakers' armor, however, Bryant is often lauded as the game's most complete player. Eight out of ten analysts will tell you this. But, his defense has sorely lacked in LA's losses this year, something that will surely make Kobe's supporters gasp and clamor for my head on a silver platter, since Bryant is widely celebrated for his defensive prowess.

Shouldn't he be shutting down his counterpart? He happens to be giving up 15 points per game at his position.

For this analysis I rolled through each and every Lakers loss in which Bryant played, often checking the play-by-play to see which opposing player was on the floor at the same time as Bryant, meaning he was likely guarding the particular player at the time. I realize that there are multiple positional switches on defense on any given play, but generally speaking, if he left his man that man is likely to have an open look at the bucket, so it seems like a fair way to determine what Bryant is giving up to his guy on the floor at the time, does it not?

Giving up 15 points a game to his man might seem like a little, until you check out the mean (average) at the position. The man in the middle here is averaging 10.5 points per game, meaning Bryant is giving up 4.5 more than he should/could be. And it gets worse (or better, depending on your perspective of course).

Kobe Bryant lets 47% of his opponents' shots find the bottom of the bucket, a full two percentage points worse than the mean of 45%.

And the same spread is true from the 3-point line, as he's allowing 39% of 3-point field goals through to the league average of 37% at the shooting guard spot. How bad is that? The Phoenix Suns lead the league in 3-point shooting percentage at 40%. Let's just say that's not good.

By the way, 39 is a notable number for Kobe Bryant in another way. He will surpass 39k minutes for his career mid-way through next season (and this figure doesn't factor in Olympic minutes). Typically, 35,000 is the plateau where a basketball player begins declining noticeably. Maybe you've noticed how Tim Duncan's offensive game seems to have abandoned him in the last few weeks? That's because he reached that nearly universal peak, and consequently his game has plummeted in almost perfect proportion to it. Bryant can't be far behind, indeed, his reluctance to go to the rim nowadays has been well documented, a sure sign of failing legs.

There is one other thing that sticks out like a sore pinky... er, thumb, about Bryant's game in those losses; his assists fall to 4.2 a game from his season average of 5.1.

And incomprehensibly, in five key losses to the Cleveland Cavaliers (two times), the LA Clippers, the Portland Trail Blazers, and Orlando Magic Bryant dished nearly 7 dimes a game. In all five of those losses Bryant took 30 or more FG's too, so it's not like he didn't do everything within his power to get the victory.

So, what does this all mean? It's means you want Bryant taking control of the game. His ego demands it of him anyway. He needs to be the man in charge, the director of traffic.

via img.youtube.com

It could leave you clicking your heels, if you're the opposition.

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.

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Suplimental

There is now a followup which includes some great stuff on John Stockton and his ageless abilities. Check it out here:

http://balltheblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/darlin-dont-you-go-and-cut-your-hair.html

by Clintonite33 on Mar 30, 2010 8:41 PM MDT reply actions

implying?

So are you implying Sloan should play Price in place of Matthews for more of the potential playoff match up? Are you saying we should make sure we don’t let Kobe get to the rim and give him space to shoot jumpers?

I like it. Have a feeling that may be a little too radical for Sloan though

by zdid on Mar 31, 2010 7:51 AM MDT reply actions

The Implication

The Jazz have actually had moderate success against Kobe and Co. The implication is that Kobe can be drawn into a shootout, neutralizing his teammates to a degree. If we look at the 5 key losses mentioned in the post, wherein Bryant took 30 or more field goals, there was a player on the opposition that sparked his competitive streak, forcing it to take over. The man loves a challenge.

If Bryant is taking touches, the other potent Lakers are not. Since Gasol has joined them, Utah has won every game that he’s scored 16 or less points in (one he did not play, and Odom had 21 in his stead, a loss for the Jazz).

Some success has been had by giving Bryant a different look, defensively, during the game. In a win last year, Sloan threw no less than four different players at Bryant. Also in that game, Deron Williams popped 17 shots for 31 points. Bryant took 33, making only 14, including 1-7 from three.

by Clintonite33 on Mar 31, 2010 9:05 AM MDT up reply actions

Here's the rub

There is some of that challenge mentality present, but more often the shot attempts go up because the Lakers are playing poorly, maybe even including Kobe, but for whatever reason they are losing and time is running out.

