I'm just having a little fun with some numbers and thought I'd share. Let's assume that Mo Williams and Tinsley aren't going to be back. I believe that is a safe bet. Our team shot a total of 6710 fg attempts last year. Of those numbers 1596 were around the basket, 1385 were 3 point shots and 2472 were everything else. We shot 55.9% around the rim 36.6% from 3 and 38.2% everywhere else.
If we consider that Mo and Tinsley are gone, then in total from all players we are losing 4089 shots out of 6710 shots taken (League average of 6720 fga) . Remaining members shot a collective of 2621 fg attempts last year ( not including new players). 61 % of our shot taken last year is gone. On average teams take about 82 fg a game. That means we have 50 more shots a game that will be going to our new lineup. I REPEAT 50 SHOTS A GAME. Question is not who is going to score but who is going to shoot.
We could take last years stats of average fga per minute then figure out per projected minute stats and figure out the number of attempts taken based on historical rates. Heck lets do it. I'm just going to throw out some projected minutes. See the below table. (Rush's numbers are off the 11-12 season) Table shows if players continue at a historical rate of how often they take shots then we will have taken around 62 shots a game. So we have about 20 shots to divide up.
|minutes||attempt per minute 12-13 season||attempts per game projected|
I believe Burke is probably going to take around 8 shots a game. Gobert might take upwards of 3 shots. This means that in reality one or more of our current players is going to need to shoot at a higher rate but not as nearly as a dramatic increase from what they are use to. We need about 10 more shots a game to come from a combo of players. (Table also shows that JLIII is a chucker and shoots when he gets a chance)
A couple of thoughts. In general our offense last year did not run through many of the players that we currently have on the roster. A play wasn't run for Kanter and Favors at a very high rate last year (I don't have stats to back this claim up just going by eyes on game here) A lot of their attempts were follow up and "garbage" baskets. I believe Kanter will have a higher percentage of plays ran through him then Favors this year. I see his and Jeremy's shot per minute played increasing. I believe that Hayward will also be a main focal point of the offense and will take a couple of more shots per minute also.
If we can get a attempts per game that looks close to these
|minutes||attempts per minute projected||attempts per game projected|
Then we will be fairly decent shape. Shot attempts like this will project out to be something along the lines of 6724 shots taken next year. If past % of shots taken play out then we will roughly take 3300 shots around the rim 1320 three pointers and 2100 other 2 point shots. This will equate to roughly 40 shots around the rim, 16 three pointers and 26 other shots. Last year the group that remains on the team (not including new players of rush, beans, burke and so on) shot 55.9% around the rim 37.2% from 3 and 35.8% from everywhere else. This projects out to 81 points a game. On average teams make about 17 free throws. So a total of around 98 points a game. Not bad.
So what the heck does all this mean. First...I had a slow day at work...second not a ton but they are some fun numbers and help me to come to terms as to what to expect next year based on past performance. So caveats. Past rolls will change and will need to. If we look at a fairly useless stat of Point per attempt and then project that to the attempts per game I would like to see, we get a fun table that looks like this. For the new players on the team I look at the historical I could find and if none then took the number 1 and applied it.
We might be O'kay next year. Of course........numbers.PHttTTTtttttttTTTTt
|minutes||attempts per minute projected||attempts per game projected||points per attempt||possiple points|
This also will be hard to figure out because of all the new players, but there is a some info here that I think is fun. We might not be so anemic on offense next year.