The Pyrrhic Western Conference Playoffs
by AllThatJazzBasketball on Apr 1, 2010 1:06 PM MDT
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No doubt we've all looked at the standings and marveled at how close teams are. One way to look at this is to assume that a majority of these teams are pretty much even strength. Of course, that's what David Stern and his TV deal devils want. An alternative view is that some teams have over-achieved while better teams have dropped a few games they should not have lost. Depending on which fanbase you hail from (or if you are an optimist), you could be in either of those two camps. One thing is certain though, while the East is led by two juggernauts and followed by an aging titan the winner of the Wild Wild West will have had to go through hell and back for 12 wins -- for the right to play in the finals.
The Jazz have a handful of games left, and even the easier games can't be taken for granted. New Orleans is playing well right now and would want to show their fans a preview for next season by trying to play spoiler. Golden State has enough guns to take out a really good team if the ball bounces their way -- we've seen it before when they took out the Mavs in 2006-2007. Houston, Oklahoma City and Phoenix will all be tough games. And, of course, the Jazz will fight the smog and traffic and superstar calls in LA on Friday.
Even making it to the playoffs in one piece will be hard enough for each of the teams in it, even though they have mostly all already clinched spots. (Gone are the days of resting starters in April) A slip-up here will bring you from 2nd place to 5th or 6th in no time. Just ask the Nuggets.
The idea is to try to win as many games as possible, but I really think that the Jazz need to maneuver into the best playoff brackets possible, instead of trying to be the best. I'm actively advocating dropping one of these 6 games if it means playing the Blazers in the playoffs instead of playing the Spurs or Oklahoma City. It's hard to predict what to do in these types of situations. Of course, the 'easiest' route on paper is to win the division and the 2nd seed.
Avoiding the Lakers is very important, we all know this; however, getting bounced in the first round (which can happen to any of the 4 home teams in the West playoffs -- even the Lakers if they continue to not know how to play defense) is a possibility we should be wary of. (After all, the Stockton and Malone Jazz have something like 6 or 7 1st round exits) What's more important than avoiding the Lakers is actually winning playoff games.
Utah has shown that they can beat some of these teams, and shown that they can't beat others. The Thunder are just as dangerous as the Lakers are because we haven't beat the Thunder. Forget about the fact that Durant is getting some slight MVP votes, and getting to the line 15 times in Boston against a team of guys who won the ring 2 years ago. Right now we can't handle the Thunder (yes, one of the games was close), they could out us just as easily as the Lakers right now. Maybe things will be different in the playoffs -- but I don't think they will be. Remember when the Jazz played the Spurs back in the playoffs and the Jazz beat the Spurs 5-0 that season? Some NBC guys were talking about how the playoffs were a different animal - they were not. The Jazz trounced them in the playoffs. It was like taking candy from a baby with the help of Navy Seals and a weaponized form of anthrax. (Average margin of victory was +8.25 points ... AGAINST A PLAYOFF TEAM IN THE PLAYOFFS, and the Jazz were the lower seed)
I don't like the hubris that comes from everyone saying good things about us; it will only inflate our sense of self and make any losses that much worse for us, as fans. Our team will have to come to play against any team faced in the West playoffs, starting with Round 1. Honestly, looking at the teams right now I think the Jazz can beat (with a high success rate) either the Portland Trailblazers or the San Antonio Spurs in the first round. But both of those teams are playing really good basketball right now, and a) there's no way either of those teams would go down easy, and b) there's no way to predict that those teams will be the 8th or 7th seed when the playoffs start.
NBA fans should enjoy these playoffs as each of these 8 teams will be fighting (on mostly) equal footing. Whomever is lucky enough to win the West will have the added pressure of representing such a strong conference -- but also have the disadvantage of having to get to the finals through, essentially, Mordor. (No Toronto Raptors or Miami Heat in the West Playoffs) Whomever wins the west will have won three Pyrrhic victories to get there.
