Adjusting the Trajectory Part 2: Where Perception meets Reality
by AllThatJazzBasketball on Feb 16, 2012 1:24 PM MST
in Editorial, Rants, & Opinions
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Countless times this season we've been scolded by the powers that be for even mentioning rebuilding. We're not rebuilding. We're just not. It's one of the few things Utah Jazz General Manager Kevin O'Connor actually has comments about.
Well, if we're not rebuilding then we've living on a pretty faulty foundation. We sure as heck aren't contending right now. Contenders don't lose some of the games we've lost. I guess there's more to life than being in the playoffs and being in the lottery. One could suggest that specific, distinct, ecotones exist between those two poles. We want to be a serious contender that wins at least 8 playoff games in a single season, every season; with the chance of improving towards going to the NBA finals. That's what we want for our team -- doesn't matter if you are a casual fan, or a suit in the front office. We're all on the same page with what we want: success. There are a lot of ways to get that. How did we get there last time? I guess we rode the backs of two great players and one great coach. (All three of them got enough experience to work themselves into being great -- none of them were great right out of the gate, let's not forget)
You can't expect lightning to strike twice, but you can re-create the situations where it happened through honest observation, and application. But the main point was back then our team developed naturally and had a very natural growth cycle that started off pretty far down the totem poll of NBA power. And that core remained pretty much intact for seasons while players found their roles and the team grew together. And the team went through all the ecotones from a lottery team to a serious contender.
Sadly, the road to contention isn't a divided highway, traffic goes both ways -- and you could be heading in the wrong direction as well. The continual recitation of "we're not rebuilding! we're not rebuilding!" is a nice mantra to have, but it brings no greater enlightenment. If the Jazz maximize our players talent, and ride the veterans while exiling our youth to the bench we're still not going to make the playoffs this year. Really, we're not. And we will not. (If we do, feel free to throw this post back in my face -- I will eat crow. But it doesn't look like it's on the menu.) However, if the Jazz recognize that some of these guys aren't in our future plans, and stop playing THEM, while giving more opportunities for our younger guys to grow we will learn more about them. We will be better prepared to make smart decisions about them too. If Oklahoma City put their youth brigade on the Utah Jazz development plan they would still have question marks about Jeff Green, and he'd still be on their roster instead of Kendrick Perkins. Because they played him for a few years they were able to a) know if he fits, b) and bring his value up enough so that they could flip him for the "defense-first" starting center from a Championship team. (Could we flip Derrick Favors for Tyson Chandler? Nope.)
We aren't doing that. And we have a history of not doing anything like that either. C.J. Miles is the perfect example, he's been a question mark his entire career -- and finally starting to give results, in his 7th year in the league. That's a super return on our investment for a 2nd round pick. We already see how well the Jazz are handling C.J.'s eventual replacement (Alec Burks). Maybe that lottery pick can one day be worth a late 1st rounder if we keep this up? Or he could be worth a whole lot more -- all of our young guys can -- if they get the opportunities to get better. The only thing today's players develop while watching older, injury ravaged, veterans run up and down the court is resentment.
Let's not forget that the Jazz made room for John Stockton by parting ways with former All-Star Rickey Green. Let's not forget that the Jazz made room for Karl Malone by parting ways with former Rookie of the Year, All-Star, and current Hall of Famer Adrian Dantley. I'm not advocating a firesale here, though. I am advocating actually playing our younger guys. At this point some players ahead of them are just stealing minutes. Raja Bell is having a great season right now, but he's not going to be a big part of our team in two years. And if he is, then we're in trouble. The minutes he's getting improve and help him less than the 5-10 more minutes that Alec Burks could be playing. Minutes exist upon a moving scale. Five minutes to a guy like Raja every game is nothing, and means nothing. Five minutes to a rookie (no strings attached) -- is great. They get five more minutes to learn the game during the game. There is no greater currency for a young player than confidence -- and confidence is related to having banked enough solid minutes on the floor to fall back on during tough times. You remove confidence when a coach yanks a young player out of the game for the one mistake he makes in a brief stint. you kill confidence by not even playing them. Raja has enough career confidence to not miss 5-10 minutes a game, as long as you still rely on him to finish games. Those minutes are useless to him, but priceless to a younger guy.
