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Do The Jazz Or The Cavaliers Have The Best Chance To Move Up In The NBA Draft? - The Downbeat - #499

   Sam Amick's mock draft from a couple of days ago has the Timberwolves taking Derrick Williams, but in his analysis he gives us this (emphasis mine)

It should surprise no one that Minnesota is entertaining offers for this pick. Williams is considered by most teams (including Minnesota) to be the best player available after Irving, but it's hardly a fantastic fit. Michael Beasley has a similar skill set, and forward Kevin Love and swingman Wesley Johnson don't appear to be going anywhere. One source says the Wolves have considered moving down a spot or two to take Enes Kanter while getting additional assets in a trade.

When it was reported that Minny may want to trade out of the 2 spot, it was apparently going to be for a veteran player and assets.  Moving down a spot or two though means a deal with the Jazz or the Cavaliers.  

If the Jazz decide Williams is their guy, then they might have the assets to make that deal.  As for the Cavaliers, that would be quite the haul to land the #1 and #2 picks in the draft.  They would take Williams as well.  

But for either of those to happen, Minnesota would have to be assured that Kanter would be available to them when they pick.  If they trade with the Jazz, that would guarantee it.  However, with a Cleveland trade, Utah still looms at #3 and could potentially take Kanter though they've been projected to take Brandon Knight.  

Does that give the Jazz any kind of advantage then?  Could they make the threat of taking Kanter in order to dissuade Minny from dealing with Cleveland?

Another interesting note from Amick's mock is his #12 selection, Jimmer Fredette,

This entry comes somewhat reluctantly, but a source who has spoken to the Jazz insists that they are seriously thinking about taking the BYU product this high. The departures of coach Jerry Sloan and Williams mean the business folks want a new addition about whom the fans can get excited. The basketball part would be challenging for new coach Tyrone Corbin, as the pressure to play Fredette even if he didn't always want to would be significant. Lithuanian big man Donatas Motiejunas is also a possibility with the second of Utah's two lottery picks.

While you can see the business side of it, Greg Miller has stated that they wouldn't take him for that purpose.  The overall improvement of the team is the greatest need.  While Jimmer could be that player, it won't be the main reason he's selected.  Amick also makes a great point about pressure to play Jimmer.  While I don't think Corbin would be affected much so as to affect rotations, it wouldn't be long before someone writes an article asking why isn't Jimmer played more?

Then again he could be the savior of Jazz basketball and lead us to no less than 10 championships.

  The Heat are the scariest team I've seen and LeBron is playing the most dominant basketball I've seen.  It doesn't take any keen analysis to tell you that though.

The games I've caught of them though make me wonder just how they plan on losing again.  When nobody else for Chicago could step up, LeBron was put on Rose in big moments and shut him down.  Rose is one of the fastest guys in the league and couldn't get around LeBron.  James could sag off of him a bit because he's long enough to still recover and challenge the shot.  

If Bosh keeps doing what he did in the previous series and Wade throws on his 2006 invincibility cloak, they are going to be next to impossible to beat. 

Dallas though has been playing as well as the Heat.  This is what you're supposed to get in the finals, the two best teams in the league.  I think we have that.

The key will be if the Dallas bench and their entire team plays well.  

If it's close down the stretch, do we see LeBron on Dirk?

The Heat are going to be too good for my liking for the next several years.  They're going to be the deserved favorites for years to come.  

  Remember Boozer's comment about the Heat having "two great players" that he made before the series? While Chris Bosh isn't on the level of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, they were referred to as the Big 3 for the entire year.  So whether Boozer's comments were intentional or ignorant, they seemed to be a jab at Bosh.

However, Bosh owned Boozer in the series and M Haub Points out their respective stats,

Boozer_medium]

Maybe Bosh had that quote up in his locker?

Nobody expected a defensive dual between the two.  On the contrary.  Both should have had big games against each other.  When Boozer's offense doesn't show up, what's left?  He still rebounded well but he's supposed to be the #2 option behind Derrick Rose and the Bulls didn't get that.

