The Downbeat - 21 July 2010 - #276 - The Typing With One Finger Edition
by Basketball John on Jul 21, 2010 10:18 AM MDT
in The Downbeat
45 comments
Paul Millsap weighs in on "The Decision",
I was a little shocked when LeBron (James) made his decision. It seems like there’s a little cheating down there but I mean it is what it is. It could work out well for them but it could not. You never know which way it could go but as a player we have to come in and continue to do our jobs. Obviously, they have a target on their back just like the Lakers do but we’re gonna try our best to get to the top of the conference and the top of the league.
I wonder if that's how many players feel that way in that there was a little "cheating" going on with those three down in Miami.
Is this the biggest key (outside of salary) to getting free agents to come to Utah? Here's Raja,
"Cindy and I had a great time as a couple the last time we were here but there's four of us now," Bell added. "I think that's even better for our family because it's such a great place for kids and everybody is so family oriented out here. I think Cindy will have a great time taking them into the mountains and teaching them how to ski. I won't, I won't," Bell said with a smile.
Of course playing with Deron is right up there as well. Being a great place to raise kids has been mentioned numerous times by Jazz players.
So where does the whole family thing rate when players are making their decision?
It's no secret that the Lakers have had the Jazz's number for the past few seasons. We've talked about how most of that is a mental block. They have had more talent but the Jazz have the talent to at least not get swept.
I most excited about landing Raja and Jefferson because neither of them seem to have the mental roadblock against LA. We know what Bell has done in the past. Al has had good games against them in his career.
To me, this is the first step in being able to beat them. The first Lakers game of the season could be telling.
Open-ended poll... Where do the Jazz rank in the West now?
Wednesday poll
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1. It is definitely intriguing how they (the 3) all ended their contracts the same year and all waited to announce their team about 10 days after free agency started. “Cheating”, call it what you will.
2. Families are good for the vet guys and play a role, but for the young guys with no family of their own it’s all about the big lights. I think the perception is changing just a bit in sl,ut but still carries the “no-fun” tag with some.
8. Beat the Lakers in the postseason.
4. I think the Jazz are in the top 3 as of right now. Lakers, Utah and Dallas. Cases could be made for OKC and Denver, but OKC is missing a second fiddle. They had a good run last season, but unless they make some changes they won’t be a top 3 team. Denver just added Al Harrington. That equals self implosion with that roster. Unless Karl works some Rocky Mtn High miracle, they are going to be a tough team to coach. You always have to watch out for SA.
5. 51-55 range.
1 – I bet a lot of players feel that way. I’m not sold though. I don’t see it working out as well as they think it will.
2 – Gotta play to your strengths. Here’s what we have to offer: consistency, HOF coach, best point guard in the league, and a family friendly location.
8 – I can’t wait for our first test against LA. It will be a good measuring stick to see where we’re at and how close we are to getting over that hump.
4 – Agree with P_Dizzle. Top three. But I see the top three being LA, Utah, and OKC. Those guys are scary. If we can just make the top three though, I think we make it back to the WCF.
5 – I’m usually stupidly optimistic, so for me, I felt like playing it conservative and voted 51-55. I think they could win even more though if the new guys really mesh quickly.
On #1, I can't help but think about how much team chemistry plays in winning...
… I know it’s not the major factor, but it is a factor. Obviously skill has way more on the outcome, but I can’t help but think of the egos on some teams and how they will fair as the seasons go along…
Adjutant General, Matty Fan Club
64 "Phinsider Fued" Points..!!
"Official draft Koa Misi bus -- the A.J. Duhe of this decade!"
1 – Meh… It isn’t cheating. It is taking the easy way out, but not cheating.
2 – I still think it was and will almost always be about $$$
8 – I believe that it is mostly LA’s length, not some mental block, that is killing the Jazz. They have 3 Skilled Seven footers! The Jazz have 0. There were so many blocks and altered shots last year. I saw the Jazz getting frustrated a little bit more with each game, but really It was an issue of Length and talent. Was it a mental block that they really struggled against the other team (Oklahoma City) with a lot of length?
4 – I see the Jazz ending at maybe the 3 seed this year. I am an optimist!
5. 53 Wins..
by davidthecomposer on Jul 21, 2010 11:55 AM MDT reply actions
#8
Blocks and altered shots for sure. Also, every rebound!