This goes for people like Favors and Enes Kanter too -- guys who play hard every trip down the floor. They're young, but we need them (Both Top 3 picks) to be great if our team has ANY future, regardless if Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap are playing like All-Stars (or not).
I've presented a lot of ideas here, and I am going to go into them more fully later. But I did want to leave on these notes:
- I think you can find minutes for younger players without HAVING to trade or cut veterans
- I think you can play younger players more without TANKING
- After all, the quicker you can turn around lottery picks into rotation players the sooner they can help your team win games
- If your lottery picks are helping you win games, and you have 4 of them, then you are bound to win more games.
- If you are winning more games you're a team on the rise
- If you team started out in the lottery, and they are on the rise, then you, the fans, the front office, and the players all know the franchise is going in the right direction
And that is where perception meets reality. Because then you're not 'contending' like a rebuilding team. And you're not rebuilding like a contending team either. You're growing naturally, like we once did nearly three decades ago.
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I have to admit that I was a little skeptical when we signed Josh Howard this off season. Like everyone else, I was concerned that his minutes would take away from the minutes allotted to Hayward and Burkes. As we all know, Hayward has not suffered, but Burkes really has. After dwelling on these feelings and watching the first month of our season, I had a realization, and I wonder if anyone else agrees with me on this.
Keeping our team competitive by playing some veterans will not only help our team win, but it will also help our young guys learn what it is like to play in games that matter. I had never thought about that this before, but the learning curve for young guys playing in games that are close and actually matter must be much steeper that playing in games where we get blown out. It’s a common phase that is thrown around every once in a while, but our young guys need to learn “how to win”.
I honestly think that KOC is trying to create a winning environment for our young guys so they develop during legitimate game time experience in games that actually matter. Of course all this doesn’t matter unless Ty distributes minutes correctly, which I don’t believe he has learned to do yet.
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I agree, to a point.
I agree that it is very important to teach kids how to win and to have a winning environment. However, I do not believe that is close to happening right now. Something needs to change. It is becoming more and more obvious that we cannot win consistently with our starting lineup/rotation the way it is. I thought we learned that lesson the last half of last year, but I guess not. Of the last several losses, the only thing the veterans have done for the team is dig a huge hole then dare the young guys to climb out of it. So much for vets leading to wins.
You know what team appears to know nothing about letting rooks sit in a winning environment? The Spurs. Kawhi Leonard has been starting. They’ve been playing young guys big minutes since as long as I can remember! But we would never want to be like the Spurs…
by SexualFavors15 on Feb 16, 2012 2:16 PM MST up reply actions
Your Spurs example is a little skewed. The reason the Spurs are playing their young guys so much is pure necessity. Duncan and Parker are old, and Manu has been hurt.
Follow me on twitter Follow @Tlarsen224
by TurboJazz224 on Feb 16, 2012 2:48 PM MST up reply actions
The point is they are playing young guys along with old guys and winning. We are playing Vets (along with Gordo) with a sprinkling of young guys and we are now losing. I just say we know what the Vets are giving us, why not get the young guys more minutes. After all, they’ve been playing like they deserve the minutes.
by SexualFavors15 on Feb 16, 2012 3:13 PM MST up reply actions
I think the Jazz don’t want to call it a rebuilding season, because of the meaning that word carries. I think the management is just afraid that continued use of that word carries the meaning that it is ok to lose, coz hey we are rebuilding.
I am sure the management realizes that they are more than likely not going to make the playoffs. But I think they still want the team to play to contend. Losing should not be accepted by anyone. Winning is first and foremost, a mentality.
Also it gives you a chance to see what you have in your young talent. For example, think of the season Millsap is having. The guy starts the season unceremoniously benched for a rookie, for no fault of his own. He fights his way back and plays well enough to be considered for the All Star game. Then has a few bad games, again people are clamoring for him to be traded or benched. Based on Millsap’s history, he will probably bounce back. Question to ask is can someone like Favors handle something like that. We all see the physical potential, but does he have the mental toughness to go with it. Lets be honest, right now he is the fan favorite, blue eyed boy, saviour and messiah all rolled into one. But eventually he will be scouted and his flaws exposed and the fans will turn on him too. Can he bounce back? Is he willing to fight for his position like Millsap.