It got to the point where Thibodeau had to constantly swap Boozer in and out for Taj Gibson down the stretch of close games for defense and then hope for dead balls so that he could get the right player in for that possession.  It wasn't unprecedented; Thibs has sat him in the fourth before.

At this point though, despite Boozer's claim to the contrary, he's not going to become a good or even passable defender.  His his offense isn't going to be at an All-star level, then that contract could sink the Bulls.

  Worlds colliding today in XKCD,

Sports_medium

via imgs.xkcd.com


  That's it.  You now have my permission to leave for the long weekend.  Have a great and safe Memorial Day holiday for those in the States.  Those elsewhere are free to adopt the holiday as well and go.

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Heat

The only hope against the Heat winning the next 5 years is where Dwight Howard decides to play. LA, Chicago, OKC or New Jersey all have assets to acquire him and still challenge.

by jusorenson on May 27, 2011 9:20 AM MDT via mobile reply actions  

Howard to NJ with DWill

I wouldn’t mind seeing it.

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by sabbi on May 27, 2011 9:46 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions  

I don't see what assets NJ has to make it happen though, other tahn Lopez and future picks

And the Magic will almost certainly want to dump Arenas as well. I don’t see how they can make it happen via trade

by Jeffersap on May 27, 2011 10:33 AM MDT up reply actions  

It won't matter, if it becomes a Melo situation and Howard makes it known that NJ is his place, then they will have to trade him there.

A team won’t trade for him if they don’t know they can resign him. Except for Mark Cuban.

The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.

by clarkpojo on May 27, 2011 11:47 AM MDT up reply actions  

My $ is on

DWill and D Howard both playing in L.A. with Kobe…

by garthvader on May 27, 2011 5:58 PM MDT up reply actions  

I don’t think my tiny brain can process all the potential trade scenarios and us moving up or down. The bottom line for me is that I wouldn’t mind Williams on our team, but I’m not sold that he is the next Melo. If he doesn’t live up to expectations, then we basically have a second Milsap on our team. I wouldn’t mind Kanter, but i’m no sold on his desire to play in Utah. I actually like Brandon Knight more and more because I cant shake the feeling that he is going to be something special in 2-3 years.

by TurboJazz224 on May 27, 2011 9:27 AM MDT reply actions  

So you're saying you don't want to draft a guy who can bring you back

a good young center prospect, a very good young shooting guard, a good young point guard (#5 pick), and a good young small forward (#6 pick), as well as a first rounder and 2 second rounders, plus 3 mil cash?

I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.

by JazzHype on May 27, 2011 9:37 AM MDT up reply actions  

He had one good game. I thought the tournament showed he was super average. He made the agame winner against Princeton, but it was his only made basket.

This is Princeton we were talking about. Also, he never looked like the best player on his own team to me. Usually he looked like the 3rd or 4th best player. LIggins did the dirty work and Harrelson and Jones made just as big of an impact.

The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.

by clarkpojo on May 27, 2011 11:50 AM MDT up reply actions  

Knight def had a terrible tournament

But he was still clutch as hell. We have no clutch players on our team right now. Also, I think people aren’t appreciating how smart this kid is, and how that will relate to the court. I think with a year under his belt under Harris (and hopefully watson as well), he’ll understand our offense better than both of them, and with Hayward playing the two and being our second ball-handler and playmaker, the future of our backcourt looks to be very promising.

Utah>*

by Bebop on May 27, 2011 12:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

im a bit confused

I didnt watch the NCAA tournament. But I hear stuff like:
Knight had a terrible tournament or
Look at him, he almost single-handedly brought UK to the Final four and he had no help on his team unlike John Wall last year, so he is just as good, if not better than Wall
Which one is the truth?

by drakeramore on May 27, 2011 12:16 PM MDT up reply actions  

I know he is smart. He is going to blow away the Jazz with his interviews and IQ. But he needs more than that to be the Jazz draft pick.

You know who else is as smart and well spoken? Jimmer Fredette. Devin Harris. Earl Watson. He needs to be able to make the right passes. Physically make them. He needs to set hard screens. He needs to see plays before they happen. Like I have said all along, if the Jazz draft Knight, I will stand by the pick, because they will break down everything about his game and how it fits with the Jazz. I still believe that Chris Paul was the more talented prospect over Deron, but Deron was the better point guard for the Jazz. I think that will turn out to be true with Brandon Knight. No matter how smart he is, he is light and not as long and tall as advertised.

