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Are the Jazz better off with a locked out season for 2011-12?


HoopsHype has the following salary data listed for the Jazz:

Player 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Al Jefferson $14,000,000 $15,000,000 $0 $0
Mehmet Okur $10,890,000 $0 $0 $0
Devin Harris $9,319,000 $8,500,000 $0 $0
Paul Millsap $6,700,000 $7,200,000 $0 $0
Derrick Favors $4,443,360 $4,753,320 $6,008,106 $7,882,663
CJ Miles $3,700,000 $0 $0 $0
Raja Bell $3,240,000 $3,480,000 $0 $0
Gordon Hayward $2,532,960 $2,709,720 $3,452,183 $4,677,708
Jeremy Evans $788,872 $0 $0 $0
TOTALS: $55,614,192 $41,643,040 $0 $0

 

If the lockout kills the NBA season, I would submit that it could actually be beneficial to the Jazz.

My usual shoddy analysis bereft of solid evidence after the 3-star jump that probably isn't much of a jump since I'm guessing most people use the FanPosts List View rather than the FanPosts Full View.

Star-divide

Here are my talking points:

1) Greg Miller has discussed that the Jazz are generally not very profitable, if profitable at all, and that if he were investing the money solely based on earning power, he likely would have divested himself of Jazz ownership by this point.  Missing a year of barely turning a profit or losing money doesn't sound bad from a financial standpoint.

2) Mehmet would be a free agent, so $10.9 mil off the books for the Jazz and potentially less of a PF/C logjam.

3) Al Jefferson would have an expiring contract and would therefore be a doubly valuable asset (attractive to both playoff-bound teams as a contributor as well as teams looking to dump salary and clear cap space).  Same goes for Devin Harris.  Raja Bell would also be an expiring, but depending on whether he can get his shot and defense back to a high level, might only be attractive as an expiring.

4) CJ Miles could be re-signed to a longer contract at a similar per year rate.  I personally feel that he's worth more than he's getting paid and that if there's a season (especially a shortened one), he'll play well and command much more in free agency next offseason.  If there's no season, I think he ends up with around the same per year amount, $3.7 mil currently, although he may not choose the Jazz.

5) The Jazz could end up with both the GSW pick AND their own pick for the 2012 draft by default, if the NBA ends up using some variation of the 2010-11 results again.

6) All of the young guys would be a year older.  The Jazz suddenly have some of the most promising young talent, but they are very young.  Gordon Hayward's 21, Derrick Favors turns 20 on Friday, Alec Burks turns 20 a week from Wednesday, Enes Kanter is 19.  The Jazz could have all of those guys working on their bodies (particularly upper body and core strength) and skills for a year without the wear and tear of the 82 game season.  Another huge plus is that Burks and Kanter will be a year older for their rookie contracts.  It'd also create a bigger gap between extending the rookie contracts for those 4 guys instead of having 2 each in back to back years.

7) It gives guys time to heal.  I don't know if Mehmet will ever recover fully from his injury, but he might be had for a steal as a free agent in 2012 when he's had 2 years to heal if he can get his shot back.  Millsap had some patellar tendinitis issues and is always nicked up and I'm sure his body could use a break from being fouled for 82 games with no calls.  Devin Harris has had fairly serious ankle, shoulder, hamstring, wrist, and knee injuries just in the last 2 years.  Raja certainly looked like he wasn't fully recovered from his wrist injury most of the year, and he had a foot injury at the end of the year.

I'd love to see a full season next year.  There are several story lines that would be fun to watch.  It'd be great to see how Jefferson and Harris look after an offseason of work.  The young guys are very exciting, and I'd love to see Favors, Hayward, Burks, and Kanter all developing together.  Millsap always comes to camp with a surprise addition to his game.  CJ is on an audition year, so he's an intriguing story line all on his own.  Jeremy Evans is trying to transition to the 3, and his body should look significantly different by the start of the season.  Corbin has to prove that he can manage the minutes effectively to put out the team most capable of balancing winning now and in the future.

It seems that the worst thing for the Jazz would be a shortened season.  It would mean paying big chunks of expensive salaries without getting the young guys the playing time they need to develop, as well as eating up rookie contract years for Burks and Kanter.

