NCAA Swing analysis of Harpring, Korver, Brewer, Almond, Matthews and Hayward
by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 12:38 AM MDT
35 comments
[EDITED July 2nd - Tables should now show, 2nd table was corrected, text changed to reflect new calculations]
First of all, sorry this is super late - I have no free time.
Okay, now that's out of the way, let's talk about Gordon Hayward. I know that he's listed as anything from 6'8/197 to 6'9/215. I think that no matter what his actual size, he's going to end up being one of the interchangeable wing players in the Jazz offense. He has a number of talents, as super Jazz fan #1 (aka UtesFan89) already enumerated. He can handle the ball a bit; drive and dish; and get rebounds. Coach Jerry Sloan is bonkers for wings who rebound. Deron Williams is also okay with playing off the ball a little bit (see: Brown, Dee; Head, Luther -- college teammates whom he shared the ball with), and going into shooting mode when necessary.
He's a big game player who looks to have a promising future in the NBA. Hayward had a really good tournament (how can this be denied as he led his team to the national championship game?) and appears to have a very high Basketball IQ. I don't hate this pick, but I was kinda expecting more from the mythical Knicks pick. I don't watch much college basketball, so in order to evaluate this guy I had to look at the stats. And in the desire for empiricism, I had to compare him to a few guys: Matt Harpring, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, Morris Almond and Wesley Matthews. These are all swingmen who have played for the Jazz in recent years, and all guys who went to college. (C.J. Miles did not, so I could not include him here)
Short analysis: He's like a mix of all of these players
Long analysis: click to read on . . .
Understanding draft picks (without actually being a scout or having the gift of foresight) based off of just their pre-draft measurements and NCAA statistics is quite akin to Arnold Schwarzenegger going undercover in a kindergarden. It ends up just becoming a guessing game better known as "who is your daddy, and what does he do?" Okay, maybe it's actually a bit more fruitful than that exercise. In fact, one can learn quite a bit from simply just the numbers.
Let's all look at how Hayward measures up to Harpring, Korver, Brewer, Almond and Matthews.
If anything, we fully well notice just how much of an amazing athlete Ronnie Brewer is by comparing him to the other guys he was competing with for playing time. After that we can notice some similarities between the players. Most of them were within 1" from being 6'7. Hayward is the tallest. (woo!) Unfortunately, out of the individuals who were so measured, he has the shortest wingspan. (This was a significant knock on J.J. Redick once his pre-draft measurements came out) A longer wingspan is very useful in the Utah Jazz deflection happy defense. We only need to look at the length of the Lakers which not only hurt us when they were getting layup after layup in the paint, but also in their ability to clog passing lanes with their gangly arms. Having longer arms can really help keep an offensive player honest if you aren't quick enough to stay in front of him. This is, after all, how a guy like Andrei Kirilenko could guard much quicker players and still be able to hamper them into missing shots. Further complicating things are the fact that Hayward is the tallest and skinniest guy there, and somehow also has the worst lane agility. (This is the speed that attempts to measure defensive movement) So out of all of these guys he's the slowest on defense, and has the shortest arms.He has a very healthy reach, but that's more a product of his height than anything else.
We were all told that he was a surprising athlete, but that may just be a result of his 3/4 court sprint (3.22 seconds). He's a lot faster than Korver, and Harpring we could also presume, but Morris Almond left him in the dirt in comparison. (Yes, that Morris Almond) His jumping ability was also superior to Korver, so that's good. It may make up for the fact that Korver has both longer arms, and a much quicker release. All-in-all, I was not too blown away by his measurements. But of course, it's not just all about the measurements (the 'who is your daddy' question, if you will) -- after all, Kirk Synder and Kris Humphries dominated their pre-draft combines when it came to their bench press and speed. It did not make them good basketball players. Alternatively, Monta Ellis couldn't even lift the bar up once - and he's a pretty solid guard in the NBA.
It would seem like the more important factor would be actual NCAA game performance (the 'what does he do' question for you Kindergarden Cops out there). Here's the breakdown of that:
Okay, I use more than just the regular stats you see in a boxscore. So I guess I should explain them.