The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.

by clarkpojo on May 27, 2011 1:30 PM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

I have this feeling also

And I’m only basing this off of the Calipari factor. He does turn out some good PG’s into the league. My best case scenario for him is a notch above Russel Westbrook. Westbrook came into the league having played 2 guard at UCLA, and Knight although it’s only one year did play it at Kentucky. He started off slow but got way better towards the end of the season. Worst case scenario is is he turns into another Harris which is still a good PG, but I have my doubts whether Harris can effectively run the Jazz offense

"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."

Norm Sloan

"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."

Weldon Drew

by EcERyda69 on May 27, 2011 11:40 AM MDT up reply actions  

just curious

what are you basing this judgment of Harris on?

Tweet with me @Mac_Diego

by Mac_Diego on May 27, 2011 11:47 AM MDT up reply actions  

I know he hasnt played that much games with us

but from what he did play, he’s so out of control when he drives. In the PnR he keeps the ball when he should of passed it. He too small to set a hard screen. I dont know I guess I’m just used to seeing Deron run our offense so precise that teams have a hard time defending it.

Maybe an offseason will help Harris get it down, either way a PG could be drafted this year and challenge Harris to be better

"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."

Norm Sloan

"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."

Weldon Drew

by EcERyda69 on May 27, 2011 11:57 AM MDT up reply actions  

The thing about Knight:

Go back and find a list of guards that were better as true freshmen.

He averaged more points and fewer turnovers than John Wall. True, he didn’t average as many assists as Wall, but Knight wasn’t blessed with the best big man in college basketball either. I’m pretty certain his assist numbers would be closer to Wall’s if Kanter would have played for UK.

Rose was 14.9 ppg, 4.5 rbs, 4.7 asts, 2.7 to
Evans was 17.1 ppg, 5.4 rbs, 3.9 asts, 3.6 to
Knight was 17.3 ppg, 4.0 rbs, 4.2 asts, 3.2 to

he’s probably not going to have the right-away impact that these guys had, but the fact that his freshman season is on par with some of the other great freshmen PGs, I think, is a promising sign.

Tweet with me @Mac_Diego

by Mac_Diego on May 27, 2011 12:26 PM MDT up reply actions  

I love me some Paul Millsap

But where in the world are you getting “a second Millsap”? Williams is quite different from Paul.

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by Mac_Diego on May 27, 2011 11:35 AM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

I just mean to say that he might not fit a defined role.

I realize that’s not always a problem, but sometime when you try to fit a square peg in a round hole things just don’t work out.

Even though they measure close to the same, I think Williams has a much better shot at playing the 3 than Milsap ever will. I just worry that if it doesn’t work out, and he cant play the 3, then we have another PF that’s too small to play PF.

by TurboJazz224 on May 27, 2011 1:43 PM MDT up reply actions  

Exactly.

If they win this year then it will basically validate their decision to join forces. That’s only going to lead to other star players teaming up in the same way because they will figure that’s the only way to win a championship.

We all know the Heat are going to win a couple titles with the current Miami Thrice, my only hope is that they don’t win it this year.

by TurboJazz224 on May 27, 2011 9:36 AM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

hasn't their run to the NBA finals

in their first season playing together already validated the decision to join forces? Winning the championship would only put a cherry on top. The decision has already been totally validated when they went 4-1 against the NBA’s best regular-season team.

Tweet with me @Mac_Diego

by Mac_Diego on May 27, 2011 11:37 AM MDT up reply actions  

I disagree

LeBron and Bosh were free agents, their decision to choose teams doesn’t need validation. It might not be classy, it might not ‘feel right,’ but in the end they don’t owe the world a justification for it.

