You're Not Doing It Right, Other Guys
by Clintonite33 on Jan 8, 2011 3:43 PM MST
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PrintThis post is an extension of one I did for Shoot Hoops. I wanted to focus more on the Jazz end of things for the Utah fans. Plus, there's some things that weren't suitable to put in the original for a league-wide look; it would have come out too homerish for an international basketball blog like Shoot Hoops.
The focus is to try and determine where Jerry Sloan and the Jazz franchise stand in regards to player development. Sloan is all-too-often accused of not developing his young talent enough, or not doing it properly.
I can prove otherwise to the Sloan haters doubters.
In fact, I intend to pound those silly assertions right into ground, where they belong.
If you were too lazy to click on the link to the original article (which you should have done if for no other reason than to see the stellar likeness of the Mythbusters' Jamie Hyneman I did on a basketball) then allow me to fill you in.
The research was centered on the 2005 NBA draft wing players, which included oft-maligned-by-detractors C.J. Miles. Why Miles, aside from the obvious? His draft class is sufficiently experienced some five-plus years later and included numerous similar players to compare against giving us an ample sample size to work with when searching for valid results.
What we want in a wing player for these purposes is someone big enough to play the SF position, but not so big that they can't also play the SG position. So the specs are approximately: at least 6'5" tall, and under about 235-240 lbs.
That left us with 18 drafted players, one of which who never played in the league, so the remaining 17 appeared on the first chart. (Note: Each player's peak year in MPG and PPG, along with the last year they played in the league were charted)
We're left with only nine players of the original 18 still playing today, meaning right off the bat Miles has somehow had a staying power that 50% of his contemporaries lack just five seasons later, despite many of them getting far more minutes than he has either annually or in total.
Here are the nine players that made the cut, so to speak, and how they've fared by year in minutes played and points-per-game, as well as their career total minutes played through December of 2010. Click on the image if you can't see it well enough in the post.
As you can see Miles played the 2nd-least rookie minutes of the nine. Indeed, he played the 5th-least among all 17. But remember, half of those players aren't even in the league any more despite their "early development."
And notice how most of the players on the list peaked many, many games ago, only a couple-few years into their NBA careers. Sure, some of them may come back to have a stellar season here or there, but none with the exception of CJ Miles and maybe Martell Webster have headed consistently in the right direction. And Webster was on pace to follow the arcs of Danny Granger, Francisco Garcia, and Ryan Gomes before he went down for a year.
Ryan Gomes, who has played well over 11,000 NBA minutes might be the poster boy for why reps don't = development.
Take a closer at Miles' line and you'll find that he was brought along at a steady pace, earning more floor time from Sloan as he added maturity and more facets to his game. There was a reason why the Jazz's coaching staff insisted he come back despite the brass being on the verge of letting him go on more than one occasion.
Think about that for a minute. The guy that gets bashed for not playing CJ is the one responsible for ensuring that he's still a Jazz man today.
Sloan and the staff undeniably saw something in him. Something that made them want to put in the time to develop Miles the right way, rather than simply tossing him out there "to see what they got" like 90% of the league's other coaches do with their up-and-comers.
The fact that 60% of the 2006 draftees are no longer in the league bears this out even more, 47% of first-rounders and 80% of second-rounders. Ronnie Brewer is a first-round survivor of that draft, and Paul Millsap the second-round surviving member of the remaining 20% of Utah picks.
Full disclosure: The Jazz also took Dee Brown in that 2nd round, a player that's had the misfortune to be one those who ultimately could not make the cut in the NBA. Brown played more minutes his rookie season than Miles did that same year, his sophomore season
I often hear "Why can't the Jazz do what the Spurs and Gregg Popovich do and find good role players and play 'em?"
Well, I'm here to tell ya that for every Matt Bonner there's also a half dozen Malik Roses and Rasho Nesterovics. For every Gary Neal there's also several James Whites and Roger Masons.
After playing extremely limited minutes for a handful of NBA teams Roger mason Jr. landed on the Washington Wizards at the right time, just before Gilbert Arenas went down with the first of his knee injuries. This thrust Mason into the lineup in the 2007-08 season where the San Antonio Spurs noticed him, bringing him into their fold the following year where he'd play more than 30 minutes a game.
B 
via t2.gstatic.com
However, all those minutes didn't serve to make him a better player.
Mason isn't a guy with the kind of talent that made coaches go "Oooh! This guy is gonna be something special!" He's a role player that has had the fortune to fit into the right roles a couple of times, getting starter minutes for a couple years, making a couple of nice, timely, memorable shots, then fading away into obscurity once more.