It was like LA was playing against a bunch of 6th graders when everyone was jumping for a rebound. They seemed a foot taller than the Jazz. The Jazz are trying hard to get taller, but I just don’t think they’re there yet. We still don’t have a center (no, Memo doesn’t count). We’re good on PF, but even at SF we’re a tad short.
I’d love to be more optimistic, but I think LA is still going to be our brick wall. Hard stop. Season over.
Just throwing this out there
To match LA’s lineup of:
Fisher, Kobe, Odom, Gasol, Bynum
The Jazz counter with a lineup of:
Williams, AK, Millsap, Jefferson, Okur
Not the most athletic lineup and I think Millsap would get eaten up at the 3 position, but height-wise it’s better.
And davidthecomposer, I like how you said “Skilled” Seven footers! It’s one thing to have seven footers, it’s another thing to have “Skilled” seven footers. We need height that is on the floor NOT on the bench.
I think the majority of people feel cheated by the Heat.
I don’t care if it is allowed by the rules for players to join forces to make superteams, it shouldn’t be. It takes small market teams out of the running. I really think there should be a rule against that kind of player and player scheming.
I hope karma beyotch slaps the heat right in the face.
2. It’s always gonna be about money. The environment + perks will always ride second seat to that.
8. LA hasn’t been better than us talent wise. The jazz just seems to have a 10 minute stretch in them where they get owned and then they decide they are gonna play. It happens at different times in every game. I think it’s mental.
4. Jazz are 2+3 seed in my opinion.
5. 52+ wins
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
I think that we are counting on the Heat being as good as the hype
I think we need to remember that the 2003 Laker “Dream Team” with Payton, Malone, Shaq, and Kobe only managed 56 wins. Before that season people would have bet the farm that they would win 65 plus. Obviously things are different in that situation (such as average age of the team), but I think we shouldn’t count on anything until they actually play a game.
See I look at them as the 2004 USA Men's Olympic Basketball team.
You know the one, it featured such notable stars as Dwayne Wade and Lebron James. It also earned the bronze medal. Now I know that both players and Bosh were also present on the 2008 team that won gold, but Kobe was the leader of that team. I look at the Heat more as the leaderless train wreck of ’04.
1. agree with davidthecomposer
2. It’s different for every person, but my guess is that family environment is not high on many players list. Money, Title contention, and PT usually come before.
8. How we play against them in the regular season if both teams are healthy will be interesting, but the true measuring stick will be in the final weeks if both teams are still playing for something, and obviously the playoffs.
4.
1. Lakers
2. Jazz
3. Nuggets
4. Thunder
5. Mavericks
6. Blazers
7. Spurs
8. Suns (Rockets)
5. I said 56-60, but it’s more likely we win 51-55.
"I used to think I was indecisive, but now I'm not so sure."
Louisiana Jazz fan
If the Blazers do that poorly it will be a huge failure.
Unless they all get injured again.
In Bayless I trust.
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1- I agree with David. It is certainly the easy way out, but I think cheating is a little strong. It is interesting to see the discrepancy between this year’s Heat and when the Celtics added their big three. I seem not to remember so much outrage.
2-I think that in order for us to really understand if the family environment is a true asset we need to know how many FA have kids. Im not sure if that is such a priority in the decision making process.
8- I think that this is where Bell’s “veteran leadership” could come in handy. So many of our younger players are used to being slapped around. It will be nice to have a leader on the floor standing up to them, or clotheslining as it were.
4-
1. Lakers
2. Mavs
3. Jazz
4. OKC
5. Nugs
6. Blazers
7. Spurs
8. Rockets
5- 51-55. If I go more specific, I would say 54 wins as my official prediction
Re: 1-
I think that is because it was Boston’s front office working the magic and not the players themselves deciding they would team up.
Also,
I would argue that Allen and Garnett weren’t the same level of caliber as Bosh and Lebron
Pierce isn’t like Wade either.
They are all upper tier players and Garnett who had been a dominate force was already ancient in playing years.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
1- We can see the competitive nature of Paul Millsap with his strongly opinionated comment.
8 – Agree it’s a mental issue. With Bell and Jefferson (“Real men are made in the paint”), the Jazz will have a tougher mentality this year.
1. Fakers
2. Jazz
3. Nugs
4. Mavs
5. OKC
6. Blazers
7. Spurs
8. Rockets
i genuinely think this jazz team is better than last years.
