Utah Jazz Predraft Workouts: Wednesday, June 16, 2011
by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jun 16, 2011 11:58 AM MDT
in NBA - Draft & Lotto
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PrintNow that the riff-raff has passed (Does he mean all the excessive media? Does he mean other guards like Malcolm Lee and Kemba Walker? Does he mean something else? We’ll never know!), today the Jazz get a one on one workout with none other than Kentucky’s Brandon Knight. Is it bad that he didn’t want to go head to head against a bunch of other PGs in the draft? Probably; however, at the same time this shows us something. And it’s not necessarily a bad thing. After all, you don’t take a Ferrari out to go off-roading with a bunch of SUVs, right? Sometimes the Jazz have drafted a guy they haven’t worked out, but only interviewed. Other times they have drafted a guy they didn’t even interview. Here we’re still getting a work out and interview. And it’s an interview for the starting job on our team. (Don’t twist my words to say that "Amar thinks Brandon Knight is an NBA starter right now," because that’s not what I said) But out of all the guards the Jazz have brought in so far, Knight is the only guy who projects to be a starter on a Playoff team.
Sure, he’s not a complete player now, and he’ll probably start his career on the bench if he’s on our squad – it happened to John Stockton and Deron Williams too, by the way. But that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the ability to be that ‘new’ point guard that this NBA seems to champion. I’m talking about a guy who probably would have played shooting guard in a previous era who spends more time working on his jumper than on getting his other guys set up. The Dallas Mavericks seemed to do pretty okay with guys like Jason Terry and Jose Juan Barea in similar roles where they are good enough to get their own shot, despite not looking for others first. If there’s anything we can learn from those World Champion Dallas Mavericks it’s that a smaller guard who can make his own shot isn’t something you should easily pass up on. And if you can get two guys great at it, you’d be a fool to pass them both up.
Stats and more after the break….
Chicago Camp Measurements
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Brandon Knight was one of the kids who was too cool for school and showed up to the Chicago predraft camp, got measured, took all the metric tests, but didn’t participate in the shooting drills. Other Top 3 picks did the same. I think it’s silly; however, I understand the ‘play it safe’ rationale. One bad shooting day (law of averages) can hurt them more than a great shooting day could help them at their projected draft position. That said, I think it is safe to say that Knight is a pretty good shooter. (In the next section we see that his career college three point percentage is 37.7% -- Jimmer’s is 39.4%. Food for thought.)
On the other end of the spectrum we see that he is, flat out, the fastest guy we’ve brought in. He’s beyond Marshon Brooks speed. (And we all know that I love that guy) He’s not too shabby on the Lane Agility drill either – clocking in faster than the "speedy" Kemba Walker. Knight isn’t packing the guns that Jimmer is, but he did have one less bench rep than potential NBA power forward Markieff Morris.
As for the long and short, he is one of the tallest guards we’ve had in (taller than D-Will who played some SG for us), and he has a pretty good wingspan as well. He has a great reach though, and his max reach is only 6" less than Enes Kanter – whom some believe could be a great NBA center. Again using Markieff Morris as the litmus test for a potential lottery big, Knight’s max reach is 2" less. It Is 5" more than Kemba Walker, and more than a half sub from subway greater than Jimmer’s max reach.
Knight is clearly a great athlete. He’s long. He’s fast. Essentially he’s Hornacek’s size with Ronnie Price’s athletic ability.
Traditional Statistics
Obviously, these are cumulative college statistics. We all know that Das Jimmer averaged 28.9 ppg in his last year in college, but let’s not forget that he started off scoring only 7.0 ppg as a freshman. It averages out to a number somewhere in between. For a guy who plays a number of NCAA seasons you get more to see, but you also have a guy who is older and gets a lot more practices in and coaching in order to improve and better reach their potential. Not everyone gets that, because some of them are good enough to jump to the next level without spending so much time seasoning in college.
Too small? Click here for the full-sized version. (Opens in a new window!)
