Statistical Analysis: Marvin Williams, Josh Howard, C.J. Miles, and Andrei Kirilenko (2009-10 to Present day)

ATLANTA - NOVEMBER 12: Marvin Williams #24 of the Atlanta Hawks drives around Andrei Kirilenko #47 of the Utah Jazz at Philips Arena on November 12 2010 in Atlanta Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that by downloading and/or using this Photograph User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The Utah Jazz made two trades, and may have also settled the fate of a number of Jazz free agents. Jazz Gm Kevin O'Connor moved a trade exception (Mehmet Okur trade) for the Los Angeles Clippers Mo Williams; and then moved Devin Harris to the Atlanta Hawks for (at the very least) Marvin Williams. Two wings from last season are Unrestricted Free Agents: C.J. Miles and Josh Howard. Furthermore, the Jazz still own Andrei Kirilenko's bird rights. Kirilenko, Miles, and Howard were all wings that have played playoff games for the team. They appear to be effectively replaced by the addition of Marvin Williams.

How do they all measure against one another? Well, I did a simple statistical analysis of their play over the last three seasons. Furthermore, I also look at their most recently completed season as well. So the following numbers will include a value that is the aggregate sum (or average where necessary) from 2009-10 season till the 2011-12 season. And some of the numbers will just be from last season.

Situation:

Why am I even discussing Marvin and his performance with that of two former All-Stars in Andrei and Josh, and a career bench guy in C.J.? Well, I guess it starts with the fact that they all have (or will have) been guys to start for the Jazz. Or alternatively, come off the bench for the Jazz. These dudes, if on the Jazz today, would have to be content with 20-30 mins a game -- mostly off the bench. Marvin IS the dude who'll be on the team next year for sure. CJ may be going to Dallas. Josh to who knows where. Andrei . . . well, I guess New Jersey? Miami? I really can't say.

Marvin looks to be the guy to take the lion's share of the minutes that (presumably) Josh and C.J. will be leaving on the table. He's a very interesting player because he's big (6'8, 245 lb), but still a wing. So he's Andrei's height, but with the appropriate muscle mass for a man his size. He used to be crazy athletic, but he doesn't have that closing speed or extension that Kirilenko has. Josh Howard is also pretty long. The numbers on Marvin is that he DOES have a 7'3.5" wingspan. So, well, I'm happy with that.

I'll go into the qualitative analysis later, but right now, the situation is that Marvin is in. He's in over Andrei, Josh, and C.J. Let's look at the quantitative numbers from last year, and the last three years.

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The Numbers:

Percentages Per Game Advanced Passing Other
G MPG PPG FG% FT% 3PT% FGA FTA 3PTM PPS MPS eFG% APG TOPG A:TO RPG SPG BPG
Marvin 2009-2012 203 28.7 10.2 . 44.9% 81.9% 34.5% . 8.7 2.6 0.7 . 1.17 3.29 49.0% . 1.2 0.9 1.5 . 4.9 0.7 0.4
Williams Last Season 57 26.3 10.2 . 43.2% 78.8% 38.9% . 8.2 2.6 1.0 . 1.23 3.19 49.4% . 1.2 0.7 1.8 . 4.8 0.8 0.3
Josh 2009-2012 96 24.1 10.1 . 39.6% 75.3% 24.1% . 9.5 2.9 0.4 . 1.06 2.54 41.8% . 1.3 1.2 1.0 . 3.7 0.7 0.3
Howard Last Season 43 23.0 8.7 . 39.9% 77.3% 24.3% . 8.4 2.3 0.2 . 1.03 2.75 41.1% . 1.2 1.2 0.9 . 3.7 0.7 0.2
C.J. 2009-2012
197 23.4 10.8 . 40.7% 78.0% 32.4% . 9.8 2.2 1.2 . 1.11 2.39 46.7% . 1.6 1.2 1.4 . 2.7 0.9 0.4
Miles Last Season 56 20.4 9.1 . 38.1% 79.4% 30.7% . 8.3 2.4 0.8 . 1.09 2.46 43.0% . 1.2 0.9 1.3 . 2.1 0.8 0.3
Andrei 2009-2011* 139 30.1 12.1 . 49.1% 75.8% 34.9% . 8.3 4.3 0.6 . 1.45 3.61 52.6% . 2.8 1.6 1.8 . 5.2 1.4 1.3
Kirilenko Last Seas* 17 29.9 14.1 . 53.3% 75.8% 41.7% . 7.9 5.8 1.2 . 1.77 3.77 60.7% . 2.4 1.5 1.6 . 7.5 1.5 1.9

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What this says:

What this says, clearly, is that Andrei Kirilenko is still the best player. (And I separated his Euro stats from this last year from his NBA stats, and his NBA stats are STILL superior) There is no way that Andrei is going to come to Utah as his asking price will be much higher than what the team would be willing to spend.

Beyond Kirilenko-philia, it does also show that Marvin is pretty good. He is #2 ranked in mins, PPG, fg%, 3pt%, FTA/game, PPS, eFG%, assists to turn over ratio, rebounds, and blocks. He's #1 in FT%. Being second best in basically everything when the top guy is, well, a borderline HOF guy (a few more big international tournament wins and he's in as a Euro player).

He shot great from deep last year, and still managed to get to the line about 3 times a game. He is a very efficient scorer (as his PPS last season was above average), and did not turn the ball over. More than that, he is better than Josh at what Josh was good at (rebounds), and made more threes per game than C.J. did (that thing C.J. was supposed to be great at).

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Shot Locations (2011-12):

Well, there's no Data for Andrei for this, and that sucks because I'd have loved to have seen his shot distributions per location. I was going to show this graphically but decided against it. More tables!