GO Rating is short for Gestalt Offense. It's a complex formula that factors and weighs different offensive statistics. It's based upon a few premises (like an average player will shoot 75% from the free throw line, or has a 1.25 assist:turn over ratio and so forth). This value attempts to enumerate the amount of pressure an individual player puts on the defense. (Bigger number is better) Chris Mullin had a career regular season GO Rating of 87.719 for example. Scottie Pippen only had a 71.431. So it doesn't mean someone with a higher GO Rating is an over-all better player, just a better offensive player. Anything above 100 is a multiple-time All-Star. Mid 80's is a 2nd option, and so forth.
eFG% is ones effective FG%, which incorporates three point shooting and assigns a 'truer' value for your field goal shooting based upon difficulty (as seen by range). This statistic rewards players who take and make a number of three pointers. (And as a result, a pretty good thing to measure for swingmen)
Shooting Worth (SW) measures the worth of a shot. Some individuals are volume shooters and need a number of shots to get their gaudy scoring numbers. A classic example of this would be Allen Iverson. The average for an NBA Player in this era is around 1.22 -- a shooting worth that's less than this indicates a guy who should shoot less. A shooting worth that's higher indicates an efficient scorer. Karl Malone has a career shooting worth of 1.409. For comparison, Patrick Ewing (who got all the shots he wanted in NY) had a much more average shooting worth of 1.238.
Shooting Frequency (SF) measures how frequently a guy takes a shot (duh). This is, essentially, the number of minutes of playing time an individual needs to play before taking a single shot. A lower number means someone shoots more often than not. Shoot first point guard Allen Iverson shot the ball once ever 1.874 minutes (1:52 of playing time) -- which is quite frequently; by comparison Hall of Fame point guard John Stockton shot the ball once every 3.497 minutes (once every 3:30 minsof play for those who don't understand math). Big difference.
Defensive Gambling (DG) measures how 'lucky' a player is when they attempt to block a shot or steal the ball vs. how frequently they are called for a foul. This is an equation of sum of weighted blocks and steals over fouls. Pippen, a great defender, had a career DG of 1.41 Atlanta's Josh Smith(not including this past season) had a career DG of 1.645.
Pure Hustle (PH) is like DG, but it includes offensive rebounds and turn overs. I could go on and on about my stats, but I already did that back at my independent blog -- you can read all about it there
Now that we (kind of) understand all my terms, let's delve into the comparison of Hayward against all the other recent Jazz swings who played in college. Clearly he has a smaller sample size (only 69 games - due to leaving college early) which works against him. Still, we are able to identify a number of areas to be happy with.
He more than holds his own when it comes to rebounds (2nd), steals (3rd) and blocks (1st). (Take that all you wingspan haters!) Even better is that his inferential stats on defense are quite inspiring. He has a Defensive Gambling rating of 1.479 (2nd) -- which if you have been paying attention, means that he's almost one and a half times as likely of getting a block or steal than he is of getting called for a foul. (Of course, this will change as an NBA Rookie -- see: The Millsap Effect) Also his Pure Hustle Rating was very high, 1.305 (3nd) - bested only by Ronnie Brewer and Matt Hapring himself.
Of course, he was not drafted for his ability to dive for lose balls or not get called for fouls. He is supposed to be a very solid offensive player. This is not reflected at all by his GO Rating - there is only one guy worse than him, and that's Wes Matthews. Who? Oh yeah, the undrafted rookie who started on a team that won 50 games andhelped get his team to the second round by playing tough defense on Carmelo Anthony. Haywards lack of success here is more indicative of the type of game he was asked to play at Butler than any perceived inability to play at the NBA level. (case in point: Wes) What really hurts his rating is the fact that he shoots the ball once every 3:36 minutes on the floor (or 3.603 minutes). That's perfect for an NBA Rookie, but far from what some NCAA 'stars' aspire for. Morris Almond scored more ppg in 11 less minutes because of how frequently he shot the ball. This is another indication that shooting a lot does not make for NBA success. Despite shooting so infrequently, Hayward was still able to get to the free throw line nearly as many times a game as Carlos Boozer does in the playoffs. (Actually a bit more than Booz)
His percentages were middle of the pack except for when it involved three point shooting. We all heard about his struggles from behind the line as a Soph. This means little when you look at his entire career - where he still manged to make 36.943 3pt% (3rd) and have a nearly Korver-like 56.151 eFG% (2nd).The only real knock I can see (aside from his decision to be a team player andhardly shoot the ball) would be his assist numbers. For a guy with a lauded court vision and high Basketball IQ he only managed 1.812 (5th) assists per game -- besting only the black hole called Morris Almond. Maybe this is just him passing the ball to guys who can't score? I don't know, I did not watch college basketball - so Hayward (and Almond) get a pass from me in this regard. His assist:turn over ratio was not much better though (0.906) and looks to only improve when he learns the Utah Jazz offense.