I think thats why you play the vets and make the young guys fight to take their position and earn their minutes. Lets see if Favors and Kanter have the mental toughness to gut it out, and win their spots. In the long run that experience is just as important as game time minutes.
by IndianSteeler09 on Feb 16, 2012 2:30 PM MST reply actions
Your post makes no sense
you know all those questions you have about Favors? The answers to all of them come with playing time. Can he do this? Will he respond correctly? What happens if? etc. We don’t know, we need to know. Yes you can mix vets and young guys, but we don’t need to go 10 deep. Play the man we traded an All Star for, its that simple. Millsap and Jefferson will both still be around next year, what will change then? Favors should get equal minutes with Hayward.
How is he going to get minutes? The heat is on Millsap, if he keeps playing like he has been playing recently some of his minutes are going to go to Favors. Like they did at the start of the season when Millsap was benched. He couldnt handle it then and Millsap got his spot back.
My point was simple if you are going to bet your future on the guy, you would like to see if he can atleast beat out competition from a supposedly “inferior” player.
Favors has been playing 20 mins a game. Thats enough time to show what that he can deliver. One way or another the situation will sort itself out by the end of the year
by IndianSteeler09 on Feb 16, 2012 6:07 PM MST up reply actions
20 minutes is not enough minutes.
Look at his per-36 numbers, or I will for you. 14.9 pts, 9.6 rebounds, 1.7 blks, on 11.8 fga. By comparison Jefferson is 20.3 pst, 10 rebounds, 1.8 blks on 18.6 fga. Show me where Big Al deserves more minutes. If we ran the offense through Favors, like we do Jefferson he would probably be equally as inefficient (which I am not suggesting). The difference is, Big Al will only make moderate improvments in his game, like passing out of double and triple teams every third time rather than never. While Favors hasn’t even come close to his potential. Is Favors as refined of a players as Big Al? Not even close. And wouldn’t it be nice if we could get Favors the minutes to get him to that place.
And you say that one way or another this will sort itself out by the end of this year. I totally think you are underestimating our FO’s ability at dragging their feet when it comes to decisions. I can absolutely see this situation being the same, with us not knowing what we have with Favors because he never got the minutes he needed, when Big Al’s contract expires and we just let him go for nothing. See Boozer, Carlos.
I agree with the FO dragging their feet on Boozer, but they also were proactive with Deron Williams. As far as Jefferson vs Favors, admittedly Big Al is taking too many shots for anybody’s liking, having said that who else except Millsap were scoring at the start of the season.
The situation should change with Hayward now playing better than he was at the start of the season, and likely the offense would flow a bit more through him. As far as Favors pts per game, thats a bit misleading because he is not the center of attention for the defense. Which is what makes Millsap all the more impressive is his efficiency while being the center of attention for the defence.
I would like to see Favors and Millsap being played together a bit more, for some reason Ty Corbin doesnt do that enough
by IndianSteeler09 on Feb 16, 2012 7:10 PM MST up reply actions
If we wanted to commit to favors, we'd need to ditch either Millsap or Big Al
Which would one should go?
I'll make it coach.
If Millsap won't come off the bench probably him to start.
Simply because you can get more out of him and his contract. But as starters neither should be in our future plans. If there isn’t a trade before the deadline, I hope we deal Al during the all-star break. I don’t know if I can stomach another season of watching Favors and Kanter get what scraps they can behind Big Al.
My point isn't that the FO always drags their feet,
just that they are more than capable of not doing anything, rather than doing the wrong thing. It is something that has driven me crazy for awhile. I could bring up other examples, but it doesn’t really matter, just so that you are aware that it is something they are realistically capable of doing.
And my point in bringing up the per-36 numbers wasn’t to be like ‘omg look at Favors stats, he needs more minutes!!!’ But more to say why does Al need close to 35 minutes, while Favors barely breaks 20, and that has been trending down lately. Favors and Kanter need more minutes, they both could benefit from at least 5 more minutes a game, and I would prefer more (but I am of course on that side of the argument).
