January Expectations For The Jazz - The Downbeat - #654
Tempered optimism abounds in the New Year even though we're only five games into the regular season. Jazz fans, myself not excluded, are notorious for being on one extreme or the other. Usually both extremes are without merit but so far this season, it might be justified. The three losses have been by an average of almost 20 points per game while the two wins have averaged a 3.5 point margin. It's no coincidence that the two wins have come at home where the team appears to have more energy than on the road. Granted they've also played three of the top teams in the West so far away from the ESA, but they haven't really been in any of them.
So now the team hits January where they will be sleeping in hotel rooms for only three nights. However, few, if any, of the home games could be considered gimmees. On paper, the Cavs, Nets, and Kings should be games that the Jazz win. After that you have the Lakers, Mavericks, and Blazers that don't have problems winning on the road. The rest of the home schedule is filled with games that could go either way.
There will be ups and downs at home still no matter the perfect record so far. The one quality win -- even though I know this isn't the BCS -- was against a good 76ers team. Philly is ranked high so far this season in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The win against New Orleans though -- while still a win -- was one that should have been by a bigger margin. Eric Gordon was out and it was Jarrett Jack and Jason Smith who almost stole the show. That shouldn't happen at home.
So like I've been rehashing for the past month or so, don't let expectations go wild either way. It's likely that the Jazz aren't as bad as they seem but they're not as good as they would appear either. At least wait two to three more weeks before making judgements on this team.
I think we're seeing Raja Bell being slowly phased out which should please 99.9% of the fanbase. He hasn't broken 20 minutes since the first game of the season and hasn't been on the floor late in the game. Corbin has elected to go with CJ Miles or Josh Howard to close out games.
The next move will come with him coming off the bench. He won't be regulated to the 13th man, but if he averages more than 15 minutes a game for the rest of the month, I'd be surprised. In David Locke's post, he talks about why this hasn't been done already. One of the reasons he gives is that nobody has taken the job from him. I would argue that while CJ, Hayward, and Howard don't have the best numbers, they're far and away better than what Raja has put up. And like I said when I commented on Locke's post, it's really a continuation of last season. A lot of players have gotten off to slow starts because of the hectic season, but we expect most of them to bounce back. With Raja, I'm not sure.
With his playing time likely to become more limited, where does he get the chance to improve? I would love if he becomes a semi-effective player off the bench and in certain capacities but with Hayward, Howard, and CJ all outplaying him, not to mention Alec Burks demanding (through his play of course) more minutes, where does he fit in? He has nowhere to go but up from his current numbers, but how much more effective can he be?
Are fans coming around on Josh Howard? One of the best things about Jazz fans is that even with players that have what might be considered character issues, they'll rally around players that play hard and just flat out play basketball. Howard's never met a shot that he didn't like, but he took two charges in last night's game against the Hornets that will help endear himself to fans.
He's also getting to the free-throw line at a career-rate. While his shooting percentage has been low, he's been going to the stripe five times a game -- seven times per 36 minutes -- and his 23 of 24 on the year. If his shot comes around, he's going to be a great pickup. Even if it doesn't, if he keeps getting to the line at the rate he is now, he'll still be a good pickup.
Tuesday trivia... Can you list the top five scorers so far for the Jazz in order by total points? Answer after the jump.
Tuesday poll...
| Rk | Player | PTS ▾ |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Jefferson | 66 |
| 2 | Devin Harris | 61 |
| 3 | Paul Millsap | 59 |
| 4 | Josh Howard | 57 |
| 5 | Derrick Favors | 46 |
| 6 | C.J. Miles | 45 |
| 7 | Gordon Hayward | 39 |
| 8 | Alec Burks | 24 |
| 9 | Enes Kanter | 24 |
| 10 | Earl Watson | 16 |
| 11 | Raja Bell | 11 |
| 12 | Jeremy Evans | 8 |
| 13 | Jamaal Tinsley | 0 |
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i'm on the record in the jazz route 66 with saying 7 wins.
Jazz fan who lives in Detroit. Stats guy. Photoshop novice. Likes to make the pass to the guy who gets the assist. Questions? Comments? Concerns? Get at me:
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by AllThatJazzBasketball on Jan 3, 2012 9:24 AM MST reply actions
And I in the comments with saying 9 wins.