He appears to be (statistically at least) a hybrid mix of a Jeff Hornacek (secondary play initiator with solid shooting percentages) and a Bryon Russell (size, hustle and not jacking shots) - for lack of better terms. The best aspect of his game, statistically, seems to be his understanding of the true value of a shot. He does not shoot often, but when he does, it's worth very much - 1.565 (1st), which is higher than Malone's careeer NBA shooting worth. He should be adequate on defense and be able to keep the defense honest when he's left open. If anything, he should take a little bit from each of the players he was compared to and add it to his game.
Harpring- Master the Harpring Curl and know how to move without the ball
Korver - work on getting a quicker shot release
Brewer - learn to read passing angles in order to get more deflections, despite the physical limitations of his wingspan
Almond - know that sometimes you have to take more shots
Matthews - understand that if you want to play for Sloan, you gotta play defense
Now if you excuse me, I have to go youtube more Kindergarden Cop videos . . . they are better than the Gordon Hayward rap videos for sure (That is something he can pick up from C.J. Miles)
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This
is why it takes me so long to actually post something, I try and make it fact based. These facts have to be found and then understood. I wish I wrote more opinion pieces . . .
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 12:55 AM MDT reply actions
any chance you ran an analysis on Wes last year before the season started?
don't be hatin' on my syntax
"why so seeerious?"
"oh ya mary's - quit being so sensitive!"
fantastic stuff ATJB!
will be nose diving into your blog for days me thinks. very, very cool.
don't be hatin' on my syntax
"why so seeerious?"
"oh ya mary's - quit being so sensitive!"
that's a very nice thing to say, thank you for your kind words!
now only if my wife could say something good about me for once, ha ha ha
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 1:00 AM MDT up reply actions
Awesome breakdown
Thanks for the hard work ATJB.
I think Hayward has something special though. Maybe it’s the intangables?
Regardless, it’s hard to harp on team players, over the selfish. That being said.
GO JAZZ
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
agreed
I think that he’s more than just the sum of his parts. I think he can learn a lot from Coach Hornacek (not just the offense, but knowing when and where to take shots in it, how to move in it, etc). If he can learn some trick shots too, boy, we’d look pretty good 2 years from now.
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 1:03 AM MDT up reply actions
Btw
This was also supposed to include highschool statistics as well, but I’m not going to spend all the extra hours searching for Matt Harpring High school stats. (I’d probably end up with his stats as a QB first . . . he played football don’tchaknow!)
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 1:04 AM MDT reply actions
question
is there any reason besides position (and maybe skin color) that people keep drawing up a harpring comparison? they seem like completely different types of players to me.
Stealing from my "What's A Gordon Hayward" post...
A constant threat on the glass, Hayward crashes the boards all game long, always jockeying for position vying to create extra possessions with his hustle.
I think that sounds more like Harpring than the other wings we’ve had recently, though I may be wrong about that. I might just be Boler mentioning “hustle” whenever Harpring was on the court that stuck with me…
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Harpring was a post / inside oriented player who did not make his money on elevation
Hayward is not quite as rugged, but from what I’ve read he does not shy away from contact (I would if I was that skinny), and he has a solid close range / mid-range game.
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 1:32 AM MDT up reply actions
ok that makes sense
but will he be able to crash the boards and jockey for position in the nba? matty (obligatory football reference) was/was built like a football player. hayward can spend all summer putting on muscle, but he would still only be 220 at the end of the summer.
On top of that
In college Hayward was constantly being put on bigger stronger interior PFs and Cs.
I mean he played Defense on Zubek (sp?) the Center for Duke in the championship game.
The kid has stones. I think it’s little things like that which might elevate him. Sloan could light a fire in his belly much like he did Matthews.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
Passing
I’m not certain about Hayward, but if I remember correctly, Almond was pretty much the offense at Rice after his first (or second?) season.
If you’re looking into it any more, my question would be whether or not Hayward’s assist numbers improved from 1st season to 2nd season.
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
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the website I went to for his college stats is acting buggy right now (Time to restart the browser window?)
but I think he made an improvement.
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 1:14 AM MDT up reply actions
K, was just wondering
1st year, he was more of a shooter. Opponents left him open (freshman, after all), and he was shooting at will. (He was open often, thus the 44% from downtown).
2nd year, defenses keyed in on him, forcing him to do other things. He kept shooting, but there were defenders on him (thus the 30% from downtown mark), so he had to find other ways to help his team.