In reality being a Western Conference Playoff team is the victory, itself. Everything else is just madness. (not of the March variety)
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(Pat on the back)
I wrote something that didn’t have any stats in it! All the years of sports fan therapy seem to be paying off!
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Apr 1, 2010 1:12 PM MDT reply actions
DRAT!
I mentioned average margin of victor!
Back to the drawing board
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Apr 1, 2010 1:13 PM MDT up reply actions
This playoff race is going to be
one of the best ever. We get to witness it. Not only that it is coming on the heels of an EPIC March Madness month.
If you really are a basketball fan, not just a superstar lover, but one of us that love the game down to the very core of that dang orange ball. Then the combination of March, April, and May this year should leave you beaming. This has been probably one of, if not the best basketball year I’ve ever had the pleasure of witnessing. Cinderellas galore all through college ball, a NBA race that has seedings seperated by only half games? Re freakin diculious.
I LOVE Basketball. Doesn’t get much better than this.
For the Love of the Game
Have to disagree
about Oklahoma City. Not because of your illustration of the Spurs, but because of who the Jazz are as a team. A few years ago, NOBODY predicted the Jazz would beat Yao/McGrady and Company. In fact, many pundits expected em out in 5. But the Jazz have played well in the playoffs. They’re seasoned and talented – they just keep running into the lakers. Frankly, if the Jazz take the 2 seed, I expect them to lose no more than 3 or 4 games en route to the WCF.
The Thunder may be better than we thought, but against the playoff Jazz and a coach who will have his team prepared, I HIGHLY doubt the Thunder will win more than 1 game. I’d put money on it. I’ve got my fingers crossed for a Jazz/Thunder first rounder. I think it’s who the Jazz would pick too.
I wished I shared your bravado / confidence.
I think that the Thunder have a number of things working against them: their youth; their lack of real, tested bigs; and the inexperience of their coach. I don’t know who their assistants are (I could look it up), but the major problems the Thunder face are internal. Westbrook (as we’ve seen in the last 3 games vs. the Jazz) is no pushover for Deron. He’s a physical guard like Deron. Our greatest strength is less than it would be, if we were facing Portland, New Orleans, the Lakers or whomever.
Of course, the Thunder have a lot going for it. First of all, they are playing with the house’s money right now. No one thought that they’d be a playoff team this year. They will not be facing the same time of performance pressure that other, older, clubs will face.A lot of their guys can hit threes. Jeff Green somehow plays power for them, and he’s as legit from outside as some of our guards have been in previous seasons. This is an implicit defensive match-up that draws Utah out of its’ comfort zone when playing defense. It also mitigates one of the only advantages of having real bigs on the roster – to clog up the paint on defense. This will allow for there to be significant gaps for guys like Westrbrook and Durant to drive through / cut through.
This isn’t the same team as it was as the last year of the Supersonics franchise (where AK had some mystical psychological edge against a rookie Durant, and they were a mess inside). This is a different team now as the Thunder. They’ve beaten the Jazz every time the two teams have played this season. It’s that whole ‘Predator’ “if it bleeds, we can kill it” theory. They know Utah can bleed, they’ve done it three times already.
I think Jerry and his assistants are superb game-to-game coaches, who can make the right adjustments to the gameplan as needed.
I think Utah could be ready for the playoffs, no matter who they play against. I just think there are easier teams for the Jazz to match up with than OKC right now . . .
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Apr 1, 2010 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions
I still disagree
If not solely because the Thunder seem TOO much like the Hornets from a couple years ago who won 56 games but did nothing (rising star who garnered serious MVP contention, a lot of unexpected wins, hype in the playoffs, etc.), then also because a 7 game series is so much different than playing during the year. Sloan would have time to concentrate solely on the thunder. Not only that, but home court advantage is something we haven’t seen in a while. The Thunder would have too hard of a time beating the Jazz at home in the playoffs. Then they’de have to go home 0-2. That’s deflating. Look at what happened to the Warriors in 2007!
