So here we are. Six games left on the schedule, four at home and two on the road. According to Amar, the Jazz need to win five of the six to get into the playoffs. Can that happen? Yes. Is it probable? Based on our record to date, eh...(insert shoulder shrug).
Here's where we are at:
This chart shows that, overall, the Jazz has a record of 18 wins and 7 losses versus teams below 500; it also shows that the Jazz has a record of 7 wins and 11 losses versus teams with records between 499 and 600 - in other words, our team has won 39% of its contests against teams with records between 499 and 600 this year, and has also won 72% of the games where the opposing team has a sub 500 record.
The import of these stats is that four of the six remaining games on the schedule are against teams with records between 499 and 600, while two of the six remaining games are with a sub 500 team.
Okay, so that outlook looks a little bleak, but keep in mind that four of the six remaining games are also at home. Here's another chart showing our home record:
Here you can see that the Jazz has a record of 12 wins 2 losses at home against teams with a record below 500; while the team has recorded 4 wins and 2 losses against teams with a record between 499 and 600. Effectively, the Jazz has won 86% of its games at home against opponents with a sub 500 record, and 67% of its games against opponents with a record between 499 and 600.
The teams that the Jazz play at home are the Mavericks, Magic, Suns, and Trail Blazers. The Jazz are win-less in five games against the Mavs and Suns this year; losing to the Mavs by an average of 8 points in three games, and losing to the Suns by an average of 5.5 points in two games (though, I would point out, the margin in the home losses totaled 3 points against the Mavs and 2 points against the Suns). Clearly the Jazz has its work cut out against these two teams. The match-up with the Magic will be the first of the year for the Jazz; while the Jazz currently has two wins and no losses against the Trail Blazers having won the two games by an average margin of 4.5 points.
Personally, I can see the Jazz taking three out of four home games if everything works out favorably.
Before looking at the away games, here's a look at the Jazz's record on the road:
The remaining games for the Jazz are at Memphis and at Portland. Our team has two wins and no losses against the Grizzlies; having won by an average of 9.5 points in those games. Looking at the chart above, the Jazz has won 6 of its 11 road games against opponents whose record is below 500 (or 55% of the time), and 3 of its 12 road games against opponents whose records fall between 499 and 600 (or 25% of the time).
I believe the Jazz will win at least one of the road games; I'm hoping for two wins.
So is it probable that the Jazz will win five of its next six games? Eh...(more shoulder shrugging). Clearly, my intellect is dizzying.
For those curious to see how the Jazz has fared against Western and Eastern conference teams. The charts below are for you:
Note the Jazz has eight wins and one loss against the sub 500 Eastern teams, and two wins and six losses against the rest of the conference. While the team has ten wins and six losses against sub 500 Western teams, and eleven wins and sixteen losses against the rest of the West.