My Reality on the state of the Jazz
by ForTheLove on Nov 29, 2011 1:29 AM MST
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This is a pretty good back and forth debate on twitter right now. I just figured it'd be a lot easier for me to express my views on the state of the franchise rather then keep tweeting about it. So here we go after the jump!
Lets be completely honest with ourselves. I want everyone to look deep down in their heart of hearts. Are you looking? Good. Can I see a raise of hands of people who honestly believe while looking at this roster that the Jazz are a championship team? If you've raised your hand, you're either slightly tipsy, a little high, or just to much of a Jazz fanatical to be honest with yourself.
This roster isn't winning a championship. It's not. It's going to win one next year either. At best, this team is a 4-5 seed and is probably gonna lose in the first round.
Are we satisfied with that?
I could be. I love going to the playoffs, Maybe we could get really hot and pull of a championship. I think all of us can look at the last 20 years of playoff births though and only see 2 years the Jazz really had a chance. We were close but well, Jordan.
So where are we if we aren't a championship team and most likely an 8th seed or missing the playoff kinda team?
Here is where we are.
We have 4 lotto picks. 2 of them are fine. They play most likely SG and SF and there is no logjam there to keep them from getting time to develop. We have a sauvy though overpaid and declining vet in Bell and a young vet in Miles who can be a great spark off the bench. We could maybe use one more wing but really we are ok in this area.
The other 2 are in quite the predicament. They are both #3 draft picks and both of them are big men. One is a little rusty and hasn't been in basketball for a few years, but he's got potential. The other has all the potential in the world and he's already got playing time under his belt. He can be good. Very good.
Only problem is. They are buried. Buried beneath underneath 35 million dollars worth of contracts. Almost half the Jazz's cap space. Buried beneath an injured heart driven Center who has given everything including his health to this team. Buried beneath a slightly undersized scoring Center. Buried beneath an undersized PF who plays with a ton of heart.
This is where alot of us have different opinions. Right here.
This is where I make my case.
A large explosion last Winter sent this team careening onto a different path. None of us saw it coming. It was a nuclear blast to the heart and soul of our beloved Jazz. Sloan retired. D-will was traded.
We find ourselves in a completely different direction then we were.
We are rebuilding. Not retooling. Not tinkering. Rebuilding.
Sentimentality and loyalty are great, but this is a business. The business is Championships. Sometimes you can't do the sentimental feel good things. Sometimes you have do the hard things and move on.
That's where we find ourselves.
I love Millsap. I do. Love him to death. He's everything I'd ever want in a player. Except A. he won't come of the bench and he doesn't deserve to. B. No matter how much heart you have it doesn't always make up for 2 inches or being a little quicker.
Millsap is an undersized PF. He's fantastic and finding ways to score and he can be a great help defender but lets face it. Guys like Griffin, Josh Smith, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki are going to own him. He'll put up a damn good fight and sometimes he will win a few but in a best of 7 series. He can't win 4 games against them. Those are the guys he has to be able to defend or outscore to help the Jazz win a Championship.
Lets also put to rest the he can play SF. Sure, he can pull a Miracle and Miami and go off from the 3 point line. Sure he could match up against some bigger SFs but we are kidding ourselves if we think he can defend the perimeter or is quick enough to hang with the elite SFs. Playing him at SF also kills Hayward's growth.
The truth is. None of this is a problem if he's willing to come off the bench. If he'd do that. Peachy. Keep him and we can all love his hustle and heart.
So that leads us to Jefferson. The guy is hard not to like. He's a great guy. Says the right things. Tries and works his butt off. He's just not very good at defense and at times can be a complete black hole on offense. Here is where people love to throw out stats. Say he was improving. Say he can get better. Say he's the primary scorer. We'll be awful without him. Here is the only stat that matters to me. 13 million.
He makes 13 million dollars. We are paying him 13 million dollars to be a stop gap until Favors and Kanter are ready. We are paying him 13 million dollars to get us a lower draft pick. To maybe get us in the playoffs and lose probably in the first round. We are paying him 13 million.
You know what I'd rather do. I'd rather have a horrible season but give Favors and Kanter a little more playing time. Have the develop some over the course of the season. I'd rather have a high draft pick because we had a horrible record.
I'd rather trade Jefferson (God bless his awesome personality) for draft picks in up coming drafts that could have us get even more talented players to pair with Burks, Hayward, Favors, Kanter, and Evans. I'd rather spend some of that 13 million dollars on say. A 5 million dollar center who will play well, who won't demand more minutes than the Jazz can give, and not interfere with Favors or Kanter's playing time.
I'd rather keep the left over 8 million dollars and pair that Memo's contract expiring and maybe grab a few good vets to fill out our roster.
I'd rather have an extremely young core of guys Burks, Hayward, Favors, Kanter, Evans, and hopefully a future high drafted PG to all grow together.
I'd rather have cap space to take on contracts that other teams are willing to dump and give us more picks so we can keep building through future drafts.
I want to be the Oklahoma City Thunder.
This is where we find ourselves. We have the potential to get a very young and very talented team if we are willing to go through a few rebuilding and developing years. We'll have the potential to keep rebuilding through the draft while hopefully staying under the Lux cap.
What I really don't want to see. Though it'll make us feel better right now. Is to put all our eggs in the retooling idea. The: Lets build around Jefferson, Millsap, and Harris. Lets let our extremely talented and brimming with potential rookies/sophs come off the bench for another 2-3 years while we continue to be 8th-7th seeds.
We had almost 20 years of magic with Stock and Malone. Why? Because we invested in them. We built around their potential, their youth, their hard work. Look at what we have right now. We have 4 very promising high talent high drafted players. 4 of them! With more likely to come over the next 1-2 drafts. That's extremely luck and fortunate/
Sure, we can keep what we have now and maybe we get lucky and we win one championship. That'd be great. I want to build a dynasty though. I want to be the Spurs of the last 12 years. I want to be what the Thunder have the potential to be. I want to relive the magic of Stockton and Malone. The loyalty, tradition, the sentimentality.
That's the reality I see. That's the future I see possible.
I'm sure many will disagree with me. That's fine. Lets keep the discussion civil though. We all the love Jazz. We all love the Jazz players. We all just want to win what we haven't won.
All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.
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To be completely frank:
It’s 1 am and I wrote this is a frenzied blur. Didn’t care about grammar, punctuation, or even being 100% coherent. I just wanted to paint a picture.
So forgive all the stupid writing stuff that makes me look like an uneducated buffoon. I’d rather let my crazy ideas do that.
Cheers!
-FTL
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
Good comments. I went with gradually trade both.
I think the jazz need time to see what Kanter can really do before they start removing pretty good big men from the roster. ( a nice luxury to have in this league. Other teams will be calling with offers! ) I am reeeally hoping that big Al has better D this year after he focused on conditioning for that over the summer.
Not too shabby for a 1am frenzied blur…
Trade Al and Keep Sap
If Al really is in the ‘best shape of his life’ and all I would wait a month or two just to increase his value. However, I do realize that this might not be possible if the right deal were to be gone by then.
Keep Millsap for the year and see if we can convince him to come off the bench AND sign a reasonable extension. Probably won’t happen though but his vet presence would definitely be good to have around the youngs for the year. . . then trade him next summer.
You practically read my mind on most everything.
(hmmm) 'Sentimentality and loyalty are great, but this is a business. The business is Championships. '
I actually don’t agree with that statement. While lots of fans think its all about a championship, I don’t think we’d have such a consistent solid fan base if we didn’t have a consistent solid team. If the team sucks for years, the LHM group could very well be losing money, and this IS a business. If the team sucks, the car dealerships look bad, and all that advertising during the game wont be worth much either. They are not just looking at the risk of having a bad team. Unlike the fans, they are looking at the risk of loosing hundreds of millions.
I could see them mix things up a lot with trades, but I think before they put the future of the franchise on the backs of these rookies, they will want to be assured of being at least a playoff team in the next year or two.
If they gut the roster to constantly play all the young guys, many of the true fans will want to watch every minute, but how many tickets can they sell to fans who already know the outcome of a game is a loss? They still remember back when the salt palace was pretty empty…….. they need wins and some hope to grow on more than just a shot at a championship.
I know I am in the minority around here, but I tend to think the other way.
I understand all of your points and I don’t completely disagree. Where I differ is that I know that only one team is going to win the title this year. I don’t think that means we should stop this team from building toward the future. Millsap and Jefferson are talked about often by Jazz fans as the old vets and we need to make way for the young guys. The truth is that Millsap and Jefferson are only a couple years older than Jeremy Evans. They aren’t that old. It isn’t unrealistic to think that both of them could be entering the best 5 year stretches of their career. I do understand the thinking that we need to move one of them, but if you move them for a wing, you are creating a log jam there. So the only options that make complete sense is to either get a PG or package one of them with Miles for a wing. So let’s look at the real possibilities there.
If we get a PG that has similar value to either Sap or Big Al we will have another PG on the same level as Harris and now one of them would need to go to the bench. If they have a bad attitude about that, we now have the same problem we have with Millsap going back to the bench. If we get a PG that is of lesser value and get a pick thrown in, we will most likely be dealing with a playoff team because most lottery teams would be wanting to stock pile draft picks, so we would be trading a player in their prime for a backup PG and a draft pick that will probably be in the 20s. That sounds like a deal the T’Wolves would make more than a deal the Jazz would make.
