The Jazz by the Numbers

As I've followed the Jazz this year, I've been keeping my own stats for the first time.  I've been looking for that Holy Grail of stats - the one that if XYZ happens then the Jazz will win.  And every time I think I have that one stat figured out, the Jazz find an exception to the rule.  For instance, I found at the start of the year that the Jazz won every time they made more than 3 three point shots.  That rule lasted until the 11th game when they lost to the OKC Thunder 108 to 115 even though they made 6 three point shots.  The Jazz are now 30-24 in these games.

Another stat that had a chance for exaltation was turnovers.  I found that when the Jazz turned the ball over less than 10 times a game they won; however, that rule worked up until game 52, a home game against the OKC Thunder, where the Jazz lost 105 to 121, and only turned the ball over 6 times (As an aside, that happens to be the last game the Jazz turned the ball over less than 10 times this year; they are 10-1 in such games).  

I also happened to believe at the time that assists minus turnovers was a perfect stat to follow.  That rule stated that if the Jazz had a margin of 16 or more assists than turnovers, the Jazz were guaranteed to win.  This rule was also broken on the 52nd game against OKC, and then again against the Pistons in the 60th game where the Jazz lost 116 to 120.  The Jazz are now a combined 16-2 in such games.

Yes, I know this is ground breaking stuff.  Turn the ball over fewer times and make more assists and you win more (especially in the precision Jazz system).  Keep in mind I was looking for the point where when XYZ happens the Jazz win; so much of what I did was to see where the Jazz statistically did there best.  Take for instance turnovers.  The Jazz are 10-1 when they have less than 10 times a game.  However they are 6-2 when they turn the ball over 10 times a game, 16-20 when they turn it over from 11 to 15 times a game, and 5-16 when they turn it over 16 or more times a game.

From an assist stand point.  The Jazz are 19-8 when they have more than 25 assists, 14-17 when they have 20 to 25 assists, and 3-14 when they have fewer than 20 assists in a game.

What about assists minus turnovers?  The Jazz are 1-17 when this is less than 6, 6-12 when assists out pace turnovers from 6 to 9, 13-8 when the margin is 10 to 15, and 16-2 when it is 16 or more.

I've also found the shocking stat that when the Jazz score more points they win more games.  Yep, if the Jazz score less than 90 points they are only 1-14, when they score between 89 and 100 points they are 10-11, when they score between 99 and 110 points they are 15-12, but if they score more than 109 they are a combined 10-2 (the two losses were the 60th game against the Pistons and the 73rd game against the Hornets).

Yet another earth shattering statistic is that when the Jazz hold opponents to low point totals, the Jazz win more.  If the Jazz hold their opponent to less than 90 points, they are 10-1; if they hold them to 90 through 99 points, they are 14-9; from 100 to 109 they are 10-12; and if the opponent scores more than 109 points, the Jazz are a meager 2-17.

Now, there were some unexpected results too.  Take record against western conference foes with a .400 to .499 record.  The Jazz have almost the same record as it has against western conference foes with a .700 and better record; the Jazz are 1-6 and 1-7, respectively, against these teams.  For all those that believe the Jazz play up or down to their competition, there's your proof.

Another perplexing stat - the Jazz are 5-1 against eastern conference teams with a record of .400 to .499, but only 8-4 against sub .400 eastern conference teams.  However, the Jazz are 9-1 against western conference sub .400 teams.

The Jazz' results against the different tiers are below:

Western Conference-

<.400 = 9-1; >.399 & <.500 = 1-6; >.499  & <.600 = 5-8; >.599 & <.700 = 2-5; and >.699 = 1-7

Eastern Conference-

<.400 = 8-4; >.399 & <.500 = 5-1; >.499  & <.600 = 2-2; >.599 & <.700 = 3-3; and >.699 = 0-2


<.400 = 17-5; >.399 & <.500 = 6-7; >.499  & <.600 = 7-10; >.599 & <.700 = 5-8; and >.699 = 1-9

So that's the Jazz by the numbers; well, at least my numbers.

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.

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