The first thing that really stands out here is that Knight is a one-and-done College Player (look at the games column). A lot of the guys who would have been one-and-done stayed in College this year because their people told them to (lockout, cba, etc). Knight has the talent to be a one-and-done and he is going to the NBA. He’s confident, and his stats speak for themselves. Unlike a guy like Kemba Walker or Jimmer Fredette who only got better and better as their college careers went on, a freshman Knight has similar college cumulative statistics. Just so I’m not being misunderstood – guys like Kemba and Jimmer didn’t kick butt in their first few years in NCAA Division I ball. They had awesome final two years. Those years bumped up their averages to what they are today, in this chart. Knight’s numbers are in the same ballpark – but as a freshman. If he played 3 years in the NCAA his final stats would clearly be better. He’s super young, and super talented. This is what makes him a Ferrari. This is why his people wouldn’t deign for him to workout with other PGs that are perceived to be way below him. He just said that he’d work out against Kyrie Irving – the potential top pick of the draft. He’s not shying away from competition, but he’s elitist enough to know the difference between apples and oranges.
What troubles me is his FG%, but he’s a few months removed from having a homeroom class, he’s only going to improve in the NBA, especially when in his first practice he’s no longer almost immediately the best player on the floor anymore. What I love is his three point percentage as a college freshman. Our bench missed a lot when people started to get injured. Having a guy like Knight come off the bench (Terry like) would really help the floor spacing. He’s not gun shy either, so he may develop into the type of guy all championship teams can lean on. If he comes to the Jazz with Jimmer too, well, looks like we have our Terry and J.J. Barea all in the same draft. They can learn the sets with one another and help each other with the ball handling duties. Coming off of a Kyrylo Fesenko (potentially) screen and driving and seeing Jimmer and Mehmet Okur spotting up behind the three point line would do wonders for Brandon Knight’s transition to the NBA. And do wonders for our team against other NBA benches as well.
I think Knight can be a lead guard in the changing NBA. I’d like to see him develop more of a floor game where he gets his guys involved. The Jazz coaches will demand that he does. So will all the veteran scorers on the team – lest they stop calling out screens so the 177 pound rookie gets creamed on picks. He’s not perfect, but this isn’t a perfect draft. Unless some teams mess up the first two picks, or there are some crazy trades on the horizon, I don’t see a better guy on the draft board for the Jazz.
He may not be the white knight that our team needs, but he’ll be our dark knight, the Knight we deserve. A guy confident enough and talented enough to be a starting point guard in the post-John Stockton and post-Deron Williams eras.
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I'm convinced.
Sign him up!
Although I’m not that enthusiastic about anyone in the projected top 4, I think Knight has the most upside and is the most likely to be a long-term, solid starter.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
"He may not be the white knight that our team needs, but he’ll be our dark knight, the Knight we deserve"
LOL
tweet me @kylekirkham11
or visit my oh so lonely blog.... www.jazzaholic-rehab.blogspot.com
I posted this in Mac Diego's post about Knight
But it’s relevant here, so I’m doing the same (and by the way, go check out Mac Diego’s post. It’s a great write-up about Knight’s trends—and it is pretty nice to see how much his assists and turnovers changed over the season and as the competition got tougher. Both improved by a lot).
Anyway, here’s my contribution:
Freshman Deron compared to freshman Knight: (Deron top, Knight bottom)
Min – FG% – FT% – 3P% – Ast – TO – Fouls
27 — 42.6 — 53.3 — 35.4 – 4.5 – 1.8 – 2.4
36 — 42.5 — 79.5 — 37.7 – 4.2 – 3.2 – 2.2
I couldn’t look up Deron’s trends easily, so I don’t know how his stats either improved or regressed over the season. But during Knight’s final 1/3 (against stiffer competition than his first 1/3), his assists were at about 5.1 per game and TO were about 2.8. Not quite up to Deron’s numbers, but close (3.9 assists and 2.1 TO if he had played Deron’s 27 mpg).
Other interesting things.