So it would make the most sense to trade one of our bigs plus a wing for another wing and a pick. So if say we could get a young wing with potential like George in Indy that would work, but then you have George, Hayward, and Burks on the wings Favors and Kanter and the left over Sap or Big Al upfront and Devin Harris at point. Now you will have maybe 3 picks in next years draft and the only position that you wouldn’t be cutting into young guys’ development would be to add a PG and the next draft is very weak with PGs, but has a lot of bigs and wings. So we draft more bigs and wings or maybe reach for a Point Guard. So we would either have a log jam and too many young players to fill the spots or we are putting a lot of faith in a PG that will be lucky to be as good as Earl Watson all for giving up one of your two best players in the process and now we are more like 3 or 4 years away from competing.
I know this team won’t win the title this year, but what if Kanter becomes as good as Coach Cal says? What if Favors becomes a young McDyess and Hayward grows into the right handed Manu that he looks like he could be? What if Burks becomes a second coming of the microwave off of the bench? I think we have enough players that could turn into special players that I don’t think we need to go with the Clippers or T’Wolves strategy and tank for a pick that might not fit into what we are building anyway. I think we should build around the young guys, but Keep Millsap and Jefferson, unless we get a deal that is loaded in our favor. But I don’t see what it hurts to roll with these guys right now, because if Kanter becomes a bust, Favors knees are made out of the same stuff as McDyess’ are and Gordon Hayward gets passive again and we have just traded our only valuable NBA players then we would have just doubled down on an unknown investment while thowing away a know commodity .
I still want to be clear that I want Favors on the floor and Kanter to play 15-20 mins a game, but I don’t think we need to throw away Millsap and Big Al just to get those guys mins. I think if we play this right we may be able to move them or Memo down the line and get greater value than moving them right now. Plus what if they come together? I still think this team could catch a few breaks and get to a 6th spot in the West. I would rather get these young guys a taste of the playoffs then another taste of the lottery. If they are stinking it up then trade Memo, Sap, Big Al, and Harris to playoff teams as the year is going on and do a complete rebuild. I don’t understand why we would do it now. Let’s see what we have and then evaluate.
Also the Jazz did show faith in both Stockton and Malone, but they didn’t get rid of Ricky Green and AD until Malone and Stockton had came into their own. They also kept around Big T, Mark Eaton, and Darrell Griffith instead of dumping them for future draft picks. I would rather follow that model than to blow the whole thing up on a model that could be the like what the Thunder have done, but could just as easily be what the Clippers and T’Wolves have done.
Agreed
Well put. While I enjoy constructing a team on NBALive2011 as much as the next guy, a proven commodity that likes it here in Utah is probably too valuable to trade for picks that we HOPE will want to stay here, play hard and contribute. I think most people agree that we aren’t a championship contender at the moment. However, if we can get get to a place where we compete for the division title and a 3-4 seed in the West with the current core, tweaking seems to make more sense than blowing it up. We need more than last years roller coaster season to evaluate that, in my opinion.
Do you realize that to get a 3-4 seed
The Jazz will have to have a bigger year-to-year improvement than has ever happened in the history of the NBA?
(at least without a major roster overhaul)
Going from 23 wins to 55-56 doesn’t happen unless you draft Larry Bird or have some other major personnel change.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Good point as well
That’s a good point, Yucca. However, last year was probably a bit more turbulent than most years (Sloan retiring, new center at the start of the season, losing Dwill, etc.). I think that announcing that the Jazz are a legit 23 win team based on last year is a bit premature. Hence the agreement to feel things out before blowing it all up. Who knows where this team is really? I don’t think really anyone knows.
However, I do agree with you on your post below that PT for Favors should be top priority.
I think it's important to remember they were a 23-win team post-trade
They were the 5th worst team in the league by both standard and advanced stats.
Yes, there was turmoil. Yes, there were some injuries (not nearly as bad as ’08-09, though). Yes, there was a coaching change. But historically, none of these things account for 30 more wins/losses. They can account for about 5-10.
Really, they can be about 10 wins better if things go right—barring a shocking, once-in-a-decade development.
One interesting thing is about the mid-year coaching change. When I reviewed the past 30 years there is absolutely no precedent for Ty’s situation. Most of the time, the team’s record improves after a mid-year coaching change—even if the new coach ultimately turns out to be lousy by year 2.
The Jazz were drastically worse. Every time a mid-year coaching change resulted in a worse record, the new coach was gone by the next year. There’s really no precedent for Ty.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
coaching change and losing the engine of the team.
harris just doesn’t compare to williams. that said, the rift between sloan and williams was a cancer on the team as sloan himself realized.
the williams trade resulted in a whole raft of new players coming in, and yes some are very talented. but you combine that with a new coach, and what do you really expect to happen?
have known corbin for a lot of years, and really felt bad for him. he was really in a no-win situation.
Going 55-11
this season should get you a 1 or 2 seed in the West. All the Jazz need to do is improve by 15-20 games to secure a 4 or 5 seed.
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
A couple of things:
For the old school Jazz, notice that the guys they kept played DIFFERENT roles AND positions than Stock and Malone. The two guys who played the same roles/positions were gone. AD was shipped off immediately after Malone established that he was good—but before Malone was a clear superstar. Really, 1 year of Malone putting up 15 points per game was enough for the team to ship of AD.
Second, Ricky Green was let go for Stockton. I can’t see any reason to think Stock’s development was helped by leaving him on the bench and limiting his minutes to 20-24 per game for his first four years. Sure the Jazz did it, and Stock turned out fine in the end, but did it really accomplish anything? Was Stockton eventually better for it? Or should we learn to dump the vet in the way as soon as it’s clear that the young guy will be better—since you’re going to have to get rid of the vet eventually anyway?
Anyway, the real lesson from the early Stockton and Malone days is that you DO need to get rid of vets to let the younger guys have the starring role—once those younger guys clearly establish that they will probably be at least as good, if not better.
Al and Sap are clearly and obviously in the way for Favors and Kanter having starting spots and primary roles. If Favors and Kanter are likely to be better (and I’d argue that Favors at least has already established this)—then Al and Sap HAVE to go at some point.
I’d say let’s start looking for a really good return now, since we know we’ll have to let them go eventually anyway.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I agree that Sap and Al need to go eventually
And I also realize both may not resign in 2 years if their roles are diminished between now and then- and why lose them for nothing?
But to me Kanter and even Favors are too big of unknowns. I am a loud supporter of Kanter. I think he’ll be a taller Luis Scola, love the kid’s game and attitude. But he could also be the next Araujo or Kofous. We hear comparisons to Horford, Zo, McDyess, even Howard for Favors- but what if he’s only Kurt Thomas or Leon Powe?
One more possibility: what if we jettison Al and/or Sap and suddenly down the road an opportunity to get Westbrook, Curry or Tyreke (or someone similiar) comes up provided we part with Kanter. Suddenly, we’re left with Favors and Evans and an aging Okur as our depth chart. We go from feast to famine.
Big gambles in all this.
Right now, the unknown scares me. I’m teetering the line between not wanting to throw away good players for unknowns and wanting to get
somethingout of guys who may not be part of our future. No easy answers here.
by Stockton2Malone on Nov 29, 2011 12:43 PM MST up reply actions
This is exactly what my response would have been.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
Again I agree with what you call the real lesson.
I just want to make sure that Kanter and Favors are who we think they are before we blow it up. I just don’t see why having a lot of bigs when some are unknown is a bad thing. If we are going to have a log jam it might as well be at the most important positions.
As far as "they kept played DIFFERENT roles AND positions " I would agree with that only to an extent. But then why did we keep Big T? He was a 6’11" PF who could score. He adapted his game and ended up playing some SF and C to play with Malone, but his natural position was PF just like the Mailman and they made it work.
Bird played PF and McHale played PF and C and it worked out ok for the Celtics. They didn’t get rid of the Chief who was in his mid 20s. They made them work together. I think the Jazz can do that, even if it is playing Millsap and Favors as forwards at the same time.
Cause Big T
Wasn’t making the same kind of money that AD was.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
And Big T was NEVER the primary scorer
Or even the primary post scorer. Plus Big T was a reasonable size/quickness for SF’s at the time.
Are we going to put Al at SF so Kanter can be a center?
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
No, put Millsap at SF.
If Favors is needing the minutes now lets let Millsap play SF. Millsap is as quick as Harpring and he played the 3. I know he isn’t going to match up well against Durant, but really neither does CJ. But he could do ok against Richard Jefferson, Grant Hill, Marion, Wallace, etc. Plus he would be a bad matchup for small SFs that don’t want to go down low and fight for position. Plus our biggest weakness was rebounding and having 3 bigs could help there.
I never said Big T was a primary scorer. But he could fill it up. Look at what he did when Malone didn’t play.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198803140DEN.html
I'm fine with a Sap at SF experiment
I’m skeptical, but okay with giving it a shot — but that’s primarily because I think Hayward is a much better fit at SG than SF.
But here’s the problem still: let’s say the starting lineup is Al, Favors, Millsap, Hayward, and Devin. Last year 80% of all the shots, plays, etc. would end up going to Al, Millsap, and Devin. Will that change? I don’t think so.
