The Downbeat - 19 April 2010 - #210 - The AM (After Memo) Edition

by Basketball John on Apr 19, 2010 11:06 AM MDT in Features - Downbeats

1_medium Memo's injury will have some rippling effects on the team for the off-season and for the next. Fesenko's value probably just went up a bit in the eyes of the Jazz. Since he's restricted, they can wait though and see what other teams will offer him. He'll probably get a couple of looks but unless he turns into Shaq for the rest of the playoffs, he's not going to get a huge offer. I'm guessing that he'll be matched if the Jazz don't work out something with him beforehand.

Of course that #9 pick couldn't have come at a better time. If the Jazz don't luck out and get into one of the top two spots they almost have to take a big man now. That might have been the plan already but is probably even more so now. Can O'Connor work some more magic and move up? Is Cole Aldrich on a LOST-type collision course with the Jazz?

Of course what will this mean for re-signing Boozer? There's a little more cap room now and without Memo out at least the first 2-3 months of next season, we'll need another offensive weapon even if Booze is gone and Millsap is the starting PF. If Booze doesn't come back, do you start AK and Millsap at the 4,5? Does Fess get the start with Millsap? How does a starting lineup of Deron, Matthews, AK, Millsap, Fesenko look? If Boozer isn't back and Memo not back for a bit, we suddenly have a pretty thin bench. The only ones we have signed right now are the KOOF, Price and Miles. Korver should be back. We'll have the first-round pick. I'm going to say Gaines will be back. Jeffers will get a shot no doubt.

So bringing Boozer back gets looking more and more likely.

Could be some big changes coming though.

So I'm finding a bit of solace in tonight's game in that while Carmelo will still probably get his, he's got to come down some, right?

Before last season, Melo hadn't played all that well in the playoffs. It wasn't a coincidence that last year was the first time he had not pulled a McGrady. He's not going to disappear like he has in years past, but he's going to come down some, even if it's just a bit.

However, that usually means someone else, like Billups, will pick their game up a bit. I don't know if the Jazz can really stop them defensively especially being down two guys now. They're going to just limit their second chances and be near-perfect on offense to keep up.

I'm hoping to see more of this CJ tonight,

CJ Miles'dan Kenyon Martin'e Poster.flv (via YlmzBrky)

If there's a silver lining to Memo's injury, it's that we'll get to see how Fesenko and the KOOF play. We benefited from injury early in the season with the discovery of Matthews. The difference here is that Fesenko and the KOOF have been around a relatively long time so I think we know what we're going to get. I don't know if either of them are going to suddenly make even a semi-jump. We'll get a lot of Millsap and Boozer but if there's foul trouble, and why wouldn't there be, it's Millsap we're talking about, we're going to get a huge dose of the 7-footers tonight.

Did we by chance sign Ostertag a couple of months ago and it just slipped under the radar? No? Okay, just checking.

Monday poll

Poll

Who's our best shot at slowing Melo?

Matthews

54 votes

CJ

17 votes

Harpring's bad knees

49 votes

Jeffers

33 votes

Melo

59 votes

Other

3 votes

215 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Boozer

if we’re going to bring him back and not go way over the cap, don’t we need to lose one of Okur (unlikely), AK (questionable) or Sap?

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by UtesFan89 on Apr 19, 2010 11:25 AM MDT reply actions

I voted Jeffers...

But I think it’s going to take a combination of Jeffers and Matthews. We haven’t see a lot of Jeffers yet, but he seems to be a pretty good on-ball defender, and whenever he gets out there he gives it everything he’s got (a la Ronnie Price).

I say at least give him a shot at Melo. What have we got to lose?

That being said, is it really Melo that we need to worry about? I mean, he scored 42 on Saturday and it almost didn’t matter. If JR hadn’t come in and started raining threes in the 4th quarter, it would have come right down to the wire. He’s the one that got us down double digits. My keys to the game (aka, keys to having more than a snowball’s chance in hell) are as follows:

1 – Get the Nuggs in foul trouble early. We’re shorthanded, and I think the best way to handle that is by being the aggressors and trying to put some of Denver’s key players on the bench. We did a good job of that in game 1, and I think that’s what kept it close throughout.

2 – Defend the perimeter. Like I said, JR knocking down wide open threes is what did us in. We’ve got to do a better job on that.

3 – Solid minutes from the Twin Towers — aka Koof and Fes. I don’t expect either of them to all of a sudden morph into Dwight Howard, but they need to play smart and give it everything they’ve got.