Deron never shot higher than 43% in college (surprised me—now I remember why I thought he’d be nothing more than a Jason Kidd wannabe). Deron’s most free throw attempts in college were 95 (junior year). Knight got to the line 171 as a freshman. Deron’s highest points per shot was 1.19 (again, junior year). Knight as a freshman scored 1.28 points per shot.
Deron was definitely the better passer and turned the ball over less from the beginning. But in every other way Knight was more impressive as a freshman. In some ways Freshman Knight was more impressive than Deron ever was in college.
I don’t think Knight will the passer Deron was. But I don’t think he’ll be a Jason Terry clone either. I think he’ll end up a very good PG, a good (but not quite great) passer, and a very good defender. I’d be very happy with him as the number 3 pick.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
by Yucca Man on Jun 16, 2011 12:20 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
excellent work
About me: I used to run AllThatJazzBasketball.Blogspot.com - now you may know me as the Sunday Syncopation guy or the GO Rating guy.You can reach me via e-mail ( allthatjazzbasketball@hotmail.com ) or on teh twitters. Really, I'm not lonely or anything . . .
2010-2011 Season Statistical Reviews (games): 10, 22, 30, 40, 51, 60a 60b, 70a 70b, 82
2010-2011 Season Review (part): 1, 2, 3, 4a 4b, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jun 16, 2011 1:12 PM MDT up reply actions
The only thing I learned from the Maverick's Championship
Is that if you keep spending money, eventually you can win an NBA championship. And I’m glad it happened this year because it’s just one more piece of evidence for the small market teams to use against the large market teams in the CBA negotiations.
This year the Dallas Mavericks had the second highest payroll in the league at $90,764,633. This year’s salary cap was $58,044,000. The luxury tax was $70,307,000. So yeah, the Mavs paid more than $20,000,000 in luxury tax for that championship.
That's kind of cynical
I guess I thought more about putting together a complete team in which all the parts work together.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
Of course, that number is artificially inflated because they’re paying Peja $15 mil, but still a valid argument. Still, there’s no silver bullet because if there was a hard cap, star players would still choose to play in the exotic locations and small market teams would end up overpaying second tier talent.
Yes, But
Dallas was paying market value for their players. I really don’t have an issue with that. If the Jazz are unwilling to pay what Dallas does to contend, they will continue to be a well run organization that fields consistently good but not quite great teams (Jordan years aside, that is what we have been). If they keep salary low until they have a good core, and then spend to supplement that core and contend, that’s just good organizational planning.
Miami on the other hand did not pay market value for their team. Their payroll was $7 million less than ours last year in fact. That’s a far more problematic issue in terms of competitive balance than a team that just outspends most others. Spending in and of itself is not the key to success, see the past decade of the Knicks history for confirmation of that. Coupling spending with good needs assessment, thorough scouting, and state of the art training (throw in a little luck) and you get a championship.
Knight
Of the 4 so called top picks (Irving, William, Kanter and Knight) the 2 PGs make the most sense and are the safest picks.
There is an outside chance Irving falls to the Jazz. Based on WP48 Irving is much better than Knight but that is a sample of 11 early season games. I think both are going to be very good to great PGs.
Knight also plays decent D. He will get bigger and stronger in the next 3 years. Running through picks will be less of a problem.
If Utah drafts Knight there is a greater chance that Jimmer will be there at 12. Further, If the Jazz can play Knight and Harris together they can play Knight and Jimmer together.
The Jazz need shooting and perimeter defense. They need to replace AK and they need quality depth on the bench.
Drafting Knight (and maybe Jimmer) means that Harris with his 8-9 mill salary can be traded for another draft pick in next years top heavy draft. That saves salary and probably produces another lotto pick.
This pick makes more sense than drafting Kanter and trading Millsap who is fine as a 6th man back up PF/C. He has performed well in the role in the past. MIllsap dramatically improves the 2nd team.
Harris can be turned into the ideal SF (or pick) eventually. There just is not one in this draft who really fits the Jazz. Vesley is high risk and does not shoot nor defend that well.