LeBron’s plan to have executives fly to his house and stage a prime time TV show to announce his “Decision” will never be validated by any amount of championships. It was pure unvarnished narcissism. That is why LeBron was singled out for criticism in a free agency summer that also included moves of players like Bosh, Boozer, Soudemire, and others. You can (and probably should) critique the way those others handled the years leading to free agency, but their behavior pales in comparison.

by 1Jon on May 27, 2011 1:45 PM MDT up reply actions  

No, I don’t think it validates anything. Anything short of winning a ring will be an absolute failure for these guys and their season. If you don’t believe me, ask them. I get the feeling they would agree with me.

by TurboJazz224 on May 27, 2011 1:47 PM MDT up reply actions  

Oh I agree

With the failure bit, they have made championships their goal from day one.

I just felt compelled to point out that the part of last summer that really warrants some sort of redemption is not the sort of thing that can be washed out by championships.

Then again Kobe’s been pretty well whitewashed since Colorado happened, so maybe this will all be rewritten with enough success as well.

by 1Jon on May 27, 2011 1:51 PM MDT up reply actions  

Ha ha, good point.

Lets face it, the Heat are probably going to win 2-4 rings. All I can hope for is that it takes them two years to win their first ring. The big 2 1/2 are only going to get better, and the free agents are going to flock there after this season is over. The league is in for a lot of trouble unless the new CBA can somehow break the team up or limit their free agent spending.

by TurboJazz224 on May 27, 2011 1:55 PM MDT up reply actions  

Right.

Once teams get over that hump, it becomes easier for them to win the following year. If they lose in the Finals, it might be a struggle for them to win it all next year. If they win in the Finals now, they’ll be favorites to win it the next 2+ years, by a long shot.

by flibbidy on May 27, 2011 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions  

Oh, and on another note.

I hope someone will do a recap of the Greg Miller interview on KFAN yesterday, because I didn’t catch it all. From the parts that I heard, it really sounds like they are going to pick Jimmer.

Im paraphrasing here, but Greg basically said that they would never select a player just to put butts in the seats, and that they have always maintained the strategy to pick the BPA. Then he went on to say that if the talent level between players 10-15 was similar, then they “have to listen to the voice of the fans”. To me he was all but saying they are going to take Jimmer because the other players who will be available around him wont have much more of an upside than Jimmer will.

by TurboJazz224 on May 27, 2011 9:31 AM MDT reply actions  

Downbeat highlights

BBJ, talking about Jimmer says, “Then again he could be the savior of Jazz basketball and lead us to no less than 10 championships.”

I also enjoyed the hashtag: #LikeABooz

twitter: @UTESnJAZZ

by cmag on May 27, 2011 9:59 AM MDT reply actions  

1 - Not a fan of moving up to #2

Moving down makes more sense than moving up. Even if the Jazz wanted to move up to 2 to draft Williams, who/what do they trade? Can’t trade Big Al, obviously. Can’t trade Millsap—if the Wolves wanted a player like Millsap, might as well draft D-Will 2.0. Maybe Evans? Maybe Harris? Sign and trade CJ? Package Raja with another player? Don’t know if any of these get it done.

As far as draft assets go, if it means giving up the #12 pick or our GW pick next year, then definitely not. Unless we’re getting a good player in return, these are the pieces we need to help rebuild our team.

It’s better to hope for Kahn to be Kahn. And if they draft Williams, then so be it. There are other (and perhaps better) options.

by allen aoki on May 27, 2011 10:00 AM MDT reply actions   1 recs

It depends ...

Moving up from 3 to 2 may happen with very little, a future second rounder or Raja may be able to pull it off.

Moving up from 12 to 2 would require more assets. Harris, CJ, Raja, and Memo are all player they may be interested in, or even next years first rounder (the GS pick is protected so it doesn’t carry as much value as it would otherwise).

