FanPost

Burke + Gobert VS. 2013 Draft Class Rivals


Welcome back my fellow Dunkers,

This is my final post in my youth development series. Here are the links to my previous posts regarding an overview of our youth's situation, Hayward, Favors, Kanter, and Burks. Today's post will be shorter since it will be addressing just this season thus far regarding our very own rookies' development.

Background:

The Jazz went into the draft holding the 14th and 21st picks in the first round. Trey Burke was fresh off of losing in the NCAA championship game and his stock was high with him being projected as the top point guard in the draft. Luckily many of the top teams picking did not have a high need for a point guard and he slipped from a projected 6th pick all the way down to 9th to Minnesota. The Jazz then pulled the trigger to trade both of their 14th and 21st picks to the Timberwolves for Burke. I would say this has paid off greatly thus far as those two picks were just Shabazz Muhammad and Gorgui Dieng.

The Jazz also made another aggressive move in offering Denver about $3 million in cash to buy their 27th pick Rudy Gobert. I was fairly surprised that Gobert slipped this far, probably due to his lack of polished offensive skills and many GMs besides Cleveland going for NBA-ready players instead of ones with 'potential.'

Let's see how our rookies have fared compared to others in their rookie campaigns:

2014 NBA Rookies:

Before I show the big table, here are some interesting stats for this year's rookie class.

19 out of the 60 players in the 2013 NBA draft have not player in the NBA yet.

The 2 players we traded for Trey Burke combined are averaging 14 minutes, 5.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 0.7 assists per game. Thank you Minnesota!

Here are the top 20 rookies in minutes per game:

Pick

Team

Player

G

GS

MP

FGA

FG%

3P%

2P%

FT%

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

PER

USG%

ORtg

DRtg

WS/48

11

PHI

M Carter-Williams

49

49

34.3

15.4

0.395

0.274

0.427

0.700

5.4

6.2

2.0

0.7

3.7

2.9

17.0

15.2

26.3

95

108

0.015

2

ORL

V Oladipo

62

37

32.0

11.9

0.411

0.313

0.442

0.780

4.3

4.0

1.6

0.6

3.1

2.7

13.9

13.5

24.0

94

105

0.027

9

UTA

T Burke

49

47

31.0

12.6

0.375

0.343

0.394

0.907

3.2

5.4

0.6

0.1

1.9

2.1

12.5

12.8

22.4

100

114

0.024

15

MIL

G Antetokounmpo

55

21

24.3

5.6

0.430

0.333

0.468

0.682

4.5

1.9

0.8

0.8

1.6

2.3

7.2

11.7

15.7

100

108

0.048

7

SAC

B McLemore

61

34

24.0

7.5

0.360

0.316

0.393

0.819

2.8

0.9

0.6

0.2

1.0

2.3

7.5

7.3

16.8

95

112

0.005

24

NYK

T Hardaway

61

1

22.7

8.1

0.429

0.372

0.492

0.829

1.5

0.8

0.5

0.1

0.6

1.7

9.7

12.3

19.1

110

114

0.069

38

MIL

N Wolters

49

22

22.1

6.7

0.425

0.229

0.459

0.662

2.5

3.3

0.7

0.3

1.0

1.0

6.9

13.0

17.1

103

112

0.047

8

DET

K Caldwell-Pope

59

40

21.2

5.9

0.395

0.315

0.451

0.738

1.8

0.8

0.9

0.1

0.4

1.8

6.0

8.6

13.4

104

110

0.051

13

BOS

K Olynyk

49

6

19.1

6.5

0.429

0.311

0.465

0.818

4.8

1.7

0.5

0.4

1.4

3.2

7.3

13.5

19.9

103

106

0.086

48

LAL

R Kelly

39

13

19.1

5.1

0.430

0.341

0.492

0.810

3.0

1.0

0.4

0.7

0.7

2.2

6.9

12.2

15.5

111

110

0.086

20

CHI

T Snell

55

12

18.9

5.3

0.387

0.331

0.452

0.758

1.9

1.0

0.4

0.2

0.7

1.3

5.5

8.3

15.2

98

104

0.066

4

CHA

C Zeller

61

0

16.8

5.0

0.391

0.000

0.393

0.754

4.1

1.2

0.5

0.5

1.0

2.2

5.5

11.7

19.1

95

102

0.060

22

BRK

M Plumlee

47

5

15.7

3.7

0.626

0.000

0.634

0.624

3.6

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.7

2.2

6.3

18.1

16.7

120

104

0.174

12

OKC

S Adams

62

8

14.6

2.3

0.479

0.000

0.479

0.593

4.1

0.6

0.4

0.8

0.9

2.6

3.3

11.1

12.2

106

102

0.110

10

POR

CJ McCollum

24

0

14.2

5.5

0.436

0.407

0.459

0.722

1.4

0.8

0.4

0.1

1.0

1.6

6.4

10.2

21.0

99

109

0.041

17

ATL

D Schroeder

29

0

12.9

3.5

0.386

0.176

0.429

0.724

1.2

1.8

0.3

0.0

1.3

1.0

3.5

5.1

18.5

81

110

-0.068

1

CLE

A Bennett

49

0

12.8

4.4

0.350

0.245

0.384

0.642

3.0

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.9

1.9

4.2

7.0

20.6

85

106

-0.030

27

UTA

R Gobert

33

0

11.3

1.6

0.453

0.000

0.453

0.500

3.9

0.2

0.2

1.0

0.8

1.5

2.4

11.5

13.3

91

103

0.039

18

DAL

S Larkin

41

0

11.0

3.0

0.376

0.306

0.404

0.652

1.0

1.6

0.5

0.0

0.9

1.0

2.9

8.0

17.3

89

110

-0.018

29

PHX

A Goodwin

43

0

10.6

3.3

0.413

0.125

0.495

0.667

1.8

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.8

0.8

3.4

8.3

18.8

87

107

-0.015

Alright, let's look at this.

Our rookies are 3rd and 18th in minutes per game, not bad for being the 9th and 27th picks. Burke is also 3rd in usage and points per game. Burke is 2nd is assists per game as well. I would say the only player that has outperformed Burke objectively thus far is Michael Carter-Williams. Oladipo and Burke are fairly on the same skill level thus far.

MCW and Mason Plumlee are the only 2 rookies sporting an average PER of at least 15.

Gobert is dominating defensively leading all rookies in blocks while only playing 11 minutes per game!!! He is also 7th in rebounding overall.

4 of these rookies have a negative win share rate, all of them with less than 13 minutes per game.

Only 7 of these rookies have started at least 20 games, or a third of their games so far. This is a fairly weak rookie class but at least our rookies stand out amongst them. MCW is the only other rookie I would consider taking over Burke.

Gobert is heavily overperforming, and I know this is isn't saying much but he is outdoing #1 pick Anthony Bennett. I am extremely pleased with our rookies. Expect to see Burke continue to make strides on both ends of the court as he works on his shooting percentage as well as going for steals. Gobert already has the skills to play as a 3rd big with superb defensive skills.

Honestly though I see no franchise players among this group yet, when I say franchise player I mean someone who can be the top dog on a team that makes it to at least a conference finals.

Here is my rankings of these top 20 rookies in MPG:

Quality Starters

1. Michael Carter-Williams--- This likely-ROY started out electrifying out of the gates this season and hasn't let up enough for any other rookie to catch up to him this year. I just wonder if he is good enough to actually lead his team to wins in the future when actually surrounded by a roster that is better than a D-League team; he should also work on his outside shooting and cutting down on turnovers.

2. Trey Burke--- Our very own starting point guard has been doing a very serviceable job and is leaps and bounds better than the other point guards we were trying out earlier this year. I value his maturity on offense that appears to be a very durable style of play, he just needs to work on his shooting and penetration on offense as well as his overall defensive speed.

3. Victor Oladipo--- Oladipo is one of the few bright spots on a barren Orlando roster. His offensive efficiency has some room for improvement (lowest offensive rating out of the top 15 rookies in MPG) and he should also learn to cut down on turnovers as well. His defensive skills are quite impressive for a rookie.

4. Tim Hardaway Jr.--- Burke's college teammate has already carved himself a role as sixth man on the disappointing Knicks team this year, outdoing last year's sixth man of the year on the same roster, J.R. Smith. Hardaway is the best 3 point shooter out of the rookies thus far and I only see CJ McCollum being capable of overcoming him in that regard.