Shot Location Marvin Williams Josh Howard C.J. Miles
FGM FGA % FGA/Gm FGM FGA % FGA/Gm FGM FGA % FGA/Gm
Above the break three . 25 69 36.2% 1.2 . 6 29 20.7% 0.7 . 37 116 31.9% 2.1
Corner three . 32 79 40.5% 1.4 . 3 7 42.9% 0.2 . 9 31 29.0% 0.6
Mid-Range . 47 132 35.6% 2.3 . 59 178 33.1% 4.1 . 28 106 26.4% 1.9
In the Paint . 9 24 37.5% 0.4 . 22 59 37.3% 1.4 . 19 66 28.8% 1.2
Restricted Area . 89 165 53.9% 2.9 . 54 87 62.1% 2.0 . 84 143 58.7% 2.6
Total . 202 469 43.1% 8.2 . 144 360 40.0% 8.4 . 177 462 38.3% 8.3
Free Throws . 115 146 78.8% 2.6 . 75 97 77.3% 2.3 . 108 136 79.4% 2.4

Well, CJ took a lot of threes. Josh took a lot of mid-range jumpers. Marvin got a lot of shots up near the rim. I like how Marvin does do well from that Corner spot (dare I say it -- another one of those Tier III three point shooters? We need those!). More than just shooting, that's important is making shots.

Marvin was #1 in mid-range %, in the paint, and over-all from three. He was #2 in FT% as well. Good stuff Marvin.

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Defense:

Here are the defensive rankings and stats from MySynergySports.com. You should check them out. They are the best. anyway . . . this is broken down into Isolation, Hand Off, Pick and Roll, Off of Screens, Spot ups, Post ups, and overall.

Play Type Player # of Def Pos % of time on D PPP NBA Rank Opp. FG%
Isolation M.Williams 84 21.0% . 0.84 226 36.4%
C.J.Miles 53 15.5% . 0.72 102 28.6%
J.Howard 50 17.2% . 0.76 134 39.5%
Hand Off M.Williams 22 5.5% . 0.64 - 28.6%
C.J.Miles 16 4.7% . 0.81 - 38.5%
J.Howard 17 5.8% . 0.82 - 43.8%
P&R Ball Handler M.Williams 47 11.8% . 0.62 20 28.2%
C.J.Miles 50 14.7% . 1.04 217 51.3%
J.Howard 63 21.6% . 0.97 206 61.0%
P&R Roll Man M.Williams 11 2.8% . 0.64 - 27.3%
C.J.Miles 15 4.4% . 0.87 - 41.7%
J.Howard 10 3.4% . 0.60 - 33.3%
Play Type Player # of Def Pos % of time on D PPP NBA Rank Opp. FG%
Off Screen M.Williams 51 12.8% . 1.00 125 45.7%
C.J.Miles 56 16.4% . 0.82 52 39.1%
J.Howard 31 10.7% . 1.26 169 51.7%
Spot-Up M.Williams 119 29.8% . 1.00 251 41.3%
C.J.Miles 115 33.7% . 0.91 147 33.3%
J.Howard 90 30.9% . 0.74 31 28.0%
Post-Up M.Williams 66 16.5% . 0.74 65 37.3%
C.J.Miles 33 9.7% . 0.82 123 46.2%
J.Howard 30 10.3% . 1.00 238 46.2%
Overall M.Williams 400 100.0% . 0.86 239 37.5%
C.J.Miles 341 100.0% . 0.86 239 38.1%
J.Howard 291 100.0% . 0.88 279 41.6%

The average rankings on defense are: CJ#146.7, Marvin #154.4, and Josh #176.2. So, even though no one will believe it, CJ is much better on defense than people give him credit for. Overall, Josh was the worst. Marvin faced the most defensive possessions. He was the worst when being isolated against. But he was solid against hand offs, and pick and rolls (ball handler or roll man). Miles was one of the best in the NBA against guys off of screens, and Josh against guys spotting up. Marvin was one of the best wings against post ups.

I'm more interested in wings defending Spot ups and Off screens than post ups though. The fact that Marvin gets eaten alive off of isolations makes me worry. I don't know how he can be so good defending the ball handler on the pick and roll though, while being so poor off of isolations. Doesn't make sense. I'd say Marvin is better at defending SF/PFs, while the other two are better at defending SF/SGs. CJ in particular. He will be missed, even if most fans did not see his positive contributions.

While Marvin isn't a lock down defender, he is still a solid rebounder. We can always use defending rebounding from the wings. Marvin does help us here.

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Money:

Marvin makes over $8 million a year, and will make $7.5 million in 2013/14. That said, with the way money is going around this year, Andrei Kirilenko would be making a few million more on the open market. (If Caron Butler makes $8m a year, and Nicolas Batum will make like $11m . . . .Andrei isn't going to be any cheaper than he could be) Andrei is better, but there's no way we would have given him what he is worth.

Josh would be much cheaper, but he kinda sucks. The numbers back me up. Miles would be a bit more expensive, but I think the Jazz are done with him, for better or for worse. The Jazz needed to move Devin Harris because his camp was unhappy with the Mo Williams addition. Marvin was gained through the necessary subtraction. Is Marvin worth $8 million a year? I don't think so. Is $8 million a year too much to pay for a guy to come off the bench? Probably not in this new era of the NBA. Does that make it right? Nope.

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Well ?

Well, Andrei is still the best, but we already knew that. Marvin is interesting in that he rebounds and hits the corner three. He presents different challenges on defense, but he makes his free throws. More than anything, he creates allosteric competition for Josh Howard and a potential Josh Howard resigning. So, yeah, sign me up for that. Furthermore, we are no longer carrying four PGs who could actually still start. Good move KOC.

Marvin, welcome to the Jazz! (We're now only 3 players away from 2005 NBA Draft Top 5 Bingo)

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