So I expect them to get a top 3 seed in the next two seasons and i think we are good enough to be the 2nd seed this year.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
by clarkpojo on Jul 21, 2010 2:50 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
1- Lakers
2A-Jazz
2B-Mavs
2C-Spurs
2D-Thuggets
2E-Spurs
2F-Blazers
2G-Thunder
I can’t put one of the 2 teams above the other right now, but they’re all significantly below the lakers still. I think the Jazz, Thunder, and Mavs have the best chance to rise above the rest of the 2s.
as tight as the conference was last year? hellz we were one game from being third
and with all the changes in rosters across the west, Yao being back – seriously it has to be a crap shoot right now.
we could land anywhere from 2-6th. my guess is 3rd or 4th as it will take some time to gel but then i see them playing better and going further in the playoffs.
T-Wolves
Everybody is forgetting about their blockbuster summer pick-up. A little known player that has extreme upside and capabilities not of this universe KOOF. I think all teams from our division will be in the playoffs It wil be tight between Us OKC Denver and the Mathews for a division championship and a top 3 seed.
Not forgetting
Trust me I was considering the T-Wolves with the KOOF addition, but supposedly they are thinking of shopping him to Cleveland or some place else. So for THAT factor I had to keep them out of the top 3. But IF they keep KOOF, watch out!!
Order of finish
1. Lakers
2. Jazz
3. Blazers
4. Mavs
5. Nuggets
6. Spurs
7. OKC
8. Rockets
I think the Jazz will start slow but end up winning 51-55.
"People who write about spring training not being necessary have never tried to throw a baseball."
Sandy Koufax
Nah, they won't start slow
They’ll start on fire … just like they have every time they’ve done a roster overhaul in the past decade.
But then things will lull. They’ll kind of gunk things up as old bad habits (particularly Al’s bad habits) start taking over. The team will muck around in mediocrity for a few weeks. And then …
Well that’s what needs to be determined. Will they fight through? Will Al replace bad habits with good ones? I actually think they’ll start clicking for the final half of the season and roar into the end. But a whole lot depends on Al.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I refuse to predict unless I see how Al fits in with the Jazz
Read my post if you’re curious.
But here are the teams that I believe will be very, very tough in the West:
Lakers, but not as much. I believe they’re fading. They lucked out to win their championship.
OKC
Portland (IF, IF, IF they are healthy)
Phoenix – they greatest Ewing Theory Team in a long time. They’ll be better without Amare: bank it.
Utah
Spurs. Yeah, they’re old. But I’ll stop worrying about them when Duncan retires. Not one second earlier.
Nuggets don’t scare me. Neither do the Mavs.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I must be out of the loop...
but could someone explain what this “Ewing Theory” is? Cause everyone talks about it, and I have no idea what it is.
Coined by Bill Simmons "The Sports Guy" at ESPN.com
Here’s the basics:
1. A player receives tons of attention, acclaim, etc., possibly more than he actually deserves
2. The player’s team never actually wins anything significant with him (maybe an early playoff series or two, but that’s it)
3. The player leaves (via free agency, injury, trade, etc.)
4. The media and fans immediately write off the player’s old team
Ewing Theory predicts that when these four conditions exist:
The team will perform better without the star player it just lost.
And it does really happen. See:
’94 UConn basketball
’98 Utah Utes basketball team
’98 Tennessee college football team
’99 Knicks
’99 Red Sox
’01 Seattle Mariners
’02 New England Patriots
’04 Red Sox
’07 New York Giants
Actually, will be 3 huge Ewing Theory teams in the NBA next year: Phoenix, Toronto, and Cleveland. Toronto will be better. Phoenix will be better (and it will be more noticeable, since they were already good). Cleveland … well, nobody thinks Cleveland will be better.
But the crazy thing is they are the biggest Ewing Theory team of all time. And there are little hints that they’ll be better than anyone expects—even if nobody really believes it. I don’t believe it. But … what if it happens? Not in terms of more than 65 wins, but what if they make the second round of the playoffs. What if they put up more of a fight than they did last year?
Crazy stuff.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
i don't think boozer is good enough to qualify for the ewing theory
by bigdog'sshades on Jul 21, 2010 9:32 PM MDT up reply actions
Listen to Locke and his double-double, 20-10 guy fawning
Of course Boozer wasn’t good enough. Nobody who ends up bringing about a Ewing Theory case was good enough. That’s kind of the point. But the majority of fans and media treat the player as if he is. And usually even the team gets overly dominated by that player’s presence.