But 2 of those might be too optimistic.
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3
Even if Howard improves, what was the point of signing him for one year? We certainly aren’t contenders and we probably aren’t making the playoffs. Chances are, he just views the Jazz as a springing board for his next team. I think his minutes could be better utilized to develop the young’ins.
We don't really have a young'un SF besides Evans, kinda.
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And I know the Jazz are playing Hayward at the 3, but I'm not sure it's helping his development or confidence to play there.
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I've been impressed with Howard so far
I loved the lineup of Harris, Hayward, Howard, Milsap, and Favors we saw against the 76’ers.
I kind of think that O’Conner signed Howard thinking that it would possibly allow Hayward to play his more natural position (2). Unfortunately Corbin hasn’t made that happen yet.
by Daniel Smith on Jan 3, 2012 10:01 AM MST up reply actions
That was my thought on the trade as well. CJ & Howard would play the 3, Hayward, Bell, and Burks the 2.
But I also had some reservations about whether Ty would play it that way. I was VERY optimistic that he saw what everyone else saw about Hayward at the 2 last year and Raja being ineffective, but I guess he’s not on board with that yet.
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this is my favorite line up right now
gordo is so much better at the 2 its funny.
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by Evans Almighty on Jan 3, 2012 11:14 AM MST up reply actions
Definitely wouldn't have guessed the top 5 scorers. Top 4 are actually pretty balanced. I like that.
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I'm still not sure whether Raja is old and slow now or if he has just gotten some lazy habits.
But until he fixes how he plays, he won’t be very effective on this team, especially when Hayward, CJ, and Burks should be getting time at the 2 over him.
If the Jazz insist on using Hayward at the 3, then CJ and Burks are still both better options.
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I was at the game last night and was impressed with Josh Howard
There were still a few times when he should have passed the ball instead of shooting, but getting to the free throw line made up for it and he was efficient as a result.
There were a couple of concerns defensively last night. For one, my friend and I kept wondering why the heck Jason Smith of all people kept scoring. And Jarrett Jack should not score that many points… though it was encouraging when he couldn’t get it going in the 4th.
The good news is, I half expected Belinelli to light it up from 3-point range, since he’s exactly the kind of player that always does that against the Jazz. He was 2-4, but otherwise didn’t get the opportunity.
Belinelli should have gotten more shots
But everyone was making them, so hard to really fault them for their offense. When he hit his first one, I thought he was ready to go off.
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Am I the only one loving this season's scheduling?
I mean it seems like there’s a Jazz game on almost every night. And I also like waiting for the basketballs to start until after college football has wound down. The NBA should always start on Christmas. My only real complaint is that the Jazz never get to play early games on weekends and holidays. I would have loved it if yesterday’s game had been played in the afternoon instead of at night when I’m trying to get the kids fed and washed and off to bed.
I like it too
But just wait till the injuries start piling up and the quality of play goes down as guys are worn down
by Stockton2Malone on Jan 3, 2012 10:01 AM MST up reply actions
I was strongly against the Howard signing
But I’ve come around to it. The thing is, our offense looks so dysfunctional we basically have to have guys who can either create their own shot or drive strong to the hoop.
Burks- he seemed timid last night. He didn’t seem to know his place on the team- which I think is a combination of lack of sufficient training camp and not being given enough leash to make the mistakes rookies make. He seemed to be playing scared. But he plays with energy and he has the instincts that should allow him to be a high octane scorer and a saavy defender. I don’t think reaching the level of a guy like James Harden or Allan Houston.
Favors- here’s the thing with Derrick- we aren’t using him right. The way we use him reminds me of a person who buys a brand new IPhone and then uses it to just make calls. Making calls is a fine use of an iPhone, but it can do so, so much more. Favors can – and should be – a featured scorer in our offense. He is capable of actually creating a shot and scoring off finesse- we need to start using him better.
at the end of the bit on Burks it should say
- I don’t think reaching the level of a guy like James Harden or Allan Houston is out of the question
by Stockton2Malone on Jan 3, 2012 10:00 AM MST up reply actions
He's already got one advantage over Houston:
He is athletic, which gives him the ability to drive to the hoop and create a shot, whereas Houston—great shooter though he was—was mostly a spot-up shooter.