I don't think anyone's looking forward to a lost year, but with the summer leagues already canceled and training camps looking like they'll be shortened or skipped, combined with a new coach and potentially new systems, losing a full year doesn't seem so bad.  At least there could be a silver lining.

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.

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Who knows what the new CBA will say

but there’s a good chance that if the entire season gets wiped out, there will be an agreement in place such that player contracts just don’t “skip” a year.

Perhaps there will be a team option to adjust the contracts ahead one year. (For instance, the Magic would get the chance to get one more year of Dwight Howard under what would have been his 2011-12 terms.)

by El Aguacil on Jul 13, 2011 8:53 AM MDT reply actions  

From the discussions I have had with experts, it would have to be a mutual decision between the team and the players, but teams can't force players to "skip" the season.

So depending on the CBA, as you pointed out, players may be more inclined to take the extra year or skip it.

The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.

by clarkpojo on Jul 13, 2011 7:56 PM MDT up reply actions  

I have 3 reasons I can think of off the top of my head why I want a season

1. Do we really want no basketball?

2. 2 straight seasons of not playing for Kanter (the stuff on the Turkish team this offseason barely counts) would be disastrous for him.

3. For the lottery is so stacked in 2012 that I want draft order to be determined based on a season, not a formula. What if the formula magically gives the Bulls the 1st pick after the lockout? Ugh.

by Jeffersap on Jul 13, 2011 11:42 AM MDT reply actions  

Kanter will be playing for Turkey, as you said

It’s not an entire season, but it’s significant experience against talented players. He’s also not signed to a contract, so he could play in Turkey without major issue.

I wasn’t trying to say that a lost season is ideal. I think we’d all prefer a quick resolution and a full season.

I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.

by JazzHype on Jul 13, 2011 3:13 PM MDT up reply actions  

Time

The Jazz need time to learn a new defense and also mesh all the new people on offense. A short season is a lotto season for them where they try to work out the kinks and figure out what works. It also entails a trade or two depending on how the trade deadline works.

by BillZla on Jul 13, 2011 12:15 PM MDT reply actions  

You make some good points....

In a lot of ways I agree with you, but:

1- I am not sure what I would do if we had ZERO NBA games next year. I might not make it through the winter. It would be a big set back in the popularity of the league, and if that happens, even more teams might be struggling to make money.

2- I am not sure we can expect the players to improve at all over the lockout. IF they were allowed to hold team workouts all year, I think that would be great. They would be looking at 15 months of conditioning training without structured workouts or games or coachin…. I think its a stretch to think they would really be working as hard as possible for that long. Some guys would burn out and show up to training camp in not that great of shape.

by Big_B on Jul 14, 2011 10:28 AM MDT reply actions  

Basketball wise they'd be in horrible shape

But they would hopefully all be lifting, getting stronger, and growing into their bodies. The cardio could come after that.

I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.

by JazzHype on Jul 14, 2011 11:00 AM MDT up reply actions  

'Hopefullly' is exactly my point.

What we’d hope for:

1 – reasonable cardio. ( not NBA shape, but they should have been working out)
2 – Strength – hopefully improved.
3 – Basketball skills – are they still shooters, or are they so rusty that the brick all freethrows and jumpers?

I think we would be LUCKY if as a team, our players managed to do 2 out of those 3 things for 15 months. A few players would do all 3. ( Great) some players would do 1 or none. Doing all 3 for 15 months without games or coaching for incentive is expecting a lot. – and they wont be getting paid during that time either.

SO some guys would come back with less injury issues, but not actually be as good of a player? ugh. IF we do skip a season, the start of the next one could look pretty ugly for awhile.

by Big_B on Jul 14, 2011 11:15 AM MDT up reply actions  

But that goes for every team in the league, right?

And you can bet that Millsap’s going to be ready at the start of camp, even if that camp starts in a year. Not sure about the young guys, particularly the rookies. I know I wouldn’t want to blow out my knee before signing my contract in some rec center pickup game.

I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.

by JazzHype on Jul 14, 2011 11:30 AM MDT up reply actions  

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