The way to get Malone the shots he needed was to get rid of the guy who was getting all the shots before—even though that guy played a different position, it was still necessary. To get Favors and Hayward the kind of primary roles they deserve a shot at, I think the old primary scorers have to be gone—or else 80% of the shots will go to the same 3 guys.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I think shots will get worked out.
I think next year Hayward will shot about 10-12 shots a game. He isn’t a gunner and will never be. He did shoot about 11 shots a game over the final couple weeks and I think that will stay the same next year.
Over that same stretch Millsap took 13.3 shots a game. Al was 13.5 Shots per game. Favors shot 8.1 a game over that time and he went up in shots as the year went on.He went frrom 4.9 per game in NJ to 6.4 a game here and over those last few games had a game with 13 shots (season high) and a game with 10 (tied for his 3rd most during the year) Devin Harris averaged just under 12 shots a game for the Jazz which is well lower than the 15.2 that Deron averaged with us. I am fine with him taking that many shots. I would prefer slightly less, but his agressiveness is what makes him effective.
I think at the first of the year Al and Sap will shoot more than Favors and Hayward, but I think that Favors will get more and more attempts as he advances like he did last year as the year went on. I can never see Hayward shooting more than 15 shots a game, but that is ok. You want him to be agressive, but not force things. He takes good smart shots and he has a better feel for the game than any of the other guys on the Jazz. I trust his judgement.
My fear is that we will be unable see what Kanter and Favors can be
Because Millsap and Al are taking all the minutes.
I really can’t fathom playing Favors anything less than 32 minutes per game this year. I think he proved he deserves a shot a bigger role last year.
And I can’t see Favors getting more than 15-20 if Sap and Al are on the team (not to mention Memo, and Kanter too).
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I want Favors playing 30 mins also.
That is why Millsap has to play the 3 for us to keep things the same. I asked Brian T. Smith about this on Twitter and he said that he is both able and willing to play the 3.
So you basically
want to stunt Hayward’s and remove CJ’s 3 point threat by giving millsap minutes at the SF position because he might matchup well with maybe 5-8 starting SF’s in the NBA?
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
I don't want to stunt Hayward, he was better at the 2.
And CJ was one of the worst 3 point shooters in the game last year, he also was one of the worst shooters overall shooting just 40.7% from the floor. So I would be ok giving up mins of a 40% from the floor and 32% from 3 in favor or a guy who shot 53% from the floor and 39% from 3.
So then you are taking
minutes away from Burks who should be the primary 2 within the next 1-2 years.
CJ has scoring ability and instantly spreads the floor with his 3 point ability regardless of his inconsistent shooting abilities. He’s much more of a threat out their than Millsap and CJ plays pretty decent man defense.
I think the Millsap as a SF move is just people trying to clamor to keep him on the court. I thought it could possibly work against bigger back courts but it only allows teams to clog the paint on defense which essentially hurts Al’s post game.
I don’t want to see Millsap at SF for extended periods of time and I REALLY don’t want him taking minutes from Burks and Hayward.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
Also,
Saying Millsap is a better 3 point shooter because of small sample sizes is a dangerous road to go down.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
Ok, but CJ didn't have a small sample size and he was poor.
Millsap did take 352 shots outside of 16 feet and he hit 43% on those shots. Compare that to CJ shooting 33.5% from that same range. Just for reference league average from that range was 37.7% so CJ is 4% below league average from outside of 16 feet and Millsap is 6% above it. That is with a much bigger sample size.
I think one of the biggest misconceptions about CJ is that he is a good shooter. He is a streak shooter that shot below average and has declined in shooting for 3 straight years. His minutes need to go to Burks more than Millsap’s minutes.
I don't want to gut the team.
I think that’s a common misconception of trading Al or Sap or both. Is that we are gutting the team. That’s not it. It’s also not that I don’t like Al’s skill set.
Really it comes down to money. Al is paid too much for what he is on the team. Really just a stop gap until Favors and Kanter develop. He also only hurts our drafting position because I do honestly believe that Al can carry us to 3-5 more wins then we’d have without him.
Also, You don’t trade Memo. You keep him on the team because his contract expires in a year and that’s 10 million dollars we can use elsewhere.
The things I’m concerned with are:
A. Getting Burks, Hayward, Favors, and Kanter a decent amount of playing time without putting too much pressure on them.
B. Cap room. I want to be able to bring in specialty Vets that can be used to fill in the roster around the Youngins. Guys who compliment and make up for areas that they may struggle in.
C. High Draft picks. That’s why I don’t want a 6th seed and playoff experience. I want us to continue to have fairly high draft picks for the next 1-3 years. So we can package them and move up in drafts to grab position guys we need.
In my opinion we need to take a step or two back so we can get a running head start and seriously make a championship push.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
I don't think it is gutting the team to trade one of them if
We are getting someone of equal value or an unprotected lottery pick. It is gutting the team if both are traded though. That will be our best 3 players being traded within a year. That is gutting the team unless we get an All Star in return.
I know Al makes a lot but how overpaid is he really. If Big Al was a free agent this year I think he would come away with a deal right about where he currently is. Look at Boozer last year. The guy is older than Al and he is also smaller and more injury prone and he got $75Million on a deal that will take him into his mid 30s. Look at the numbers “experts” are throwing around for Gasol, Chandler, and Nene. If Big Al is able to continue the way he played after the all star break you could make the argument that he is actually underpaid. Now I don’t feel like Al is underpaid but he isn’t overpaid the way AK was for the last few years.
Now could that cap room be valuable to the team to go get another player? Yes. But we aren’t geting Dwight Howard or CP3 so at best we would end up with someone that is about as good as Al anyway. So I understand wanting to move Al to clear space, but right now the stop gap, as you call him, could be the guy to help Al and Kanter become solid pros and not the guy that cripples them. So if Al is putting up 23 and 12 and we feel the young guys are ready to take over, lets move Al then, not now.
To me A. and B. are both reasons to Keep Sap and Al for now. The young guys can get some PT, but don’t have the weight of the franchise on their shoulders. As for point B, Al is one of the best post guys in the NBA, so he could help Favors and Kanter learn good footwork and post moves. Millsap, is as good as there is at getting position on the weak side and both guys can rebound and score. Those sound to me like areas the young guys might struggle in.
C. Is the thinking that scares me. It worked for the Thunder, so people act like it is an easy way to get the team back into contention. If the next 2 draft classes were supposed to have Jordan, LeBron and Wade all coming out then maybe I would agree, but guess who picks in the lottery year after year? The Clippers, The T’Wolves, G-State, Toronto, Bobcats etc. Those teams have been in the lottery so much that they already have their plane tickets for next years lottery.
The T’Wolves did exactly what you are talking about. They tried to stock pile young players and add a few vet specialists to help their young guys in areas that they might struggle (Luke, Sessions, Darko and Brad Miller) They needed to have a PG for the future so they drafted Rubio, only for him to stay in Spain and hit 25% of his shots. They traded Foye and Miller to pick Johnny Flynn, because they needed a PG after the one they just picked stayed in Spain. They drafted Kevin Love and got rid of Big Al so Love could have room to grow. Then they put Darko next to him. They then went and got former lottery pick Beasley to play out of position at the 3 making it possivle that they could also play last years draft pick Wes Johnson out of position at the 2. But don’t worry they also added Anothony Randolph because they needed another athletic forward that can score if he has the ball in his hands. Now this year they draft Williams who is another guy who will need to be played out of position. They now have a lot of good value forwards a lottery PG and veterans to help the young guys. But don’t worry they traded Flynn for pennys on the dollar and now have their 20% shooting PG to take over the team. (Yes I know Rubio’s percentage dropped 5% in that paragraph)
I would rather not want to keep trying to suck looking for KD to come along and ending up with Love, 8SFs and a PG who can’t shoot.
When I say overpaid.
I don’t mean by NBA standards (though I think he is slightly overpaid in that regard.) He’s overpaid for what the Jazz are in need of. We just need a stop gap for until Kanter can develop. 13 million is way too much to pay for a stop gap. It’s way too much to pay someone to make the Jazz better when they really need to be worse this year.
Also I’m not saying the Jazz should keep sucking so they land a Wade or KD. I also don’t think the Jazz or any other organization are anywhere close to as awful of front office as the Wolves have been. They’ve totally bombed on their draft picks because they’ve gone about it in a stupid manner.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
I understand that thinking on Salary, and don't completely disagree with the logic.
As for the T’Wolves, you are right they didn’t do the best job building a team as much as they did in collecting young assets. But doesn’t it concern you a little that the T’Wolves, Clippers, Toronto, etc have used this strategy to build their teams. They aren’t considered the smartest franchises and this is there blueprint. Building a culture of losing is dangerous. And in a small market if you get a losing culture it is hard to bring in good players to help through FA, how many top FAs want to go to Toronto and Minny? So you are stuck building through the draft or overpaying boardline star free agents. Either way it is a slippery slope.
If we are just losing and getting high picks for the next 1- 3 years, then how long are current players going to be happy with that? Why would Hayward and Favors sign extensions when it is known to them that we aren’t really even trying to compete? Wouldn’t they get sick of losing and want to sign with a team that could make a run in the Playoffs?
