The Downbeat - 4 August 2010 - #286 - The Five Questions For Next Season Edition
by Basketball John on Aug 4, 2010 10:15 AM MDT
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How well will this team come together and play together? For a team that prides itself on stability and continuity, this is one of the biggest shakeups since the end of the 2003 season when Arroyo, Bell, Harpring, AK, Ostertag, and Stevenson were the carryovers to 2004.
As of now we only have 6 players from last season currently signed: AK, Miles, Millsap, Okur, Price, and Williams. I assume that Fesenko will be back but I was almost positive that Matthews was going to be back as well. Gaines could be back as well.
We didn't lose to Hall of Famer's this off-season like we did in 2003, but Boozer, Korver, Matthews, and to an extent Brewer, is still a large chunk of that base to lose.
We know that Jefferson wants to play here and seems to have a good rapport with Deron already. Bell spurned Kobe and LA to come play again for Sloan and the Jazz. I don't think there's going to be any problems with team chemistry.
Where it's going to take some time to come together is simply getting used to playing with each other. Deron's play-making will alleviate some of that but it's going to take a while both on offense and defense to having Jefferson in the post with Millsap instead of Okur and Boozer.
I can't remember which player said it, but he stated that the Jazz run the same thing nearly every time down the court so that the players don't have to think about what they're doing, they can just react.
They'll have training camp and the pre-season to get that down but you don't get 6 seasons of experience in a few weeks.
Is this a better team than last season? Off the top of my head I don't believe we're worse so we're either about the same (52 wins) or a little better. What starting lineup do you like better?
2010 2011
Williams Williams
Matthews Bell
CJ CJ
Boozer Millsap
Okur Jefferson
The first three are a wash. Where the difference comes is with that front-court and the bench players. I think the Jazz score about the same next season. While Millsap might not quite match Boozer's numbers, those points are going to get spread around.
Where the Jazz I believe get better a bit is defensively. Millsap is a better defender that Boozer, that much is known. Jefferson has the same rap that Boozer has had on the defensive end. So you have to look at whether Al is better than Memo at the center. We'll have to see if Jerry can instill some defensive prowess into Jefferson's game.
Last year's bench consisted of Korver, AK, and Millsap primarily. This season will give us Memo, AK, and Hayward. That's where we might lose a bit with Hayward instead of Korver.
I said before that the first three on the starting list was a wash. However, I think the Jazz can get better depending on what CJ shows up. Which leads me to...
Are we going to get smart or dumb CJ to start the season? We saw him turn it on late last season mainly because he started taking it to the hole a lot more instead of pulling up. He also got a lot smarter about distributing the ball vs. taking the shot. That's important because as much as we like him taking it to the rim, he's going to be needed to provide the outside shot.
If I'm the coaching staff, I lock CJ in a room, tape his eyes open, and have him watch his games from April on. I really think he's going to be the key to a good start for the team. If we can avoid the typical December letdown, we'll be in good shape.
How's the front-court rotation going to shake out? The assumption right now is that the starting lineup would consist of Williams, Bell, CJ, Millsap, and Okur Jefferson. That leaves about $27M on the bench in the form of Okur and Kirilenko.
Millsap has averaged 35 minutes a game (which is good considering that he's known for getting into foul trouble) when he's started and Jefferson has played 34 minutes a game in his career as a starter. That leaves about 27 minutes of PT available.
AK is going to get minutes at both the 4 and the 3 while Memo is going to get most of his backing up Al. Okur has averaged about 32 minutes a game while starting so going to 10-15 a game is quite the reduction in playing time for a $10M player. He looks like he's a bit head of schedule with his recovery from injury when he was playing in Deron's golf tourney a few weeks back. Of course playing golf while riding in a cart is a far cry from NBA basketball.
I'll leave the last one up to you. What's a question you have for the upcoming season?