I think of all the end of the world moaning that happened when Boozer left (before Al came on board). I think of all the posts and comments proclaiming the Jazz were headed to the lottery. I mean you’d think we had just lost a 2x MVP. You’d think Boozer was 10x better and more important than Deron. That’s the kind of thing that brings out Ewing Theory alert.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I am a big advocate of the Ewing Theory, or at least "stars" holding their team back. It should be called the Dantley theory.
But you are underestimating Lebron James and in some ways, Amare Stoudemire and Chris Bosh.
To be a detriment to your team while putting up “great” numbers, you essentially have to be inefficient offensively while shooting a lot. Lebron James, Bosh and Stoudemire are all pretty efficient scorers. Stoudemire and Bosh draw fouls at a high rate and shoot a good fg%. Stoudemire’s problem is his defense and rebounding. Boozer’s problem was his defense and his inefficient, or at least not very efficient offensive game. Boozer is a fantastic defensive rebounder, but average or below average in every other phase of the game.
But Toronto, Cleveland and Phoenix are going to take a hit. Phoenix now has Turkoglu and Hakim Warrick as their main replacements at the 4 spot.
Toronto went 40-42 last season. They will not win more than 40 games this season. Probably more like 35.
Phoenix won 54 and got the 3 seed. They will be 6th or lower this season.
And there is no chance in hell that the Cavaliers will make the playoffs with their current roster. Have you seen it?
It’s going to be Mo Williams, player acquired in Delonte West trade, Antawn Jamison, JJ Hickson, and Anderson Varajao as your starters with Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker off the bench. They will struggle mightily. We are talking 25 wins next season.
I know you love the Ewing theory, but its an exception, usually not the rule. Just because you don’t like a player and he switches teams, doesn’t mean that team will be better.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
Oh... maybe I don't need to do the work on the Ewing theory?
you strike me as the kind of guy who has probably already looked in to it in detail.
by davidthecomposer on Jul 21, 2010 11:10 PM MDT up reply actions
I am sure I can prove that the "Ewing Theory" is BS
I have already looked at a lot of those supposed examples and they all had actual reasons (so far) why they happened (not just some nebulous magical theory of addition by subtraction).
It is funny because it is one of those things where you only need a few examples of a Star leaving and a team getting hot (again correlation, not causation) to make some people believe it, when if you look at the vast majority of cases, losing a major talent without replacing it leads to a lot of prolonged losing. Anyway I am in the middle of looking at this in depth so maybe I will find that I was mistaken after further review.
by davidthecomposer on Jul 21, 2010 11:08 PM MDT up reply actions
Webber
I’m not sure we should understand the Ewing theory as actually normative. The point is to describe a certain phenomenon, even if the the phenomenon actually has other causes. To my mind the big test of the theory came when Chris Webber was injured during one of the Kings playoff runs. His highly lauded but not necessarily effective game represented everything Simmons was/is talking about with the theory. Fwiw, when Webber went down, the Kings fell apart.
BS
Ewing led the Knicks to finals Finals in 95, the serious went 7 games, I know he never won a ring but the knicks were a very good team in the 90s. Since Stockton and Malone couldn’t beat Jordan, should they have this retarded theory thrust on them too?
OKC at 2
seems about right. There are about 6-7 teams that can finish either 2 or 8 in the West. So it’s very hard to predict right now. I would have to base it on which teams will give the Jazz trouble, and after LA, OKC seems to be a logical candidate. Other than that, 6-7 teams, including the Jazz, can go any which way
Last thing I want to say about the Ewing Theory
The discussion has kind of gotten out of hand. A lot of it is my own fault. I brought it up. I kept talking about it. But this is it.
It’s actually not, to me, the most important idea in the history of sports. But it’s a fascinating one. Particularly when it happens in dramatic ways. And I’m bringing it up now because there are three major possibilities for next season. And seeing how they play out is one of the things I’m looking forward to. So I’m an idiot for wondering about these things, I suppose.
A. Toronto.
What are the signs? Bosh was supposedly a superstar, a max contract player, yet he has only made it to the playoffs twice, never winning a single series, and didn’t make the playoffs at all during the past 2 seasons, when he was supposedly a beast. And it’s not like the other players on his team were atrocious. Plus they’re in the Eastern conference. Seriously, compare that team to the roster of the 2003 NBA Champs (Spurs). On paper, where we don’t get to see the intangibles, the 2010 Raptors look better. And they don’t even make the playoffs. In the East. Isn’t that weird?
