Above is the google doc spreadsheet I'll be referencing. I'll start with the CBA question first and revisit its significance later so the experts don't have to wade through my post...
What is the maximum you can front load a contract in regards to signing bonuses? I read Peter Novak suggest that the Jazz can frontload (beyond 7.5% decreases) a Millsap offer because they will be under the cap. I looked through the CBA and from what I understood (which is probably wrong) any contract bonus gets counted against the cap evenly over the guaranteed years of the deal.
The Jazz will probably never recruit a top 20 player and will not draft one that often either. I really think they need a team-oriented system so the sum is more than the total of its parts. Even when Al is productive I don't enjoy his style of offense - ball movement, defense, fast breaks, and motion basketball are just way more beautiful and fun to me (I think I am not alone on this when you see the empty stands). Ty seems to generally do the easy/comfortable thing so I am a little scared that he isn't capable of running an offensive scheme like that. If he can't design the offensive juggernauts like Jerry could, he will have to make it up on the defensive end....(double gulp).
It has been very hard to enjoy watching this season, so it is time to get excited for next season!(too soon?) For the 2013/2014 season the Jazz currently have roughly 29.5 million committed to 10 players (first tab in doc). This is assuming Marv opts in and the Jazz retain their 3 draft picks. This means the Jazz need to spend roughly $25-$42 million on roster slots 11-14. The issue is that the Jazz will be getting the bill for the C4 in the following years (2 in 14/15 and the other 2 the next year) and to keep any they need to preserve some future cap space. There are a few options to reach the min salary while retaining future flexibility.
1) Acquire expiring deals - Marvin will probably be expiring but to acquire more means giving up assets in return. Also not great for developing team cohesion going forward.
2) One/Two year mercenary style contracts. - some players might be willing to come to Utah for one year if they overpay (essentially what they did with Randy Foye this year). Again not great for cohesion going forward and not a great trade asset (cause they will be overpaid). Also might steal minutes from youth.
3) Front loaded contracts. The most interesting to me because you can sign productive players near value without destroying long term flexibility. Not sure how possible this is with the new CBA beyond annual 7.5% decreases for bird resignings.
I think Millsap is a great fit for the team and as good as any free agent who will consider us (not that I wouldn't try to max offer CP3) so the second tab is mainly looking at how a deal for him would look. If its possible to count the entire bonus in the first year (doubtful?) the Jazz could still sign a mid-level stop gap PG and a couple min salary guys to round out the roster.
Feel free to tweak the first 4 numbers (yellow boxes) in the unlocked tabs.