Scouting the Western Conference
by ut2006 on Sep 8, 2010 9:41 PM MDT
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PrintThe NBA season kicks off the end of next month. After a hyped free agency period and a number of trades, the teams in the West have taken a significantly different look. Here's a team by team look at the competition in the West. No attempt is made to rank the teams. Note, the predicted win total has a margin of error +/- 3 games, unless otherwise noted.
NORTHWEST DIVISION
No review is needed of the roster moves made this summer. The questions for this team going into the season are a) How will Al Jefferson fit into the Jazz system? and b) Can Kirilenko stay healthy, and c) how will Okur bounce back from his injury? If any of those have a negative answer I see the Jazz at about 47 wins. If all three questions turn out well, I see a ceiling of 55 wins.
Playoffs? Very likely
Wins? 51
Will this be the same team after the recent Carmelo Anthony troubles? Will the head coach be on the bench all season? The team went south during the playoffs, and I this this is indicative of what is to come. Expect them to be competitive, but not to be in the race for the Western Championship.
Playoffs? Likely
Wins? 48
How would the Jazz do against them in a playoff series? Win in 5-6 games.
The team ended last year playing on fire, nearly beating the Lakers.Was their success last season a fluke? Did they catch the NBA by surprise? Or is this a legitimate threat? The truth lies somewhere in the middle. I predict the 2nd or 3rd seed, and with Durant they will always be in contention; their frontcourt concerns me.
Wins? 52
Playoffs? Very Likely
How would the Jazz do against them in a playoff series? This boils down to whether the Jazz have a tougher time stopping Durant, or the Thunder's frontcourt has a tougher time with Jefferson. Game 7 could go either way.
Portland Trailblazers
I don't buy that this team is a real threat yet. Injuries plague them, and I doubt their ability to beat the Jazz, Mavs, Thunder or Spurs in a playoff series, much less the Lakers. They look good on paper, but my gut says they aren't there yet--take that with a grain of salt.
Wins? 49
Playoffs? Very likely
How would the Jazz do in a playoffs series? Jazz in 6
This team is still in rebuilding mode. They gave away Al Jefferson for practically nothing. They have undue confidence in Darko Milicic. But, Kevin Love looks promising.
Wins? 27
Playoffs? Not likely
PACIFIC DIVISION
The Lakers are the defending champs, and likely to repeat. They made minor improvements over the offseason, but injuries could nag them. Certainly still the team to beat in the West.
Wins? 56
Playoffs? Almost certainly
How would the Jazz do in a playoffs series? Lakers in 6. I think Jefferson helps with the frontcourt, and a healthy AK helps, but this isn't the year we'll beat the Lakers.
Their season hinges on how the adjust to losing Stoudemire. HIs scoring and rebouding will be missed, but they did make some nice additions that could help. I see them making the playoffs as the 7th or 8th seed, but no making it back to the Western Conference Finals
Wins? 47
Playoffs? Likely
How would the Jazz do in a playoffs series? Jazz in 6. I don't think the Suns can handle Jefferson and Millsap without Stoudemire.
Their frontcourt is shaping up to be among the league's best in coming years with Cousins, Whiteside, Dalembert and Landry. They are young, have free cap space to spend in coming offseasons (and re-sign current talent), but they are still a good 2 seasons from being playoff contenders.
Wins? 33
Playoffs? Not Likely
David Lee and Ekpe Udoh are solid additions, but not enough to turn a 26 win team into an instant playoff contender. Monta Ellis could end up being a headache. Bright future. Emphasis on future.
Wins? 33
Playoffs? Not Likely
They've built solid talent, and have a strong starting 5. Blake Griffin could make a run for rookie of the year, as he maintained his eligibility as a rookie. Like the Kings and Warriors, their future holds better things, but lack of good management and coaching could sink this team.
Wins? 35
Playoffs? Not likely
SOUTHWEST DIVISION
Tim Duncan is aging and Tiago Splitter is only a rookie. But the team is well run and well coached. Expect similar things as last season. Solid season with a second round exit.
