FanPost

Comparing Bad Teams Part 2 - Bench



A quick recap for those of you who haven't read part 1:

I'm focusing on the bottom 9 teams on SB Nations rankings, (and the Trailblazers). I started by grabbing the projected depth chart for the upcoming season from ESPN, knowing the rosters aren't final.

The stats I'm using are PER and Win-shares per 48. I like these stats because they're normalized each year, are pace adjusted, and the combination also seems to give a fairly good representation of both offense and defense. Rookies are assigned values of zero. All stats listed are career numbers rather than '12-'13 numbers, so if numbers seem too high or low, that's most likely the reason. Career numbers are used because most players tend to be closer to those averages during any given season, than their previous year's numbers.

NBA experience and minutes per game are also included. Consider them as you will.

On to the data:

Jazz bench

Exp.

MPG

PER

WS/48

Celtics Bench

Exp.

MPG

PER

WS/48

John Lucas

5

11.8

13.5

0.088

Courtney Lee

5

26.7

12.1

0.082

Brandon Rush

5

26.8

10.9

0.059

MarShon Brooks

2

19.8

13.1

0.039

Richard Jefferson

12

32.6

15.4

0.127

Gerald Wallace

12

31.0

16.9

0.122

Jeremy Evans

3

7.8

19.3

0.183

Jared Sullinger

1

19.8

13.5

0.146

Andris Biedrins

9

21.8

15.3

0.133

Shavlik Randolph

6

8.8

13.8

0.103

Marvin Williams

8

29.6

13.5

0.098

Jordan Crawford

3

25.5

13.6

0.025

Ian Clark

0

0.0

0.0

0.000

Kris Joseph

1

5.4

0.6

-0.127

Rudy Gobert

0

0.0

0.0

0.000

Kris Humphries

9

17.9

15.3

0.092




Fab Melo

1

6.0

4.9

0.021




Keith Bogans

10

21.8

9.6

0.067

Averages

5.3

16.3

11.0

0.086

Averages

5.0

18.3

11.3

0.057









Bobcats Bench

Exp.

MPG

PER

WS/48

Kings bench

Exp.

MPG

PER

WS/48

Ramon Sessions

6

25.6

16.9

0.090

Isaiah Thomas

2

26.2

17.6

0.118

Jeffery Taylor

1

19.6

10.3

0.039

Marcus Thornton

4

26.6

16.9

0.098

Josh McRoberts

6

17.0

13.8

0.109

John Salmons

11

27.2

12.5

0.071

Bismack Biyombo

2

25.5

10.3

0.026

Carl Landry

6

24.5

17.7

0.154

Jeff Adrien

3

11.7

12.8

0.064

Chuck Hayes

8

19.5

12.5

0.120

Brendan Haywood

12

13.4

14.7

0.113

Jimmer Fredette

2

16.2

12.5

0.031





Travis Outlaw

10

21.4

13.4

0.061




Patrick Patterson

3

22.1

14.2

0.094




Ray McCallum

0

0.0

0.0

0.000




Averages

5.0

18.8

13.1

0.074

Averages

5.1

20.4

13.0

0.083









Magic bench

Exp.

MPG

PER

WS/48

Bucks bench

Exp.

MPG

PER

WS/48

E'Twaun Moore

2

17.8

10.4

0.010

Ish Smith

3

9.9

9.3

-0.011

Victor Oladipo

0

0.0

0.0

0.000

Carlos Delfino

8

22.8

12.6

0.093

Maurice Harkless

1

26.0

12.5

0.059

Ekpe Udoh

3

18.6

11.5

0.072

Andrew Nicholson

1

16.7

15.1

0.065

Zaza Pachulia

10

20.4

14.0

0.104

Kyle O'Quinn

1

11.2

15.8

0.107

Miroslav Raduljica

0

0.0

0.0

0.000

Ronnie Price

8

11.6

8.9

0.020

Brandon Knight

2

31.9

11.9

0.025

Doron Lamb

1

12.3

4.8

-0.032





Hedo Turkoglu

13

28.5

14.4

0.115




Jason Maxiell

8

19.1

13.4

0.089




Al Harrington

15

29.0

14.4

0.073

Averages

5.0

17.2

11.0

0.1

Averages

4.3

17.3

9.9

0.047









Suns bench

Exp.

MPG

PER

WS/48

Raptors bench

Exp.