A trade of GS Pick + Harris + (Bell or CJ) could get us both Knight and Williams.

by Klepsydra on May 27, 2011 10:30 AM MDT up reply actions  

that would be cool

as it would relieve us of Harris’ big salary numbers and make us younger at all positions. But I doubt it that the timberwolves will like this trade (then again I dont know what they need). It would also mean that our front office doesnt believe in Harris as our longterm solution at PG. If they dont want him, then, by all means, they should try to package him in a similar deal because the sooner we trade him, the better. Of course we have to find his replacement probably before we give him away. At #3 Brandon Knight could be the answer. I dont know, Im conflicted about Harris. He seems like a good guy, I havent watched him a whole lot during his Mavs/Nets days so I dont know what to think about him. He got injured early with us so we couldnt see him go at it 100% + it wasnt easy for him – a new gameplan, new teammates, new coach, etc Some say he is declining which I find hard to believe, he is just 28 to be declining and as far as I know hasnt suffered any bad injuries.

by drakeramore on May 27, 2011 11:23 AM MDT up reply actions  

I would like to see Harris stick around for a few years. Whether we draft Knight, Walker, or Fredette I don’t think any of them will be ready to start their first year.

by Klepsydra on May 27, 2011 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions  

I see a more likely scenario of the Wolves

trading with someone further down in the draft and grabbing a veteran big man for #2 rather than taking a second rounder or someone not that great to move back one spot.

what i’m saying is that if I’m the Wolves, I’d rather trade the #2 for a proven veteran big than a role player and Enes Kanter. Know what I mean?

Tweet with me @Mac_Diego

by Mac_Diego on May 27, 2011 11:42 AM MDT up reply actions  

I would agree with that. The only way they would do it is if they really love Kanter. I think he will be a good player and will complement their existing front line well.

by Klepsydra on May 27, 2011 11:44 AM MDT up reply actions  

yeah. i just think that if they’re searching for vets, they’re going to want a proven vet rather than an average player and the unproven Kanter.

Tweet with me @Mac_Diego

by Mac_Diego on May 27, 2011 11:46 AM MDT up reply actions  

The more I think about it,

the more I like the idea of Jimmer at 12, unless we go PG at 3.

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by BigBenSportsGuy on May 27, 2011 10:30 AM MDT reply actions  

question

If next years golden state pick is in the top 7 do we get any compensation at all? I understand we forfeit it but if that happens do we get their pick for 2013 or something similar?

by Jazz and Ducks on May 27, 2011 11:22 AM MDT via mobile reply actions  

We get their 2013 pick, top 6 protected I think

Then if its top six in 2013, I’m pretty sure it turns to cash in 2014

Utah>*

by Bebop on May 27, 2011 11:29 AM MDT up reply actions  

It rolls over to 2013, and if it's top 6 that year...

It rolls over again to 2014… if it’s STILL top 6 in 2014, it turns into 2 second round picks (2014 and 2016).

by flibbidy on May 27, 2011 11:46 AM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks for clearing that up.

Hopefully next years draft lives up to expectations and is stacked, cuz I dont see Golden St dropping to the bottom 7, even with their terrible injury history and general crappiness

by Jazz and Ducks on May 27, 2011 2:00 PM MDT up reply actions  

I don't like moving up to get Williams

Because although he is clearly the #2 prospect, I actually think Kanter is a better fit with the Jazz next to Favors, and I think Favors is who you build pieces around. And I don’t think we could move up for simply a second round pick. Minn will try hard to use that pick to get a near All-Star vet.

by Frank5 on May 27, 2011 12:12 PM MDT reply actions  

If your building around Favors

you dont draft another big with Big Al, Memo and Sap already here and Possibly Fess being resigned. There isnt enough minutes to go around. If you want to build around Favors AND Hayward they need to get another wing and a PG to groom for the future.

"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."

Norm Sloan

"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."

Weldon Drew

by EcERyda69 on May 27, 2011 12:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

you do if Al's not in the long-term plan. Memo isn't, and Fes isn't.

And unless Al fixes his defense, he shouldn’t be in the long-term plan either.

Tweet with me @Mac_Diego

by Mac_Diego on May 27, 2011 12:38 PM MDT up reply actions  

This

Although you could always use Kanter as trade bait or trade Big Al, Sap or Memo.

And D-Will 2.0 will be a 3. Sure he may measure as a small 4 but I think that’ll make him a large 3. He can shoot, he’s athletic, he’s strong. And his athleticism could make up for any lack of speed he has. Imagine a front line of Big Al/Memo Favors/Sap Williams/AK. That’s a pretty big line if we don’t trade anyone.