Wins? 48
Playoffs? Very Likely
How would the Jazz do in a playoffs series? Last season they finally burst the bad streak against the Spurs. Jazz win after a tough fought 6th game.
Jason Kidd's age could finally catch up to him, and their playoffs dropoff exposed some serious flaws. The Mavs are always a dangerous team, but repeating as the second seed will be tough to do.
Wins? 49
Playoffs? Very Likely
How would the Jazz do in a playoff series? The Jazz play well against the Mavs and D Will will be especially tough for them to deal with.
I don't know if it is Scola's impressive play at the FIBA tournament, or if I've been impressed by some well written pieces on their upcoming season, but I see the Rocket's as a Dark horse for a top 5 seed in the west. They have solid depth and a healthy Yao Ming could make all the difference. But will Yao be the same after his injury, and will he be healthy all season? Will Scola, Martin and Yao be able to co-exist and defer to each other? And was it really a good idea to give a 5 year $47 million dollar contract to 30 year old Luis Scola? Not many players are worth that money at age 35. Winning the division is a far possibility, but winning the West is very unlikely.
Wins? 47
Playoffs? Very likely
How would the Jazz do in a playoff series? The health of Yao Ming and AK will play a big part in this, but the Jazz could win in 6 games.
They have some good talent on their team, but will CP3 stay content all season? Can he stay healthy all season? The Hornets will be good, and possibly in contention for the 8th seed, but they can't contend with the upper crust of the West.
Wins? 42
Playoffs? Possible, not likely
How would the Jazz do in the playoff series? D Will always outperforms CP3 head to head, and the Jazz have played very well against the Hornets in recent season. Jazz in 5.
They overpaid for Rudy Gay. Mayo, Randolph and Gasol are valuable players, but the team lacks the depth and cohesiveness to really compete. Like the Hornets, they will contend for the 8th seed, but don't expect them to make it, or get out of the first round if they do.
Wins? 41
Playoffs? Possible, not likely
Overall, the teams of the West should all show improvement, and none will be automatic rollovers for any team. This Conference still belongs to the Lakers. The Thunder are a likely second, with the Jazz threatening, while the Texas teams battle for the 4-6 spots. Those 6 teams will be the ones contending for the West.
Your comments and suggestions for improvement are welcome.
All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.
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I'm a bit more bullish about the Jazz than you
I think the three questions you point out are exactly right (though I’d also add one about Hayward’s contributions), but I think you underestimate their ceiling. Here’s why:
1. Pre-25/pre-Jazz Big Al >> pre-25/pre-Jazz Boozer. Nobody mentions this nearly enough. With worse coaches, nobody to ever teach him what defense is, worse teammates, etc., Big Al has been far more impressive than Boozer was, looking at both similar ages and previous teams.
2. As far as defense goes, a front line of AK, Millsap, Al >> AK, Boozer, Memo. And that’s if Al plays defense as poorly as he has in the past — I have a hunch he’ll improve.
3. Last year the Jazz played quite well when Fes was in. So while Memo’s return is definitely a key to their ceiling, it’s not like the team will fall off a cliff before he’s back to the Memo of old.
4. I would be stunned to see the kind of chemistry issues we saw the first two months last season. Even if they don’t click immediately, I don’t think they’ll be sucking the life out of each other.
5. This particular lineup has the potential to be one of the all-time offensive juggernauts. They just complement each other so well. And if their defense is also improved (they were about 10th best last year) — wow.
6. Smart CJ gave a lot of signs that he’s here to stay. If so, we’re looking at one of the best 6th men in the league — he’s got athleticism, he’s got a smooth shot, he’s got moves, and now (we hope) he’s got some basketball IQ, too. And remember, as much as I lauded Wesley for his D against Melo and Kobe in the playoffs, CJ also did his share of defending them, and he was just as impressive.