I think eventually both need to go. Al, coz i think he wont fit into what Jazz would want to do eventually. Millsap, because he wont be ok to come off the bench. Nor
should he be because he is too good and has worked too hard to earn his position.
I would love for Millsap to be a Jazzman, but I think eventually he would have to go both for Jazz’s sake and for his own as well
by IndianSteeler09 on Feb 16, 2012 9:14 PM MST up reply actions
I dont get this train of thought
We should trade him because he won’t come off the bench, but he shouldnt be ok with coming off the bench because he is too good so why do we want him to come off the bench? he’s either good enough to start so he should be starting or he’s not so he should accept coming off the bench
Its real easy, you play the best players the most minutes. It doesnt take 30 minutes a night to see that a young guy is outperforming a vet (see Burks against NOLA)
I’m not as bugged by Favors and Kanter not getting more minutes, I think they are getting enough to get better every night and thats what really matters. They clearly aren’t ready to start so whats the big deal if they are improving every game? My big issue is with Josh Howard. He’s flat out terrible, a black hole, no assists in his last 100 minutes on the floor or something crazy like that and like others have said he is in no way in our future plans. He needs to go.
But its a totally different situation with Al and Sap. Why are people so ready to look to the future and ignore what you have already. What happens if we ship off Al and Sap and Favors and Kanter turn out to be no good or average at best? It just bugs me people want to ship out a borderline ALL STAR in Millsap just because we maybe, might, possibly could have something better in Favors/Kanter. And I could understand it more if Millsap was 30 someting and towards the end of his career but he’s not, he’s only a few years older than the young guns.
I actually agree with you, I was talking specifically in the case that Favors does turn out as good as expected. You can’t have two starting PF. Favors has more long term potential, bigger and younger. So I would imagine the Jazz would prefer to keep him over Millsap in that case.
by IndianSteeler09 on Feb 17, 2012 9:43 AM MST up reply actions
Made a couple points already
in my player assessment post.
1) Minutes wouldnt be as scarce if we had any real injuries so far into the season.
2) Raja playing 15-25 minutes a game is fine, and probably necessary given how he is playing. The Jazz don’t have an excess of 3 point shooters and it will be hard for the young guys to practice real offense with our paint packed all year long…
3) Howard’s 20+ mins/game are the real issue to me. He is more of an ISO player than a jazz style of player. He obviously is not the future, and he doesn’t really help the young guys learn the jazz basketball either.
by Mykroberts on Feb 16, 2012 2:32 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
I would agree that Howard getting minutes he is, is the big issue.
But I also think it is insane not to be giving Favors more minutes. He is not coming along as quickly as he should be. Maybe some of that is his fault, but who knows, since he isn’t really getting the playing time he should be.
And Raja is playing fine, and 15 minutes is something I am totally ok with. In the past 7 games he has not had less than 21 minutes though, and outside of the blowouts he is close to 30 minutes or more. All while Burks gets DNPs and garbage time minutes. So saying Raja is ok getting X amount of minutes does not really paint the whole picture when Burks essentially is getting no minutes (I’m sorry letting him play the whole 4th quarter in a 20 point game shouldn’t count).
I don’t understand why Burks doesn’t get PT. Can anyone honestly tell me that having Raja, Howard and CJ out there over him is earning us any more wins?
Howard reminds me...
…of when one of your pick-up game regulars brings a friend. Everybody is cordial to him, but he doesn’t really fit in and nobody misses him when he doesn’t come back the next week. Mostly he’s just a body to even up the sides….except in this case, he’s an EXTRA body that we don’t need.
I’m sensitive to the fact that he is trying to rebuild his own life, and I wish him well with that. But the Utah Jazz is not a jobs program. You don’t give minutes to a guy out of charity.
I'll make it coach.
I still don't understand why we signed him.
Oh that’s right, so we don’t have to give meaningful minutes to our lottery picks. loud audible sigh
lol, wow
you know if he continued his great play from the start of the season, none of you would be complaining. he’s in a slump right now, give the guy a break.
I don't know about that
There were a lot of people saying things like “Josh is playing great, but…”
I actually think someone like Raja absolutely deserves minutes
Raja is a vet the young guys can definitely learn from as long as he’s playing well. And same for many of the other vets – Millsap and Watson in particular.
