FanPost

New Point Guard Stats Comparison

For years the Deron Williams vs Chris Paul debate has been a hot topic. Which point guard is better? Sadly, I’m not here to answer that question, but rather to get your hopes up then crush them mercilessly (said in best Bane voice impersonation). However, I do have 3 stats of my own making (with the aid of the SLC Dunk community). Here I’ve put them all into tables comparing them to a known stat, Hollinger’s Pure Point Rating. What these stats are and LOTS of tables after the jump.

First off, what is Pure Point Rating? Well, I’ll let Hollinger speak for himself.

"Coaches and personnel people almost instinctively look to a player’s assist/turnover ratio to check how he’s doing. But ask them why they look at assist/turnover ratio, and you’ll get lots of blank stares and convoluted answers. Probe further, asking if they think Reggie Miller would make a better point guard than Steve Nash, and you’ll quickly get a series of guffaws. But guess who had the better assist/turnover ratio last year?"

"What it really means is almost nothing, because assist/turnover ratio is a flawed stat. The problem isn’t with "assist" or "turnover," it’s with the "ratio." Using a ratio is faulty for two reasons. First, it assumes assists and turnovers are equal, when in fact a turnover is more costly than an assist is helpful."

"Second, it equates very different amounts of productivity. If Player A just sits in the corner all season and finishes with three assists and one turnover, while Player B directs the offense all year and has 300 assists and 101 turnovers, then according to assist/turnover ratio, we should assume that Player A is "better" at running the offense."

"First, it adjusts for the fact that assists do less good than turnovers do harm by multiplying assists by two-thirds. There’s a factual basis in this. As I noted in a recent column, of the three acts of creating the basket (getting open, making the pass and making the shot), the passer does one. So we give him one-third of the credit of a 2-point basket, or about two-thirds of a point. Since turnovers cost almost exactly one point (teams average about 1.02 points per possession), we needn’t make any adjustments to that part of the equation.

The second adjustment is measuring productivity, to avoid the Player A vs. Player B situation above. The way to do this is to sum a player’s accomplishments on a per-minute basis, then adjust them for his team’s pace. Finally, multiply the end result by 100 to make the numbers more user-friendly." – John Hollinger

Here is Hollinger's equation

PPR = 100/Minutes*LeaguePace/TeamPace*(assists*2/3-Turnovers)

Now the question is, why/how are my stats better/more useful/different? To start off I’ll list some of the limitations to the PPR stat:

1) It is a per-100 minute stat. Last I checked, no one played a 100 minute game

2) It equates all assists equal

3) It equates all turnovers equal

To fix these problems, I first made all of the stats per-36 minutes (and pace adjusted still).

To fix the second problem I created a thing that I call assist value. I used the data from hoopdata.com where they split up assists into 5 categories based upon where the shot comes from: at-the-rim, 3-9 feet, 10-15 feet, 16-23 feet, and 3-pt. Hollinger used the 2/3 number because the point guard just made the pass which is 1/3 of the effort for the 2-points. However, when a player makes a pass at-the-rim, it usually involved them drawing the attention off of their teammate making them inherently involved in getting their teammate open. Also, at-the-rim assists come with a lot of and-1s. To compensate for this I assigned the number 1.1 for all at-the-rim assists (50% of the score plus an and-1 adjustment). The same exists for 3-pt shots assists. Hollinger still only gives 2/3 which isn’t even the value that they deserve in his system! Since a 3-pt assist usually comes from a drive-and-kick action, a post-up that is double teamed, or other like plays, the passer is once again inherently involved in getting their teammate open and thus deserves 50% of the credit. To adjust for this, 3-pt assists were given the value of 1.5. Mid-range assists usually involve little other than the pass made by the ball handler, so I left the value at Hollinger’s 2/3.

To fix the final problem I have presented 3 variations on my stat. PPR2 Removes all turnovers other than bad passes from the equation. This stat tells us how many points a player creates for his teammates by his passing skills alone. Here is the equation

PPR2 = 36/Minutes *LeaguePace/TeamPace*(assist*assistvalue – badpass)

PPR3, my personal favorite, accounts for bad passes as well as turnovers likely generated from creating shots for others. Not all ball handling turnovers come from trying to set up a teammate, nor do they all come from scoring. To compensate for this I used the ratio of assists to total assists and field goal attempts (including free throw attempts). This stat tell how many points a player created for his teammates with his ball handling and passing skills in 36 minutes of play. Here is the equation.

PPR3 = 36/Minutes*LeaguePace/TeamPace*(assist*assistvalue-badpass-assist/(assist+fga)*ballTO)

Lastly, PPR4 is Hollinger’s stat but only adjusted for assist value. One might say that this stat measures how much a player disrupts or aids the offensive flow of the game. Here is the equation.