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Agreed
Ak will start. The Jazz played much better with him in the starting lineup last year, Sloan even mentioned as much. I also don’t think starting Bell instead of Matthews is a wash. I love Wes, but Raja, if healthy, will be more valuable to the team than Wes. He just brings a different mentality to our team. I guess Raja will score about the same as Wes and they both are good defenders so in that regard they might be a wash, but I think the intangibles that Raja brings make him slightly better.
definitely AK over CJ to start the year
AK completely changed the team when he jumped into the starting role. But I could see Sloan mixing it up since AK might be seeing minutes at the 4. This would have me leaning toward CJ starting, but to start off I think AK has earned that role in the starting 5.
I also expect AK to start
Just because a lot of the backup PF minutes will go to AK doesn’t mean he has to come off the bench. I’d want to hear an absurdly brilliant reason if AK doesn’t start – because you’re right that putting him in the starting lineup transformed the team.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I think AK should start.
However, it is going to make Sloan’s substitution patterns interesting.
Who subs first? Do you sub Hayward in, take Millsap out and move AK to the four? Do you sub Okur in and move Jefferson to the four? Do you sub Hayward and Okur in for Millsap and AK? Or Bell and Jefferson? Cj, Hayward and Okur at the same time?
There is a lot of versatility on this team and I love it, but it also makes Sloan’s job much more interesting.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
Absolutely right it will be very interesting
Because there won’t really be a 2nd unit if AK starts. We won’t see a lineup of all the subs plus a starter. It will be plug a sub in here and there. My hunch is we won’t see more than 3 subs in at a time this year.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Agreed.
Like I said below.
Sloan doesn’t really rotate front courts or backcourts like they were hockey lines. He plugs in players here and there.
That’s why I’m not worried about saying “Price, Hayward, CJ, Memo, Fesenko” is our second line. Cause it’ll be very rarely we see that lineup…. or for extended periods of times.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
I should really make more typos
To get more comments.
by Basketball John on Aug 4, 2010 10:52 AM MDT up reply actions
Opening night
I’m sure everyone who reads this blog has seen this already. But just in case:
Thursday, Oct. 28 Suns vs. Jazz TNT 10:30 ET
I’m sure Ross is laughing to himself right now. The schedule starts right out with an 8:30 tipoff.
I have a question about NBA League pass broadband...
I live in the married housing on the University of Utah campus. They just recently cut comcast from all the apartments, so we will not receive any Jazz games on TV. I don’t know much about league pass broadband, but I have heard there are blackout rules. Does anybody understand the rules well enough to explain them? Also, if I am blacked out from all the Jazz games, can I purchase the package when I am visiting my family in Arkansas and use it while I am here? Or does the blackout apply to I.P. address, rather than purchasing location. Lastly, if none of this will work for me, what will be the best way to receive jazz games without having cable? Thanks ahead of time for the help.
Follow me on twitter @JD23UT
NBA Audio Pass
Since the Jazz opted to remove all their games from publicly available channels, I listen to the games on-line through the NBA’s Audio Pass (it’s free).
Hello neighbor!
The cable is only out temporarily. Re-read your email. They cut it to upgrade the wiring in the buildings so that residents can add channels, order DVRs, etc. You just pay the cost of whatever extra features you decide to add.
I’m not sure how long it will be out, but my guess is the project will be done well before the Jazz season starts. And I’ll be adding FSN HD! :)
I have a source who is in direct contact with Comcast
We could have cable tomorrow if they wanted. They are in a contract dispute right now. Comcast wants more money than the University is willing to pay. We get cable as soon as a contract is settled. From what I have been told, the negotiations are not going well.
Follow me on twitter @JD23UT
Interesting...
So what they told us via email was fabricated? That seems… strange.
Either way, I’ll fill you in on a little secret. Buy a TiVo and you’ll have cable now. I bought one when I first moved to the village since I couldn’t get a DVR through Comcast. Everyone in my building has been without cable for a couple of weeks, but mine is going strong. The TiVo has a signal amplifier which brings in a lot of HD channels too. You can find an older generation one refurbished for under $200. Well worth it.
I didn't realize that about TiVo.
and ya, the rewiring is already done, they just have to flip the switch. They gave all of the MLB Network channels in HD on accident for the first three days, then it disappeared :)
Follow me on twitter @JD23UT
I had broadband
a few years ago when I was interning in Houston, and will get it again when I move back to Houston in a few weeks (will still remain a loyal jazz fan).