Look around. If the Kings don’t turn it around soon, how long do you think Evans and Cousins are going to want to wait for more players to come help them? Wouldn’t they rather go help a team in the playoffs try to make the finals. Do you think Deron would even have signed the extension he did sign with the Jazz if they were losing 55 games a year? Do you think Kevin Love wants to stick around for the long haul with the T’Wolves and wait for them to put a roster together?
I guess I am just skeptical of this strategy because it doesn’t have the best track record of being successful. It reminds me of Tobias and Lindsey on Arrested Developement:
Tobias: You know, Lindsay, as a therapist, I have advised… a number of couples to explore an open relationship where the couple remains emotionally committed but free to explore extramarital encounters.
Lindsay: Well, did it work for those people?
Tobias: No, it never does. I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but… but it might work for us.
by BobbyD31 on Nov 30, 2011 10:19 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd for AD quote
You can never go wrong with them. :)
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I do see what you're saying, but I disagree ... shocking, eh?
How many teams have really dedicated themselves to purging the old and building with young talent? This is a different sort of thing than a team happening to make the lottery year-in and year-out.
This question really warrants some big-time research and a whole post. I think I’m going to do it.
But off-hand, I can think of two teams that have dedicated themselves to this kind of building in the past decade. They shipped off their old guys. They got rid of long-term contracts for expiring ones. They collected a ton of draft picks over a few years.
Then, once they had their talent they filled in the gaps with the vets that would work long-term.
These teams are the post-Jail Blazer Blazers and OKC. Sure, I can think of other teams that have been lottery teams a lot. But I can’t think of other teams that really dedicated themselves to this kind of team-building.
I think both teams were incredibly successful.
Blazers progress was cut short by injury, but the talent they acquired was pretty damn impressive—good enough to still be a playoff team once its star and leader was gone (the Jazz sure can’t say the same thing).
We can all see how much OKC has progressed in the past three years—and it’s staggering that with young players like Harden and Ibaka, there’s still possibility for further leaps for that team.
Like I said, this question really warrants a lot of research to see if memory is accurate in this case, but my gut tells me that most teams don’t really build the way Portland and OKC did—which is also what I’d love to see the Jazz do.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
The Blazers had more success than most, but they haven't
made it out of the first round of the playoffs. To me the team we have now could work hard and has a chance to do as well as Portland has done since their rebuilding. You realize Memphis who put together their team off of a solid PG from the draft, 2 Veteren defensive wings and a defensive big, and a low post scorer that Portland gave up on have won more playoff series than Portland. If they are one of the positives of using this model, I don’t see how that is any better than us trying to move ahead of NOLA and Denver and get into the Playoffs now.
I think you're conveniently ignoring Portland's injuries
And look at how Memphis built their team:
Rudy Gay: draft
Mike Conley: draft
Marc Gasol: young player with potential they traded their established vet for
OJ Mayo: draft
Sam Young: draft
Darrell Arthur: draft
That’s six of their eight guys playing 1500 minutes last year.
They added Randolph and Battier (the other two) AFTER finding most of their team via draft and trading for a young player with potential.
Memphis is a perfect example of what I think the Jazz ought to do. They’re really example three: Portland, OKC, and Memphis. Memphis gutted their team (trading their star for a young guy with potential), got a lot of draft picks in a short time, then found the right vets to work with them.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
They actually got Rudy Gay by trading Battier
but that still works within the framework of your argument. But I agree with you on the approach. We’re going have to get worse before we get better, IMO.
by Stockton2Malone on Nov 30, 2011 3:38 PM MST up reply actions
You were the one that said we can't talk about injuries for a reason
the Jazz came apart last season. But look at Portland, they were unlucky. That is a risk you take when you draft a player with bad knees in College (Roy) and a player that was injuried in his only year in college (Oden). That is exactly why having insurance if the young guys don’t work out is important.
You are also showing my point with Memphis. They don’t need alot ot those young guys they drafted. Rudy Gay was hurt and they played better without him, because that opened up PT for Tony Allen, who was a free agent that was far more valuable to that team than both Sam Young and OJ Mayo. They also couldn’t trust Sam Young and Mayo and with no Rudy Gay had to trade Thabeet (really that pick helped them) to get Battier. In fact they also tried to trade Mayo, but the deal to the Pacers for McBob and a pick was after the buzzer. So they have tried to trade half of their picks and didn’t even need Rudy Gay to make their playoff run. Sounds like they didn’t need to bottom out as long as they did.
Still my point is They tried to tank for years and stock pile picks, but it wasn’t until they went a different direction and got ZBo, Battier, and Tony Allen to come and help the young guys that the team made a run. (Gasol losing 30 lbs helped too.) I think we already have 3 vets that could help our team and everyone is trying to get rid of all of them, when in the long term if we end up like Memphis we will need to make a trade to bring Millsap back in 4 years because he is the missing link.
We can talk about injuries
If we do it realistically.
The Jazz lost more games to more important players in ’08-09 that they did last year. The difference between a healthy Jazz team and one hurt by injuries to its most important players was about 6-7 wins (comparing the 48 wins to what they won in 07-08 and 09-10).
Since injuries last year were not as bad, they CAN’T account for the extra 25 wins needed to be a playoff contender (basing the win numbers on an 82-game schedule again).
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
But in the end, the real point at which we disagree is assessing our current team.
You think they can make a playoff push led by Al and Millsap.
I will be stunned if they pull it off.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I think the Spurs count.
Sure they never had to “purge” their entire team but they most certainly have built a winning franchise over the last 12 years by drafting very very well and acquiring the right free Agents without throwing a ton of money trying to bring in superstars.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
Exactly. They didn't deal all their good players and rebuild around Duncan by sucking year after year to get
players to add in the draft. They were smart with their picks ( Parker, Manu, Hill, Blaire, etc.) and added vets to help, like Kerr and Robert Horry. But it all hinged on the fact that they didn’t dump an aging Robinson. They did creative things with that team, they even played Tim Duncan at SF.
My point is if they would have said we are full blown restart mode and gutted the team and got rid of Robinson, Elliott, Avery Johnson and the vets and tanked for a few years, to get players to put around Duncan how long would that have taken to rebuild that team? Would Duncan have been willing to stick with them through all that? He most likely would have left and went to Orlando to join Grant Hill. They also don’t attract winners like Kerr and Horry and the Spurs end up looking nothing like what they have ended up looking like if they follow the model of blow everything up and stock pile draft picks.
Spurs didn't have to gut
their team. They all retired or moved on. They also tanked to get Duncan. Also, Duncan was from the old NBA. The same block of marble that was cute from guys like Magic, Jordan, Stock, Malone, Robinson, etc, who didn’t just leave their teams to play on super franchises. Loyalty meant something. Completely different NBA than we have now.
When you say attract winners like Kerr and Horry, you mean they had the cap room to sign aging Vets that meshed well with their core of younger guys. IE. Duncan, Parker, Manu, etc.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
They didn't tank to get Duncan.
If they were planning on tanking then why did they rush Robinson back in the middle of the year for him to get hurt again. Robinson retired too young, because of those injuries.
Every team under the old CBA had cap room to sign guys like Kerr and Horry. My point is you never saw guys like that signing deals with the Clippers or Toronto. They were winners and they wanted to play for a winner.
The clippers have a
great young roster. They are building a really solid team.
Also Look at how the successful small market teams have been able to compete consistently. The Spurs being most prominent. THey’ve killed it during the Draft. They’ve kept those young guys for many years and managed the cap well enough that they can spend on non big name free agents who help complete the team without over paying too much or taking minutes away from Duncan, Manu, Parker, etc.
The Jazz during the Stock/Malone years also were able to do it fairly well. Bringing in young guys through the draft and staying competitive.
Oklahoma is now doing that too. The system works if you do it right.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
I love the Spurs system. I don't know if the OKC model works as well.
I think you are thinking they used the same system when they did things very different. They both have used their money well and drafted pretty well, though I think if OKC would have taken Curry instead of Mr. Beard face lookout for what they could have had. Anyway Seattle gutted everything and started completly over. The Spurs kept their vets and made Duncan the vocal point.
I agree with the way the Spurs did it. That is what I want the Jazz to do. If down the road they need to move some of the vets I am ok with that, but I don’t want to do that now. Let’s see what this group can do and add players as needed.
The difference here
is that you see Al as being Duncan.
I see Favors, Kanter, Burks, Hayward as being Duncan, Manu, and Parker.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
No I don't.
I see Al, Millsap, and Harris as the holdovers from before the Spurs got Duncan that didn’t get shipped out when they got him, like Robinson, Elliott, and Avery. I hope that Favors can become our Duncan. I have often said Gordon could be a right handed Manu. I think Burks will get into the lane as well as Parker.