7. Gordon Hayward’s basketball IQ appears to be off the charts. If it is that good, he’ll get playing time and contribute something along the lines of rookie AK/Millsap/Matthews. Add that to Smart CJ and healthy Memo, and that’s a bench with a lot of intelligence and firepower.
8. From last January to the end of the season, they spent almost the entire time in the top-5 of Hollinger’s automatica power rankings. His rankings are automatic and mathematically calculated according to how well they are playing right then. It’s important to remember they weren’t playing like a #5 seed most of the season, they were just so gunky the first two months that that’s how they ended the year.
9. The Jazz talent, from players 1-9, is stronger than almost any other team in the league. Do other teams have more talent at the top of their depth chart? Sure. Wade & LeBron is a more talented duo than Deron and Al, for example. But looking down the entire primary roster, the Jazz are very, very strong.
10. Raja’s bringing the nastiness back to the team. That alone could change everything.
Anyway, looking at all these factors, I think the Jazz ceiling is closer to 60 or so wins. If none of the big 3 questions pan out well, I see them about 50 wins again. 53-56 Seems likely if some things work out and others don’t. I think it would take some huge disasters—much bigger than the main questions you point out not panning out—to push them to 40-something wins.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I stand corrected
Those are some good points that you make. I have two concerns though: Health and improved competition. Teams like the Heat, Bulls, Warriors, and Kings had enough positive gains that they can’t be considered automatic wins like they (arguably) were last season.
If I were to re-do this post, I’d put the Jazz at 55 wins, with that +/- margin of error of three. I can’t quite imagine them pulling 60 wins in this league just yet (I think we’ll see that when/if Tomic comes, and with a solid free agent/draft addition), but lower than 52 is certainly unlikely, given the reasons Yucca Man just stated.
You don't stand corrected
Everyone sees things just a little different, that’s all.
I stand by what I said about your three main questions: Those are without a doubt the key questions for the season. Especially health. I love AK, I think he alone can turn the team into one of the top 1 or 2 teams in the league, but I worry incessantly about his health.
And you’re also right about improved competition. The West is simply brutal. I think that Minnesota is the only team that wouldn’t be contending for a playoff spot in the East.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I agree with Yucca man
There are many reasons why the Jazz could be the second best team in the west next season. Also, I think that with a healthy AK, we are definitely better than the thunder. While he’s probably not going to stop KD, he can certainly slow him and do a better job on him than CJ can. Remember how much Durant’s scoring and efficiency dropped in the playoffs vs Ron Artest and the Lakers. AK is no Artest, but he is one of the best defensive forwards in the league I think.
The Thunder, on the other hand, do not have a defender who can make a significant difference against Jefferson.
I think that if AK can stay healthy at the end of the season and Sloan gives him enough playing time, the Jazz are going to the WCF next year vs the Lakers. And I think the Jazz are more than capable of taking the Lakers to 7 games. Remember they swept us when we were playing fesenko in the starting lineup and didn’t have AK. With a full team, we would have won game 1 (we lost by 4) and game 3(lost by 1). Just the fact that we would have been able to tie the series if we had been healthy shows that next year, if we are healthy, we will give the Lakers a very tough series.
Let’s also remember that Millsap has shown an ability to play well vs bigger players, and that Al Jefferson has been slightly better than Boozer when playing the Lakers(after they got Pau Gasol). Now, with a much better team, he’ll likely be even better.
I really think the Jazz are the second best team in the west, and that they have a real chance of beating the Lakers and going to the finals. Of course, the Lakers improved too, so they still have the advantage, but the Jazz have the best chance they have ever had of beating them since they were given the gift of Pau Gasol.
Agree with you
I’m confident the Jazz can beat any team in the West in a 7 games series…except perhaps the Lakers. As I stated with the Thunder, it comes down to whether we have a harder time stopping Durant or they have a harder time stopping Jefferson. I think AK can handle (though not stop) Durant. I don’t think Green and Aldrich can stop Millsap and Jefferson.
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