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
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found out some bad news
1. As Freshman he got 1.969 apg, and as a Soph he got only 1.676 apg
2. The website I was using calculated his career statistics incorrectly so his column in my chart is incorrect. It’s way too late for me to fix it tonight, so I will do it tomorrow and, accordingly, adjust the analysis. But quickly:
Gordon Hayward (69 games, not 32)
MPG: 33.101
PPG: 14.377
FG%: 47.003
FT%: 82.353
3PT%: 36.943
eFG%: 56.151
1.681 made 3’s per game
4.928 FTA / game
1.565 shooting worth
3.603 shooting frequency
APG: 1.812
A:TO ratio: 0.906
RPG: 7.420
SPG: 1.275
BPG: 0.870
Fouls / Game: 2.058
Defensive Gambling: 1.479
Pure Hustle: 1.305
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 1:30 AM MDT up reply actions
Now I'm confused
about his assists thing. It doesn’t make sense with what I’ve read about his changes from year 1 to year 2…
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
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new stats are up now
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 7:56 AM MDT up reply actions
apparently hosting the images (in good resolution) on twitter does not work all the time
and when i upload my tables here, they get all blocky. not cool. sorry all. if anyone has a solution i’d like to hear it.
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 7:45 AM MDT reply actions
i'm linking the images from a webhosting solution for now. tell me if you can actually see things now
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 7:56 AM MDT up reply actions
I put up a fan post of GO Ratings
http://www.slcdunk.com/2010/7/2/1549192/frame-of-reference-for-go-ratings
It’s basically a list of different GO Rating Tiers, and the players who reside in them.
eg. Magic Johnson / Larry Bird / Karl Malone / Kobe all int the 135 range
eg. Kevin McHale, Pau Gasol, CHris Bosh, Tony Parker, Rolando Blackman in the 80’s
eg. Greg Ostertag gets a 12
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 8:50 AM MDT reply actions
Good Stuff
I would also be interested to see how successful their teams were. How do these stats equate to winning?
no current correlation exists between good stats and winning
you can get good stats on a bad team (chris paul), you can get bad stats on a bad team (kris humphries on the raptors). you can get good stats on a good team (kevin durant), and you could be fesenko (aka, bad stats on a good team).
We know that Rice sucked and Mobe was the only good guy there. Other teams have better recruitment or play in bigger conferences — Georgia Tech is a good example. I’m sure Harpring won more games, had better team mates, or both when compared to the other guys on this list. Brewer is another candidate as well.
Of course, there’s only so much validity to college stats — pistol pete scored 44 ppg once if I remember. I think Wes proves this point as he is the starter, and his college stats weren’t outstanding.
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 10:36 AM MDT up reply actions
I don't know if its just me or what
but the current images cut out all of Gordon Hayward’s stats…
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
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that's really no good.
here’s the stat breakdown: http://www.photoshop.com/accounts/2b9cfd5172294a0486be51ca0d78a064/px-assets/7d9c6c7e7ef94699a343be2617a09d59
here are the measurements: http://www.photoshop.com/accounts/2b9cfd5172294a0486be51ca0d78a064/px-assets/6bfa768d68c54a7eb5186169045f3969
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Really, I'm totally not lonely or anything . . .
by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 11:07 AM MDT up reply actions
when i try to link from twitter it doesn't work
when i try to upload to slcdunk it changes the resolution so you can’t read any of the stats. boo!
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Really, I'm totally not lonely or anything . . .
by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 11:08 AM MDT up reply actions
i'm viewing SLCdunk "wide".
when I switch to “narrow” I can reproduce the problem you guys are having. maybe switching to “wide” help out?
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 11:09 AM MDT reply actions
That works
but now I have to make my internet display wider on my monitor.
You and your inconveniences.
/whining
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
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Amazing job
this is detailed and deep…great job. The more you guys put together posts on our Butler kid the more I am a believer. Thanks.
Side note: Watching CJ try to do the Harpring curl just wasn’t as beautiful or consistant as Matt was as it.
"I've always said that John Stockton is one of the five best players I ever played against."
-- former NBA star and current TNT studio host Charles Barkley
Magness
I think part of it was all down to timing
CJ was too fast so that he never got the ball at the right time, while Harp would huff and puff and go through screens and get finally manage to get the ball – and it was the right time – so everything worked out way better.
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Really, I'm totally not lonely or anything . . .
by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jul 2, 2010 11:33 AM MDT up reply actions
That rap video.....
What the what? He is never going to live that down!
why does my breath smell like hot garbage?
Hello
First post – well, second actually. Thank you for all the work on this sort of thing. It’s always interesting to read; but I’m curious how similar the players NBA ratings are compared to their college ratings Have you found any correlation? You had mentioned you were going to try to look up their H.S. numbers. But how do the NBA numbers compare?
If you’ve posted this somewhere and I missed it – my apologies. Thanks again.
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