That's what the Spurs do. They don't spend tons of time on guys for a few flashes of brilliance. They fill in holes. Then when those fillers don't pan out or have outlived their efficiency they move on to others. Rinse, lather, repeat.
Same story with the Jazz. Even though the grass may seem greener on the other side, the Jazz found their Gary Neal last year in Wesley Matthews, who just happened to also find himself in the right place at the right time due to injuries to key players. Only time will tell if Neal has staying power, but the odds are against him if he doesn't have that "it" factor that will make his coaches want to fight for him. It's entirely possible he's simply the next Roger Mason Jr. and not the next Wesley Matthews.
In Miles' case he does have that "it" factor, according to the way he's been brought up in the Utah franchise, making his progression as a player one that needs to play out in a more intelligent, patient manner to hone his skills, his mental edge, to prepare for him for that day where he's possibly celebrated as an extension of the brilliance of the brass that took him in that second round in 2005.
Had they thrown him out there to flounder his way through by trial and error the odds are he'd have long ago been thrown out with the Euro-trash or Chinese exports like so many others.
Instead, we find him now averaging career highs virtually across the board, and one of only three wings out of the 18 taken that have surpassed a certain threshold of efficiency in minutes-to-points produced.
Of that meager 17% of '05 wings that have crossed that threshold, CJ is one of only three currently headed in the right direction, and the only one out of all 18 that has posted a steady rise in development with no noticeable dips.
Had Miles been allowed to play the way he wanted long ago now, we might well be seeing only a streaky-shooting pine rider with bad habits instead of the well-rounded under-25 player with a vaulted ceiling that stands before us today.
It's difficult to debate the downside of Sloan's methods when we measure the fruits of his labors this way. After all, he does know a thing or two about what it takes to keep hanging around a certain somewhere for more than a season or two.
_____
Check this out! Clutch stats were released today by 82 Games.com and guess who's a Top 5 thief come crunch-time? Cool, huh?
All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.
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Good Point on Miles' Development
But his ceiling is still not very high, and he may be close to it right now.
They extracted way more out of CJ Miles than anyone could have expected in that draft (again, it bears repeating he was only the 20th-ranked high HIGH SCHOOL SENIOR in that draft, and a real threat to go undrafted), but it still might not be that great.
As for Rasho Nesterovic and Malik Rose, they were solid, productive players for San Antonio for many years. Certainly far better than most Jazz first rounders.
Miles' Ceiling
He may be approaching it in some games, but I think he could do it consistently. Think about it this way: He’s barely on the radar (Marc Stein’s) for 6th-man this year, but he could certainly get better, good enough to be a starter for most teams within a couple of years, in my opinion.
And the staff wouldn’t have insisted on keeping him so staunchly if they didn’t believe his ceiling to be far higher.
I honestly believe we’re only getting glimpses of what he can become. And he’s what, 23?
by Clintonite33 on Jan 8, 2011 11:11 AM MST up reply actions
Soon to be 24, which for a guy who has been in the league since 18,
is historically close to the time most high schoolers reach their ceiling in the pros. And dude, I like Miles, but there is no way he starts for most teams in the NBA. There is a reason he is backing up Raja, and Bell wouldn’t crack most starting line-ups now, as a 34 year old.
Didn't say he was a starter
Said his ceiling is such that he could be one in a couple more years work.
Part of the point of the piece is to point out that the reason he hasn’t peaked yet is because of the way he’s been brought along. You make my point for me when you say “most … reach their ceiling” by now, and not just high schoolers. Look at the graph again. Virtually everyone on it HAS peaked and are heading in the wrong direction at this point.
I totally disagree that Miles has peaked. He’s barely reaching the beginnings of his potential. He didn’t start playing defense until the last 3rd of last season (remember the friendly competition among mates for steals?). He didn’t start getting to the FT line until the end of last season. and he didn’t start rebounding until this year.
Add all that up and he’s like a whole new player this year, just unfolding his wings, pardon the pun, for the first time.
Another word on Rasho and Malik
Neither was all that productive for the Spurs, and both never had better years than while under Pop’s tutelage. What they did was fill their roles sufficiently. The point is, neither player increased their development, only filled that role they were given, which is what I was trying to convey; that Pop and Spurs simply plug players into their system most of the time.
