FanPost

Draft odds trials

We’ve all noticed how infrequently the team with the worst record ends up with the number 1 pick. The worst team actually only has a 25.0% chance of landing the #1 but a 35.7% chance of getting slotted at #4 (I’m going to assume that there’s no funny business in the NBA’s secret, smoke-filled room when it all goes down). Because I'm nearly as crazy as Amar, I did a trial of draft odds. I used a random number generator using the odds of the three teams with the worst records and did 10 trials for each.

The last place team (ie, 30th place, worst record) won the first pick only once (!) with an average position of 3.5. The second to last place team won #1 four times with an average position of 2.5. The team with the third worst record won #1 twice with an average position of 3.1.

So, despite my fanaticism for Jabari (this kid is the next Durrant!), I’m going to quit cheering for the Jazz to finish in the basement. Other than not possibly falling any worse than the #4 pick, the worst team really doesn’t otherwise gain much advantage. So, c’mon Trey, Alec, Gordo, Favs, Big Turk – let’s win some games!

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.

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