PPR4 = 36/Minutes*LeaguePace/TeamPace*(assist*assistvalue-TO)

What I would like to hear from you, the reader of this huge text and stat block post, is to decide which one you like and why. Also, feel free to suggest changes to them. Now, enjoy these 4 stats for every starting point guard in the league compared to each other. Also, std diff is the number of standard deviations they are from the average.

PPR vs PPR2

Rank Player PPR std diff Rank Player PPR2 std diff
1 Jose Calderon 11.82 2.18 1 Steve Nash 9.05 2.00
2 Rajon Rondo 11.37 2.04 2 Rajon Rondo 8.97 1.95
3 Chris paul 11.17 1.97 3 Chris paul 8.66 1.76
4 Steve Nash 10.74 1.83 4 Jose Calderon 8.11 1.44
5 Tony Parker 7.96 0.92 5 Tony Parker 7.74 1.22
6 Mike Conley 6.68 0.51 6 Ricky Rubio 7.16 0.88
7 Ricky Rubio 6.48 0.44 7 Deron Williams 6.97 0.77
8 Derrick Rose 6.38 0.41 8 Jameer Nelson 6.85 0.70
9 Jason Kidd 6.16 0.34 9 John Wall 6.46 0.46
10 Jarrett Jack 5.68 0.18 10 Jeremy Lin 6.37 0.41
11 Ty Lawson 5.40 0.09 11 Derrick Rose 6.21 0.32
12 Deron Williams 5.21 0.03 12 Ty Lawson 5.88 0.12
13 Ramon Sessions 5.16 0.01 13 Goran Dragic 5.84 0.10
14 Devin Harris 5.09 -0.01 14 Kyle Lowry 5.80 0.07
15 Kyle Lowry 5.06 -0.02 15 Raymond Felton 5.73 0.04
16 Jameer Nelson 4.91 -0.07 16 Ramon Sessions 5.31 -0.21
17 Raymond Felton 4.73 -0.13 17 Stephen Curry 5.27 -0.24
18 Goran Dragic 4.38 -0.24 18 Mike Conley 5.18 -0.29
19 Isaiah Thomas 4.21 -0.30 19 Jarrett Jack 5.18 -0.29
20 Darren Collison 4.15 -0.32 20 Jason Kidd 5.06 -0.36
21 Kemba Walker 4.12 -0.32 21 Devin Harris 4.97 -0.41
22 Brandon Jennings 4.07 -0.34 22 Jeff Teague 4.80 -0.51
23 John Wall 4.07 -0.34 23 Isaiah Thomas 4.68 -0.58
24 Jeff Teague 3.71 -0.46 24 Darren Collison 4.32 -0.79
25 Stephen Curry 3.65 -0.48 25 Russell Westbrook 4.32 -0.80
26 Jrue Holiday 2.70 -0.79 26 Brandon Jennings 4.31 -0.80
27 Jeremy Lin 1.88 -1.06 27 Kyrie Irving 3.87 -1.06
28 Kyrie Irving 1.50 -1.18 28 Kemba Walker 3.79 -1.11
29 Mario Chalmers 0.33 -1.56 29 Jrue Holiday 3.43 -1.32
30 Russell Westbrook 0.10 -1.63 30 Mario Chalmers 2.82 -1.68
31 Brandon Knight -0.18 -1.72 31 Brandon Knight 2.66 -1.78