If the Spurs would have gone with your idea, they would have shipped out Robinson for a young guy and a couple future picks. Elliott would have been gone for an expiring and a future draft pick. Avery Johnson would have been shipped out faster than you could say Fesenko for pennys on the dollar, because he was old. Then the Spurs don’t win the 1999 title . Duncan then would have gone to Orlando to join up with Grant Hill and the Spurs would look like Toronto.
excellent analysis.
robinson,elliot avery, and that defensive small forward whose name i always forget were essential holdovers to move into the duncan era.
jefferson i am very lukewarm on, but how anyone can assume that millsap can’t play the 3 is beyond me. he clearly has gotten better at every part of the game each year. he has added shooting range each year. he won’t ever have the quickness of durant but who will? frankly, assuming favors will be a better 4 is a huge and perhaps wrong assumption.
kanter is a total unknown, and assuming success there is just not realistic. from his turkish play, you can anticipate a bit.
Are you joking?
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
Not at all
We don’t have anyone near the caliber of Kevin Love; even if Rubio can’t shoot, he can still be Rondo-esque; Derrick Williams will be a stud; Beasley and Anthony Randolph have at least as much potential as Favors and Hayward; Webster, Ridnour and Johnson are solid; Malcolm Lee was a good pick up; and on top of that, I’d take Rick Adelman over Tyrone Corbin any day of the week.
Oh boy.
Kevin Love is great. Rubio is like Rondo, except he doesn’t defend anyone and Rondo is one of the best at defending. Derrick Williams could be a stud, but they will have to play him at SF and not his natural PF. Beasley and AR have tons of talent, but can they be on the floor together, plus both of them are a poor mans Derrick Williams, so you have triple redundancy. Johnson is good, but he is a SF also so now you have 4 guys that need to play SF. Webster is solid, put is a wing on a team that has a few of those as we have already discussed. Luke is good and should help Rubio come along, so I guess they have that.
On top of that they won 17 games last year after winning 15 the year before. Even the second half of last season with losing our coach of 20+ years, our best player, having only 3 rotation players from the year before, with a new PG learning to play with new teammates the Jazz were on pace to win more games than that.
I'm just not
even going to respond to this. It just makes me bewildered.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
If they trade away any of these two guys just to clear cap
for the future and a couple of draft picks I’ll be pissed. Why not trade them for another piece that can come in and make us a contender. So what if they are a 4-5 seed in the playoffs. Get in the playoffs, and see if they can make a run to the Finals.
The Jazz have one bad season (the Worst) and suddenly some fans want the Jazz to get lottery picks by trading away proven vets so they can get younger and build a Oklahoma Thunder type squad? Dont understand that line of thinking. Can you guarantee me that the guy they pick is going to be the next Durant? or the Next LBJ?
If the Jazz start down this road, it could be something that will turn this franchise upside down into something they cant recover from for many years.
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
By the way, FTL
You’re awesomely humble. I love that you called this MY Reality. Clearly admitting that this is just an opinion.
Me, I’d end up writing THE Reality, as if it was fact, because I’m a bit arrogant and self-centered.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Haha
Appreciated =)
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
i am under the opinion that one of them has to go
and that one is who ever we can get the best value for, their is just not enough minutes to go around. but i don’t think we have to get rid of both. they are young enough to be apart of our core.
My reasoning isn't age or skill set.
It’s A. Millsap doesn’t wanna come of the bench (Id love it if he would). Maybe that changes but I dunno if it will. Honestly I think he deserves to start somewhere. I respect him enough to let him go and give him the chance to be a starter somewhere else and get the recognition he deserves for his hard work.
B. Al is overpaid.
The honest answer here is Millsap is going to be alot more valuable to trade. He’s got a decent contract, starting experience, and he’s young. Al will be more difficult cause he’s overpaid. Millsap makes more sense to keep on the team if he’s willing to come off the bench but he’s also more valuable and easier to trade. It’s a difficult situation.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
I think we need to hold on to both of them
at least until the All Star break. While Kanter has played a few games against good competition in Europe over the summer, we still have yet to see him play in an actual NBA game. Trading away our two best players before we know what we have in Kanter just seems reckless. Ideally, the front office and Ty realize this too, so that Al, Sap, Favors, and Kanter would all be getting around the same minutes until they can decide whether going with Kanter for the future is a safe bet. I’m not worried about Favors, I’ve seen him play, and know he is an extremely hard worker. I have faith that he will become the player we need him to be. Kanter, as I said, needs to prove his worth before we hand over the reigns.
And hopefully Sap can be convinced to come off the bench if Favors legitimately beats him out for the starting job.
Utah>*
You only hold on to Al and Millsap
if you honestly think you can make a playoff push and win a championship. If you don’t think that. Then the Jazz need to have a bad season to get high draft picks. Being an average team does nothing for them. It only harms them.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
I agree, but at the same time
we have to get a good value back. We can’t dump them for dumpings sake. Finding the right deal may take some patience on our part.
by Stockton2Malone on Nov 30, 2011 3:40 PM MST up reply actions
Agree.
I’m not saying just dump them. I’m saying do it while their value is at least kinda high so you can get something decent in return for them.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
All I'm saying
is holding on until we have some assurance that Kanter can at least be AS good as them. He’s pretty much a total unknown at this point, and trading both before we know is rash.
Utah>*
I believe we should give Millsap a chance at the SF before looking for trade options for him.
I think we can all agree Hayward is a future starter at the SG or SF spot. So here is an important question: Who matches up better at the SF, Hayward or Millsap, against the contenders? Lets consider defensively:
Mavs (Marion): Millsap
Lakers (Artest or Odom): Millsap
Thunder (Durant): Hayward
Heat (James): Millsap
Chicago (Deng): Millsap
Boston (Pierce): Hayward
So arguable, Millsap is the better option defensively at the SF position to make a run in the playoffs.
Offensively I believe Millsap can play the SF just fine in the Jazz’s offense (assuming it to be similar with Corbin) as he has all the skills. What he might give up in foot-speed he gets back in offensive rebounding at the position (which does wear weaker opponents out).
Bottom line: Considering his intangibles (leadership, hard work) I think Millsap definitely needs to be given a shot at the SF position. It would not cut Hayward’s minutes (it would cut CJ’s).
by Frank5 on Nov 30, 2011 5:01 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Disagree.
Odom has a history of destroying Millsap when we match them up.
James can kill you from the outside just as much from the inside. Millsap has struggled guarding the perimeter.
Millsap really only matches up well against a few starting SFs in the NBA. Millsap is at his worse defensively at the SF.
Here are the net 48min numbers with him playing SF. He’s negative in almost every category.
eFG%= -.5, iFG= 15%, Reb= -2.4. Ast= 1.4, T/O= -2.4, Blk= -1.0, PF= -.5, Pts= -1.0, PER= -5.1
That’s a pretty bad PER. It also shows that he is a WORSE at rebounding at the SF position.
Burks should be the SG. Hayward should be the SF. Millsap should stay an undersized PF who comes off the bench for the Jazz if his attitude is right.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
Well if Odom Destroys Millsap then play Millsap at 3, because Artest doesn't destroy him.
The Odom argument is a perfect example of why we should play Sap at the 3. News flash Odom doesn’t play 3 for the Lakers. If you look at the Lakers SF minutes last year Odom played less than 1% of the minutes at SF. So if Odom is on the floor and he destroys Millsap, move Millsap to 3 and let him play against Artest.
As for matching up with LeBron, I think Millsap makes since there. Lebron’s biggest strength is going to the basket. If he has a guy that plays him physical when LeBron attackes and gives LeBron room when he is on the outside, LeBron most likely will start launching from the outside, which is what you want if you are playing against LeBron.
Also you were the one that told me not to use small sample sizes above, yet you don’t point out that Millsap only played 2% of the SF minutes last year. But if we are throwing small sample sizes out there then let’s throw this out there, in games that Millsap started at SF last year the Jazz were 2-1 and in games that had Favors, Sap, and Big Al together in the front court, the Jazz were 2-0, and those were the two games that Hayward played the best.
To take the small sample size one more step the Jazz were 3-2 in the final five games last season against playoff teams. So using the the same thinking you used with Millsap’s SF numbers that they would correctly reflect an entire season, this team should win 49 games over an 82 game season.
So it's okay to make the assumption
Millsap can play the SF from the small sample size but it’s not okay to say that Millsap cant play SF from the small sample size? Cause the assumption that Millsap can play the SF relies on that small sample size as well.
Regardless of whether Odom or Artest or Ariza or Kobe or whoever was playing the 3 for the Lakers Millsap is going to struggle against any SF’s who can A. shoot from the outside consistently because he has trouble guarding the perimeter and B. Anyone who is quicker than him.
He’s too slow to play the 3 consistently and too small to play the 4 consistently. He’s the definition of a tweener and is better suited coming off the bench.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
Also of those last 5 games.
Millsap started SF against a Denver team which rested all their starters. Miles and Hayward played wings the other final 4 games. Millsap started at SF against the Lakers the 7th to last game and we lost. Odom had a terrific game.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
We also need to know what kind of player Burks is before making any trade for a PG or wing player.
Unless we can move Millsap or Jefferson for a really good PG (i.e. Curry), it does not make sense to package trade one of them for someone like Collinson etc (which might be what Indiana would be offering). The reason for this is:
We don’t know if Burks is a PG, SG, or combo guard. I am in the camp that thinks Burks might have a shot at being a PG. I think we will see he has a great handle and passing instincts… even if he is primarily of scoring mentality. Part of this is because Hayward plays with almost a PG mentality. So that back court might work.
If we make a trade for a decent PG with one of our bigs, Burks won’t get the time behind two PGs for the Jazz to get an assessment whether he can play that position.