"Three-pointer from the parking lot...YES! The Golden Griff!"
by Dr. Dunkenstein on Jan 6, 2012 4:13 PM MST up reply actions
Really, timid?
He seemed a little overaggressive to me at times. Sure he looked a little nervous, but I would definitely not say timid. One of his first touches was the drive to the hoop where he ran over a Hornets guy and got the offensive foul.
I think Favors is fitting in quite nicely, but he needs to be paired with Millsap more and Jefferson less.
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No, not timid in Iso situations with the ball
Timid working within the framework of a team. He didn’t seem to know what the team wanted from him. Part of that is a lack of a normal training camp. Another big part is probably coaches communicating to him. It didn’t seem to be Alec’s fault. So yes, he was very aggressive when he had the ball, but he seemed a bit lost (but not in an incriminating way) otherwise)
by Stockton2Malone on Jan 3, 2012 10:14 AM MST up reply actions
Who doesn't at this point?
I’ve seen moments of lostness from pretty much everyone on the roster. As I said in the game thread, Burks actually funneled someone baseline, which none of the other guards seem to do on a regular basis.
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Favors needs a go to move in the post
When he can’t get to the rim on pure athleticism he needs a go to move when he has his back to the basket or face up game. He gets that than I can see him being the number 1 option when he’s in.
Favors right now should just work on his jump shot, and be a monster on defense patrolling the paint. His offensive game will get there. He’s only 20, dude is still a pup.
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
by EcERyda69 on Jan 3, 2012 11:02 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
Random
While waiting for the game last night I was watching the Spurs feed on the Minn v SA game and in the player intros they put up Devin Harris’ picture and number for Wesley Johnson. I had to rewind it a couple of times to make sure but I thought that would be a typical Kahn move.
I think the Josh Howard move was a good one
We didn’t have a starting quality 3. Josh Howard was available at a bargain basement rate, without hurting our cap flexibility in future years. Nobody’s development is being hindered, since both Hayward and Burks are really natural 2s. So we get some decent SF play, and our young guys get to learn on the floor with a competent 3.
I'd agree completely if we actually let Hayward play 2.
Most of his minutes have come at the (3), which is a mistake. Now that it is becoming obvious that Bell doesn’t have it and Howard does. My hope is that Haywards plays more 2.
by Daniel Smith on Jan 3, 2012 10:05 AM MST up reply actions
I think there are at least 20 people on the board who would agree with this, maybe more.
Perhaps it should be a poll topic.
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Even Harpring has said this on the game broadcasts
and in true Harpring fashion, multiple times. I think “Hayward is really a natural 2” statements have easily outnumbered fry sauce references so far.
I would love a 6'9" SG who can shoot, facilitate and dribble penetrate
oh hey, hayward is 6’9"….
And basically as I've said in almost every post I've made since I joined is
Hayward’s body is more like a 6’6" player but he has a big head and neck so he can see around the court and make plays a lot better kinda like Magic Johnson always had the height advantage.
by thatdoolinkid on Jan 3, 2012 12:07 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Howard
I actually really like the Howard signing for a couple of reasons. First, he doesn’t need to make shots to make a difference. His slashing, hustle, and defense provide a much needed spark. In that way, he is a positive on-court influence to CJ, Hayward, and Burks. Also, isn’t his style of play exactly what we have always wanted out of CJ? He isn’t timid, and he just keeps going at the opposing team. He should start at the 3, moving Hayward to the 2, IMO.
I was surprised too when Howard got signed to the Jazz. It did not seem like a good fit; however, he has been looking good and perhaps he will be one of the feww bright spots the Jazz will have this season.
by Jeffrey Thompson on Jan 3, 2012 10:22 AM MST reply actions
do u think millsap is able to play the SF position?
since he’s an undersized pf
In certain matchups, yes
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
by EcERyda69 on Jan 3, 2012 10:54 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
Maybe it's just me, but
It seems the Jazz are back to using Sap the way they did in his early playing days. The guys worked too hard for that…
by Stockton2Malone on Jan 3, 2012 10:48 AM MST reply actions
Harris needs to learn the pick and roll
The pass he made to millsap in the 4th last night is exactly how he needs to play
by motes on Jan 3, 2012 12:09 PM MST via iPhone app up reply actions
AJ for Cousins + Fredette ??? Half joking, but seriously how much value could AJ pull in a trade, wee almost got him for free.