PPR vs PPR3

Rank Player PPR std diff Rank Player PPR3 std diff
1 Jose Calderon 11.82 2.18 1 Steve Nash 8.57 1.97
2 Rajon Rondo 11.37 2.04 2 Rajon Rondo 8.52 1.94
3 Chris paul 11.17 1.97 3 Chris paul 8.38 1.86
4 Steve Nash 10.74 1.83 4 Jose Calderon 7.79 1.49
5 Tony Parker 7.96 0.92 5 Tony Parker 7.37 1.24
6 Mike Conley 6.68 0.51 6 Ricky Rubio 6.76 0.87
7 Ricky Rubio 6.48 0.44 7 Deron Williams 6.62 0.78
8 Derrick Rose 6.38 0.41 8 Jameer Nelson 6.43 0.67
9 Jason Kidd 6.16 0.34 9 John Wall 6.00 0.41
10 Jarrett Jack 5.68 0.18 10 Derrick Rose 5.86 0.32
11 Ty Lawson 5.40 0.09 11 Jeremy Lin 5.74 0.25
12 Deron Williams 5.21 0.03 12 Ty Lawson 5.63 0.18
13 Ramon Sessions 5.16 0.01 13 Kyle Lowry 5.45 0.07
14 Devin Harris 5.09 -0.01 14 Raymond Felton 5.41 0.05
15 Kyle Lowry 5.06 -0.02 15 Goran Dragic 5.34 0.00
16 Jameer Nelson 4.91 -0.07 16 Ramon Sessions 4.99 -0.21
17 Raymond Felton 4.73 -0.13 17 Stephen Curry 4.92 -0.25
18 Goran Dragic 4.38 -0.24 18 Mike Conley 4.86 -0.29
19 Isaiah Thomas 4.21 -0.30 19 Jarrett Jack 4.81 -0.32
20 Darren Collison 4.15 -0.32 20 Jason Kidd 4.78 -0.33
21 Kemba Walker 4.12 -0.32 21 Devin Harris 4.74 -0.36
22 Brandon Jennings 4.07 -0.34 22 Jeff Teague 4.50 -0.50
23 John Wall 4.07 -0.34 23 Isaiah Thomas 4.39 -0.57
24 Jeff Teague 3.71 -0.46 24 Brandon Jennings 4.10 -0.75
25 Stephen Curry 3.65 -0.48 25 Darren Collison 4.05 -0.78
26 Jrue Holiday 2.70 -0.79 26 Russell Westbrook 4.02 -0.80
27 Jeremy Lin 1.88 -1.06 27 Kemba Walker 3.58 -1.07
28 Kyrie Irving 1.50 -1.18 28 Kyrie Irving 3.50 -1.11
29 Mario Chalmers 0.33 -1.56 29 Jrue Holiday 3.22 -1.28
30 Russell Westbrook 0.10 -1.63 30 Mario Chalmers 2.55 -1.70
31 Brandon Knight -0.18 -1.72 31 Brandon Knight 2.42 -1.77

PPR vs PPR4

Rank Player PPR std diff Rank Player PPR4 std diff
1 Jose Calderon 11.82 2.18 1 Steve Nash 8.13 2.09
2 Rajon Rondo 11.37 2.04 2 Rajon Rondo 7.87 1.94
3 Chris paul 11.17 1.97 3 Chris paul 7.69 1.84
4 Steve Nash 10.74 1.83 4 Jose Calderon 7.40 1.68
5 Tony Parker 7.96 0.92 5 Tony Parker 6.43 1.14
6 Mike Conley 6.68 0.51 6 Ricky Rubio 6.20 1.00
7 Ricky Rubio 6.48 0.44 7 Jameer Nelson 5.51 0.62
8 Derrick Rose 6.38 0.41 8 Deron Williams 5.51 0.62
9 Jason Kidd 6.16 0.34 9 Ty Lawson 4.78 0.20
10 Jarrett Jack 5.68 0.18 10 Derrick Rose 4.74 0.18
11 Ty Lawson 5.40 0.09 11 John Wall 4.65 0.14
12 Deron Williams 5.21 0.03 12 Raymond Felton 4.54 0.07
13 Ramon Sessions 5.16 0.01 13 Jason Kidd 4.46 0.03
14 Devin Harris 5.09 -0.01 14 Kyle Lowry 4.42 0.00
15 Kyle Lowry 5.06 -0.02 15 Ramon Sessions 4.22 -0.11
16 Jameer Nelson 4.91 -0.07 16 Mike Conley 4.19 -0.12
17 Raymond Felton 4.73 -0.13 17 Jeremy Lin 4.11 -0.17
18 Goran Dragic 4.38 -0.24 18 Stephen Curry 4.00 -0.23
19 Isaiah Thomas 4.21 -0.30 19 Goran Dragic 4.00 -0.23
20 Darren Collison 4.15 -0.32 20 Devin Harris 3.98 -0.25
21 Kemba Walker 4.12 -0.32 21 Jarrett Jack 3.79 -0.35
22 Brandon Jennings 4.07 -0.34 22 Isaiah Thomas 3.66 -0.42
23 John Wall 4.07 -0.34 23 Jeff Teague 3.53 -0.50
24 Jeff Teague 3.71 -0.46 24 Darren Collison 3.34 -0.60
25 Stephen Curry 3.65 -0.48 25 Brandon Jennings 3.32 -0.62
26 Jrue Holiday 2.70 -0.79 26 Kemba Walker 2.84 -0.88
27 Jeremy Lin 1.88 -1.06 27 Jrue Holiday 2.40 -1.13
28 Kyrie Irving 1.50 -1.18 28 Russell Westbrook 2.30 -1.19
29 Mario Chalmers 0.33 -1.56 29 Kyrie Irving 1.96 -1.38
30 Russell Westbrook 0.10 -1.63 30 Mario Chalmers 1.53 -1.62
31 Brandon Knight -0.18 -1.72 31 Brandon Knight 1.33 -1.73