Unless there are some strange trades/decisions I think Knight helps the Jazz the most.
At 12 Brooks, Singleton, Jimmer, or maybe Hamilton or Klay Thompson can fix the SF/SG need. I like Hayward at SG better than SF but he could play SF for a lockout year if needed.
im going to go out on a limb here and say that you are
Bugoff from the Des News?
Affectionately known on Over the Monster as "Pete"
Follow me on twitter: @BigBenSportsGuy
by BigBenSportsGuy on Jun 16, 2011 12:50 PM MDT up reply actions
Can we have a moratorium on trade talk?
Seriously. It seems like every third comment involves someone’s grand plan for the franchise’s future which is completely contingent on trading either Harris, Jefferson, Memo or Millsap. Like other teams are banging down our door to get one of these guys. If we recognize the problems with these players and/or their contracts, don’t you think other teams do as well? Furthermore, the continuous suggestion that we’re going to trade one of these players for a lottery pick in next year’s “loaded” draft defies all commonsense and rationality. Teams rebuild through the draft, not by taking on our bloated contracts. Teams with lottery picks are usually teams that are in need of rebuilding, thus they are going to keep their picks or else exact a heavy price to take on our bad contracts. So enough already.
by tyrantking on Jun 16, 2011 12:59 PM MDT up reply actions 4 recs
you get a Rec
About me: I used to run AllThatJazzBasketball.Blogspot.com - now you may know me as the Sunday Syncopation guy or the GO Rating guy.You can reach me via e-mail ( allthatjazzbasketball@hotmail.com ) or on teh twitters. Really, I'm not lonely or anything . . .
2010-2011 Season Statistical Reviews (games): 10, 22, 30, 40, 51, 60a 60b, 70a 70b, 82
2010-2011 Season Review (part): 1, 2, 3, 4a 4b, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jun 16, 2011 1:11 PM MDT up reply actions
It actually makes alot
of sense. Just because players don’t work in OUR system doesn’t mean they wouldn’t be good in another system.
If Portland or Miami could add a guard like Harris their entire team gets better because he’s an upgrade over what they have.
If a team like Houston can get a low post scorer like Jefferson their team changes.
If a team can get a good PF with a team friendly contract like Millsap, that adds significant depth to a team.
Memo has an expiring 10 mill contract which would allow teams cap space to go after guys like D-will, Paul, and Howard in 2012.
There are cases that each player could be traded. Just because they don’t work in the JAZZ system or on our team doesn’t mean other teams wouldn’t want them. That argument makes no sense.
For the Love of the Game
Stockton to Malone- The perfect combination!!
"I think he just said, 'Oh my Gosh,' or whatever they say in Provo."- ESPN talking about QB. Max Hall after BYU defeated third ranked Oklahoma (2009).
MonSTARZ forever!
Amen
Don’t you think, say, Orland would love to have Millsap next to Dwight Howard? The problem with the Jazz isn’t that all the players suck. It’s that they don’t fit together correctly to form a decent team.
Prior to the Deron Williams trade I openly drooled about trading Millsap for Crash. After the trade there’s no way I’d want Gerald Wallace. What made sense for one kind of team doesn’t make sense for another kind of team. That’s why trades happen.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
If people don't talk about trade possibilities here, then where?
This is just a fan forum. This is what it is for.
Most trade ideas are unrealistic, but this is where others can point that out. Then we don’t have to have say all year, “I knew if the Jazz had only traded so and so …”.
I doubt Millsap will be so willing to go back to the bench.
His end of the season comments indicate that he sees himself as a starter.
by Theagreement on Jun 16, 2011 3:26 PM MDT up reply actions
SF
I think he would spend the entire offseason working to become the starting 3 before he went back to the bench. Who knows if that is possible.
by woodstock17 on Jun 17, 2011 12:01 AM MDT up reply actions
He didn't like that question at the end of season interviews either, actually
He indicated that he wasn’t planning to play the 3.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
I can't wait to hear Knights name next thursday!
Hope its preceded by, “With the third pick of the draft, the Utah Jazz select…”!!!!
