Utah Jazz 2012-13 Minutes Distribution:
Yup, we're going to be here for a while tonight . . .
Part 4 -- The Bigmen
The Bigman Problem:
Unlike the problem with point guards, or wings, there are no Raja Bells or Jamaal Tinsleys in this group. Every single dude here needs minutes. And well, there are only 96 minutes in a given game. Provided going to overtime wasn't on purpose last season, the problem will persist this season as well.
Al Jefferson (27.83 yrs old on Oct 31st; 34.9 mpg over last 5 seasons) -- He's the big man, the primary scorer, and he's in his peak right now. He's used to being the main focus, and even one of the historically most "our way or the highway" teams changed their entire offense just to cater to his skills and limitations. So yeah. Al's our guy.
Paul Millsap (27.73 yrs old on Oct 31st; 28.9 mpg over last 5 seasons) -- Paul worked his way up through the system, gradually becoming a starter after years of apprenticeship. He's a big game player who can do a lot of cool things, especially in clutch situations.
Derrick Favors (21.30 yrs old on Oct 31st; 20.4 mpg over last 5 seasons) -- He has the potential to be the second best bigman in the history of our franchise. Will he reach that potential?
Enes Kanter (20.45 yrs old on Oct 31st; 13.2 mpg over last 5 seasons) -- Kanter is a tank. He hasn't played a lot of ball, but the more ball he plays the more confidence he'll have. Confidence is what he needs the most. (Then he'll be able to work up the courage to ask Suzie to the prom for sure!)
- and Jeremy Evans (25.02 yrs old on Oct 31st; 8.9 mpg over last 5 seasons) -- I expect Evans to only receive mop up duty until he can A) either improve on his face up game (dribbling and shooting); or B) one of the four guys ahead of him are traded.
Theory suggests that Jeremy *could* play some three, and that Marvin *could* play some four. I think those two things cross out for this simplified theory though.
Their 5 season trends:
There is really no movement with Big Al. He always plays. He doesn't play crazy minutes (36+ mpg), but he's always above 32 though. Paul is a self made man, and finally got a chance to play -- and was a near All-Star last season. Derrick is on the slow growth plan right now, but he needs to be getting over 30 this next season. Enes needs minutes too, but it's going to be hard for the Jazz to nut-up and make a decision on Big Al or Paul. Jeremy Evans is a nice player when he gets into the game. The Jazz are not trying at all to get him into the game though. He played less MPG in his 2nd season, and he also played in less games.
My interpretation of where their MPG baselines have to start:
- Big Al is going to start at least 33 MPG, he's in his peak and he's the big man on campus right now
- On paper you can say the same thing about Millsap -- but if I can have only ONE thing this year, it's that Favors is a starter who plays a lot of mins. I know Sap is going to be the more likely one to take the hit, because God forbid anyone criticize or take anything away from Big Al . . .
- Favors, 31 mpg. Period.
- Enes needs to play 18 mpg, but that's not going to happen. I don't think a legit baseline for him exists with the bigs on the roster. His baseline is going to start off with leftovers after the first three get theirs
- Jeremy Evans, honestly, needs to play 13 mpg, but it's not going to happen. He's going to get 4 mpg this next year or something crazy like that.