The What Ifs of 2011

When I was a kid I was sure I was going to be a dual-sport superstar: baseball and basketball. It was then, as a misty-eyed 9-year-old with delusions of grandeur, I started making up fake baseball and basketball cards of myself. I would literally spend hours with a calculator in hand, making sure my FG% lined up with total field goal attempts and makes, making sure my slugging percentage was accurate to 4 decimal points.

It's a ridiculous pastime that's generated a ridiculous amount of mockery from friends. As if playing Mortal Kombat for 10-hours straight was a more worthy use of time. At least my hobby got me A's in math.

Anyway, I dabble in this kind of thing every time a new season approaches. It's kind of fun to predict what kind of team they may be. Of course I always predict the best. A lot of "what-if-everything-clicks-right" mixed with a very, very small dab of "reality."

The eerie thing is I'm occasionally right. Last year, I started playing around with a "what if the Jazz pick up the pace a bit, start AK and play him 36 minutes, KK finds his 3-point stroke again, etc." scenario. I sort-of predicted the Jazz from mid-January to the end of the year, including AK at 15 PPG (he was at 14.something after being reinserted in the lineup) and the Jazz over 110 PPG.

So, here goes my little exercise again: a statistical view of what the Jazz could be this year if they click, if major injuries don't happen, and if they all play according to a "reasonable" view of their best for the whole season. (Whether this is "reasonable", of course, is up to everyone to decide).

The Constants

There are only so many shots put up in a game. That's the major issue. They're not going to put up 110 shots + 55 free throws per game, and there's no way they'll have 8 guys averaging 20+ PPG.

So here's my limits: 85 field goal attempts and 30 free throw attempts per game. I got this figure by looking at how many shots they Jazz put up in their games from mid-January to the end of the season—when they actually started playing well again. The trend was the total shots increased. They started with a lot of mid-70's to low-80's, and they ended the season with occasional mid-90's, tons of mid to high-80's, a few low 80's and dipping under 80 only in extreme blowouts. And their free throw attempts were between 25-40 during this stretch.

So I unscientifically picked 85 field goal attempts and 30 free throws as a somewhat reasonable target.

Then there are other constants: The Jazz assist on about 65% of their field goals made. Their rebounds are usually in the low to mid-40's. etc.

So, now on some explanation of the players:

Al Jefferson

The big unknown. How much will his FG% increase with Deron and AK making passes, with the Flex offense giving him good looks on the block, etc? Well, here's what I say: his offense has been described as "like Kevin McHale." McHale had 8 seasons between 55% and 60%. As long as Bird was on the team, McHale shot at least 53%.

So, if everything clicks right, Al's peak is somewhere in that range. I decided to go for broke: 58%. Yeah, I'm smoking something, but the point of this is to play around with crazy dreams where everything goes right.

I'm also saying his blocks go up a bit with both Millsap and AK also patrolling the paint. It's called synergy.

AK and Millsap

The idea is this: if Al learns to recognize double teams, identify open cutters, and make good passes to those cutters then AK and Millsap will feast on a a half-dozen wide open dunks every game. Sometimes more. Plus if defenders focus on Al too much before the entry pass, Deron or a wing will find them for a really easy dunk, layup, quick 2-foot hook shot, etc.

Really, if everything with Al clicks right, the FG% of AK and Millsap will show dramatic increases. Like 3-6%. I have a feeling it could be even more with Millsap. Millsap has been about 53-54%. AK's best years are about 48-50%. So I put AK at 53% and Millsap at 59%. I also put in a dream of AK pulling off a three-point shooting display above 30%. He's done it before, I say in my chart he does it again. And Millsap finally gets over 70% for his free throws. It's my chart. I get to dream big, baby.

Deron

He's had stretches above 50%. So in my "reality" tempered dream world he shoots 50%. And he gets both a good year of three-point shooting (38%) and a good year with free throws (84%). And he leads the league in assists, finally silencing the talking heads about the absurd possibility that 3 > 8. I mean, don't we cover this stuff in 4th grade math?