Bonner and George Hill seem to actually have a future with Pop and have steadily increased their roles and numbers instead if simply being plugged in then tossed aside.
by Clintonite33 on Jan 8, 2011 12:33 PM MST up reply actions
this was very well-written
i remember when OKC signed CJ to the—what was at the time big money—offer sheet, I thought no way the Jazz match. Afterwards, it came out that every member of the coaching staff wanted CJ back, and it was for reasons that we fans couldn’t see.
even when ronnie brewer was traded, many of us were mad that the jazz hadn’t traded CJ instead seeing his as the less valuable piece. this isn’t to say that i’m 100% satisfied with the way the jazz develop every player, but—in general—i think the coaching staff has done a good job with, and are fair with players once they understand what’s expected of them.
Brewer may well be on his way to joining the masses that didn't make it in the NBA
He’s getting less and less time in Chicago. His ceiling was reached under Sloan, and the Jazz were brilliant to sell high on his stock
by Clintonite33 on Jan 8, 2011 11:13 AM MST up reply actions
Brewer just played 33 minutes in Chicago's last game
And is averaging 23 mpg for an Eastern contender. Brewer will have a home in the NBA as long as he can steal the ball with his fast hands, and still has his ridiculous athleticism.
He still can’t shoot worth a lick, and might be out of the NBA once he hits 30 and his knees start to crumble, but he will survive for at least 5 more seasons.
Thibs has also talked about benching him
More than once. And the fans aren’t too fond of him either. That jumper…
Interesting
I think I see why some of the chatter for RB going bench-side.
While he may be averaging 23 min a game, that’s a career low for him, outside of his rookie year, and when healthy, his TOV% is awfully high. That always draws a scowl from the coach.
Seriously, if you look at the data and facts, chances are Brewer has already peaked and is on his way out, slowly but surely.
Very Likely, But
again, with his steals and athleticism, he is going to draw a pay-check in the NBA for many seasons to come.
rec'd
One of the main reasons the Jazz are able to take a slow but steady approach to player development is that the entire coaching staff has tremendous job security. How many coaches in the league could go to their ownership and ask to pay a player like a borderline starter even though he is still a year or two away from being a contributor? How many coaches have such an effective and established system in place that they can keep talented players on the bench until those players learn how to conform themselves to the coaches expectations?
When a lot of teams talk about developing a player what they really mean is finding out whether he is any good. The Jazz are one of the few organizations that talks about developing a player in terms of actually making the player good. This is a much more painstaking process, but one that pays dividends in the long run. They have an excellent track record of taking second round and undrafted players and turning them into valuable NBA talents. Hopefully Hayward begins a trend of also learning how to develop first rounders more effectively.
EXCELLENT point about the job security
Thanks for the rec
by Clintonite33 on Jan 8, 2011 11:14 AM MST up reply actions
Bandwagon Hayward Fan
Cj has some competition now at the wing, now we’ll see if he can really fight, if he can’t beat out Hayward for minutes??
I was gonna do some stuff on Hayward for this too
But the sample sizes are too small still to really make it an honest look
Funny thing about Hayward. A comment at Shoot Hoops bashed me for his inclusion as his minutes are so low for his draft position, while in last night’s game thread Chile was THRILLED that he was in the 20% percentile for minutes played.
Guess it all depends on your perspective
by Clintonite33 on Jan 8, 2011 12:01 PM MST up reply actions
Even when Hayward
gets burned off the dribble, which doesn’t happen much, it’s not because of his athleticism, it’s because he was out of position, and over the season his positioning has improved>>>the thing I like about him most in comparison to CJ, everything he learns, he learns to apply consistently, he doesn’t leave parts of his game scattered across the various arenas…
I will say this about CJ’s development, this is the first year I’ve seen him come with his complete game and be consistent with it, if he could do it every game now…
Well, It's Mostly Technique and Strength
I should have clarified that, although it’s not just because Hayward is out of position, either.
A lot of opposing shooting guards muscle Hayward out of position very easily because of his weak body, (Joe Johnson destroyed him whenever Gordon was in the game against the Hawks) and thus, he becomes a defensive liability in those match-ups.
This will definitely improve in the next few seasons, and I think that in two years’ time, Hayward might be a quality defender at the NBA level.
Duh
Joe Johnson destroys ALOT of players he is a 6-7 240 pound shooting guard.
the only player on the jazz that could take him on defensively was AK. Raja got destroyed also.
You gota put things in perspective before you go bashing rooks.
I'm Not Bashing Anyone, and You obviously don't know Anything about Joe Johnson
Joe Johnson has been a major disappointment ever since he signed his max contract, and the Hawks have played better and won more games WITHOUT him in the line-up.
