FanPost

How bad would we have to be?

There's been a lot of talk recently about whether or not we'll be getting a top 3 draft pick. Our losing streak at the beginning of the season seemed to convince many people that the worst record was an inevitability. A healthy Trey Burke has changed some minds. I figured I'd do a little digging and see how bad the bottom three teams have generally been. I don't want to say that this will give us something to shoot for, but it was useful for setting my expectations.

I looked at wins/losses, win percentage, point differential, and simple ranking system (SRS, an explanation of which can be found here) over the last 15 seasons.

Have a look.

Average

NBA Rank

Wins

Losses

Win%

PtsDiff

SRS

18

40.8

41.2

0.498

-0.4

-0.14

19

38.6

43.4

0.471

-1.3

-1.15

20

36.2

45.8

0.442

-1.6

-1.56

21

34.6

47.4

0.422

-2.2

-2.08

22

33.4

48.6

0.407

-2.5

-2.53

23

31.8

50.2

0.388

-3.2

-3.12

24

30.2

51.8

0.368

-3.5

-3.54

25

27.9

54.1

0.341

-4.2

-4.05

26

26.6

55.4

0.324

-4.7

-4.35

27

25.0

57.0

0.305

-5.6

-5.28

28

22.8

59.2

0.278

-6.1

-5.88

29

19.6

62.4

0.239

-7.9

-7.75

30

16.5

65.5

0.201

-8.5

-8.29

Median

NBA Rank

Wins

Losses

Win%

PtsDiff

SRS

18

41

41

0.500

-0.6

-0.14

19

39

43

0.476

-1.3

-1.15

20

36

46

0.439

-1.5

-1.56

21

35

47

0.427

-2.2

-2.08

22

34

48

0.415

-2.5

-2.53

23

32

50

0.390

-3.1

-3.12

24

30

52

0.366

-3.6

-3.54

25

28

54

0.341

-3.7

-4.05

26

27

55

0.329

-4.8

-4.35

27

25

57

0.305

-5.8

-5.28

28

23

59

0.280

-6.0

-5.88

29

19

63

0.232

-8.8

-7.75

30

17

65

0.207

-8.6

-8.29

This Season's Worst (so far)

Team

Wins

Losses

Win%

PtsDiff

SRS

Magic

6

12

0.333

-2.5

-2.72

Cavs

6

12

0.333

-7.3

-8.12

Nets

5

14

0.263

-8.7

-8.35

Kings

4

12

0.250

-3.7

-1.15

Knicks

4

13

0.235

-4.1

-3.46

Jazz

4

16

0.200

-8.9

-6.5

Bucks

3

15

0.167

-9.3

-10.7

Right now, the Jazz are on pace for 16 or 17 wins. That happens to be the exact record of the worst team in an average year. Our point differential is also in the area of the average worst team, though our SRS would place us at either the 28th or 29th rank. If this holds we're likely to end the season ranked 29th or 30th. Worst case scenario we get the 5th pick in the draft.

If I had to guess, I would say that schedule difficulty and injuries have skewed our record thus far and that the Jazz will improve as the season goes on. That said, I still think we'll end the season in the bottom three. I think the Knicks will turn it around at some point, as will the Nets. The Cavs also seem to be under achieving so far. That leaves the Bucks, Kings, and Magic as our 'competition.'

Let me know what you think.

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.

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