CJ

Smart CJ shows up. (He shot 47% for the last two months last year. 35% on threes). Except I have dumb CJ shooting free throws (80-85% — smart CJ somehow clanged his way to 60% last March and April).

Raja

He's who he's been the past 6 years: 44% field goals, 85% free throws, 40% threes.

Gordon

Did you know his FG% on 2-pointers last year was 59%. Seriously, 59%! Holy crap! Had his three-point shooting been what it was his freshman year, his FG% would have been 54% last year.

I like Gordon, I was impressed with his play in the rookie league. I really liked his ball handling. I loved that he only took smart shots. I loved his passing. I loved his IQ. So do you know what I say? Surrounded with the talent on this team, Gordon keeps taking only ridiculously smart shots. His outside shooting from his freshman year returns. He gets a role reminiscent of rookie AK.

Ronnie

He's the same we know and love (or don't love, depending on the commenter). But this year he peaks. 41% field goals. 30% threes. I told you this was tempered with "reality."

Memo

His role is smaller, which means fewer shots, rebounds, etc. But he still shoots 48% and 38% from three. Slo-mo-Memo returns, so he doesn't shoot only 3's and foot-on-the-line-2's, so I'm giving him a FG% in the high of his typical range.

Fes

Hits a career high 50% from the free throw line. 56% field goals, because all he gets are dunks in a few games when Memo is out.

And that's the nine-man team (you get either Fes or Memo, not both). Players 10-13 are totally irrelevant because this is my fantasy, and in my fantasy nobody gets any significant injuries—except for Memo's achilles tear which even my fantasy world has to deal with.

Other stuff

Assists are distributed according to how much the players seem to collect them. In the flex, everybody passes, so everyone gets assists. Total assists don't indicate who is and who isn't the best passer (see AK vs. Boozer last year), it just reflects how they seem to spread out. Steals are similar. I'm staying in the range each player seems to get, but I'm also dreaming that they are at their best—that they get the top of their usual range. Same with rebounds.

Except for things like rebounds, steals, and blocks this is really a collection of the team's offensive ceiling. Defense is a whole different animal—mostly because I don't trust most defensive stats. They just don't reflect what I see during the games.

The charts:

The team without Memo:

via lh6.ggpht.com

The team with Memo:

via lh4.ggpht.com

So, there you are. If the Jazz play on the offensive side according to their topmost ceiling, we're looking at 117 PPG. Highest scoring team in the league. Crazy thing is I believe it's possible. Probable? No. But possible? Yes.

Is there any shooting percentage or shot distribution that is actually unfathomable? The most unrealistic to me is Gordon Hayward's — but his shooting percentages in college and his shot selection at summer league weren't fantasy. They really happened.  AK's also stands out, but I stand by what I say: if Al gets the passing-to-the-open-guy thing down, Millsap and AK will have an absurd amount of wide open dunks—which leads to the high shooting percentages.

Looking at this, it seems reasonable to say that if this team clicks, they'll be one of the most unstoppable offensive juggernauts in the history of the NBA. We're also looking at Three strong All-Star candidates. Four if AK's blocks and defensive acclaim return to levels of yore (which is a whole different post, looking at how his blocks and defense were affected by a strong defensive presence in the middle).

So they have a high ceiling. So what?

I've written before that you can tell how good a team is by looking at the what-if's ... by listening to what you say could go happen if everything goes right. Spurs? 6 straight championships. Big 3 Celtics? 3 straight championships. Shaqkobe Lakers? 6 Straight Championships. Nash's Suns? 3 straight championships.

Of course there are always things that don't pan out. Sometimes a few little bouts of bad luck can alter championships and dreams (sorry, Suns fans).

But last year we were saying "if everything goes right, maybe the Jazz can get a #2 seed and avoid the Lakers until the WC Finals."

Now we're saying "if everything goes right the Jazz will have one of the most epic scoring machines in the history of the NBA."

There's a world of difference between those two what-ifs.