Shooting attempts for Kobe are like passing attempts for a QB, they go up when the team is losing already.

So in a way, asking a team to make him shoot more is somewhat analogous to asking a football team to make a QB pass more. Well to do that you need to get a big enough lead that time is a factor, and that brings to back to asking how do you get a big enough lead?

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gil Meriken on Mar 31, 2010 10:16 AM MDT reply actions

Don't forget

You can also get the QB to throw more by stacking the box and taking away the run (read: stepping back, packing it in the middle, and letting the jump-shooter shoot).

This is more what Clintonite is saying. When you stack the box, you’re taking away the run and daring the QB to throw. When you give Kobe space to shoot, you’re daring him to. And it’s not something he can resist.

by vizzle07 on Mar 31, 2010 10:20 AM MDT up reply actions

Now that's an interesting strategy

Given his finger injury, it may work out, but I don’t know that you want to let him shoot jumpers, he will eventually get on a hot streak. It’s been tried, I think Orlando did the same in a few games in the Finals and he kept taking what was there, namely jumpers.

If there was a simple psychological strategy to turn Kobe’s ego against himself, wouldn’t it have been tried already and be used consistently?

People in Phoenix claim that’s what they would do back in the day, let Kobe “shoot himself out”, but that’s not actually a fair comparison, because Phoenix used to have the superior team. Make things equal, and if you let Kobe go off, the rest of his teammates are now good enough to chip in to make it a win (but not lately!).

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gil Meriken on Mar 31, 2010 10:29 AM MDT up reply actions

Yeah, I don’t know if I’d want to let Kobe just shoot jumpers either. It would probably make me crazy watching our guys give him space. And it’s a big gamble too, because if he’s on, he’ll destroy you.

Honestly, I thought our most effective defender on Kobe was Matt Harpring. Not because he was quick and athletic (let’s not kid ourselves…) but because he knew how to irritate Kobe unlike any other. And for some reason, when Matt got under Kobe’s skin, he started making mistakes.

I miss Matt.

by vizzle07 on Mar 31, 2010 10:36 AM MDT up reply actions

Rather than just leaving him open to shoot jumpers, the important thing would be not to double team him. Put a solid on ball defender on him (Matthews?) and let him go at it. It is much better than an open shot. If we double him, his teammates get the open pass, which is a recipe for disaster.

Follow me on twitter @JD23UT

by JD23UT on Mar 31, 2010 10:46 AM MDT up reply actions

Right

Teams that can effectively defend a superstar without have to throw a hard double will do ~~well~~ better against Kobe. But you need a top notch defense to do that (2008 Celtics, for example, or even 2004 Detroit Pistons).

Harpring could have/should have been a football player, and that’s not a knock, he was that physical and tough.

Just play Ronnie Price 48 min, that’s your best chance (I’m just running off memories of his 4th quarter balls to the walls performance last season’s playoffs).

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gil Meriken on Mar 31, 2010 10:54 AM MDT up reply actions

So....

What I’m gathering from this is that we can all agree that we despise Kobe. Good, glad that’s settled.

by jbuxxy on Mar 31, 2010 10:22 AM MDT reply actions

jumpers

at least if we let him shoot jumpers, he has a smaller chance of hitting them than shooting from the free throw line. Which is where the refs will put him if any Jazz breath near him.

by zdid on Mar 31, 2010 1:19 PM MDT reply actions

I think

giving Kobe space is a smart strategy. Kobe will kill you at the foul line and if you press him, he will drive and get to the line way too many times (superstar status).

For the Love of the Game

by ForTheLove on Mar 31, 2010 1:34 PM MDT reply actions

Blazer fan here. Good post.

A few thoughts about Kobe, as I have seen him play close to a dozen times in person.

1. Kobe is not an all world defender, as his reputation would suggest. The great defenders of the league give 110% every possession, whereas Kobe takes stretches, or quarters, or even halves off of defense. He gets in the passing lanes and gambles on steals which bolster his stats, but also gives lots of opportunities for easy buckets when he fails. That being said, Kobe is a scary good defender at the end of games, and when he turns on the boosters. He is so aggressive, physical, up in his mans face, and moves his feet so fast it’s almost unfair. Many times the man he is guarding doesn’t even see the ball. Likely he is taking possessions off on defense to save energy for his offense.

