I am going on the record right now: I think Trey will be an All-Star. Am I simply high on the euphoria of the Jazz actually making an actual aggressive move to get a PG? Am I just looking through rose-colored-glasses that I would have looked at any Jazz pick with? Certainly, I might be wrong ultimately, but I will point out that before the draft I am on the record as advocating moving both picks and Alec to move up and get Trey... and I absolutely love Alec's game.
Here is why I am so high on Trey:
First, I don't watch college basketball. I only watch some tournament games. Most of what I base my reasoning on is retroactive research... looking through countless hours of DX videos, game replays etc. I like to look at not on the prospects DX video, but similar players from past years to get perspective. Knowing how well DX predicts certain traits translating to the NBA game is a good way to predict performance. Really it is what GMs do when figuring out how much they trust their own teams scouts. This are my observations:
1) Kemba Walker comparisons are way off. It's a lazy comparison based on physique and success in college. That's it. Trey is a much better passer. Much better. Trey's range is much deeper with his jump shot. Walker didn't (doesn't) approach the P/R in the same way. Trey doesn't count on beating opponents to the rim... he put's them on his tail and reads the play. This leads us to....
2) The only other player I know who was as good as Trey at putting his defender behind him and reading the P/R coming out of college is Chris Paul. If you guys can point out another prospect who did/does let me know (Nash probably did, but I don't can find that scouting report.). It is an elite level skill. Elite.
3) People who point out the similarities to Paul, are also quick to point out that Paul is built much stronger. I agree with that, but I'm not sure why that relates to running a P/R. You know who was built like Paul. Stockton! And Nash! Trey will be fine physically. His game isn't exploding to the rim like Rose or Westbrook. His gains space by being crafty and reading the play. Same as Paul, Stockton, and Nash.
4) Speaking of non-explosive PG's who seem to be fine on offense... anyone notice that kid named Steph Curry? Why? He can shoot the lights out. Trey isn't Curry (because no one is Curry), but he will be a 40% 3pt / high volume shooter in the NBA. His shot translates. He has legit 30 foot range, and not just spotting up. His shooting will translate.
5) The Core 4 (which is now the C5), is tailor made to make Trey look great. Favors is a devastating P/R target, and when Kanter gets the ball in scoring position, he scores. Hayward is a knock-down shooter and I think Trey will bring out the best in Alec. There will be assists to be had. Many assists. And the Jazz are going to become good. Very good. And much sooner then (outsiders) will expect.
So to recap.... Trey is elite at body positioning in the P/R, he has amazing court vision and passing skill, and is a deadly shooter. Ok, now let's add in that the one thing every one does agree with: he is an unbelievable competitor and leader. So he won't ever put on highlight reel dunks in traffic. Number of dunks in Stockton and Nash's careers combined: 0. Honestly, I think Trey's floor is as a top 15 PG for a half dozen years.
My opinion: we just got a future All-Star. Until someone convinces me otherwise, I am going to sit here in basketball euphoria.