Broadband uses IP addresses, so you will NOT be able to watch Jazz games if you are in Utah’s market when you are trying to watch the game, regardless of where you actually purchase the service. Kind of stinks.
I thought it was a good service though. Relatively cheap for being able to watch a lot of NBA games. Good quality. DVR functionality if you missed the game for whatever reason. Good luck with your area’s cable dispute…
by scrantonicity33 on Aug 4, 2010 12:29 PM MDT up reply actions
1. This is the million dollar question right now. On paper things look good, but what are we actually going to get?? If we have a winning record on the December road trip, then I am optimistic.
2. One of my co-workers asked me if the Jazz will get 60 wins this season. I don’t think we get 60 but I think we get around 55. As for your lineup, I think this years lineup is better defensively. I know AJ can improve defensively, but he had 98 blocked shots compared to Boozer with 36 last year. So I will take that.
8. Hopefully smart CJ. Hopefully he understands what worked for him and why. I think he is maturing.
4. Glad I don’t have to manage that, but I think until Okur comes back, AK will see more playing time at 4. Hopefully everyone stays healthy so Sloan has this problem, I just don’t want the opposite.
5. Here is the question of the day, what does CJ stand for in CJ Miles? Chris Jericho Miles? Crowther June Miles? WHAT does it stand for?
His full name is
Calvin Andre Miles Junior.
So the CJ is Calvin Junior.
Dangit!
I was hoping this season he would let the cat out of the bag. He actually has probably already let it out, it’s just that I didn’t know. So that was my big question heading into the season. Now that it has been answered I am lost. I am wandering with no aim.
I think your starting lineup is wrong.
Okur should not be starting. I don’t care if he thinks he is 100% on opening day, the dude has been out and needs time to play back into shape. I don’t want him running with the first team until I see that he can handle it. I also think Jerry has learned his lesson about starting AK/ playing him as a 6th man. Ak is much better when he starts. I understand the idea that he gives a spark coming off the bench but he is MUCH more valuable starting. IMO.
So I see Williams, Bell, AK, Milsap, Jefferson. CJ or Memo is the 6th man. I’m thinking it’s CJ so he can spell Raja Bell’s old legs or come in for for Milsap and AK slides to the 4 when hegets in foul trouble.
5. That’s my biggest question. How does Milsap respond having an increased role in the offense? Does he have problems with foul trouble? Is he still going to make the same hustle plays? Is his jumpshot going to improve?
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
Umm....
He doesn’t have Okur starting. By 2010 he means last season (‘09-’10) and this year 2011 (‘10-’11) he has Jefferson starting
Yep
Because seasons span years, it’s kind of confusing but most everyone refers to the season with the year it ends in. So this upcoming season is the 2011 season.
by Basketball John on Aug 4, 2010 2:33 PM MDT up reply actions
Look at 4, not 2
The first paragraph of 4. There he has Okur as starting for the upcoming season. However, it’s clearly a typo (possibly another shameless tactic for yet more comments) because he also has Okur coming off the bench.
Unless…Memo has now become capable of both starting AND coming off the bench in the same game. All hail Memo!
Thanks. I didn't even notice that.
Just used to having Memo starting.
by Basketball John on Aug 4, 2010 4:37 PM MDT up reply actions
I was commenting on
paragraph 4, not paragraph 2
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
Clarification
BBJ was showing the difference in the starting lineups from last season (2010) to this season (2011). He doesn’t have Okur in his starting lineup.
I agree with you on AK though. He needs to start.
The reason I want AK coming off the bench is for playmaking
I think he would be fantastic either way but a second unit of Price, 2 guard (who’s this going to be exactly, Hayward?), CJ, Memo, and Fesenko kind of scares me. I’d be much more comfortable with AK in there.
by Basketball John on Aug 4, 2010 2:36 PM MDT up reply actions
I fully expect
Jefferson, Milsap or AK to be rotated into playing with the second team depending on fouls, energy, and how well they are playing. There will be plenty of vet leadership in the second team.