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Let's go Cougs!

by sabbi on May 27, 2011 12:39 PM MDT up reply actions  

I agree with Draft Express on this one

With Williams’ skill level and outside shooting, he has more value as a 4 than as a 3.

Think of the way Harris plays. It’s kind of like a poor-man’s Derrick Rose. He gets in the lane as well as anyone and then either goes for a layup or dishes the ball. If your 4 can’t shoot, it allows the opposing 4 defender to clog the lane and make it harder on the driving PG (remember, this was the biggest problem in the LA series—Deron could get to the rim at will, but there was nobody to keep the big guys from sagging into the paint). If your 4 can drop Bombs like Williams can, the opposing 4 can’t cheat. And if the opposing 4 is playing Williams straight up, he’s got the skills to take most 4s off the dribble (not so with NBA wings).

If he’s a 3, sure, he’ll have a post up advantage over a lot of wings, but if we’ve already got Al and Favors in the game, why do we need more post presence? So he plays out on the wing, shoots the 3 at a respectable clip, and doesn’t have the speed to get by NBA wings. Tell me, where is his advantage over other NBA 3s?

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by Mac_Diego on May 27, 2011 12:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

Williams should be a stretch 4

Kind of like Antawn Jamison. I don’ think he can be a pure SF, and he won’t power his way the paint like a Randolph or a Griffin. Stretch 4 should be his niche.

by Jeffersap on May 27, 2011 1:02 PM MDT up reply actions  

I think he could

power his way into the paint. He was one of the two strongest at the combine with 19 reps. And a stretch 4 wouldn’t be bad either, we could use a big that can stretch the floor. (ie Memo when healthy) Maybe he can’t be a pure SF but he can play the SF position pretty well. And better than Milsap would be able to.

I think his biggest advantage over NBA 3s is his size and power. He could shoot over (most) of them or power his way past them. He may not have enough speed to be great on the defensive end but he’ll at least be serviceable, if not better.

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Follow me on Twitter @vanquishthefoe
Let's go Cougs!

by sabbi on May 27, 2011 1:14 PM MDT up reply actions  

I hate the idea of trading down, because of these numbers:

7: The number of Jazz players who will definitely be getting minutes next year. Favors, Hayward, Millsap, Jefferson, Harris, Raja, and CJ.

8: If we include Okur.

9: If we want Evans to get any burn at all.

10: If we resign AK. And we haven’t even considered Watson or Fess or Price.

So say we trade the #3 for, say the #6 and #18. I"m a little curious how everyone thinks we can have a 12 man rotation. I can’t happen. The Jazz have hit the point where they have a lot of average players. Getting more only helps if the FO is going to try to pull an Ainge, and I don’t think they are.

I would much rather us go the opposite way. Bundle the #12 will Al and try to get the 4th, 5th, or 6th pick. Get Kanter and Knight. Free up minutes for Favors.

by Frank5 on May 27, 2011 12:18 PM MDT reply actions  

Yes. Too many 'ok' players. Trades will come.

Sooner or later, there will be some trades! Memo will have an expiring contract, we have too many 4’s and too many rookies/sophomores. If we do happen to find a gem in the draft, then somebody else becomes expendable in the next year to two also.

I’d love to see us ‘pull an Ainge’ and trade for a stud, but I think it would be more likely that we trade for an experienced vet or two.

by Big_B on May 27, 2011 3:32 PM MDT reply actions  

hopefully minny will trade with us XD

2. this is why i would prefer Heat to win it all , rather than the mavs. Note I’m not rooting for them in any way but imagine the legacy of this Mavs team if they can take on this Big 3 and beat em to win it all. It’ll be on par with getting a championship on peaking Michael Jordan’s watch, which sadly, didnt happen for the Jazz :’(

Yes, I admit I will be envious of the Mavs fanbase if they can win it this season, and win it against Lbj and his buddies. the hype and acknowledgements from all over the media and most fans towards the Heat, it’ll only make Mavs’ legacy THAT much greater as time will pass on. I’m sorry but i’d rather watch some1 achieve what they’re capable of, rather than watching a bunch of underachievers.

by chiselmcsue on May 28, 2011 10:54 PM MDT reply actions  

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