The Dangers of Falling in love in the internet age (with an international prospect)

The trait of Biyombo that seems to indicate he may be successful in the NBA is his super-competitive attitude. Usually, super-competitive players make it in the NBA, if they have any physical size or talent at all. From reports I have read, Biyombo goes full bore all the time, in games and in practice, and really feels compelled to contribute. John Stockton and Karl Malone had that trait. Paul Millsap has that trait. Gordon Hayward reportedly has that trait. On the other hand, Kyrylo Fesenko (one of my favorite players, because of size, potential and personality—not because of production) does not seem to have that trait, and has not yet lived up to expectations of what he might be able to achieve.

The problem with Biyombo is that anytime a team drafts a player pretty much solely on “potential” that player has a much higher risk of being a bust in the NBA (had Perry Jones entered the draft this year, he would have had that type of risk associated with him, especially as a top 5 pick). However, if you could get Biyombo in this draft at #12, you would have about as good a chance that he might be successful as anyone else that will be available at #12—because this year’s draft is so weak. It wouldn’t surprise me, if this year’s draft turned out about the same as the 2000 draft (I think that is the draft I’m thinking of—namely, the draft wherein Kenyon Martin was the number 1 pick), where there were only a samll handful of players that made it in the NBA, other than as fringe players.

The Jazz may go big in this draft, if they feel that a big man has the best chance to be a contributing player in the NBA. The problem with picking a player based primarily on need is that you may get a player that has less chance to make it in the NBA than the proverbial “best player available.” A better basis for picking a player is his potential to fit into your team’s system, even if he has certain weaknesses (which all players have). Plus, you never know what will happen. Last year, it appeared obvious that the biggest need the Jazz had was for a power forward. Instead, the Jazz picked Gordan Hayward, a shooting guard/small forward, even though there were several pretty good power forwards still on the board (such as Patrick Patterson). However, because of trades that happened after the draft and through the course of the season, the Jazz are now very strong at power forward, but appear to be weak at small forward or shooting guard. If nothing else, if you take the best player available, even though that player does not fit a current need on your team, you may be able to trade that player for an existing NBA player at the position you need, who is much better than any player you could have taken in the draft at that position.

Another reason the Jazz may take a power forward in the draft is to get a backup player at a cheaper price than a current backup player. For example, if you believe that Derrick Favors is the power forward of the future for the Jazz (which I think we all believe), you may pick Markieff Morris in the draft to ultimately serve as a competent backup to Favors at a cheaper price than what you would be paying Paul Millsap (who is too undersized to be the long-term solution at power forward, despite all of his great virtues). Then you would be able to trade Paul Millsap to another team for a competent player who plays a position that need to upgrade on your team—rather than hoping that one of your draft picks would eventually work out at that position. If the Jazz drafted Markieff Morris in this draft, and both Favors and Morris developed enough that combined they could give you almost the same production as Millsap and Favors combined—you could then trade Millsap (and someone else to make the salaries match) to, say, Philadelphia for Andre Iguodala, who could give the Jazz an upgrade at the shooting guard/small forward position without really hurting the Jazz at the power forward position.