Utah>*
I think Leonard is coming in on Sunday
tweet me @kylekirkham11
or visit my oh so lonely blog.... www.jazzaholic-rehab.blogspot.com
nickname
I also think that if the Jazz take Knight you have already given him his nickname…. The dark knight.
And we could call the Jazz kingdom “Spamalot.”
by Fesenko for President on Jun 16, 2011 2:31 PM MDT up reply actions
Here's an interesting article comparing Knight and Walker
by The Spectre of Jerry Sloan on Jun 16, 2011 2:59 PM MDT reply actions
First article I've seen to say that Knight is a bigger risk than Walker
Strange statistics too, like 1 in 3 chance of being good, and 1 in 3 chance of failing.
Knight’s work ethic is widely touted, so I would expect that with his physical traits giving him a much higher upside, he would be less of a risk, personally. Kemba isn’t going to get much quicker or taller.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
It frightens me, but it also seems kind of weird
Kemba was more polished as a Junior than Knight was as a freshman. Is this stunning? Something that seems like it ought to matter is this:
Knight as a freshman was more impressive than Kemba as a sophomore. They both played 35+ minutes per game, so it’s a fairly simple comparison.
Knight scored more and out shot (FG%, FT%, and 3P%) Kemba. Kemba’s assists and TO’s are pretty much identical to Knight’s for the last 1/3 of the season. Kemba rebounded very slightly more. Kemba had more steals and fewer personal fouls.
And that’s comparing freshman Knight to sophomore Kemba.
I don’t know what it all means, but the article seems both kind of frightening and kind of strange.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
But what about Jimmer?
That’s a joke by the way. Although the other thing that frightens me is the lack of separation amongst the four point guards: Irving, Knight, Walker and Jimmer. Really how much better than Jimmer is Irving?
Well said . . . I have wondered that myself.
And why I’d rather see us go with Kanter and if it looks like there will be a chance Jimmer or one of the other falls . . .
yojimbo is jazzed
That's a very frustrating question
I don’t know the answer. I don’t think anyone knows.
Irving played so few games, Knight struggled early, Kemba was less impressive as a soph than Knight as a frosh, Jimmer by necessity had to do shoot and have the ball in his hands so damn much.
In the end, you have to guess. I would be happy with Knight as the 3rd pick. I’d also be happy with a hundred different scenarios, really.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
But the thing I think Jazz fans need to realize is that Knight isn't a safe pick, even though that term gets bandied around.
Even though the article concludes that Walker is the better risk, it gives him a 1/3 chance at being a good player. Seems about right. I have a lot of question marks about knight’s abilities and very few of them have to do with his stats.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
Questions
Who doesn’t have question marks at this point? They are there and aren’t going away before next Thursday… so I guess the ideal pick is the player with the fewest question marks and the necessary attributes and abilities to possibly answer those questions in the future?
by woodstock17 on Jun 17, 2011 12:08 AM MDT up reply actions
I'm curious who qualifies as a "good player".
Does Tyreke count as a “good player”? Did AI count as a “good player”?
Those are the kinds of guys who I don’t think could get their teams all the way to a championship. Too many shots, too much ball required for both of them.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
this is all exactly why
we need to keep Harris this year. grab Kanter at 3 who has more upside. take Jimmer at 12 if he’s there or BPA at the wing position. None of the PGs are even close to a sure thing; not even close.
Kanter is not either, but the downside is lower and the upside higher; though the brass will no better due to work outs and such.
Still that is my take.
yojimbo is jazzed
If we compared
Jimmer’s freshman numbers to Kyrie’s and Brandon’s, I think we would have a better appreciation for what separates them. Jimmer is closer to fulfilling his potential than they are. Whether that is a plus or minus depends on your feelings on potential and your faith in the Jazz’s ability to develop it.
Concerning possible trades....
From Chad Fords chat today:
Do you see any draft night trades happening??
