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Hayward, Burks, and Kanter's Market Values

Today I will be analyzing our notable players set to sign their next contracts in the market this offseason. I will be comparing them to other players in the same ballpark of value. As of next season, we have 6 players under contract: Favors, Kanter, Burke, Burks, Evans, and Gobert. That leaves a wide assortment of players that the Jazz front office have to decide on this offseason.

The major decision this offseason is if the Jazz decide to match whatever offer Gordon Hayward gets in the offseason as a restricted free agent. Other major decisions include whether Burks and Kanter will get extensions or not. I will be trying to determine the market value for these 3 players.

Burks and Hayward Market Value

First up, I'll be comparing Burks and Gordon Hayward to other wings in the league. Let's compare them to other wings who are locked into contracts already.

(I will be showing Salary per year, Name, Age, Years of experience (after this year this over), and this season's stats for field goal %, 3 point %, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and points per game. Advanced stats for this season's PER, Usage rate, offensive and defensive ratings, and win share per 48 minutes will also be shown. Career win shares will also be shown for good measure.)

$ per year

Name

Age

Exp

FG%

3P%

RPG

APG

SPG

BPG

PPG

PER

USG%

ORtg

DRtg

WS/48

Career WS

?

G Hayward

23

4

0.408

0.307

5.5

5.2

1.5

0.6

15.9

16.3

23.1

103

109

0.066

14.5

?

A. Burks

22

3

0.446

0.351

3.3

2.8

0.8

0.2

13.8

15.8

24.2

106

112

0.073

5.3

15.5

J. Harden

24

5

0.457

0.352

4.8

5.7

1.5

0.4

24.9

22.5

27.7

117

106

0.207

43.1

15.2

P. George

23

4

0.436

0.369

6.5

3.5

1.8

0.3

22.1

20.7

28.3

109

96

0.196

26.8

12.0

A. Iguodala

30

10

0.469

0.346

4.7

4.3

1.6

0.3

9.3

13.4

13.5

110

102

0.128

71.6

11.5

N. Batum

25

6

0.453

0.346

7.1

5.1

0.9

0.7

12.9

15.4

16.5

112

107

0.123

30.3

11.0

S. Curry

26

5

0.459

0.409

4.4

8.6

1.6

0.2

23.2

23.0

28.0

115

103

0.211

34.8

11.0

T Evans

24

5

0.413

0.205

4.6

4.6

1.1

0.3

13.1

17.5

26.8

102

109

0.066

16.1

9.5

D. DeRozan

24

5

0.432

0.305

4.4

3.8

1.1

0.4

22.7

18.5

28.1

110

106

0.145

19.7

9.2

J. Green

27

6

0.417

0.346

4.7

1.6

0.6

0.5

17.0

13.6

23.5

103

108

0.068

23.6

9.0

T. Young

25

7

0.468

0.301

6.1

2.2

2.1

0.4

17.5

17.0

23.5

102

108

0.069

35.0

8.0

M. Ellis

28

9

0.454

0.312

3.5

5.8

1.8

0.3

18.8

17.0

25.9

104

109

0.079

32.0

8.0

B. Jennings

24

5

0.379

0.340

3.1

7.8

1.4

0.1

16.5

16.4

23.8

107

111

0.085

23.3

8.0

O Mayo

26

6

0.401

0.369

2.4

2.2

0.6

0.3

11.6

10.9

23.0

97

114

0.001

19.1

7.5

A. Afflalo

28

7

0.467

0.428

3.9

3.6

0.6

0.0

19.6

17.1

23.7

111

111

0.111

26.1

7.5

G. Dragic

27

6

0.508

0.415

3.4

6.2

1.4

0.3

20.6

22.1

24.9

119

109

0.193

23.1

7.5

M. Ginobili

36

12

0.465

0.359

3.0

4.5

1.0

0.2

12.5

20.4

24.7

113

103

0.181

92.7

7.0

J.J. Redick

29

8

0.459

0.396

2.1

2.2

0.8

0.1

15.7

17.0

21.9

118

109

0.154

28.0

7.0

W. Matthews

27

5

0.443

0.396

3.9

2.4

1.0

0.2

16.3

15.9

19.2

119

109

0.147

28.1

6.4

W. Chandler

27

7

0.418

0.356

4.9

1.8

0.7

0.5

14.3

13.5

19.8

109

110

0.091

16.5

6.0

G Henderson

26

5

0.447

0.330

4.1

2.6

0.7

0.4

14.6

12.9

22.8

99

106

0.058

9.4

6.0

J.R. Smith

28

10

0.396

0.377

3.9

3.1

0.9

0.3

13.3

12.3

20.9

102

111

0.046

33.3

4.7

C. Brewer

28

7

0.464

0.288

2.5

1.6

1.7

0.4

11.7

11.5

16.1

105

106

0.086

12.1

3.0

R. Foye

30

8

0.408

0.374

2.6

3.2

0.8

0.5

12.3

12.3

18.6

107

111

0.074

20.1

Okay, there are a lot of players there, starting with Hayward and Burks versus a bunch of other wings sorted by salary, ranging from Foye to Harden. Looking at these numbers leads me to believe that anything more than $10 million a year for either of our players would be overpaying, especially since both of them are probably only about 3rd options on a contender.

Hayward's stats appear to be fairly close to Monta Ellis' who is getting paid $8 million per year but is 4 years older. That room for improvement from Hayward probably gets him that extra couple million per year to also get $10 million per. I bet that there will be at least one team that offers him max or near max money of about $14 million per year. Before I was in the camp that the Jazz should match regardless, but I'm beginning to have second thoughts now that I see what similar players get.

