I was playing around with numbers in Excel again today and decided to see what the records of the last seven finalists looked like for the 10 years before they played in the Finals. From, the numbers, it looks like the Jazz are primed to win the 2014/2015 Finals. Why below.
First I worked out what the average winning and losing percentage of each finalist was for each year up to 10 years before, then I averaged them out and graphed it against years (10 being the year they played the final)
Then I added the Jazz winning percentage, assuming this was either year 7 or year 8.
From this graph it looks like we are tracking accurately the 'Winners of Final' percentage pretty closely if we are aiming for 2014/2015. Here is those two lines without the others.
Very close. OK, so we only just made the playoffs this year, how does that compare to other finals winning teams? I allocated a score of 1-6 for each of the winning finalists (1 - win finals, 2 - lose finals, 3 - lose conference final, 4 - lose semi final, 5 - lose first round, 6 - not make playoffs) averaged it out and compared that to the Jazz.
The average finals winner was a first round loser 3 years from winning it all. The Jazz were a first round loser this year. If we continue on this path we will be (approximately) a semi final loser this season, a conference final loser in 13/14, and finally, the NBA Champions in 14/15.
Booking my tickets now.