Chad Ford (1:16 PM)
I think there will be a bunch. Teams are telling me that trade talk really started picking up on Tuesday. Cavs are looking at potential deals using the No. 4 pick and either Baron Davis or Ramon Sessions. Jazz looking for deals. Would be open to discussing Paul Milsap or Devin Harris. Wizards looking to add talent around John Wall. Pistons are being active. Rockets have been very aggressive (as they often are). Bucks have made draft day trades past 2 years and are being aggressive again.
Crazy stuff
If Millsap and Harris are involved, then we’re looking at possibilities a lot bigger, and a lot more drastic than a simple Jazz 3rd pick for Wizards’ 6th and 18th.
There could be a lot of crazy stuff going on for a lot of teams on draft day.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I dont think this is all that surprising.
The Jazz are doing their homework to see what the value of Harris and Milsap are around the league. If the select Knight, then Harris is on the block. If they select Kanter, then Milsap is on the block. They need to know what they can get for these guys if they decide to trade them away.
by TurboJazz224 on Jun 17, 2011 9:54 AM MDT up reply actions
I disagree a bit
I think (I hope) Millsap is on the block because of Favors. But Harris … that other GM’s have had chats regarding him is indicative that the Jazz are seriously looking at a PG in the draft and think they can contribute early.
That Al’s name ISN’T being bandied about seems more indicative that they AREN’T looking at Kanter. They could still be looking at Biyombo, though—since he honestly would make more sense off the bench than starting immediately.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I think Al's conspicuous absence
Is indicative of an acknowledgement by the organization that he would not be considered an asset by most trade partners.
Millsap and Harris both enhance a trade package in which they are a part. Al is more like AK, a good player, but not worth his paycheck. Contracts like that are at their most desirable when they are expiring, and Al’s doesn’t expire until the year after next.
Plus, to be honest
We’ve pretty much got 1 PF and 3 PF/Cs in my opinion. And I think Kanter’s size really works itself out to another PF/C. Not that it can’t work like that, but with a group of 4 PFs, any PF mentioned in trades could mean Kanter is in play.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
if Kanter is drafted
He sits for a year and plays a Fes role for a season . . . we see how Al turns out and then the bigs shake out next year. Only piece that might get moved is Sap. Al hasn’t been around long enough to indicate an ROI.
yojimbo is jazzed
A number 3 pick
gets to play maybe 40 games, about 6 minutes per.
Oh my hell.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
AL
I know this is not going to be popular but it is pretty obvious to me the Jazz are planning on building around AL and Favors and are looking for the right PG to make them most effective. If they go PG this year they will probably keep Millsap for another year. That partly depends on how fast Favors develops.
They are also looking for a longer PF/C to back up or add to the rotation. If they think Kanter or Valanciunas is a compelling big they will move Millsap this year and try to get the PG next year or go with Jimmer at 12.
Worst case Jimmer does not cut it as a PG and he is a shooter off of the bench and they use a draft pick next year on the PG.
Knight should be a well rounded PG who can also shoot to open up the inside. He should gain a few pounds over the next couple of years.
The big question is what do they do about the SF, perimeter D and shooting? Hayward shows promise at SG, CJ based on stats is actually better at SF but he is not ideal.
They could also keep Harris one more year and address the wing problems this year.
In a lockout year where the Jazz are likely to be a lotto team again it might be wise to move Harris this year (save the money) and have Watson run the team with the draftee getting 15 minutes.
I think they are trying to build around Al too
And it drives me NUTS. It’s just so, so, so, so stupid.
I got the crap beat out of me in Provo one time
I do believe they are pridefully holding on to Al Jefferson, but until he extends or signs another contract with the Jazz, I won't believe they are building around him.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
Al
I agree they are focused on keeping Al and not Paul. Al has two inches and thirty pounds on Millsap—not sure if they like his size or if he is just not as marketable with his longer contract. My assumption is that they want to build around Favors long-term and that both Al and Paul are expendable and they prefer to move Millsap just because it’s easier to do. Jefferson averages nearly two blocks a game, I sort of wonder if they think he can alter more sorts than Millsap.
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