NBA Draft 2014: Consensus Draft Rankings 6.0 -- Post-Lottery shakeup!

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

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1.0 - March 14th, 2014 // 2.0 - March 17th, 2014 // 3.0 - March 27th, 2014
4.0 - April 9th, 2014 // 5.0 - May 10th, 2014

Okay ladies and gentlemen, another milestone has come and gone in our eventual trip to the NBA Draft 2014: The Draft Lottery. Sadly, the Utah Jazz did not win the lotto, but will instead be picking fifth. While the lotto is a huge deal for the NBA, and the teams picking early, it's less of a deal when you look at the consensus draft rankings. (Unless, you know, everyone starts to pretend that they are factoring in what a specific team will do, instead of just picking best player available.) Some people did factor this in, and others made other changes to their draft order as a result of the previous milestone we just passed, the NBA Draft Combine. As a result, there's been a pretty interesting shake-up with where some players are now projected to go.

Some guys are going up in value, others are, well, getting left in the dust.

Here to make sense of all of it is, well, uh, me -- I guess. I've combed the internet for the 20 most reputable mock drafts, and have collected the information from them that is accurate to the DAY! You have Chad Ford's Top 100 at ESPN, you have places that only do the draft, only do basketball, or like ESPN, do everything. I did replace one 'fan-ish' site with another draft specialist. The downside is that his latest mock isn't accurate for this week. Over all, 19 of the 20 mocks have been updated on the 19th, 20th, or 21st.

The major things to follow are the consensus rankings (that's what this is in order of), and the # of mocks that player is a part of. This increases the certainty that this player is in the mix and has a higher level of confidence in his ranking (as it is based on a larger sample size). There is one flaw though, so far a little over 25% of the mocks used are only for the first round -- so some players that would otherwise be at a higher confidence ranking look a little shaky.

Oh well, when June rolls around we'll have more data.

Okay, on with it!

Rank #1-15:

Player Rk POS HT " WT From XP Age #
1 Andrew Wiggins 1.45 2 3 6 8 80 200 Kansas 1 19 20
2 Joel Embiid 2.20 5 7 0 84 250 Kansas 1 20 20
3 Jabari Parker 2.45 3 4 6 8 80 241 Duke 1 19 20
4 Dante Exum 4.50 1 2 6 6 78 188 (Australia) 1 18 20
5 Julius Randle 5.45 4 6 9 81 225 Kentucky 1 19 20
6 Noah Vonleh 6.40 4 5 6 10 82 240 Indiana 1 18 20
7 Marcus Smart 6.70 1 6 4 76 225 Oklahoma St 2 20 20
8 Aaron Gordon 7.70 4 6 8 80 210 Arizona 1 18 20
9 Gary Harris 10.75 2 6 4 76 210 Michigan St 2 19 20
10 Doug McDermott 10.90 3 6 8 80 210 Creighton 4 22 20
11 Dario Saric 11.65 4 6 10 82 223 (Croatia) 20 20
12 Nik Stauskas 13.30 2 6 6 78 190 Michigan 2 20 20
13 James Young 13.60 2 3 6 7 79 200 Kentucky 1 18 20
14 Tyler Ennis 15.85 1 6 2 74 180 Syracuse 1 19 20
15 Adreian Payne 16.58 4 6 10 82 225 Michigan St 4 23 19

No big surprises here, just a shift in the bottom 10. Most of these guys are on all 20 mock drafts, and there are a few select groupings. The cream of the crop, the next best, and then the "Hey, we are lotto picks too, guys!" group. For the Jazz you see a group of bigs that are available, and then a steep drop off into wings. Do you dare trade down, or can you not risk having a guy like Randle, Vonleh, or Gordon blow up?