I’m thinking combos like:
Cj, Milsap, Memo/ Ak, Memo, Jefferson/ Ak, Jefferson, Fesenko/ etc etc
I don’t think we’ll see a second team lineup like you mention very often and if there is it won’t be more than a minute or a two.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
Very true
This is the way Sloan usually does it. I don’t see a straight bench unit getting anything other than garbage time.
Yes
It’s not like we are going to be rotating the first and second team like Hockey…..
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
Was commenting
on paragraph 4 not 2
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
I think the Jazz will be better than last year. Jefferson is taller and is better in the low post than Boozer. Bell won’t be much of a drop off, if not better, than Matthews. I predict by mid season, Hayward will be more valuable than Korver was. He plays with intensity, seems to be a hard worker and has the winners attitude. He won’t equal 3 point, but everywhere else, I predict by mid season he’ll be better than Korver.
If Kirilenko and Okur stay healthy, I see the Jazz competing with the Mavs and Thunder for the 2nd spot in the west.
Millsap is a better defender that Boozer, that much is known.
Is this really known? Last year, Boozer was better according to DRtg and DWS/48. He also had a higher DRB% and less PF/48. And he played against superior competition. Millsap was good. Boozer was better.
It's known to me
because I watched the games and could see that Millsap was more effective than “Memo, HELP!”
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
If PF/48 indicates good defense then Wilt was 1000x better, defensively, than Bill Russell
Do you believe that?
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
PF/48 doesn't indicate good defense
But, would you rather have player X average 6.01 PF/48 or 4.85 PF/48?
Depends
on whether player X gets fewer fouls by letting guys drive to the basket uncontested for dunk after dunk after dunk.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Boozer isn't a better defender than Millsap, but he is a better defensive rebounder. I think Jefferson will eat up a lot of defensive boards though.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
In fact, it is really a no brainer.
Boozer literally couldn’t defend the pick and roll. If you don’t understand this concept, than I don’t know what to tell you. Man to man on the block, Boozer is probably as good as Millsap, but Millsap can guard the pick and roll effectively and he is 11.5 times better than Boozer with weakside defense.
But again, Boozer is a better defensive rebounder, so in some defensive terms, he scores really nicely, because he grabs such a high percentage of defensive rebounds available.
But all you have to do is watch Millsap and Boozer in P & R situations to know who is a better defender. Not to mention the huge difference in blocks, mostly off the weakside covering for a blown defensive assignment.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
11.5 times
it works everytime…
lol
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
That's fine
But, why do teams score more points when Millsap is on the floor than when Boozer is on the floor?
If
I remember correctly from a previous Fanpost… Teams actually average 4 points LESS against the Jazz when Milsap started verse when Boozer started.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
Perhaps
But, since Millsap started only 8 games, that’s a pretty small sample.
Opponents scored 102 points per 100 possessions when Boozer was on the floor, which was the lowest on the Jazz. Millsap and AK were right behind him at 103. Matthews was last at 108.
And that is why I don't trust defensive statistics
I watched Matthews play defense. I saw the kind of shots he pushed opponents into. I saw how many turnovers he was involved in.
Boozer was a great defender? Matthews was the worst? That alone should tell us that these stats may not be the best at reflecting who is and isn’t a good defender. That maybe the means by which the statiticians calculated the numbers were not the best in the world.
It’s kind of like when the Mavs traded for Jason Kidd and said that, according to their statistics, Kidd was by far the best PG in the league right then. Well, that’s great that they can mash some numbers to justify the trade … but the stats are worthless if they don’t actually represent what happens on the court, in the games. And there were about 8 PG’s better than Kidd at the time.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
That maybe the means by which the statiticians calculated the numbers were not the best in the world.
Calculating points allowed while a player is on the floor isn’t rocket science. And it should count for something. Does this alone mean someone is a good/bad defender? No. But, the fact that the Jazz gave up the least amount of points (on average) while Boozer was on the floor should mean something.
those numbers are wrong though. It is a glitch or something.
We have had this debate before. Boozer gave up a worse than average (for the team) amount of points while playing. Fesenko’s numbers were the best.