The Thunder have a lot of potential, but if they match up, Jazz take it 4-1.
Of course, we’ll see what happens when the thunder and jazz play and see if the 3-0 is to be taken seriously
Im a suns fan, here so i dont see why you guys would want to be playing portland. You guys are undersized ine the front court
and going up against Lamarcus aldrige and marcus camby is a pretty tough match up. The playoffs are extrmely different from the regular season. Just ask any suns fan including myself how it was having to face a san antonio team that we owned during the regular season.
LaMarcus + Camby
Have not been problems for the Jazz before. The playoffs are different, but the individual match-ups do not change. The rosters do not change. And the exploits do not change. Utah can go as big as anyone if they need to (they do have a 7’1, 300 lb guy on the bench). Camby is useless in a game that features a lot of pick and rolls. He never defends those. Utah runs a lot of pick and rolls in the playoffs in order to break out of strong defensive schemes . . . Deron and Booz, Deron and Millsap, Deron and Okur, heck, even AK and Booz. Who ever Camby is defending will be brought out to at least 15 feet for some sort of pick and roll. If Camby does not come out, then that’s an open jumper for some guys who do have legit midrange shots (Deron, Booz, Memo).
LaMarcus has had some really pathetic games vs. the Jazz in his career. His height is great, but he plays much smaller because he plays soft against Utah’s brutes.
In a world where the Lakers have Gasol, Bynum and Odom — every team is pretty much undersized.
I feel bad for you guys about the Spurs, but I think we all know the Spurs win because they cheat.
Follow me on Twitter: AllThatAmar
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Really, I'm totally not lonely or anything . . .
by AllThatJazzBasketball on Apr 1, 2010 2:31 PM MDT up reply actions
good points on both, but what if oden comes back he can play his defense on the pick and roll and cause you guys some trouble. The only thing that i dont understand
is how you guys still havent beaten the thunder, they play kristic at the five, cant you guys just give to okur and blast them in the paint? i mean kristic is so soft, plus okc has 0 experience in the postseason that is the one team i want the suns to face in the playoffs
by Bkj on Apr 1, 2010 5:39 PM MDT up reply actions
If
. . . if greg oden comes back and has the cat like agility (that he did not have in highschool) to be a mobile bigman who can defend all over the court than God help us all.
Follow me on Twitter: AllThatAmar
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Really, I'm totally not lonely or anything . . .
by AllThatJazzBasketball on Apr 1, 2010 5:54 PM MDT up reply actions
Love the use of the word "pyrrhic"
Big fan of the word when used appropriately… Nice job.
The West definitely reminds me of the mid-90’s with the Eastern conference, when you had several legitimately solid teams battling it out in the first few rounds of the playoffs. Pacers, Knicks, Heat, Bulls – those teams would clash every year and mortally wound themselves just making it to the next round. Any team that can survive their way to the Western Conference Finals this season will have to be deep. I think this is where the team chemistry that the front office has built by keeping the team core intact the last few seasons could pay off. Just look at how we’ve been able to pull out victories (even on the road) despite missing AK47 the last few games.
Denver
I picked Denver. They are playing poor basketball right now. If Martin and (God bless) Karl make it back for the playoffs they will be tough past the first round. If we have to play them round 1 would be the best place. I think the Thunder will be tough. I think we would win but not a blow out. Durant is that good and they are that fast. We will have a better chance to prepare than we get in the season, though. I think the entire top four advance. I want to see LA play OKC or Portland in the first round. underated teams that give the lake show fits.
UTAH IN THE TWO SEED!!!!!
just wanted to be the first to say it cause it may not last for very long after tomorrow night……..
Dallas did lose. Lakers lost 3 of 5 on the road.
Big night in la la land tomorrow. We win i say we win remaining five games. i won’t contemplate the other option.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Apr 1, 2010 10:18 PM MDT up reply actions
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