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Rank #16-30:

Player Rk POS HT " WT From XP Age #
16 Rodney Hood 17.40 2 6 8 80 180 Duke 2 21 20
17 Zach LaVine 17.53 1 6 5 77 180 UCLA 1 19 19
18 Kyle Anderson 18.32 3 6 9 81 235 UCLA 2 20 19
19 T.J. Warren 19.63 3 4 6 8 80 233 NC State 2 20 19
20 Jusuf Nurkic 20.33 5 6 11 83 280 (Bosnia) 19 18
21 Clint Capela 21.65 4 6 11 83 222 (Switzerland) 19 17
22 Jerami Grant 22.89 3 6 8 80 203 Syracuse 2 20 19
23 Elfrid Payton 22.95 1 6 3 75 170 LA-Lafayette 3 20 19
24 P.J. Hairston 23.11 2 6 5 77 220 NBA-DL 3 21 18
25 K.J. McDaniels 24.65 3 6 6 78 200 Clemson 3 21 17
26 Shabazz Napier 25.24 1 6 0 72 170 Connecticut 4 22 17
27 Cleanthony Early 25.76 3 6 8 80 215 Wichita St 4 23 17
28 Mario Hezonja 28.00 3 6 7 79 200 (Croatia) 19 2
29 Kristaps Porzingis 29.53 4 6 11 83 220 (Latvia) 18 15
30 Glenn Robinson III 29.75 3 6 6 78 210 Michigan 2 20 16

The rest of the first round (by consensus ranking) has more juniors, seniors, and international players in it. We also have a flashpoint here with Hood's stock falling and LaVine's rising. LaVine killed it in the combine and depending on how well his work outs are reported to go, he could knock on the door of the lotto. Two forwards who helped their stock in the combine were Early and Robinson III, and I would be surprised if they didn't both go in the Top 25. The huge outlier here is Hezonja, who is only on 2 of 20 mock drafts. That said, they are both veteran reporters who know their stuff, one even employed by the NBA. So he is a bubble first rounder, but by the rankings (all of 2 people) he is on shaky ground. This could just be the issue of 'our' writers here not knowing enough about him and his game. Time will tell.

Utah picks at #23 here, and there are quality guys for the taking.

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Rank #31-45:

Player Rk POS HT " WT From XP Age #
31 Jordan Adams 30.73 2 6 5 77 220 UCLA 2 19 15
32 Mitch McGary 32.94 4 6 10 82 250 Michigan 2 21 16
33 DeAndre Daniels 34.50 3 6 7 79 191 Connecticut 3 22 14
34 Bogdan Bogdanovic 34.62 2 6 6 78 200 (Serbia) 21 13
35 C.J. Wilcox 34.71 2 6 5 77 180 Washington 4 23 14
36 Jordan Clarkson 35.00 1 2 6 4 76 180 Missouri 3 21 13
37 Jarnell Stokes 36.67 4 6 8 80 250 Tennessee 3 20 12
38 Vasilije Micic 38.07 1 6 4 76 185 (Serbia) 20 14
39 Spencer Dinwiddie 38.67 1 6 6 78 200 Colorado 3 21 12
40 Nick Johnson 40.75 2 6 3 75 200 Arizona 3 21 12
41 Semaj Christon 42.46 1 6 3 75 187 Xavier 2 21 13
42 Artem Klimenko 42.50 5 7 1 85 228 (Russia) 20 4
43 Walter Tavares 42.60 5 7 2 86 265 (Cape Verde) 22 10
44 Thanasis Antetokounmpo 42.67 3 6 5 77 210 NBA-DL 21 12
45 Patric Young 43.00 4 5 6 9 81 245 Florida 4 22 12

For me this group is as exciting as the lotto group because there's going to be a lot of movement here over the next few weeks leading up to the draft. A big riser was Giannis' older brother Thanasis. Some of the players who were slotted as late first rounders back in March find a home here, and it will be interesting to see if they have the fight to get back into the 1st round, and the guaranteed money. Some of the European cats are kind of unknown to me too, so that only increases why this group is a point of interest for me right now.