Please NO Cousins
He’s a head case. They don’t need someone like that in the locker room.
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
by EcERyda69 on Jan 3, 2012 11:39 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
Cousins is a head case, but if you treat him professionally, things will be fine.
A lot of the problems have been brought on by the Kings’ own actions, I think.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
Treat him professionally...Really
Hes getting paid millions… he needs to get his head on straight, and ACT like a professional
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
Look at what happened w/ Beasley
I’m not saying things would be perfect, but I think the working relationship would be good enough. How many NBA guys really act professionally? The main thing is to realize he’s going to do some outlandish things and make some dumb off the cuff type of comments and to just let it go most of the time. Deal with it behind closed doors, don’t take it to the media, don’t comment about suspensions & other discipline, and in general, be the bigger man and have control without needing to look like you’re in control.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
I'm all for being part of a 3 team trade with sacramento to give them AJ
But heaven help us please don’t give us DMC. Anything but that head case.
by thatdoolinkid on Jan 3, 2012 12:10 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I was thinking something a bit more complicated....
We know Sacramento wants to get rid of Cousins, New Jersey wants Dwight(and will probably send the Russian Mafia to Orlando’s front office to get him if necessary, and we seen to like to help NJ), and Orlando wants “proven” vets in return for Dwight. So I’m thinking something with a 4 team trade involving around 12 players.
(This is a rough idea and I don’t know if all the salaries match)
Orlando gets: Al Jefferson, Mehmet Our, Raja Bell, Demarcus Cousins
New Jersey gets: Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu, John Salmons
Sacramento gets: CJ Miles, Jordan Far Mar, Brook Lopez
Utah gets: JJ Reddick, Hassan Whiteside
Most guys I threw in there as fillers, but the main parts are Dwight to NJ, Cousins and Jefferson to Orlando, and Lopez to Sacramento
by Pasta_Champion on Jan 3, 2012 12:16 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Hassan Whiteside? No thanks.
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Like I said
I threw in a bunch of fillers, plus he makes the minimum and we could just stash him in the D-League
by Pasta_Champion on Jan 3, 2012 12:27 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
The Howard signing was a good move
If for no other reason then the young wings we have need a veteren presence. I know Raj a was supposed to fill that role, but really, when you’re 20 years old you’re not going to listen to an older guy that you can beat every time. Howard will at least be able to match, if not outperform the young guys in certain situations. And as much as I love Hayward’s passing, I hope at least a little of Howard’s selfishness rubs off on him.
by Pasta_Champion on Jan 3, 2012 11:31 AM MST via Android app reply actions
one thought on Howard
he has a lingering old school defensive style that I think has been missing and its rubbing off. I’m hoping the kids can pick up on his savvy. lookin forward to him midseason staring alongside Hayward
by UtonganKidInCali on Jan 3, 2012 12:18 PM MST via Android app reply actions
I hope at one point in the season...Hope it happens sooner
That the Starting Lineup will look like this
1. Harris
2. Hayward
3. Howard’
4. Sap/Big Al
5. Favors
"I hate it! It looks like a stickup at 7-Eleven. Five guys standing there with their hands in the air."
Norm Sloan
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors."
Weldon Drew
This should be the starting lineup already in a normal world
But in the Jazz world where they always start slow and seemingly lethargically, I would submit that the best starting lineup might be Watson, Hayward, Howard, Favors, Kanter.
You’ve got 2 pass-first distributors, an outside shooter, a slasher, 2 rebounders, and defensive presence in the middle.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
I like it
I really like Watson but I hope Devin Harris settles down and figures out how to pass to our guys and get some assists. If he can do that and score like has been the last two games we would be in great shape.
by motes on Jan 3, 2012 12:46 PM MST via iPhone app up reply actions
They both looked awful at the beginning of the year, but I think they're both coming around.
I think Watson needs to be in when Favors is in, and I like Favors and Kanter playing together, which I didn’t expect at all coming into this year.
I am in no way affiliated with the blog of the same name.