2. I agree wholeheartedly with the OP, that a good strategy to defend Kobe is to let him shoot. When the Blazers play the Lakers Nate Mcmillan loves to use the old strategy of putting a shorter defender on him to entice him to shoot over the top all night long. You can live with Kobe shooting 45% on mainly jumpshots and scoring 30 on you, and Kobe LOOOOVVVES the long 2. You can not live with him breaking down your defense and getting to the rim or setting up open shooters.

Hope we don’t see you guys in the playoffs! I’ll be a Jazz fan for a series if you play LA.

"What people need to know is that those pictures were taken a year and a half ago, and I've grown since then." - Greg Oden

by dario argento on Apr 1, 2010 7:30 PM MDT reply actions

Nice post

Interesting analysis of his defense as well. I’ve always thought he was an overrated defender, getting praise based on reputation and his potential to be a phenomenal defender rather than on his actual performance

With regard to his offense, there is, of course, no way to shut Kobe down, just like there’s no way to shut Durant or LeBron down. All you can hope to do is minimize the damage. And I agree that the best way to minimize the damage done by Kobe in particular and the Lakers in general is indeed to let Kobe try to take the game over, and specifically to let him shoot jumpers.

A look at the last two games we’ve played against the Lakers is very informative. Back in December, in our lone win against the Lakers this season, Kobe took 24 shots (making only 7). 22 of those shots were jumpers. TWENTY TWO. (He had one running bank shot attempt and one layup.) He had an ORtg of 86 in that game, compared to his season average of 110. He shot 9 threes compared to 1 free throw. Forcing him to shoot jumpers was the single biggest reason the Jazz won that game. Granted, I doubt the Jazz can force him into a 9-to-1 three-to-free throw ratio again, but with Kobe, you have to pick your poison, and I’d pick the jumper every day with him. Yeah he’ll get hot and hit it with regularity some of the time. But he hits free throws and layups with much more regularity than he hits the jumper.

And then the most recent game, Kobe didn’t play, and we got killed anyway (and at the end of a 9-game winning streak). It was because of Gasol and Odom. We absolutely can’t guard either one. The more time they spend with the ball in their hands, the more shots they take, the worse off we are. So if we can get Kobe to take, say 30% of the Lakers’ field goal attempts versus the approximately 22% of their field goal attempts he averages, we’re better off. Take a look at the game logs from the last three seasons worth of Jazz-Lakers games (the Lakers have won 6 of 9), sorted by Kobe’s field goals attempted: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&player=bryanko01&match=game&year_min=2008&year_max=2010&age_min=0&age_max=99&team_id=&opp_id=UTA&is_playoffs=N&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&is_starter=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pts

Two of the three Jazz wins are right there at the top, when Kobe attempted 33 and 24 shots, respectively. Force him to shoot lots of jumpers, keep him off the line, limit his assists, and keep the ball out of Gasol and Odom’s hands, and you have slightly more than a snowball’s chance in hell of beating them (easier said than done, sure, but it’s a worthy goal).

by shandonfan on Apr 2, 2010 9:11 AM MDT reply actions

Look at Atlanta

They aren’t particularly big on the block, not more lengthy than LA. What they did was goad Bryant into an early shootout; he was on pace for 30 FGA’s by the half.

The result was that it rendered the Lakers bigs ineffective, as the game became Kobe on 5. If Memo and boozer come out physical, forcing Bryant to have to try and take over from the perimeter, the Jazz greatly increase their chances.

Memo has been a beast in the paint lately, bringing that sweet new baby hook and post moves to the game. Gotta get physical early, playing inside-out with a few key makes that Bryant feels he has to answer, and the Lakers will be forced to play outside-in.

Just be sure to get back in transistion, especially when Farmar is in the game, and don’t lose track of Odom (Paul, we’re lookin’ at you).

Phil packed the paint last meeting, because the Jazz couldn’t hit the Great Salt Lake if they’d been standing in it. Matthews, Miles, and Korver have to be knocking down the jumpers off of the screens, and fortunately the ocean is a bigger target than Salt Lake is.

Physical, confident play is the word of the day.

by Clintonite33 on Apr 2, 2010 9:40 AM MDT up reply actions