MPG

PER

WS/48

Kendall Marshall

1

14.6

7.8

-0.012

Dwight Buycks

0

0.0

0.0

0.000

Shannon Brown

7

18.7

12.7

0.065

Landry Fields

3

27.5

12.4

0.086

Michael Beasley

5

26.4

15.0

0.044

Steve Novak

7

13.5

13.0

0.126

Marcus Morris

2

17.6

10.7

0.047

Tyler Hansbrough

4

19.7

15.4

0.126

Miles Plumlee

1

3.9

8.8

-0.015

Aaron Gray

6

12.4

11.8

0.084

Malcolm Lee

2

15.2

9.6

0.043

D.J. Augustin

5

24.5

13.9

0.096

Archie Goodwin

0

0.0

0.0

0.000

Terrence Ross

1

17.0

10.4

0.034

P.J. Tucker

2

20.8

11.6

0.074

Quentin Richardson

13

26.5

12.9

0.076

Channing Frye

7

23.9

13.9

0.094

Quincy Acy

1

11.8

15.9

0.157

Gerald Green

6

17.5

11.9

0.042

Averages

3.3

15.9

10.2

0.038

Averages

4.4

17.0

11.7

0.087









76ers bench

Exp.

MPG

PER

WS/48

Trailblazers bench

Exp.

MPG

PER

WS/48

Justin Holiday

1

15.8

7.6

-0.042

Earl Watson

12

22.6

12.2

0.048

James Anderson

3

11.1

10.3

0.063

C.J. McCollum

0

0.0

0.0

0.000

Arnett Moultrie

1

11.5

16.7

0.149

Dorell Wright

9

24.7

14.6

0.101

Kwame Brown

12

22.1

12.5

0.074

Thomas Robinson

1

15.1

10.9

-0.002

Lavoy Allen

2

19.1

11.8

0.086

Meyers Leonard

1

17.5

12.1

0.097

Tim Ohlbrecht

1

4.0

-6.1

-0.369

Terrel Harris

2

10.8

3.5

-0.059

Royce White

0

0.0

0.0

0.000

Allen Crabbe

0

0.0

0.0

0.000




Victor Claver

1

16.6

7.0

-0.005




Will Barton

1

12.2

9.1

-0.028

Joel Freeland

1

9.4

9.3

0.022

Averages

2.9

11.9

7.5

-0.006

Averages

2.8

12.9

7.9

0.017

Wow, the 76ers are bad!

Benches are a lot harder to evaluate than starters:

  1. Not everyone on the bench will play regularly. Some players may not see the court more than a handful of games.
  2. Some benches may be used extensively during a season due to injuries or age. The Nets, for instance, will probably rely on their bench for long stretches of games because they want to rest all of the old legs that are starting, while the Timberwolves may use their bench a lot if the injury bug bites them again.
  3. Bench rotations are much more likely to change than starting rotations. The Jazz may play Biedrins as backup center at the beginning of the season, but Gobert later on when he's bulked up a bit and is more familiar with the speed of the NBA.

Because of these variables, I have to look at benches as a whole. The good news is that the Jazz don't look too bad (at least within this limited group of teams). We're tied with the Magic as the fifth best bench in terms of PER, and the third best according to WS/48. That's better than our starters looked when compared to the same teams.

There are some anomalies that need to be taken into account:

  1. Jeremy Evans is a statistical freak. He's by far the best player on that table. But, excepting rookies, he's played fewer minutes per game than all but 4 other players who were rookies last year. That's a sample size issue if I've ever seen one.
  2. Andris Biedrins is our second best bench player (Richard Jefferson's numbers are almost identical, but he's past his prime while Biedrins is in his prime). This is because I'm using career averages, rather than last season's numbers. Biedrins' PER was quite good his first few years, but has gotten progressively worse since '07-'08. The good news is that his WS/48 (which is better at accounting for defense) has remained close to league average.
  3. Brandon Rush, the most promising of our GSW players, is the worst bench player we have. Again, this is a career numbers issue. During his last full season he was right at league average in both PER and WS/48.

It would be nice to try and correct for these points, but I'm pretty sure that other teams have similar anomalies, and I can't account for those. In order to be as objective as possible, I have to take the data as presented.

It's obvious that the Jazz don't have the same depth as we did last season, but our bench isn't awful. In fact, we're the 13th best bench in the league according to collective PER, and the 6th best by WS/48. That's right, our bench is better than league average, bet you didn't see that coming!

At the end of part 1, I stated that our starters are looking like the 3rd to 5th worst team in the league, and that would put us at about 24 wins. Our bench, however, may actually increase that number rather than decrease it. If you figure (and I'm just making these numbers up) that starters are responsible for about 80% of wins during a season, and the bench is responsible for the remaining 20%, our superior bench (HA! who would have though I could write that!) could add about 6 wins. That would put us at about 30 wins for the season.

I personally don't think that our bench will have that large of an impact, but I could see them contributing 4 or 5 wins over the course of the season. That would still put us at 28 wins or so next year, good for a tie as the 3rd worst in the west last year, 6th worst in the league.

Thoughts on our bench?

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.

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