Burks is going to be a 2 guard IMO.
He’s probably going to be the best 2 guard we’ve had in a very long time (excluding Matthews). He’s a scorer. I don’t want a score first PG. I want a facilitator as a PG.
I’m also not big on trading for a PG unless it’s a star. I want to draft one in the next 1-2 years. Package up picks and trade up to get one.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
Excluding Matthews? I'd say INCLUDING Matthews
I love the potential Burks has
by Stockton2Malone on Nov 30, 2011 9:34 PM MST up reply actions
You underestimate how good Matthews was
Burks has a lot of potential, but I don’t see any way to say right now that he’s PROBABLY going to be better.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
So if we want to look at Burks at the PG, Hayward at the SG and Millsap at the SF
I’m not sure we really need to make a move right now.
I don’t think Okur can give us more that 15-20 / game in this race-track season, and Kanter probably the same. So that leave a lot of minutes for Favors (which should be the #1 goal for the Jazz this year), even with Al getting 30 min.
Of course that whole experiment could really not work, but I don’t know if that loses us much in the long run. Okur is off the books next year, and we could reassess things then.
Gonna say this again.
Millsap nets a negative 5.1 PER playing SF.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
I'll say this again too.
Too small of sample size and the Jazz won most games with him playing the 3 anyway.
Here is an imaginary play from the future:
- Burks runs a high pick with Kanter.
- Kanter pops out to the 3pt line (ala Okur) as Burks penetrates.
- Hayward spots up for a corner three.
- Millsap finds an open area somewhere (either for a J or slashing to the hoop),
- Favors is under the hoop ready for the alley-oop.
Might be a good future.
To me, it all comes down to this.
Post trade, the Jazz were the 5th worst team in the league. Both traditional metrics and advanced stats agree on this.
They were freaking DREADFUL.
Now let’s look at the excuses:
1. Injuries.
The Truth: the Jazz lost both fewer games total and fewer games from its most important players than the 08-09 team did. The injuries in 08-09 cost them 6-7 wins (comparing wins to the year prior and year after).
Conclusion: a healthy roster will not be all that much better than what we saw last year
2. Mid-year coaching change.
The Truth: in the past 30 years most teams who experience a mid-year coaching change actually have a better record AFTER the change than before the change. This is true even for teams whose new coaches ultimately proved incompetent and were fired within the second or third year. Indeed, about half of these teams perform worse in year two, when the coach has a full training camp, time to implement his system, etc., etc., etc.
Conclusion: giving Ty another year with this roster will not have that much of an impact.
3. New guys who don’t know the system.
The Truth: mid-year trades often help the teams immediately. Pau to the Lakers. Hornacek to the Jazz. Kidd to Dallas. Crash to Portland. The collection of decent players to Denver last year. If a trade is going to work out, you can tell that season. Teams don’t gel perfectly immediately, they reach their peak later, but the positive effect of the trade is immediate.
Conclusion: expecting the team to be significantly better this year (after becoming obviously MUCH worse after the trade) is a bit laughable. We would have seen improvement last year.
4. Turmoil.
The Truth: a team’s poisoned chemistry improves immediately after removing the problem player—and the team’s success also improves immediately. See Denver last year.
Conclusion: I don’t think Deron poisoned the chemistry (that’s a whole different post). I don’t think the struggles in the month pre-trade had much to do with chemistry/turmoil. I believe blaming turmoil is getting the whole thing backward: the team struggled because of little injuries to the team’s most important players (particularly Deron, AK, and Sap). These injuries weren’t enough to put them in the injured list, but it did affect their play. Since the Jazz had been winning by the skin of their teeth, since the roster had lost most of its depth from the previous year, and since the healthy guys (Al, CJ, Raja) didn’t have enough talent to step up, the team started losing. The losing came at the worst possible time (after losing two straight to Wiz and Nets, a six-game skid was all but guaranteed).
In short: lack of talent and depth led to losing, which led to frustration, which led to the turmoil. Sloan’s resignation and then trading Deron eliminated the most frustrated guys, but left the team with even less talent in its leading positions. The root problem actually became worsened.
Turmoil, I believe, had no effect on the losing. Lack of talent caused the losing, which then caused the turmoil.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
by Yucca Man on Nov 30, 2011 9:40 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
That was long
Anyway,
When I really look at the excuses honestly, when I really try to identify how much they caused the losing—I can’t see any reason to predict more than about 10 extra wins if everything goes right. That still puts them under .500. And that’s the best-case scenario.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
And sticking with the same guys
Hoping things will turn around with basically the same roster is hoping for a miraculous turnaround that is 100% unprecedented in the last 30 years of the NBA.
It ain’t’ happening.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
From a different way of looking at it:
The Jazz stunk last year because:
1. Lousy defense
2. Inefficient scoring
3. Excessive fouling
You aren’t going to win many games with these three issues.
The main offenders are:
1. Lousy defense: Al, Sap, Devin. Al and Sap were bad. Devin was simply horrible.
2. Inefficient scoring: Al, Devin, CJ. These guys account for almost 75% of the shots when they’re in.
3. Excessive fouling: Sap, Favors, CJ.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
SO SO this
=).
When we are on the same page Yucca it really makes me feel like I’m less crazy or maybe it’s just that I’m not alone in my craziness. haha
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
To me, it all comes down to this.
Post trade, the Jazz were the 5th worst team in the league, but in the last week with Millsap playing the 3, Hayward playing more, Favors and Al starting down low and Harris back from injury the Jazz beat playoff teams down the stretch.
1. Injuries.
Truth to me: ’08-’09 we were better equipped to handle having some of those missed games. We had Millsap coming off the bench and many have said we were a better team with him starting than Boozer.
I actually don’t think most injuries last year affected much with this team, but I also don’t think they gave the team a chance to gel with Harris. To me it is hard to see how Harris will do with this team, because he didn’t get much of a chance to gel with the players. So I am ok with not blaming injuries and agree on that point, but I also don’t think we can judge Harris right now and what the team will look like with Harris. Because the only time he was back with the guys that we have was the last week of the year and we did alright then.
Conclusion: A healthy Harris with a chance to learn the system and a healthy hammy would be better than what we had last year.
2. Mid-year coaching change.
"The Truth: in the past 30 years most teams who experience a mid-year coaching change actually have a better record AFTER the change than before the change."
The Truth to me: How many teams had a Hall of Fame head coach step down mid season though? The Truth to me is that fact is skewed because most teams with mid-year coaching changes are because the coach got canned and the team gave up on him and welcomes the new face, not because the coach stepped down. Plus if you look at the last couple weeks before Sloan left, the team wasn’t exactly playing well together. So Really Corbin was replacing a coach that had been there for 20+ years and stepped down by his own choice mid year. Show me another coach that took over that mid year and then has the best player traded a few games later that did better than the previous coach.
Conclusion: I think Ty will be better with more time on the job.
3. New guys who don’t know the system.
The Truth to me: mid-year trades often help the teams immediately if they are not trades for future picks, a player that gets injured, and a 19 year old rookie. None of the trades you mentioned were teams that traded their best player to acquire future assets. Plus your examples aren’t even true. Look at Kidd to Dallas, Dallas that year was 30-13 with Harris and finished the year 21-18 with Kidd. So they went from .700 basketball to barely over .500 basketball.
Conclusion: Your examples and scenario for why this trade won’t improve the team is laughable. You basically are saying Harris will never play better than he did last year and at 19 Favors has peaked and will never improve. Kanter will be a waste and the G-State pick will be a bust. This is by far the point that makes the least sense. It is also the one I don’t know if you even actually believe.
4. Turmoil.
The Truth to me: Deron wasn’t completely innocent. I know you treat Deron as if he were a saint, but let’s be serious he is moody and often not the funnest person on the team to be around. I agree with most of your points on this, and I don’t blame Deron for everything that went wrong, but I do think Deron did cause a little contention before the trade.
Conclusion: There was some turmoil before the trade. Turmoil didn’t cause all the problems but it poured gas on the fire that was caused by a number of things, and lack of talent and injuries were definitely part of it.
So here is the thing. You are saying why these reason in and of themselves don’t make a team bad, but if you put all of those into the same situation, it doesn’t look good. But I look at that last week beating the Lakers in a game they needed, beating the Hornets, and letting Hayward take over against the Nuggets to me showed that the team has the talent and if the come together they are going to be a lot better than you think.
I don't mean to treat Deron as a saint
I’ve called him out for being moody ever since I began writing at SLC Dunk. When he threw the ball at Hayward last year in Game 2, I threw a little tantrum.
He is one of my favorite players ever, and I know that probably taints my opinion.
But I still don’t believe either his moodiness or Sloan’s frustration were the root causes of the struggles.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I agree.
I thought you were saying Deron had nothing to do with it, which I don’t buy, but I don’t think he was the root cause of it it.
It's funny
We’ve hashed through our opposite views ever since last March. We both know what each other thinks and why.
I guess I’m just so pumped to discuss actual basketball again.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
My quick response:
1. Harris’s play was actually a major reason the Jazz weren’t very good. Inefficient scoring but high usage (highest on the team) and dreadful defense. I believe a healthy Harris is a bad thing for these reasons.
