Okay, just to catch everyone up . . . the Utah Jazz have three picks in this draft.
- 1st Round, Pick #14
- 1st Round, Pick #21
- 2nd Round, Pick #46
These are good draft picks no matter what your strategy is. With the first pick you get a lotto player. The last lotto player, but still a lotto player. If someone slips due to draft craziness then we can scoop them up. The second pick is an even better position. You can pick up a less all-around player who may actually have a better best skill at the NBA level. Or, alternatively, you can go and pick a guy who may be a sleeper. The third pick isn't that great by itself, but it's a lot better than ALL of the draft picks we had last year -- the #47th pick in the draft.
Of course, the Jazz will always have the option to make moves. We've seen the Jazz trade a late 1st rounder for a middle 1st rounder. (Ryan Humphrey #19 for Curtis Borchardt #18 back in 2002) We've seen the Jazz trade a late 2nd rounder for a mid 2nd rounder (Herbert Hill #55 for Kyrylo Fesenko #38 back in 2007). And, of course, we've seen the Jazz trade multiple picks (2005 1st rounders Martell Webster and Linas Kleiza; and 2006 1st rounder Joel Freeland) for a top pick (#3 2005, Deron Williams). Our team can make moves. And our team knows how to draft. And our team finds diamonds in the rough.
While we do make some mistakes here or there (Kosta Koufos #23 2008, instead of Serge Ibaka #24, Nicolas Batum #25, or George Hill #26), I'm confident in what we are doing in the draft. I'm really confident after seeing more and more of former Spurs scholar Dennis Lindsey's fingerprints on everything we do. We have guys who ONLY do stats. We have guys who ONLY scout certain things. (Instead of having fewer scouts who have to be able to scout all types of players in all locations) We sent at least 9 non-scouts to the Draft Combine. I trust that our team has done their homework this year, even if some of us fans haven't.
The good guys at 82games.com have made a table of expected value for each pick, it's based upon a 20 year sample (1989-2008). The new info changes things a bit . . . but from what they say:
- The #14 pick has a 45% chance of being a solid player or better, is a role player 25% of the time, and is a bench player or worse 30% of the time. Effectively it's a 1/3 chance of being good, and 2/3 chance of being okay or better. A team that does their homework shouldn't botch this pick
- The #21 pick is a role player or solid 60% of the time. That's A LOT OF THE TIME. They are three times as likely to be a benchwarmer or worse than they are likely to be a star. Go safe here, right? Or do you swing for the fences?
- The #46 pick is usually a guy you fill out your roster with. It's rare that you can get someone awesome there, but while it is rare it's not unheard of. Well, no, it's really just Danny Green -- and we went over how unlikely Green is statistically.
Here are the last 25 years of each of these picks . . . some names you'll remember. Others you will not.
|1||1988||Dan Majerle||Mark Bryant||Morlon Wiley|
|2||1989||Tim Hardaway||Blue Edwards||Ricky Blanton|
|3||1990||Travis Mays||Jayson Williams||Kenny Williams|
|4||1991||Rich King||Eric Murdock||Richard Dumas|
|5||1992||Malik Sealy||Jon Barry||Robert Werdann|
|6||1993||Scott Haskin||James Robinson||Richard Petruska|
|7||1994||Yinka Dare||Dickey Simpkins||Voshon Lenard|
|8||1995||Eric Williams||Michael Finley||George Banks|
|9||1996||Peja Stojakovic||Dontae Jones||Marcus Brown|
|10||1997||Maurice Taylor||Anthony Parker||Eric Washington|
|11||1998||Michael Dickerson||Ricky Davis||Andrae Patterson|
|12||1999||William Avery||Jeff Foster||J.R. Koch|
|13||2000||Mateen Cleaves||Morris Peterson||DeeAndre Hulett|
|14||2001||Troy Murphy||Joseph Forte||Ousmane Cisse|
|15||2002||Fred Jones||Qyntel Woods||Jamal Sampson|
|16||2003||Luke Ridnour||Boris Diaw||Sani Becirovic|
|17||2004||Kris Humphries||Pavel Podkolzin||Ha Seung-Jin|
|18||2005||Rashad McCants||Nate Robinson||Erazem Lorbek|
|19||2006||Ronnie Brewer||Rajon Rondo||Dee Brown|
|20||2007||Al Thornton||Daequan Cook||Stephane Lasme|
|21||2008||Anthony Randolph||Ryan Anderson||Trent Plaisted|
|22||2009||Earl Clark||Eric Maynor||Danny Green|
|23||2010||Patrick Patterson||Craig Brackins||Gani Lawal|
|24||2011||Marcus Morris||Nolan Smith||Andrew Goudelock|
|25||2012||John Henson||Jared Sulinger||Darius Miller|
But overall, yes, there's talent at these picks. There's more talent this year if you move up. And apparently even a greater bounty in 2014. So? What your draft strategy?