Question is not who is going to score but, who is going to shoot

I'm just having a little fun with some numbers and thought I'd share. Let's assume that Mo Williams and Tinsley aren't going to be back. I believe that is a safe bet. Our team shot a total of 6710 fg attempts last year. Of those numbers 1596 were around the basket, 1385 were 3 point shots and 2472 were everything else. We shot 55.9% around the rim 36.6% from 3 and 38.2% everywhere else.

If we consider that Mo and Tinsley are gone, then in total from all players we are losing 4089 shots out of 6710 shots taken (League average of 6720 fga) . Remaining members shot a collective of 2621 fg attempts last year ( not including new players). 61 % of our shot taken last year is gone. On average teams take about 82 fg a game. That means we have 50 more shots a game that will be going to our new lineup. I REPEAT 50 SHOTS A GAME. Question is not who is going to score but who is going to shoot.

We could take last years stats of average fga per minute then figure out per projected minute stats and figure out the number of attempts taken based on historical rates. Heck lets do it. I'm just going to throw out some projected minutes. See the below table. (Rush's numbers are off the 11-12 season) Table shows if players continue at a historical rate of how often they take shots then we will have taken around 62 shots a game. So we have about 20 shots to divide up.

minutes attempt per minute 12-13 season attempts per game projected
hayward,gordon 35 0.366698292 12.83444023
favors,derrick 35 0.316936836 11.09278927
kanter,enes 35 0.352177943 12.32622799
williams,marvin 15 0.271990741 4.079861111
burks,alec 35 0.340669014 11.92341549
evans,jeremy 15 0.203703704 3.055555556
burke,trey 25 0 0
rush,brandon 15 0.272991851 4.094877765
jefferson,richard 5 0.23943662 1.197183099
biendris,andrei 5 0.042424242 0.212121212
gobert,rudy 10 0 0
JLIII 10 0.403869407 4.038694075
Total 240 64.85516579

I believe Burke is probably going to take around 8 shots a game. Gobert might take upwards of 3 shots. This means that in reality one or more of our current players is going to need to shoot at a higher rate but not as nearly as a dramatic increase from what they are use to. We need about 10 more shots a game to come from a combo of players. (Table also shows that JLIII is a chucker and shoots when he gets a chance)

A couple of thoughts. In general our offense last year did not run through many of the players that we currently have on the roster. A play wasn't run for Kanter and Favors at a very high rate last year (I don't have stats to back this claim up just going by eyes on game here) A lot of their attempts were follow up and "garbage" baskets. I believe Kanter will have a higher percentage of plays ran through him then Favors this year. I see his and Jeremy's shot per minute played increasing. I believe that Hayward will also be a main focal point of the offense and will take a couple of more shots per minute also.

If we can get a attempts per game that looks close to these

minutes attempts per minute projected attempts per game projected
hayward,gordon 35 0.457142857 16
favors,derrick 35 0.342857143 12
kanter,enes 35 0.4 14
williams,marvin 15 0.266666667 4
burks,alec 35 0.285714286 10
evans,jeremy 15 0.333333333 5
burke,trey 25 0.32 8
rush,brandon 15 0.333333333 5
jefferson,richard 5 0.2 1
biendris,andrei 5 0.2 1
gobert,rudy 10 0.3 3
JLIII 10 0.3 3
Total 240 82

Then we will be fairly decent shape. Shot attempts like this will project out to be something along the lines of 6724 shots taken next year. If past % of shots taken play out then we will roughly take 3300 shots around the rim 1320 three pointers and 2100 other 2 point shots. This will equate to roughly 40 shots around the rim, 16 three pointers and 26 other shots. Last year the group that remains on the team (not including new players of rush, beans, burke and so on) shot 55.9% around the rim 37.2% from 3 and 35.8% from everywhere else. This projects out to 81 points a game. On average teams make about 17 free throws. So a total of around 98 points a game. Not bad.

So what the heck does all this mean. First...I had a slow day at work...second not a ton but they are some fun numbers and help me to come to terms as to what to expect next year based on past performance. So caveats. Past rolls will change and will need to. If we look at a fairly useless stat of Point per attempt and then project that to the attempts per game I would like to see, we get a fun table that looks like this. For the new players on the team I look at the historical I could find and if none then took the number 1 and applied it.

We might be O'kay next year. Of course........numbers.PHttTTTtttttttTTTTt

minutes attempts per minute projected attempts per game projected points per attempt possiple points
hayward,gordon 35 0.457142857 16 1.315653299 21.05045278
favors,derrick 35 0.342857143 12 1.282186949 15.38624339
kanter,enes 35 0.4 14 1.336842105 18.71578947
williams,marvin 15 0.266666667 4 1.125531915 4.50212766
burks,alec 35 0.285714286 10 1.160206718 11.60206718
evans,jeremy 15 0.333333333 5 1.704545455 8.522727273
burke,trey 25 0.32 8 1 8
rush,brandon 15 0.333333333 5 1.351812367 6.759061834
jefferson,richard 5 0.2 1 1.294117647 1.294117647
biendris,andrei 5 0.2 1 1.142857143 1.142857143
gobert,rudy 10 0.3 3 1 3
JLIII 10 0.3 3 0.997005988 2.991017964
Total 240 82 102.9664623

This also will be hard to figure out because of all the new players, but there is a some info here that I think is fun. We might not be so anemic on offense next year.

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.

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