Of course, the Jazz are known for their smart picks in the second round. That is yet another reason why this group is important to me. The Jazz may get a steal early with their #35 pick, maybe someone here is worth it, or someone dropped out of the 1st round when they should not have? It's going to be fun to see what happens.

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Rank #46-60:

Player Rk POS HT " WT From XP Age #
46 Isaiah Austin 44.09 4 7 0 84 215 Baylor 2 20 11
47 Deonte Burton 44.92 1 6 1 73 185 Nevada 4 22 12
48 Johnny O'Bryant 45.17 4 5 6 9 81 250 LSU 3 20 12
49 Jahii Carson 45.42 1 5 10 70 175 Arizona St 2 21 12
50 Russ Smith 46.50 2 6 0 72 165 Louisville 4 23 12
51 Tomas Dimsa 47.00 2 6 5 77 185 (Lithuania) 20 1
52 Dwight Powell 47.09 4 6 9 81 227 Stanford 4 22 11
53 Damien Inglis 48.29 3 6 8 80 240 (France) 18 7
54 Markel Brown 48.30 2 6 3 75 190 Oklahoma St 4 22 10
55 Jabari Brown 48.64 2 6 4 76 200 Missouri 3 21 11
56 James Michael McAdoo 49.55 4 6 9 81 223 North Carolina 3 21 11
57 LaQuinton Ross 50.88 3 6 8 80 225 Ohio St 3 21 8
58 Khem Birch 51.86 4 6 9 81 210 UNLV 3 21 7
59 Roy Devyn Marble 52.30 3 6 6 78 200 Iowa St 4 21 10
60 DeAndre Kane 52.78 1 2 6 4 76 200 Iowa St 4 24 9

If we are just going by the consensus rankings, then this is the end of the second round. No one else is getting drafted, baby. So if you made it this far, take a bow. You probably notice that we have little consensus on which players are even being ranked (low numbers in the "#" column). That decreases accuracy for sure. The other issue is that the #60 guy in rank as a ranking of 52.78 -- there are plenty of guys between Kane and the players actually getting ranks of 60.00 (theoretically the end of the 2nd round). That's just the nature of competition though.

It must be pointed out that these guys were the guys who were trying hardest at the predraft combine. They had the most to gain, and some guys worked their butts off. And as a result, I would be surprised if some of them didn't earn the right for individual or group workouts with teams. Austin did a great job in person, and distinguished himself -- he could be a sleeper. Marble is a guy the Jazz brass were impressed with, so he may get a visit to Zions bank PF in the future. It also helps that he could go undrafted -- meaning he could be signed to a summer league contract if the Jazz liked him enough to evaluate him more.

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Rank #61-80:

Player Rk POS HT " WT From XP Age #
61 Jordan McRae 52.80 2 6 5 77 178 Tennessee 4 23 5
62 Joe Harris 53.20 2 6 6 78 211 Virginia 4 22 5
63 C.J. Fair 53.22 3 6 8 80 212 Syracuse 4 22 9
64 Cory Jefferson 53.67 4 6 9 81 210 Baylor 4 23 9
65 Rasmus Larsen 53.67 4 6 11 83 210 (Denmark) 19 3
66 Nikola Jokic 55.33 4 6 11 83 253 (Serbia) 19 6
67 Le'Bryan Nash 56.00 3 6 7 79 220 Oklahoma St 3 21 1
68 Melvin Ejim 58.00 3 6 6 78 220 Iowa St 4 23 10
69 Jordan Bachynski 60.00 5 7 2 86 248 Arizona St 4 24 5
70 Ioannis Papapetrou 60.00 3 6 8 80 225 (Greece) 20 1
71 Xavier Thames 60.57 1 6 3 75 195 San Diego St 4 23 7
72 Alessandro Gentile 61.33 2 3 6 6 78 200 (Italy) 21 3
73 Lamar Patterson 62.00 3 6 5 77 225 Pittsburgh 4 22 6
74 Roscoe Smith 63.00 3 6 8 80 204 UNLV 3 23 3
75 Moussa Diagne 63.25 5 6 11 83 230 (Senegal) 20 4
76 Keith Appling 63.80 1 6 2 74 180 Michigan St 4 22 5
77 Alec Brown 65.80 5 7 1 85 212 Wisc Green Bay 4 21 5
78 Mike Moser 66.00 4 6 8 80 230 Oregon 4 23 1
79 Justin Cobbs 67.00 1 6 2 74 190 California 4 23 2
80 Sean Kilpatrick 67.25 2 6 4 76 221 Cincinnati 4 24 4