The problem is guys who are not playing well. Howard is not doing what he did early in the season and just hasn’t been the same since his injury. He is one of the guys you could argue is now “stealing minutes.” Those are minutes Burks should take (and probably will start to soon).
Raja was not playing well at the start of the season.
He has stepped up and is playing better now. Kudos to him. But I don’t see his improved game as being vastly superior (or really at all superior) to what we could be getting out of Burks. And at the start of the season, Howard was one of the more consistent players we have. It is kind of depressing that when the vets are playing poorly, they are allowed to play themselves out of it, while the young guys don’t ever really get a chance.
by hamfist on Feb 16, 2012 5:26 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
This is exactly what gets my panties in a wad. The double standard.
by SexualFavors15 on Feb 16, 2012 5:51 PM MST up reply actions
there always has to be a guy with the finger pointed at them
last year, raja, start of the year, raja
now it seems to be harris or howard.
we couldnt be failing as a team could we? nooooo
We are failing as a team. And as a group that put this team together.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
Jazz Committed to Rebuilding the Day DWilll was traded away
Whether or not the front office admits it or not, their actions in trading away DWill spoke louder than words. As Jazz fans we should be fine with rebuilding. The DWill/Boozer era never got it done, so it was time.
That being said, as a small market team the Jazz should be following the OKC model back to relevance. That means the Jazz should:
1) Deal away veteran assets for young assets/draft picks. OKC/Sea let go of their core of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis in order to commit to stockpiling draft picks and letting their youth movement take over. Millsap/Jefferson’s value is probably at its peak. The Jazz should see what kind of draft picks or young players they could get back for them before they walk away for nothing at the end of 2013.
2) Use salary cap space to take on bad contracts. A rebuilding team is able to do this because you are getting your young core through the draft and have them locked up to relatively cheap contracts. OKC/Sea did this twice. OKC acquired Eric Maynor by being willing to take on Matt Harpring’s contract. They also acquired Kurt Thomas from the Suns when they were shedding payroll and in return got paid two draft picks. The Jazz could make similar moves with their Memo trade exception and upcoming salary cap space. (For example, the Mavs need to deal Shawn Marion’s contract either now or in the offseason, in order to clear enough room for D12 and DWIll. In return for taking on the onerous final two years of Marion’s $8.6m/$9.3m deal the Jazz could also require Dallas to pony up Rodrigue Beaubois or draft picks).
3) Get lucky in the Lottery. Empirical evidence overwhelming states that the best NBA players are found toward the top of the draft. It is no coincidence that Magic, Bird, Jordan, Hakeem, Duncan, Shaq etc. etc. have the majority of the championships over the last 30 years. In order to get championship quality players the Jazz need to get lucky and win the draft. The best way to do that is to play the young players and rack up the lottery balls.
by @Peter_J_Novak on Feb 16, 2012 4:36 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
I don't understand why people think we aren't rebuilding.
The list of contending teams is a short one. If you do not have elite players, you are not a contender. The players we have in their current states are not elite. We are not contenders. We need to either figure out how to get elite level players on our team, or develop the ones who have potential to be elite level players. If we aren’t in the small handful of teams that are contending I certainly hope we are rebuilding, because at least then we have a future. If we aren’t contending or rebuilding we are in a bad bad bad place full of awful descriptive words that mostly amount to middle of the road and mediocre.
Amen Brother!
I fear we are going to be stuck in the land of Mediorcrity like the Houston Rockets.
by socaljazzfan on Feb 16, 2012 7:32 PM MST up reply actions
@socalljazzfan
This is the biggest fear I have as well. There is nothing more damning in the NBA then getting stuck in the middle of the pack and not being able to improve via the draft or major free agent signings. Having good players that win 50% of the time should not be the ultimate goal.