2. I also think Ty will get better and better. But that has a limited effect But there’s no precedent to say that the same coach with the same roster will suddenly be drastically better the second season after first being drastically worse.
3. Yes, I remembered the Kidd trade wrong. That’s what happens when I rant without looking stuff up :) I do think Favors will get drastically better—but I don’t think that will matter to the team’s record much if he has a secondary role. And I can’t imagine him having a primary role as long as Al, Sap, and Harris are here.
As for Harris—okay, maybe he’ll be better. But shouldn’t we have seen some sign after the trade? If he really can help the team, shouldn’t we have seen it? Shouldn’t the team have been better than 5th worst in the league? And it’s not like Devin was incapacitated. He played 17 games, 31 minutes per game, and had a 25% usage.
I do think he’ll fit better, but not nearly as much as is necessary to turn the team into a playoff contender. I can’t imagine that much improvement.
And I stand by what I say: Kanter and Favors will have limited playing time and limited effect on the outcome of games if Sap, Al, and Harris are all playing.
I honestly think Favors will be shoved into the AK role of the past five years: 1) on defense covering both his own guy and making up for defensive problems of everyone else (and it will be worse, since Devin was much worse defensively than Deron was). 2) on offense picking up the scraps left over when Devin, Sap, Al, and CJ take 90% of the shots and touches.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Devin is one of the fastest players in the league with the ball
When he’s healthy. He looked slow after he got injured post-trade, and he might have even been hampered before the trade. It’s like when Allen Iverson was injured. He’d still play the games, log lots of minutes, and have a high usage, but his effectiveness would be in the gutter, because his game’s all about quicks.
That said, I would definitely prefer a Chauncey who can run the team and shoot a little, than a Devin, right now for this Jazz team.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
3. I was in Dallas that year.
I remember that trade and the reaction very well. Guess what one of the big issues everyone had with that trade? They lost Devin’s D. Yes go back and look at his first few years in the league. Devin was great on D. Hollinger even called him a stopper. He then went to NJ and basically was asked to be the entire offense and so he starting playing D like Jimmer. Now with us, he was asked to force middle, which is opposite from every other team in the league and yes he didn’t lock in. My point is that he can defend. He just needs to mentally be there. His best years he was a bettter defender than Deron. He just has gotten lazy at that end of the floor. If he can lock back in on D I think you will be happy with him.
As for on O, he didn’t shoot well, but did hit 35.7% of 3s for us. I will take that from our PG. He also gets to the line a lot that gives him a TS% of 54.5. which puts him with Kyle Lowry, Jameer, Rose, Stucky, and above guys like Westbrook, Collison, Kidd, Miller, and Felton. (Yes Ronnie Price is dead last, thanks for asking.) So he wasn’t as poor on scoring eff. as you are making it sound.
He went from averaging 7.6 Assists in NJ to 5.4 with the Jazz.. He had 33 games last year with atleast 8 assists. Of those 33 games only 3 of those games were when he was playing for the Jazz. He also had 5 games with 13 or more assists and none of those were for the Jazz.. I think a lot of that is comfort level with the system. I expect his numbers to be back around 7 when he gets more comfortable with the O. I think you only saw a shadow of what he could be.
Also the last 4 games when he came back from injury his line looked like this:
19.5 Pts 6.25 asts 42.5% FG% 40% 3pt% 87% FT.
I think the assists will go up like I said, but he came back from an injury to a non-playoff team with 4 games left in the year. Most guys would have packed it in at that point. But he played well and was also locked in on D a little better in those games. He held Andre Miller to 1/9 shooting. Tony Parker did put up 13 and 7 against him, which is 4 points under his season average. CP3 had 15 and 5 against him, which is a bout 5 assists less than his average. The Denver game he was mainly matched up with JR Smith and held him to 14 on 41% shooting. So if he can continue where he left off the way we are hoping Hayward can, then he should be fine.
I'm hoping you're right
Because I don’t actually expect Devin to be traded any time soon.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Here are my thoughts:
Playing time issues
Raja Bell got way too many minutes for the quality of play he was providing. I would say shutting him down post-injury was a much bigger factor than almost anything else for why the Jazz were so much more competitive down the stretch last year. Corbin’s got to take a big chunk of blame there for playing Bell over Hayward for so long, and for continuing to try to play Hayward at the 3.
Lineup problems
Injuries caused a lot of weird lineups. I think the lineup down the stretch last year should have been Earl, Hayward, CJ, Millsap, Favors, with Al and Devin getting big minutes off the bench. For some reason, Corbin never really went with that lineup, even when it seemed fairly clear to me that Devin wasn’t playing that well (I think because of injury, but maybe it was something else), and that Millsap and Favors were the best frontcourt pairing.
- Those trades are looking at the wrong side of the equation. You need to look at how Memphis did after trading Pau away, how Philly did after trading away Hornacek, how Charlotte did after trading away Crash, etc. The Jazz were cutting losses, not trying to add a piece for a championship run.
Plus, as BobbyD31 mentioned below, the Kidd trade is the only one involving a point guard, and it didn’t go so well. I think starting point guard is the hardest position to trade for mid-season.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
Yeah, that 1 is supposed to be a 3.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
I just wanna say thanks
to everyone. Didn’t think this post would reach 70+ Comments. =). The input has been awesome.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
MonSTARZ forever!
Suns fan here!
I’m guessing around 60% of you according to the poll want to trade Millsap, but only half of that group want to trade him now.
I would love to have Milsap start PF on the Suns next to Gortat and Hill. What could we do to get him?
Check out this article from BSOTS. It will explain the trade.
My offer is a little different from that one, but the same point still applies.
Pietrus, Warrick, Lopez and the 2013 first round pick for Millsap and Bell. Lopez is healthy and could possibly return to his 2010 form (I hope). If not, that’s why I include the first round pick. Again, the article will explain more.
Don't trade Dudley!
I'm a huge Millsap fan, but I would understand if the Jazz traded him for a deal that made the team better in the long run.
The Suns don’t really have any pieces that make the Jazz better. If the Jazz wanted to save money, they could trade Millsap to Indiana today for a 2012 first round pick and salary cap space, I would venture. I don’t want any of those players listed. Just my opinion.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
Actually I like Warrick, but we really don't have use for him in our crowded front court.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
Neither do we
We could even drop him from the trade.
Lopez, Pietrus and our 2013 first round pick for Milsap and Bell. Saves you guys even more money for FA’s.
This deal doesn’t make you guys better. It’s the kind of deal you do if you’re rebuilding. You give us Milsap, we take Raja off your hands and we give you a 1st round pick and Lopez who is a 23 year old center with potential. Pietrus is there to replace Raja for one season. Afterwards, his contract is done and you guys have got some good cap space to go after some quality free agents next off-season.
Don't trade Dudley!
Did you know that the Suns called the Jazz last trade deadline and offered them Lopez and Pietrus for Millsap and the discussions didn't get very far?
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
Yes, but it was a three team deal with Chicago.
All we know is that Lopez and Pietrus were involved, we don’t if they were both being offered to Utah. For all we know, it could have been the Bulls that killed the deal.
Don't trade Dudley!
David J. Smith's interview with Chad Ford points out why I don't think the Jazz need to tank:
“One of the things he savvy at doing is trading players for future draft picks and ones that might pay off in the long-term down the road. A lot of people forget that the Deron Williams draft pick was not their pick. And that the Enes Kanter pick was not their pick. They did not get those high draft picks because they were terrible. They got those picks because of savvy trades. His ability to restock his team without going all the way into oblivion has been part of the success story for the Jazz.
I think losing breeds losing. I think the young players grow up in a toxic environment when they lose that much. They don’t really understand what it takes to win in the NBA. His young players have always been in an environment where they do understand what it takes to win. They may not be championship contenders every night, but they’re out there competing every night, thinking they have a chance at winning that basketball game."
Chad Ford said this bettter than I could, but this is the point I was trying to get at. Really the whole article is worth a read.
http://www.utahjazz360.com/davidjsmith/my-jazz-interview-with-chad-ford-part-two/
Completely agree with the culture of losing concept.
But I think you can lose often and still foster a culture of winning, depending on the mindsets of the players. Like the fact that the Jazz were horrendous after the Deron Williams’ trade doesn’t come across from the players or the front office. They genuinely think they will make the playoffs this year.
But there is this in the same Chad Ford article. "
That to me is a superstar. I’m not sure that those names are there. That’s not a criticism against O’Connor or anyone else. Those are just really hard to get. The Jazz had a really high draft pick in a draft that turned out to be a weak Draft. Had that Draft been this year, the Jazz would’ve probably walked away with a superstar player. Instead they got a really good player. And that’s just the reality of this Draft."
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
I got one for ya, Yucca
And it covers the precedent assertions fairly well. The 2003-04 to 2004-05 Suns.
• “Going from 23 wins to 55-56 doesn’t happen” — Suns went +33 in wins from 04 to 05. Sure, I realize they landed Steve Nash for the 04-05 campaign, but he wasn’t anything special then, having posted only 14.5 pts per-game and 8.8 dimes the season before in 78 games with Dallas. Nash’s 05 numbers aren’t particularly special or gaudy either, however, the huge turnaround was largely credited to him. I’ve always been of the opinion that John Stockton opened the door for Nash’s two MVPs.