Joe Johnson is shooting a poor 42.1% FG and averaging well 18.6 ppg on 16.2 FGA…those are AWFUL numbers. Against the Jazz, however, he scored 28 points on an efficient 10-17 shooting, and when Hayward was guarding him, he torched the kid.
As for whether “criticism” or “reality” is “bashing”, I’m not a blatant homer like you seem to be, so I don’t consider them the same thing.
Hmm
Yah he has sucked since the playoffs but lately he has been picking it up. I am not blatantly holding the torch for Hayward but im just sayin
that a veteran defensive guard got burned on him too. Nobody on the jazz stopped him until Sloan put a much larger guy on Johnson. I think its hard enough to guard an perennial all star when your a vet much less a skinny rookie. If your going to pull stats you might as well pull not just Johnson Vs the Jazz but the games before and after to get a better idea.
@ NOH L 86 – 93 39min 8 – 16FG 3 – 6 3Pm 4 – 5FT 23 points
vs. CLE W 98 – 84 36 min 9 – 17 FG 3 – 6 3PM 2 – 2FT 23 Points
@ LAC W 107 – 98 40 Mmin 7 – 20 FG 1 – 4 3PM 14 – 17ft 29 Points
@ SAC W 108 – 102 30 Min 12 – 18FG 1 – 2 3PM 4 – 4Ft 29 Points
@ UTA W 110 – 87 32 Min 10 – 17 Fg 5 – 7 3Pm 3 – 4 Ft 28 Points
Vs. IND W 108 – 93 33 10 – 19FG 3 – 5 3PM 1 – 1 Ft 24 Points
Johnson has been on a tear recently
Here's the Thing
It’s true no one on the Jazz was stopping Joe Johnson, but Raja Bell is like 6’ 5", 200 pounds, and 34 years old. He doesn’t have the physical tools to even attempt guarding someone like Joe Johnson anymore.
But Gordon Hayward is 6’ 9" and has plenty of speed and athleticism. Unfortunately, the technique and physical strength is just not there…yet.
Hopefully, in a season or two, he should be able to contain a guy like Joe Johnson just fine. But not at the present moment.
Hayward is not 6'9"
He isn’t even 6’7"
http://www.slcdunk.com/2010/9/18/1696048/pre-draft-measurements-who-cheated
by FrillzGrillz on Jan 11, 2011 1:21 PM MST up reply actions
You Obviously Don't Know This, But
players’ listed heights are WITH shoes, not without them.
Kobe is listed as 6’6", but is really 6’ 4.5" without shoes. Oden is only 6’11, not 7’ 1" without shoes.
This is consistent for everyone in the NBA, Hayward included. And by the way, Raja Bell is not 6’ 5" either, but more like 6’ 3".
I won't make any assumptions about what you do or do not know, and would appreciate the same courtesy
He may be listed as 6’9", but he isn’t unless he wears shoes with 2.5" soles.
According to the link above he is 6’8" with shoes.
by FrillzGrillz on Jan 12, 2011 6:09 PM MST up reply actions
I "bashed" CJ last week
I still stand by it, that most of the production increase we are seeing from CJ comes from the fact that he is on the court for 5 minutes and he takes a lot of shots when he is the primary scorer on the floor. The same critique of Joe Johnson from IronPalm could be made of cj:
“Joe Johnson is shooting a poor 42.1% FG and averaging well 18.6 ppg on 16.2 FGA…those are AWFUL numbers”
CJ is shooting 41.2% and getting his 11.7 ppg on 10.6 shots per game. I will give Miles credit for getting to the line more, but he has only increased that rate to 2 free throws per game from 1.2 over his career.
I think Clintonite did interesting work here, but I think it only really tells us what we know, Sloan is playing CJ more and letting him take more shots. However, his 2pt and 3pt percentages are down from his career averages this season.
Joe Johnson does not deserve his max contract, and has been disappointing, but
I would never compare a legitimate superstar and perennial All-Star (the last four years in a row) to freaking CJ Miles, a guy who would be lucky to play 15-20 minutes on half the teams in this league.
Rose colored glasses?
Max contract or no, how is 42% terrible for joe johnson, but we should be happy with CJ’s 41%?
by FrillzGrillz on Jan 12, 2011 6:10 PM MST up reply actions
Read my post again
I’m saying that Joe Johnson is eons AHEAD of CJ Miles in terms of offensive impact, and I think you’re confusing me with Clint; I’m not big on Miles at all.