I believe that lineup was the one who primarily built the pre-halftime lead on NOLA last night
Kanter and Favors in particular seem to work well together. Kanter has such command of the boards that Favors can kind of roam where he’s needed on defense.
by Stockton2Malone on Jan 3, 2012 1:04 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
It's obvious to me and about everyone else that Howard is well on his way to earning a starting position.
Like everyone else suggested, I too think the Jazz should start Howard at the SF and Hayward at the SG.
The Jazz actually have 3-4 shooting guards in Hayward, Burks, Bell and CJ—with CJ also being more of a SF than any of the other 3.
However, right now, Howard is the Jazz’s only true SF, although CJ can play SF reasonably well—but Burks and Hayward probably not so much. Evans doesn’t seem to be transforming himself into a SF, but rather, seems to be content with being a too-skinny PF. Millsap could perhaps play SF against other similar players, like Metta World Peace, but he certainly can’t give the Jazz what Howard does with ball handling and quickness on both offense and defense.
If Howard keeps improving his play, I think the Jazz should try to sign him to a 2-3 year extension. Even if the Jazz get a very high draft pick this year (their own pick) and get someone like Harrison Barnes, and/or or get one more of the other good SF prospects, that player will still be very young and will need to grow into the position. The Jazz lineup I would like to see as the year goes on is the following:
PG: Harris, Watson, Tinsley
SG: Hayward, Burks, (Bell)
SF: Howard, Miles
PF: Favors, Millsap, Evans
C: Jefferson, Kanter (Fesenko)
I’d like to see the Jazz waive Bell outright. Under the new CBA, I’ve read that a team can average out the player’s remaining salary over the # of years left for the term of the contract multiplied by 2, plus 1 year. That is the amount that a team then has to count against its salary cap, if it waives the player. In Bell’s case, the Jazz owe him somewhere close to between $6.5 mil. and $7 mil. over the next two years, which would require them to count approximately $1.3 mi. to $1.4 mil. in the Jazz’s salary cap for the next five years, if the Jazz waive him. The Jazz should be able to work with that small amount of dead weight salary and still avoid the luxury tax.
I’d also like to see the Jazz re-sign Fesenko. It appears they could re-sign him for around $1 mil. per year. Apparently, he is still recovering from his knee injury and isn’t in NBA shape yet, but he could provide insurance at the big men positions, if someone is injured, which is very likely to happen this season. He also gives the Jazz someone who can at least match up physically against really big post players like Andrew Bynum—who is likely to really thump the Jazz for the next few years, if they don’t have someone to match up on him defensively. He also gives the Jazz another good interior defender who takes up a lot of space. For the piddly amount of his salary (by NBA standards), it should be a no-brainer for the Jazz to re-sign, despite the goof-off attitude that he has. If he can help the Jazz win even a few regular season games, and especially if he can help the Jazz win a playoff series (like he did against Denver two years ago), he is certainly worth every penny of his puny salary, and he is not going to complain about playing time—he will just be gald to still be in the league.
by Fesenko for President on Jan 3, 2012 1:04 PM MST reply actions
I think both Favors and Kanter will match up quite well vs Bynum.
I think the bigger problem is actually Gasol, where it used to be Odom.
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I would also like Bell to be waived. I mentioned using the stretch clause on him last week.
The stretch clause being the fact that you pay that player over 2 times the years left on the contract plus one year. Unfortunately that stretch clause can only be used on players signed under the new CBA, so it wouldn’t apply to Raja. So the Jazz either have to buy him out (I think it’s a reasonable idea, especially if he loses a lot of playing time).
Or the Jazz could use the amnesty clause on him next year.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
any value to his leadership...
…or potential leadership?
Do players only respect a player who is PRESENTLY playing well, or are they mature enough to value the wise words of one who has been there, even if he’s currently riding the pine?
I'll make it coach.
by MTN on Jan 3, 2012 6:02 PM MST up reply actions
consensus seems
Howard gets the thumbs up.
Hayward is better suited to play the 2 guard spot.
Honestly I want to see how Tinsley plays as well. The guys got some nice court vision.
What about our bigs?
My biggest concern would be how we play our bigs, such as the right combinations, improving defense, getting most out of guys like Favors and Millsap.

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