NBA.com doesn’t have the +/- numbers up anymore, but when Carlos Boozer was on the floor the Jazz gave up 2.2 points per minute and only scored 2.1.
the stat is wrong. The Jazz gave up more than average amounts of points when Boozer was on the floor. For the record, Millsap’s numbers were insignificantly better.
That stat that you have found is on a website that actually has conflicting data on Boozer’s defense.
But what does your heart tell you? Do you really believe that Carlos Boozer is the Jazz’s best defender? Just think about it for a minute, before you start defending him as such.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
Do you really believe that Carlos Boozer is the Jazz’s best defender?
No, I don’t. But, I don’t think he’s one of the worst in the league either. He can be frustrating at times but his rebounding was huge on the defensive end and he was OK defending one-on-one. I just think he’s a little underrated.
He got
paid way tooooooo much to be “underrated.”
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
the jazz kept individual defensive grades for the first time last season
according to the jazz’s own grades, matthews was the best defender on the team.
Here's a breakdown of Boozer's defense
From an insider article from ESPN.com during free agency:
According to basketballvalue.com, the Jazz were nearly two points worse with Boozer on the court over the past two seasons, even after adjusting for the strength of his teammates and opponents. How could a 20-and-10 guy be a detriment to his team? Well, don’t forget that defense is half the game.
It’s an irrefutable fact that the Jazz were better defensively without Boozer this past season. The Jazz allowed six more points every 100 possessions while Boozer was on the court relative to when he sat the bench. His offensive exploits failed to make up for his defensive deficiencies, as he improved the Jazz’s scoring by only four points — a net margin of minus-two points.
Boozer’s ineffectiveness on the defensive end was often hard to notice because of the ubiquitous security blanket that is Andrei Kirilenko.
“Boozer hasn’t quite been exposed for as bad as he can be defensively because he’s played with guys who cover up for him a lot,” one Western Conference executive said.
Another high-level league source agrees with the sentiment that Boozer necessitates someone who can clean up his defensive messes.
“Boozer at least tries,” the source said, “but players can get around him, and he isn’t a shot blocker.”
Suitors have to hope the embarrassing failed rotations during the second-round playoff matchup against the Lakers were an aberration, as Boozer hardly put a dent in the Lakers frontline. Championship teams need a defensive anchor. Despite his lofty price tag, Boozer will never be that guy.
by scrantonicity33 on Aug 4, 2010 8:50 PM MDT up reply actions
That's interesting
The Jazz allowed six more points every 100 possessions while Boozer was on the court relative to when he sat the bench.
I’m not sure how to respond to that. Basketball-Reference.com says otherwise.
This is what I found at your link.
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.
On court- 113.1
Off court- 109.8 +3.3
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.
108.5- on court
102.8- off court +5.7
So in other words, basketball-reference’s link to 82games.com shows that the Jazz were 3.3 points better offensively with Boozer and 5.7 points worse.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
Where did you get those numbers?
I was looking at DRtg. Which I thought was (Points Allowed)/(Possessions)*100
why the hell are we still arguing about boozers defense?
Honestly I couldn’t care less what boozers numbers were. He is gone. We have all watched the Jazz play over and over and it was always very apparent that Boozer was a selfish defender, and was unwilling to leave his man to help the team defense.
I can’t wait to see millsap and AJ on the floor together.
Rofl.
This made me chuckle. +10000
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
stats on paper dont show same as watching Millsap vs the l.a. fake bakers in the playoffs and competing, scoring, blocking, hustling while boozer was getting blocked, and crying to the officials
fact is that Millsap was a backup and didnt get the no calls boozer got. starting at pf he will get less calls. with Big Al at center, I see Sap only getting better.
by UtonganKidInCali on Aug 5, 2010 8:41 AM MDT up reply actions
ROFL
This made me chuckle even harder after reading the above comment. +infinity.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
We have a new nickname for AK!
So whenever he gets a weak-side block we need to all go crazy
THE SNUGGY STRIKES AGAIN!
or
SNUGGY ATTACK!
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
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