Acquiring AlJeff from Minny was a decent risk, to see if he could fill in for Boozer and continue the Jazz’s run at playoff appearances with DWill. It didn’t work out and now we have seen first hand why Minny was so willing to dump his contract on us. AlJeff is a decent player but his limitations defensively require you to put personnel around him that can cover that up. His offense does give you a decent shot to win most games, but I don’t think you can win a playoff series if AlJeff is your best player.
by @Peter_J_Novak on Feb 17, 2012 11:48 AM MST up reply actions
man you are so good at writing
slcdunk rocks
starters
one thing i am preety sure of . if kanter and favors had been starting all year ,wouldn’t have won a game…it’s not teaching them much except how to lose. corbin said from the start he want’s them to learn how to play by watching al and sap. that means in practice they must not do very well. preety sure if you benched al and sap they would’t do much coming off the bench. so if you start kanter and favors you need to trade al and sap. then who comes off the bench? evens and someone you pick up in a trade that would n’t be not as good as sap and al or they wouldn’t be making the trade. if kanter and favors started and really surprised me and were kicking ass what happens when they go to the bench. then everybody would be saying what a idiot they were for trading sap for sure with his 6 mill salary. don’t think you will find much to replace him for less than 6 mil. cain’t see anybody taking on al’s 17 mil
by louisianajazzman on Feb 16, 2012 10:54 PM MST reply actions
How did Kevin Durant going 20-62 in his first years, affect him now? He's on the best team in the West and they win lots of games.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
Where did you see anyone asking for Favors and Kanter to start to begin the season?
I am asking for them to get more minutes now because their play has shown they are ready for it. And they are our future. That’s all.
For what it's worth
In the games that Favors has started this year we are 2-3
The season's not even halfway through
They’re not going to end the year the way they’re playing it now with rotations.
Go Buffalo Bills, Utah Jazz, and Arkansas Razorbacks
OUR KING DOME IS HOLLY GROUND YOU CAN ENTER BUT YOU WILL LEAVE WITH OUT A SOUL - Abayarde, Buffalo Rumblings
@louisianajazzman
Nobody was calling for Kanter to start the year. He is so far removed from organized basketball that he could not be counted on.
Favors on the other hand did start the year and got into early foul trouble against some very good teams. Ty gave up on Favors right away though instead of letting him work through it. The schedule then got much easier and instead of letting Favors play against equivalent or inferior competition we got to see Paul shine.
Locke’s big man +/- numbers that he recently posted, show that Favors in combo with Al or Millsap provide the best +/- of all the bigs. There is a reason for that. It is because Favors is the only big that can give them both a decent amount of offense and defense. He is more gifted athletically than all of the other front court players combined. Favors will either be a franchise cornerstone or he won’t, nobody knows that for sure until he is given extended run.
What we do know is that Al/Millsap are not franchise cornerstones. Continuing to give them starter’s minutes over Favors does not improve this team’s longterm future. Sure, the Jazz may get 5-10 more wins this season but all that does is take you from the 7th pick in the draft (Perry Jones?) to the 13th pick (Tyler Zeller)? So not only do we not find out what Favors potential is and let him improve upon that, we hurt our other potential ways of improvement by lessening the value of our draft prospects.
That is a very shortsighted but major mistake imho.
by @Peter_J_Novak on Feb 17, 2012 11:38 AM MST reply actions
FWIW
I bet we get both the 7th and the 13th pick.
If that’s the case I hope we package them together and get into position to grab Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. If we can’t do that I say we turn the #7 pick into 18 or 19, grab Zeller or Lamb with the 13th, and then take Marshall or Lillard with the later pick.
I think if we moved the 7th pick for a player we might be able to get an expiring player like Gerald Wallace.
Unless the Jazz fall and Warriors rise
Warriors pick is protected thru 7. They need to fall to 8 or more, and realistically we need to see them make a playoff push, because if they are really close to that 8th pick then there is a good chance they sit Curry and their other good players out in order to keep their draft pick this year.
I like MKG a lot and think he could be a good pairing next to Gordon, if Gordon improves his outside shooting that is. MKG has risen lately, but he could be available at around 8 come draft day.
At 10-14ish the Jazz really need to look long and hard at Kendall Marshall. This is a PG weak draft, but pg is the only position on the team without a young player to potentially take over. I’ve watched probably 5-7 NC games and I love the way Marshall distributes the ball. He is an outstanding passer and I think he can be an Andre Miller type player in the NBA, putting up 15 pts and 10 assists.
by @Peter_J_Novak on Feb 17, 2012 5:46 PM MST up reply actions
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