These are the bubble guys. They may make it in. Or they may have to sneak into othe NBA via the NBA-DL. They will be used as measuring sticks for the 'better' players in group workouts. Some of the combine invitees didn't do much to help themselves, and as a result, dropped a bit.

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Rank #81-100:

Player Rk POS HT " WT From XP Age #
81 Juvonte Reddic 72.25 4 6 9 81 235 VCU 4 21 4
82 Aaric Murray 72.50 5 6 10 82 250 Texas Southern 4 24 2
83 Andre Dawkins 72.50 2 6 4 76 196 Duke 4 22 2
84 Ronald Roberts 73.00 4 6 8 80 215 St. Joseph's 4 22 1
85 Devon Collier 73.00 4 6 8 80 215 Oregon St 4 23 1
86 Bryce Cotton 73.50 1 2 6 1 73 165 Providence 4 21 4
87 Scottie Wilbekin 73.50 1 6 2 74 176 Florida 4 21 2
88 Javon McRae 73.50 4 6 7 79 250 Buffalo 4 23 2
89 Fuquan Edwin 73.75 2 6 6 78 205 Seton Hall 4 22 4
90 Aaron Craft 74.00 1 6 2 74 190 Ohio St 4 23 3
91 Shayne Whittington 75.00 4 6 10 82 210 Western Michigan 4 23 1
92 Travis Bader 75.00 2 6 5 77 191 Oakland 4 22 1
93 Josh Huestis 75.50 3 6 7 79 223 Stanford 4 22 2
94 Nedim Buza 75.50 3 6 7 79 190 (Bosnia) 18 2
95 Akil Mitchell 77.50 4 6 8 80 234 Virginia 4 21 2
96 Kendall Williams 77.75 1 6 4 76 185 New Mexico 4 22 4
97 Tarik Black 78.00 4 5 6 9 81 260 Kansas 4 22 1
98 Viktor Gaddefors 78.00 3 6 8 80 216 (Sweden) 21 1
99 Jakarr Sampson 78.33 4 6 8 80 204 St. John's 2 21 3
100 Mateusz Ponitka 79.00 2 6 6 78 211 (Poland) 20 1

This is the end of the road, but in reality, a good source of motivation. Being low on a list doesn't mean you can't play at the NBA level. I would be surprised if one of them didn't sign on with some team down the line.

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Yes, my big board is over 150 players right now, but these are the only ones to be worried about right now. Players will continue to rise and fall over the next few weeks. And now that the lotto is done and gone we can focus on things like need, range, and predictions. The consensus draft rankings will continue though. While time consuming they are fun. It's a very quick way to know where a player ranks against his peers, and where a player ranks on average over a score of mocks. Subjectivity erodes in a sea of certainty. And the more data we have the closer to a true consensus we can reach!

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Mock Drafts used:
Just NBA Draft All Sports Just Basketball Internet Only Other
1 DraftExpress CBS - Gary Harris Basketball Insiders Bleacher Report Walter Football
2 MyNBADraft CBS - Matt Moore HoopsHype FanSided
3 NBA Draft Insider CBS - Zach Harper Inside Hoops SB Nation
4 NBADraft.net ESPN - Chad Ford NBA.com
5 The Draft Review Sports Illustrated Sheridan Hoops
6 The Sporting News
All mock drafts updated this week (5/19 - 5/21)
Except Sheridan Hoops, and The Draft Review

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