The formula to win an NBA Championship is simple: At least 1 All-NBA player with at least 2 more All-Stars. Those key players should also be dynamic wings with a dominant big man. It is also very helpful if your key players are playing on rookie contracts. So where does this get us with the Jazz?
The Jazz should trade for Dwight Howard because he is an All NBA
Looking at the All-NBA players I can only really see three that could be playing for the Jazz in the next 1-2 years: Dirk (Dallas decides to start over), Chris Paul (free agent), Howard (on the block).
Chris Paul fits best with our current team and is still in his prime, however, I think our chances are slim because: the Clippers can offer a longer contract, and LA is a bigger market.
Dirk doesn’t fit very well with our team (plays the same position as Favors) and is getting old, however, if the Mavericks decide to start over, we have lots of good trade assets. Once we have Dirk we will have the best chance of retaining him because we can offer the best long term contract.
Dwight Howard fits in very well with our team (Howard, Favors, Hayward, Burks all play different positions) and is still in his prime. Plus we will have a very good shot of retaining him as we will be able to offer a very competitive team and can offer the most money.
The Jazz should trade for Howard even though Derek Favors will be just as good
Yes, Favors can become an All-NBA player but it may take 2-3 years by then Hayward, Favors, Burks, and Kanter won’t be playing on rookie contracts and will be much more expensive. We also may not be able to pay for our other great players namely Evans, Mo.Williams, Ma. Williams, and Millsap.
Also, Derek Favors wants to be a power forward so if we can get the best center to play next to him, why shouldn’t we? That would be the best front court in the NBA.
The Jazz should trade for Howard because they will be able to resign him
If the Jazz trade for Howard, there is a possibility of him walking away after this year. Houston and the Nets have taught us a valuable lesson this year though, if he walks away he has to go somewhere else and there is a good chance they won’t be as desirable.
If the Jazz have Howard, they will be able to offer him more money than any other team. D. Will would have left $25M on the table if he didn’t resign with the Nets. That is a lot of $$$.
The Jazz will also be able to give Howard the best chance at winning a championship. Name a team next year that will have the cap space to sign Howard that will have a better core? Not Atlanta, not Dallas, not Houston, not the Kings.
The Jazz will be at a disadvantage when it comes to the lime light, we always will be. But the big markets, New York, LA, Dallas will either not have the cap space or won’t have the core to surround him.
If we win the trade for Howard we will be in the best spot for resigning him because of money and our core.
What if he refuses to resign with us? We will still be able to get assets back in a sign and trade. But D Will showed us that money matters and we will be able to offer the max.
The Jazz should be able win the trade bidding war
The trade rumors out there are Houston and LA.
Houston is offering a big expiring contract, young players, draft picks and taking back Hedo’s contract. There was talk about taking back two bad contracts but with Lin and Omer’s contracts not being matched, I think they can only take back Hedo’s contract at most.
Utah could also take back Hedo’s contract, offer bigger expiring contracts (Jefferson, Watson, Bell, Millsap), could offer better young prospects (Kanter or Burks), and could offer future draft picks, GSW 1st round pick, 2014 protected 1st round pick.
LA is offering Andrew Bynum. However the Magic have shown reservations because Bynum hasn’t agreed to an extension. The rumor today is that Clevland is in the mix sending Varejo and draft picks to the Magic, and getting Bynum. They aren’t even taking back a bad contract.
Utah could offer a much better deal.
I would like any of the following deals:
Al, Kanter, Raja (and buyout money), Watson, $2.3M TPE, GSW 1st Round Pick, and 2014 1st Round Pick for Hedo/Howard.
Al, Millsap, Raja (and buyout money), $2.3M TPE, and GSW 1st Round Pick, for Hedo/Howard.
Millsap, Kanter, Raja (and buyout money), $2.3M TPE, GSW 1st Round Pick, and 2014 1st Round Pick for Howard.
I think any of these deals are better than what Houston and LA are offering.
Do the Jazz have a contender?
Do they meet the three criteria I listed above?
At least 1 All-NBA player with at least 2 more All-Stars
They would have Dwight Howard (All NBA) and 7 other players with the potential to be All-Stars (they only need two of them to be All-Stars remember).
Favors, Hayward, Millsap have the most potential. Millsap was almost there last year and I think he would play really well with Howard. I think it is Millsap’s best possible front court match. Favors and Hayward are due for their 2nd-3rd year jump (last year doesn't count)
Burks and Kanter also have the potential to be an All-Star.
Finally, although I don’t think it likely, I think both Mo and Marvin Williams could be All-Stars. Mo was before when he was paired with an All-NBA player and Marvin could have just been in a bad situation.
Again, we only need 2 all-stars out of the 7.
Two dynamic wings with a dominant big man
Both Howard and Favors qualify as the big man and I think Hayward and Burks have real potential to be the dominant wings.
Key players on rookie contracts
Favors, Burks, Hayward and Kanter will all be on those great contracts.
In addition to what I mentioned before, I also think that the Jazz would benefit from outside shooting (Marvin Williams, Mo Williams, Murphy). If we had this line up Favors and Howard would make Murphy look like a steal.
I think Jeremy Evans would also do very well as the 4th big man. He has shown us he is very efficient and plays very well against the second string. He would be a great role player.
Sorry to keep beating a dead horse.