5. Giannis Antetokounmpo--- The Greek Freak is my favorite non-Jazz rookie out there because his potential puts me in awe. Being a 6'10" wing with a 7'3" wingspan is incredible. His offense and defense is a bit unpolished but honestly not that far behind most of the other rookies. Expect his usage to increase significantly in the coming years.

Rotation Players

6. Ben McLemore--- I thought Ben was one of the guys that Burke would be going against for rookie of the year, but McLemore hasn't even showed up to the party. He has been getting decent playing time on a garbage team, but frankly has done nothing impressive with his athleticism and potential so far.

7. Nate Wolters--- This Luke Ridnour clone has been doing subpar as a point guard thus far, but has a good A/TO ratio of 3.3, but shoots horrid from the 3 at Ronnie Brewer levels. However, if he just continues to be a facilitator and work on his defense he could find himself as a solid backup point guard for years to come.

8. Kelly Olynyk--- This Celtic was very impressive in Summer League but has failed to stand out much. He may improve enough to be a solid started someday, but for now I see him as a poor man's Tyler Hansborough.

9. Mason Plumlee--- This Plumlee brother has been the anomaly of this draft class, playing limited minutes but being absolutely dominant offensively as well as efficient. Time will tell if he can continue to produce at this clip with more playing time.

10. CJ McCollum--- This point guard is a bit under the radar since he was injured for the first half of this season. But this dark horse candidate for sophomore of the year next season is doing good things as he continues to expand his role.

11. Steven Adams--- He has been proving himself to be a decent glue guy on the Thunder, and making Perkins more and more expendable on this team. He doesn't play a whole lot, but I like what I see when I see Steven Adams play.

12. Rudy Gobert--- This blocking expert has been in the doghouse for much of this season, but in the times he has played, his rebounding and blocking skills has wowed many in Jazz nation. Expect Gobert to be a solid backup in future years when defensive lineups are required.

13. Ryan Kelly--- This Laker is 1 of the 2 second round picks in the top 20 rookies by MPG (Nate Wolters being the other). Kelly has been benefitting from the injury decimation of the roster. He is showing himself as being good enough to stay in the league.

14. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope--- I'll be honest with you, I haven't watched this guy play yet, but his stats and his team's play are enough to tell me that he is a low impact player. (8.6 PER, YIKES!)

15. Tony Snell--- I was not expecting Tony to be playing much this year, but he has found playing time on the Bulls this year and seems a bit like a Ronnie-Brewer lite to me.

Fringe NBA Players

16. Cody Zeller--- I thought Zeller was going to have a larger impact this year, with Big Al and Biyombo being his only competition for playing time in the big men rotation. But alas, neither Zeller nor Biyombo are playing much this year as Big Al, Josh McRoberts, and Anthony Tolliver are playing big minutes this year for a mediocre Bobcats roster. Frankly, Cody has not done anything to change the coach's mind yet, we'll see if he ever improves enough to make his case.

17. Anthony Bennett--- Well folks, here is your 2013 Number 1 overall pick. He showed up this season completely out of shape and a bit apathetic. I'm not sure why GM Chris Grant made the call to draft Bennett number 1, but I think his firing a month ago is quite indicative of how terrible a choice that was.

18. Archie Goodwin--- I haven't watched this Sun play yet, but he seems highly subpar in every way.

19. Dennis Schroeder--- I'm disappointed that Dennis has only layed a giant egg so far in his career. Amar built so much hype for him going into the draft that I started to believe him. Oh well, at least he has that bleached spot in his hair going for him, which is nice.....I guess.

20. Shane Larkin--- I recall Larkin being one of the point guard prospects that the Jazz may have drafted if they didn't trade for Burke. Thank freakin goodness that we dodged that bullet.

Notable players who didn't make the cut for top 20 in minutes per game:

3rd pick Otto Porter on the Wizards, 5th pick Alex Len on the Suns, injured 6th pick Nerlens Noel of the 76ers, the traded 14th and 21st picks Shabazz and Dieng on the T-Wolves.

Awesome work in the draft this year Jazz, let's free Gobert for the rest of the year.

It was fun to do this youth development series, I'm very happy with how Burke has been handled this year.

Let me know if there any requests any of you have for my post next week.

Poll results from previous posts:

Development of Hayward: B, Favors: C+, Kanter: C-, Burks: D

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.

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