You imply he's a chucker
Go look at his Advanced stats across the board then come back and say that. Career low TOV%, career highs in DReb%, Blk%, Ast%, etc….. And by a country mile.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/milescj01.html
He’s earned every minute. He’s far more efficient out there than almost every other wing getting similar minutes. You guys are selling his advancement short, in a big way.
by Clintonite33 on Jan 11, 2011 5:38 PM MST up reply actions
Miles has certainly earned and deserves every minute
But it also says a lot about the Jazz’s weakness at that position.
Miles has poor court vision, and is still a very mediocre passer for a guard. I think his shot selection is decent (I disagree with FrillzGrillz that he is a pure chucker), it’s just that he is such a crazy streak guy.
When he is ice cold, he misses wide open, catch-and-shoot 10 footers. When he is hot, he swishes pull-up three-pointers off the dribble, with a defender draped all over him.
Let's look at his passing comparitively speaking
Miles’ per-36 assist 2.6, AST% 13.0
Granger, a player many would like on this team, which would further stunt Miles’ development by taking minutes from him, 2.5, AST% 12.5
And the other “threshold” player from the article, Webster, per-36 1.4, AST% 6.1
These represent the best remaining wing players from this draft (although an argument could be made for Cisco Garcia, but I stand by the results that indicate the former three are the only ones on the up at any noticeable rate), and Granger has been an all-star while Webster was the 6th pick and has always been considered an upper-ceiling potential type
And in fairness, CJ has mostly been a SF until this year, so he improvement he’s made in his passing game at AST/TO ratio in impressive thus far.
But, since he has made a switch to more backcourt time, let’s compare him to one more player after the same amount of career minutes, one that IS a SG and that many also want on the team, Andre Iguodala.
Iguodala had played about the same amount of minutes as CJ is at now by his 2nd season, so those are the numbers used here. Per-36 3.0, AST% 12.9
When looked at in comparison on a fair scale he’s doing just fine. Just fine indeed.
by Clintonite33 on Jan 12, 2011 12:07 AM MST up reply actions
The thing that I really like about CJ
is that when he’s in the lineup the Jazz consistently do well. It’s been posted several times that CJ leads the team in +/- for the season (I can’t find a reference right now), and the lineup of Deron, CJ, AK, Millsap, and Al is by far the team’s most effective one.
All that is in spite of CJ’s streakiness. Some games he hits everything. Some games he misses wide open 3’s by about 8-10 feet.
And yet the Jazz still play consistently better when he’s in.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I really like Raja
But I think that stat is as more of an indication of his weak play than it is proof of Miles’s effectiveness. Miles brings a level of quickness and athleticism that a 34 year old Bell doesn’t.
Good Statistical Analysis, Clint
That is certainly better than I expected.
However, I think role and system account for a great deal of it; look at the significantly reduced assist rates of any number of players since leaving Utah. Even Wes Matthews, who has improved tremendously and gets way more touches, still has a lower assist per 36 minute stat in Portland than he did last year.
Visually, to mere there is no question that Iguodala is a far superior passer.
Virually every Jazz player worth his salt
Improves their passing numbers under Sloan and his system. It’s indicative of the team concept. Certainly Miles would have gaudier shooting numbers had he ended up elsewhere. I, for one, am glad he didn’t
by Clintonite33 on Jan 12, 2011 3:02 PM MST up reply actions
Didn't say "chucker"
I am saying, he is only scoring more points because he is taking more shots.
I realize I painted myself in a corner here, and I do actually think that CJ is the best non-AK wing the Jazz have right now. However, that does not mean he is not a below average player in terms of helping the team with the minutes he is given. His position adjusted WP48 is 0.059, when 0.100 is average. And even if those stats you mentioned are up, his TS% and eFG% are down, which suggests that he is a less efficient scorer than he was last year.
Chalking it up to streakiness is a bit of a cop out, and when the streaks balance out to him being an inefficient scorer, he is not helping the Jazz’ chance of winning a championship anytime soon. It is easy to remember the games when he has a hot hand, but when he is not ’on" the Jazz suffer.
by FrillzGrillz on Jan 12, 2011 6:25 PM MST up reply actions
Who was the last best 6th-,man the Jazz had?
If you want to quantify it as a “he doesn’t help the Jazz win a championship,” then let’s at least put it in context. Who was the last 6th-man to help a team to championship? Manu? He played starter minutes though…
by Clintonite33 on Jan 13, 2011 8:19 AM MST up reply actions
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