Next up, PPR2 vs PPR3

Rank Player PPR2 std diff Rank Player PPR3 std diff
1 Steve Nash 9.05 2.00 1 Steve Nash 8.57 1.97
2 Rajon Rondo 8.97 1.95 2 Rajon Rondo 8.52 1.94
3 Chris paul 8.66 1.76 3 Chris paul 8.38 1.86
4 Jose Calderon 8.11 1.44 4 Jose Calderon 7.79 1.49
5 Tony Parker 7.74 1.22 5 Tony Parker 7.37 1.24
6 Ricky Rubio 7.16 0.88 6 Ricky Rubio 6.76 0.87
7 Deron Williams 6.97 0.77 7 Deron Williams 6.62 0.78
8 Jameer Nelson 6.85 0.70 8 Jameer Nelson 6.43 0.67
9 John Wall 6.46 0.46 9 John Wall 6.00 0.41
10 Jeremy Lin 6.37 0.41 10 Derrick Rose 5.86 0.32
11 Derrick Rose 6.21 0.32 11 Jeremy Lin 5.74 0.25
12 Ty Lawson 5.88 0.12 12 Ty Lawson 5.63 0.18
13 Goran Dragic 5.84 0.10 13 Kyle Lowry 5.45 0.07
14 Kyle Lowry 5.80 0.07 14 Raymond Felton 5.41 0.05
15 Raymond Felton 5.73 0.04 15 Goran Dragic 5.34 0.00
16 Ramon Sessions 5.31 -0.21 16 Ramon Sessions 4.99 -0.21
17 Stephen Curry 5.27 -0.24 17 Stephen Curry 4.92 -0.25
18 Mike Conley 5.18 -0.29 18 Mike Conley 4.86 -0.29
19 Jarrett Jack 5.18 -0.29 19 Jarrett Jack 4.81 -0.32
20 Jason Kidd 5.06 -0.36 20 Jason Kidd 4.78 -0.33
21 Devin Harris 4.97 -0.41 21 Devin Harris 4.74 -0.36
22 Jeff Teague 4.80 -0.51 22 Jeff Teague 4.50 -0.50
23 Isaiah Thomas 4.68 -0.58 23 Isaiah Thomas 4.39 -0.57
24 Darren Collison 4.32 -0.79 24 Brandon Jennings 4.10 -0.75
25 Russell Westbrook 4.32 -0.80 25 Darren Collison 4.05 -0.78
26 Brandon Jennings 4.31 -0.80 26 Russell Westbrook 4.02 -0.80
27 Kyrie Irving 3.87 -1.06 27 Kemba Walker 3.58 -1.07
28 Kemba Walker 3.79 -1.11 28 Kyrie Irving 3.50 -1.11
29 Jrue Holiday 3.43 -1.32 29 Jrue Holiday 3.22 -1.28
30 Mario Chalmers 2.82 -1.68 30 Mario Chalmers 2.55 -1.70
31 Brandon Knight 2.66 -1.78 31 Brandon Knight 2.42 -1.77