• “When I reviewed the past 30 years there is absolutely no precedent for Ty’s situation. Most of the time, the team’s record improves after a mid-year coaching change” — Frank Johnson had gone 8-13 before a guy previously only an assistant, like Ty Corbin was, took over going 21-40. Mike D’Antoni would follow the tumultuous season with a 62-20 campaign in 05.
• “Hoping things will turn around with basically the same roster is hoping for a miraculous turnaround that is 100% unprecedented in the last 30 years of the NBA.” — The Suns 05 core was essentially the same as the core that ultimately made the monstrous turnaround the following year. In fact, on paper it was much worse talent-wise than the 03-04 roster.
Absolutes are a dangerous game, and like D’Antoni, the game can be changed occasionally. Who knows, maybe we’ll get lucky and see history repeat itself in even a modest amount. In any case, it would be unfair to blow it up without giving the guys that worked so hard for a shot that chance at least, in my opinion.
And hell, if it doesn’t pan out, KOC has shown us he won’t sit on a ticking time bomb forever. The Jazz brass don’t accept failure well, always striving and moving to improve, historically speaking. If things aren’t going as planned (read: hoped for) then things will shake themselves out pretty quickly —winning cures lots of things, but losing is unacceptable in any but the short term. We know this. We are the Jazz. We like to win.
by Clintonite33 on Dec 7, 2011 10:49 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Meant...
*Suns 04 core was essentially the same as…
by Clintonite33 on Dec 7, 2011 10:56 PM MST up reply actions
I'm flabbergasted by this.
Truly flabbergasted.
That’s like saying the Jazz had basically the same roster at the beginning and end of last season, just substitute Deron for Devin. Same difference, really.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Now, for a more analytical look.
Amare (the primary scorer) shot 47% in 04. He shot 56% in 05. He was 21 in 04. 22 in 05. This kind of leap in the third season for guys this young is typical. VERY different than hoping Al suddenly makes a similar leap in effectiveness after 8 seasons. Amare also played almost 30 more games in 05.
Marion went from 44% to 48%.
Joe Johnson went from 43% to 46% (age: 22-23)
The Suns improved for two primary reasons:
1: Two of their primary scorers made leaps in effectiveness that is typical for young, 23-and-under players.
2: They switched PG’s and got one of the best ever (not as good as Stockton, I know, but a hell of a lot better than Marbury)
Sorry, but changing the PG by adding an all-time great is a HUGE roster move. Look at the shooting percentages from 04 to 05. Nash had a huge effect (as did Amare and J.Johnson maturing).
Our current Jazz roster doesn’t really resemble the Suns’ roster. I don’t know how anyone can say it does.
Wait: here’s a way to make the Jazz roster resemble the Suns:
1 – Make Favors the primary scorer/post player
2 – Make Hayward the primary wing scorer
3 – Find a way to trade for James Harden and make him the SF (slightly older than Favors and Hayward)
4 – Let them struggle/improve for a couple more years
5 – The same year Hayward and Favors ought to make their huge leaps, jettison the old PG and add one of the best ever.
Then marvel at how the team radically improved with basically the same roster.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Where I take issue is with your perspective
Nash was not an all-timer coming into the 04-05 season. In fact, he was much in the same boat Devin Harris is now — coming off one of his worst statistical seasons and only a one-or-two-time All-Star.
If you consider for a moment that it’s October 2004, that you don’t know what the 04-05 Suns will do. In fact, when the same logic as is applied to this Jazz team is in these comments, and was, applied to the Suns coming into the 04-05 season, they should not have improved that much, as every analysis of the time I can find does.
Now, I’m not asserting that Devin Harris will join the ranks of the HOFer PGs, but what I am saying is that it’s a helluva lot easier to definitively tell the past than it is the future. When one changes the perspective to the proper context the precedents asserted are indeed met in regards to that Suns team.
by Clintonite33 on Dec 8, 2011 11:25 AM MST up reply actions
I'll reply more later
But Nash was NOT coming off his worst statistical season. He just shot less. His PER the year before was his third highest to that point. It was his usage that suddenly had dropped. But his assists were his highest yet to that point, his percentages were 47%, 42%, 92%.
And then you also had the rule change regarding hand-checking. There were signs that Nash’s presence would have a big effect. We can see better with hindsight. But to me the important thing is that the Jazz situation doesn’t actually resemble the Suns’ situation that much.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Wow, obstinate.
If anyone in Dallas had known Nash would flourish the next year, he never would have been traded. Mark Cuban has said pretty much stated that outright. There were very few indications at the time that Nash was not on a rapid downturn in his career.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
by JazzHype on Dec 8, 2011 3:20 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
He wasn't traded
He was a FA. Sure nobody imagined he’d be as good as he became, but he certainly wasn’t coming off a bad year.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
True, but technically he was an RFA, right?
Either way, I was wrong, my bad.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
More:
“After the 2003–04 season, Nash became a free agent. He attempted to negotiate a long-term contract with Cuban, who was paying Walker, Finley, Nowitzki and Jamison nearly $50 million in combined salaries that season. Cuban wanted to build his franchise around the younger Nowitzki and did not want to risk signing the 30-year-old Nash to a long-term deal, and offered Nash a four-year deal worth about $9 million annually, with a fifth year partially guaranteed.”
Had Cuban and Dallas known he was about to become an “all-time great” don’t you think he would offered more? I mean, it’s Mark Cuban, right? Has there ever been a player deal he couldn’t afford? Nash went back to Cuban and asked him to match Phoenix’s offer. Cuban refused.
You're right
I still think Phoenix knew Nash would make a difference. Probably not that big, but still significant.
But I guess to me isn’t that nobody knew ahead of time. It’s that looking back, the Jazz situation doesn’t really resemble the Phoenix one.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Once again, the reply as you go format bites me in the bum
Should have scrolled down a bit before replying.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
My bad. You said:
coming off one of his worst statistical seasons
Still not accurate, though.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
No I didn't
I said “not anything special” or “gaudy,” followed by what you quoted. Context, man, context!
Here's the facts
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nashst01.html
Statistically the worst season in 5 years.
Um?
Nash’s 2003-04 Stats:
PER: 3rd highest to that point
TS%: 3rd best to that point
eFG%: 4th best to that point
Rebound rate: Average to that point
Assist rate: Best ever to that point
Steals rate: 2nd lowest to that point
Turnover rate: 4th best to that point
Offensive Rating: Highest to that point
Defensive Rating: 3rd worst to that point
USAGE:lowest to that point
Minutes:lowest since 2000
Nash wasn’t worse, he was used less!
I’m looking at the exact same page you linked to.
I can’t believe I’m still arguing this, my point is pretty independent of whether Nash was or wasn’t a likely MVP when the Suns got him.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Now let's compare Nash's 2003-04 stats to the guys he replaced:
THE IMMORTAL DUO OF LEANDRO BARBOSA AND HOWARD EISLEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Barbosa: 8 lower on PER, .40 lower TS%, .10 higher eFG%, same rebound rate, 20% lower Assist rate (!), more steals, more turnovers, 20 lower ORating, 5 lower DRating, 1/6 Nash’s Win Shares, but same usage.
Eisley: 9 lower PER, .150 lower TS% (!), .120 lower eFG%, same rebound rate, 13% lower Assist Rate, Higher steals rate, slightly lower turnover rate, higher usage (!), 26 lower ORating, 1 lower DRating, 1/7 of Nash’s Win Shares.
But yeah, that Nash would have a positive effect on the team was shocking. /sarcasm font
That, my friend Clint, is called a MAJOR ROSTER CHANGE. That’s something the Jazz haven’t done.
So no—the Suns’ situation isn’t similar to the Jazz.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Last thing I hope to write about this
The Suns did start the year with Marbury. Marbury’s PER was lower than Nash’s (slightly). His TS% and eFG% were significantly lower—but his usage was higher. His assist rate was slightly better, as was his steals rate. Marbury earned more WS that year.
But here’s the crazy thing that makes me think that Marbury was perhaps an a problem for the team despite his stats: a) he was traded for Howard Eisley, and b) Marion, Joe Johnson, and Amare actually did BETTER once Marbury was gone, c) the team did ever so slightly better.
So Nash was obviously >>>>>> the combo of Eisley/Barbosa, who were > Marbury (as far as their effect on the team).
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
So let's admit it and go on:
Signing Nash was an obvious roster move even the most thick-headed fan in 2003-04 would expect to improve the Suns.
:)
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Flabbergasted?
Alrighty, then.
1. Good thing the Jazz are loaded with young fellas then.
2. Hindsight is 20/20.
1. Too bad the young guys are probably shoved into secondary roles.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Corbin has said he's having an open competition.
Theoretically that should mean that guys like Hayward and Burks get minutes over Bell and CJ and probably Favors and Millsap starting in the front court with Jefferson first off the bench at PF and Okur at C. Will that happen? Who knows?
I personally would love to see Kanter play in the D League for a good stretch of time this year. I just don’t see him getting enough burn to get into the flow of things unless someone else gets injured.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
Exactly
From the top down it’s been said all minutes are wide open to whomever earns them. Trust the pros.
by Clintonite33 on Dec 8, 2011 10:35 AM MST up reply actions
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