It was hard for me to find a comparable for Burks, but I would say the closest to him this season on this list would by Tyreke Evans. Evans is overpaid due to him winning rookie of the year and showing good signs early on. But he has slowly gotten worse every year so far. I bet if Tyreke went on the market at the end of this season, he would net closer to $8 million per year. I say Burks can get up to $10 million since he has shown flashes of potential and skill even with inconsistent roles.

Kanter Market Value

We have already locked up Favors to be our intended defensive cornerstone, why not join him with another solid rebounder and offensive option in Kanter.

$ per year

Name

Age

Exp

FG%

3P%

RPG

APG

SPG

BPG

PPG

PER

USG%

ORtg

DRtg

WS/48

Career WS

?

E Kanter

21

3

0.505

0.000

6.5

0.9

0.4

0.6

12.2

16.2

23.5

104

111

0.065

6.2

22.0

D Howard

28

10

0.586

0.333

12.4

1.8

0.8

1.8

18.6

21.6

24.5

109

100

0.165

102.7

15.3

M. Gasol

29

6

0.465

0.200

6.8

3.7

1.0

1.3

13.9

17.5

21.3

107

103

0.126

45.9

15.2

D Cousins

23

4

0.487

0.000

11.7

2.8

1.5

1.3

22.2

25.5

32.4

107

102

0.162

15.7

15.0

D Lee

30

9

0.520

0.000

9.6

2.2

0.7

0.4

18.5

19.5

24.3

111

102

0.169

63.7

14.8

R Hibbert

27

6

0.463

0.400

7.3

1.2

0.4

2.4

11.3

15.1

19.2

103

97

0.138

27.8

13.5

A Jefferson

29

10

0.506

0.429

10.3

2.1

1.0

1.1

21.4

22.8

29.4

104

100

0.142

57.5

13.0

Nend

31

12

0.493

0.200

5.8

3.0

1.2

0.9

14.2

16.4

23.6

102

103

0.095

59.2

12.5

A Bogut

29

9

0.638

0.000

10.1

1.6

0.8

1.8

7.9

17.4

13.0

114

96

0.178

37.8

12.3

S Ibaka

24

5

0.546

0.378

8.9

0.9

0.5

2.6

15.2

19.9

19.7

115

101

0.178

34.7

12.0

D Favors

22

4

0.514

0.000

8.6

1.1

0.9

1.5

12.7

18.0

20.3

107

106

0.107

14.0

12.0

A. Horford

27

7

0.567

0.364

8.4

2.6

0.9

1.5

18.6

22.0

24.7

109

105

0.138

46.0

12.0

J Noah

29

7

0.485

0.000

11.3

4.9

1.1

1.5

12.2

20.0

18.2

112

96

0.191

48.2

12.0

N Pekovic

28

4

0.538

0.000

9.1

1.0

0.5

0.5

17.9

20.9

22.6

118

106

0.180

17.8

11.2

J McGee*

26

6

0.575

1.000

4.8

0.3

0.4

2.0

9.1

20.7

21.1

112

102

0.163

18.3

11.2

D Jordan

25

6

0.663

0.000

13.9

0.9

1.0

2.5

10.2

18.0

11.8

123

98

0.191

29.1

11.0

L Sanders*

25

4

0.506

0.000

9.5

1.2

0.7

2.8

9.8

18.7

16.9

109

99

0.149

8.8

9.5

P Millsap

29

8

0.459

0.368

8.2

3.1

1.8

1.1

17.6

19.8

25.8

105

102

0.124

52.9

9.0

T Splitter

29

4

0.524

0.000

5.9

1.3

0.5

0.5

8.3

16.6

18.0

114

103

0.161

18.2

6.5

B Bass

28

9

0.473

0.667

5.8

1.1

0.5

0.9

11.0

14.8

18.4

109

106

0.109

30.2

6.0

R Lopez

25

6

0.537

0.000

8.6

0.8

0.4

1.7

10.7

17.2

13.9

126

107

0.168

20.7

*- Used previous year's stats on these players since they were more reflective of their contract offer

There is a nice assortment of bigs up there to compare Kanter (and even Favors) to. The salaries range from Robin Lopez's $6 Million per year to Dwight Howard's $22 Million per year. For Favors $12 Million per year, the Jazz probably overpaid slightly as I would pin his market value at about $10-11 Million per year, but I'm glad we locked him in for 4 more years because if he makes another jump to the next level he will be at quite the discount.

Alright now comparing Kanter to these guys can be quite the challenge. His lack of defense this year will probably hurt his value quite a bit as he has the worst defensive rating of this group without amazing offensive numbers to compensate.Right now Kanter's numbers are not anything spectacular and are somewhat comparable to Tiago Splitter and Brandon Bass' numbers. That said, I would value Kanter at $8 Million per year, with $6 to $10 million being an appropriate range to expect for his extension if he gets one.

Overview

To summarize my findings, I would say that the market value of our core 4 would be as follows: Hayward $10 million, Burks $10 million, Favors $10 million, Kanter $8 million.

This is what I actually expect our free agents to get due to teams being willing to overpay: Hayward $12 million, Burks $11 million, Favors already signed for $12 million, and Kanter $10 million.

These are my predictions for our other free agents on the team: Marvin Williams $4 million per year with the Kings, Richard Jefferson $1.5 million per year with the Heat, John Lucas III (if we release him) $1 million with the Raptors, Andris Biedrins $1 million with the Wizards, Brandon Rush $1 million with the Lakers, Diante Garrett $2 million with the Jazz, Ian Clark $1 million with the Suns.

Thanks for reading my far-fetched speculation, let me know any comments you have or requests for future posts.

-JuMu

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.

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