4 – Ninja. ’Nuff said.

by vizzle07 on Apr 19, 2010 11:27 AM MDT reply actions

Obviously this is a small sample size

with Fesenko having played 407 minutes and Koufos 172. But, according to basketballvalue.com (http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2009-2010&team=UTA), the 1-year unadjusted plus/minus when Fesenko is on the court is positive 12.35, best on the team, ahead of Korver and DWill. The number for Koufos, however: NEGATIVE 16.92. That is worst on the team by magnitudes, the only one, in fact, that is negative. That’s right, every other player on the Jazz has a positive unadjusted plus/minus while they were on the court this season. Somehow Koufos pulls a NEGATIVE 16.92! How is that even possible?

Read into the unadjusted plus/minus what you want, but the discrepancy is startling when the two players are compared. A 29.27 difference in favor of Fesenko.

by Bouncy Phillips on Apr 19, 2010 11:38 AM MDT reply actions

There is a pretty easy explenation for Koufos...

Look at the minutes he has typically been getting? Up double digits with 2 or 3 minutes left in the game. The Jazz typically are not looking to score in that situation and even if they are it is an ill-fated jump shot with 3 seconds on the shot clock.

While Fes has not gotten a ton of meaningful minutes this year, he has had some. I’m sure if you look at the lineup on the floor in comparison between the two you will see that Fes plays a significant amount of his minutes with the starters while the Koof is the complete opposite.

Twitter: bjcseven

by BC7 on Apr 19, 2010 11:55 AM MDT up reply actions

That skews the numbers

but doesn’t explain the entire discrepancy.

On a more qualitative level, Koufos is simply the worst player on the court during the minutes he plays. That’s not true for Fesenko.

We should waive Koufos, sign Boozer and package him with Miles, and future 1st round draft pick for Mr. Bogut, and draft another scoring wing this season.

by Bouncy Phillips on Apr 19, 2010 12:24 PM MDT up reply actions

It absolutely explains the entire discrepancy

if you truly believe the KOOF is that terrible of a player then you are misguided. Young and inexperienced, yes – but vs. Fes he really isn’t bad.

You just can’t take stats and expect them to tell the story. That is what bothers me most about Locke – he thinks he can take a bunch of numbers and have them explain everything. Numbers can help to give you things to look at and consider but they should not be what drives the final decision. You have to watch a player to really see what he is worth..

by MelMan2002 on Apr 19, 2010 12:41 PM MDT up reply actions

I've been watching.

And I just haven’t seen what KOOF excels at. He looks like a prototype bust.

To complicate the stats, one third of KOOF’s minutes were played alongside Fesenko.and we STILL have that difference.

You’re right, stats don’t tell stories, but they do lead to more questions.

by Bouncy Phillips on Apr 19, 2010 1:09 PM MDT up reply actions

I disagree, but not strongly

He put up good numbers in the d-league. I know, it’s apples to oranges, but I think he needs confidence.

I think he has the same problem Mo Almond had. He gets so nervous for those tiny little slices of NBA minutes, that he overshoots the ball. Or fumbles a pass. I think with minutes, he just calms down and does fine (remember that stretch in his rookie year anyone?).

That brings up a bigger point, though. What happens when he’s getting the big minutes, but a “big game” comes around? Does he choke? Could be…

by chamont on Apr 19, 2010 2:27 PM MDT up reply actions

I had to cringe

everytime the ball came near Koof in the Suns game. He is truly awful. Some of this can be attributed to situation (end of game garbage time and playing with the other scrubs) but by and large he shows zero aptitude. Sloan should be blamed for failing to develop him at all, but more and more I get the feeling that the only reason Koof is getting minutes at all is to prevent Fess from getting minutes. That’s classic Sloan logic. Koof gives more effort in practice and therefor deserves to be ahead of Fess on the depth chart.

by tyrantking on Apr 19, 2010 1:15 PM MDT up reply actions

I've seen Koufos plenty...

not just with the Jazz, but also with the Flash the past couple of years. I can say without reservation that Fes is MILES ahead of Koufos.

Koufos will end up bouncing around the D-League (or Europe) for the rest of his career. He’s soft, he can’t rebound, he can’t shoot.