B. Phoenix
What are the signs? Amare is an atrocious defender, a mediocre rebounder, and can’t pass worth a lick. The Suns were atrocious with Amare scoring 20/game pre-Nash. The Suns were again conference finalists in ’06 when Amare missed the entire season with his knee injury. Yes, Amare was young and stuck with freaking Stephon Marbury in the pre-Nash days. Yes even the ’06 season was with a different kind of team. But still … there are some red flags here.
C. Cleveland
The craziest of all. What are the signs? More than anything else, there’s this: no team went with a give-the-ball-to-the-star-while-everyone-else-stands-around-and-watches offense more than Cleveland. No team put more emphasis on its star. No team more likely put its other players into full stagnation. Yeah, LeBron’s really, really, really freaking good. But do you know what? 2002-03 Duncan was better, his teammates had less to offer, yet the Spurs never remotely resembled the Cleveland LeBrons. And then there’s LeBron’s performances the past two playoffs. Particularly this last one. Has a 2-time MVP ever ended the season on as pitiful a whimper as LeBron did? It wasn’t just that he lost. Jazz fans know too well that 2-time MVP’s can lose. But it was the lack of effort, the apparent disregard for what was going on, the seeming celebration that he lost and was done with Cleveland forever.
So yeah, I’m fascinated with Cleveland. Because I’m not interested in the Ewing Theory in terms of effectiveness of shots, etc. What interests me is stagnation of teammates because everything about the team is dominated by the star. Remember Allen Iverson and his 76’ers? Remember how so many writers and fans justified Iverson jacking up shots and shooting a terrible percentage because teammates obviously stunk? Matt Harpring was on that team. Of course Harpring later moved to the Jazz and immediately scored 17 ppg.
What got me wasn’t just the scoring and Iverson’s terrible inefficiency. It was what Matt said he and the other players had been told to do by their coaches: stand around, watch Iverson, go for the offensive rebound, and get points off the put-backs and other garbage points. That’s total stagnation of 11 players, all so everything could revolve around the star. And Harpring proved later that at least he was much better than the role given him by those Iverson-dominated 76’ers.
And so Cleveland interests me. Their offensive game-plan reminded me of those Iverson teams quite a bit. So I wonder how many of them are actually better than their roles indicated? True, LeBron >> Iverson. But still. How much stagnation occurred? How much player growth was hindered? How many roles were reduced without good reason—only superstar ego and coaching incompetence? And what will happen to those formerly stagnant players now that the star is gone, now that all will have bigger roles, now that the offense MUST rely on all of them to make things happen?
It’s crazy stuff.
I think Toronto will be better next year. I would not be surprised to see them make the playoffs. Probably a low seed (7 or 8), but I would not be shocked at all. It is the East, after all. Milwaukee’s counting on Bad Porn Maggette to make them better. Does Charlotte even have a PG? There are two playoff spots possibly up for the taking. I’m very much in the minority, but it wouldn’t shock me.
I think Phoenix will be better. Their record may not be better—there are so many tough teams in the West beating each other up. And with a possible mild Laker decline combined with likely team improvements from OKC, Portland, and Utah—plus the Mavs and Spurs and Nuggets still in there, not to mention Houston with Yao again. Yikes. And when there are so many teams this good, where the difference between #2 seed and #8 is 5 wins, where you have to win 50 just to make the playoffs—it’s not the record I’m looking at this year. Too much can happen with chance and scheduling when the margin is that close. I simply think that if 2010-11 Suns played 2009-10 Suns the 10-11 Suns would win more often than not. I think they’ll be tough. I think Jazz will be very lucky to go 3-1 against them again.
I think Cavs will be much, much worse next year.
But there are just enough signs of unwarranted stagnation under LeBron and Mike Brown that I’m curious to see what actually happens. There’s just enough for me to feel a twinge of anticipation of what could be the most stunning Ewing Theory manifestation of all time.
As terrible as the odds are, what would it feel like to see the Cavs pull together and have a good season? At this point, in the dog-days of July, am I really that much of a moron for playing around with a little mental “what-if?”
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Haha yeah it has gotten a little heated.
Go Jazz! We can all agree on that at least.
by davidthecomposer on Jul 22, 2010 1:20 AM MDT up reply actions
WOOOHOOO
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
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