Now PPR2 vs PPR4

Rank Player PPR2 std diff Rank Player PPR4 std diff
1 Steve Nash 9.05 2.00 1 Steve Nash 8.13 2.09
2 Rajon Rondo 8.97 1.95 2 Rajon Rondo 7.87 1.94
3 Chris paul 8.66 1.76 3 Chris paul 7.69 1.84
4 Jose Calderon 8.11 1.44 4 Jose Calderon 7.40 1.68
5 Tony Parker 7.74 1.22 5 Tony Parker 6.43 1.14
6 Ricky Rubio 7.16 0.88 6 Ricky Rubio 6.20 1.00
7 Deron Williams 6.97 0.77 7 Jameer Nelson 5.51 0.62
8 Jameer Nelson 6.85 0.70 8 Deron Williams 5.51 0.62
9 John Wall 6.46 0.46 9 Ty Lawson 4.78 0.20
10 Jeremy Lin 6.37 0.41 10 Derrick Rose 4.74 0.18
11 Derrick Rose 6.21 0.32 11 John Wall 4.65 0.14
12 Ty Lawson 5.88 0.12 12 Raymond Felton 4.54 0.07
13 Goran Dragic 5.84 0.10 13 Jason Kidd 4.46 0.03
14 Kyle Lowry 5.80 0.07 14 Kyle Lowry 4.42 0.00
15 Raymond Felton 5.73 0.04 15 Ramon Sessions 4.22 -0.11
16 Ramon Sessions 5.31 -0.21 16 Mike Conley 4.19 -0.12
17 Stephen Curry 5.27 -0.24 17 Jeremy Lin 4.11 -0.17
18 Mike Conley 5.18 -0.29 18 Stephen Curry 4.00 -0.23
19 Jarrett Jack 5.18 -0.29 19 Goran Dragic 4.00 -0.23
20 Jason Kidd 5.06 -0.36 20 Devin Harris 3.98 -0.25
21 Devin Harris 4.97 -0.41 21 Jarrett Jack 3.79 -0.35
22 Jeff Teague 4.80 -0.51 22 Isaiah Thomas 3.66 -0.42
23 Isaiah Thomas 4.68 -0.58 23 Jeff Teague 3.53 -0.50
24 Darren Collison 4.32 -0.79 24 Darren Collison 3.34 -0.60
25 Russell Westbrook 4.32 -0.80 25 Brandon Jennings 3.32 -0.62
26 Brandon Jennings 4.31 -0.80 26 Kemba Walker 2.84 -0.88
27 Kyrie Irving 3.87 -1.06 27 Jrue Holiday 2.40 -1.13
28 Kemba Walker 3.79 -1.11 28 Russell Westbrook 2.30 -1.19
29 Jrue Holiday 3.43 -1.32 29 Kyrie Irving 1.96 -1.38
30 Mario Chalmers 2.82 -1.68 30 Mario Chalmers 1.53 -1.62
31 Brandon Knight 2.66 -1.78 31 Brandon Knight 1.33 -1.73

Lastly PPR3 vs PPR4

Rank Player PPR3 std diff Rank Player PPR4 std diff
1 Steve Nash 8.57 1.97 1 Steve Nash 8.13 2.09
2 Rajon Rondo 8.52 1.94 2 Rajon Rondo 7.87 1.94
3 Chris paul 8.38 1.86 3 Chris paul 7.69 1.84
4 Jose Calderon 7.79 1.49 4 Jose Calderon 7.40 1.68
5 Tony Parker 7.37 1.24 5 Tony Parker 6.43 1.14
6 Ricky Rubio 6.76 0.87 6 Ricky Rubio 6.20 1.00
7 Deron Williams 6.62 0.78 7 Jameer Nelson 5.51 0.62
8 Jameer Nelson 6.43 0.67 8 Deron Williams 5.51 0.62
9 John Wall 6.00 0.41 9 Ty Lawson 4.78 0.20
10 Derrick Rose 5.86 0.32 10 Derrick Rose 4.74 0.18
11 Jeremy Lin 5.74 0.25 11 John Wall 4.65 0.14
12 Ty Lawson 5.63 0.18 12 Raymond Felton 4.54 0.07
13 Kyle Lowry 5.45 0.07 13 Jason Kidd 4.46 0.03
14 Raymond Felton 5.41 0.05 14 Kyle Lowry 4.42 0.00
15 Goran Dragic 5.34 0.00 15 Ramon Sessions 4.22 -0.11
16 Ramon Sessions 4.99 -0.21 16 Mike Conley 4.19 -0.12
17 Stephen Curry 4.92 -0.25 17 Jeremy Lin 4.11 -0.17
18 Mike Conley 4.86 -0.29 18 Stephen Curry 4.00 -0.23
19 Jarrett Jack 4.81 -0.32 19 Goran Dragic 4.00 -0.23
20 Jason Kidd 4.78 -0.33 20 Devin Harris 3.98 -0.25
21 Devin Harris 4.74 -0.36 21 Jarrett Jack 3.79 -0.35
22 Jeff Teague 4.50 -0.50 22 Isaiah Thomas 3.66 -0.42
23 Isaiah Thomas 4.39 -0.57 23 Jeff Teague 3.53 -0.50
24 Brandon Jennings 4.10 -0.75 24 Darren Collison 3.34 -0.60
25 Darren Collison 4.05 -0.78 25 Brandon Jennings 3.32 -0.62
26 Russell Westbrook 4.02 -0.80 26 Kemba Walker 2.84 -0.88
27 Kemba Walker 3.58 -1.07 27 Jrue Holiday 2.40 -1.13
28 Kyrie Irving 3.50 -1.11 28 Russell Westbrook 2.30 -1.19
29 Jrue Holiday 3.22 -1.28 29 Kyrie Irving 1.96 -1.38
30 Mario Chalmers 2.55 -1.70 30 Mario Chalmers 1.53 -1.62
31 Brandon Knight 2.42 -1.77 31 Brandon Knight 1.33 -1.73

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.

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