He’s also got the wrong mindset. You would think that someone who can’t get off the bench with the Jazz would jump at the opportunity to play with the Flash and work on developing the vast amounts of holes in his game. But he strutted around like he owned the place and repeated let anyone within an earshot of him know that he was better than the D-League. He put up okay numbers only because he shot nearly every time he touched the ball and was at least 3 or 4 inches taller than everyone else.

Play Fes if you must… but please, leave Koufos on the bench.

Whitewater In The Morning

by neff on Apr 19, 2010 1:43 PM MDT up reply actions

i'm confident that koof is the worst player in the entire league

by bigdog'sshades on Apr 19, 2010 6:30 PM MDT up reply actions

Thanks for backing me up guys.

by Bouncy Phillips on Apr 19, 2010 7:40 PM MDT up reply actions

How to slow Melo ...

There is a great read on ESPN today about Miles and Matthews … not sure if it was posted here or not, but some great quotes from Harpring, Miles and Matthews … click here.

Other than being overly aggressive and basically fouling Melo on every play (not a bad option as he can get frustrated), the Jazz should try to feed the ball to whoever Melo is guarding and drive it right at him. Melo isn’t the best at taking charges and doesn’t like to do so … I can’t even remember the last time I saw Melo take any type of charge.

What Melo does like to do is move to one side and reach in for the steal … if the Jazz play their cards right they can get Melo into foul trouble again my having his man take it to him on offense.

I now feel dirty for talking about how to stop my team’s best offensive weapon …

Denver Stiffs.com: Defending the sovereignty of Nuggets Nation.

by Nate Timmons on Apr 19, 2010 11:51 AM MDT reply actions

Missing words and spelling errors above …

“whomever Melo is guarding and THEY should drive right at him.”

“again BY having his man take it to him on offense.”

Denver Stiffs.com: Defending the sovereignty of Nuggets Nation.

by Nate Timmons on Apr 19, 2010 11:53 AM MDT up reply actions

I like the strategy...

…and you can always sleep well knowing you are helping the downtrodden.

I'll make it coach.

by MTN on Apr 19, 2010 12:12 PM MDT up reply actions

I have always wondered why we don’t do this. If Melo is giving us trouble take it at him. Run screens and force them to switch so he has to guard someone faster or a better shooter. then drive at him repeatedly. he will wear down. I always thought against the lakers whoever Kobe was guarding should be going at the basket. This is what other teams do to the great players to take them out of the game.

by neds on Apr 19, 2010 12:43 PM MDT up reply actions

Melo switches every time too. So have his man set a screen for DWill and you will have Melo one-on-one w/ Williams who can then attack him if Miles or whoever Melo guards isn’t as good going to the rack.

Denver Stiffs.com: Defending the sovereignty of Nuggets Nation.

by Nate Timmons on Apr 19, 2010 1:57 PM MDT up reply actions

It's really hard not to feel anything but despair because of the Memo injury

1. For Memo’s sake
2. For the Jazz’ sake

in that order.

Offseason will be a clusterbagoonsa. I would rather trade the #9 pick (and whatever else it takes) for a proven vet (maybe one of those douche-bag twins from Stanford but not the collinses) than pick some big white hope to stack at the end of our bench with the rest of the tall white d-leaguers.

I'll make it coach.

by MTN on Apr 19, 2010 12:15 PM MDT reply actions

That doesn't work in the NBA

At least not in our market. With the rookie salary scale in place, you have to draft wisely and exploit draft labor for a few years to stay near the cap. Obviously this doesn’t matter for a team like LA. Did you realize that LA has the highest salary in the league this year at $91,000,000? Utah’s salary this year is about $75,000,000 for reference.

by tyrantking on Apr 19, 2010 1:20 PM MDT up reply actions

I fear Deron Williams pulling an Andre Miller tonight

taking on the scoring load from Okur’s absence and going for 35 points. Talented role players can change their role to “scoring” if it helps the team, and Deron is certainly no less talented than Andre Miller.

The key for Denver is to for Lawson and Billups to make Williams work on the defensive end and just make it humanly impossible to carry the Jazz on offense too.

by margabelle on Apr 19, 2010 12:56 PM MDT reply actions

Did you mean to call Deron a role player?

Cause that’s not cool unless the role is ninja.

by tyrantking on Apr 19, 2010 1:22 PM MDT up reply actions

Point guard - aka "ninja" - is a role...

maybe the most important role on a team and the good ones are some of the best players in the league — Deron included. But that “ninja” role does not usually call for 30 + points a game.

by margabelle on Apr 19, 2010 1:32 PM MDT up reply actions