Okay ladies and gentlemen, another milestone has come and gone in our eventual trip to the NBA Draft 2014: The Draft Lottery. Sadly, the Utah Jazz did not win the lotto, but will instead be picking fifth. While the lotto is a huge deal for the NBA, and the teams picking early, it's less of a deal when you look at the consensus draft rankings. (Unless, you know, everyone starts to pretend that they are factoring in what a specific team will do, instead of just picking best player available.) Some people did factor this in, and others made other changes to their draft order as a result of the previous milestone we just passed, the NBA Draft Combine. As a result, there's been a pretty interesting shake-up with where some players are now projected to go.
Some guys are going up in value, others are, well, getting left in the dust.
Here to make sense of all of it is, well, uh, me -- I guess. I've combed the internet for the 20 most reputable mock drafts, and have collected the information from them that is accurate to the DAY! You have Chad Ford's Top 100 at ESPN, you have places that only do the draft, only do basketball, or like ESPN, do everything. I did replace one 'fan-ish' site with another draft specialist. The downside is that his latest mock isn't accurate for this week. Over all, 19 of the 20 mocks have been updated on the 19th, 20th, or 21st.
The major things to follow are the consensus rankings (that's what this is in order of), and the # of mocks that player is a part of. This increases the certainty that this player is in the mix and has a higher level of confidence in his ranking (as it is based on a larger sample size). There is one flaw though, so far a little over 25% of the mocks used are only for the first round -- so some players that would otherwise be at a higher confidence ranking look a little shaky.
Oh well, when June rolls around we'll have more data.
Okay, on with it!
|7||Marcus Smart||6.70||1||6||4||76||225||Oklahoma St||2||20||20|
|9||Gary Harris||10.75||2||6||4||76||210||Michigan St||2||19||20|
|15||Adreian Payne||16.58||4||6||10||82||225||Michigan St||4||23||19|
No big surprises here, just a shift in the bottom 10. Most of these guys are on all 20 mock drafts, and there are a few select groupings. The cream of the crop, the next best, and then the "Hey, we are lotto picks too, guys!" group. For the Jazz you see a group of bigs that are available, and then a steep drop off into wings. Do you dare trade down, or can you not risk having a guy like Randle, Vonleh, or Gordon blow up?
|19||T.J. Warren||19.63||3||4||6||8||80||233||NC State||2||20||19|
|27||Cleanthony Early||25.76||3||6||8||80||215||Wichita St||4||23||17|
|30||Glenn Robinson III||29.75||3||6||6||78||210||Michigan||2||20||16|
The rest of the first round (by consensus ranking) has more juniors, seniors, and international players in it. We also have a flashpoint here with Hood's stock falling and LaVine's rising. LaVine killed it in the combine and depending on how well his work outs are reported to go, he could knock on the door of the lotto. Two forwards who helped their stock in the combine were Early and Robinson III, and I would be surprised if they didn't both go in the Top 25. The huge outlier here is Hezonja, who is only on 2 of 20 mock drafts. That said, they are both veteran reporters who know their stuff, one even employed by the NBA. So he is a bubble first rounder, but by the rankings (all of 2 people) he is on shaky ground. This could just be the issue of 'our' writers here not knowing enough about him and his game. Time will tell.
Utah picks at #23 here, and there are quality guys for the taking.
|43||Walter Tavares||42.60||5||7||2||86||265||(Cape Verde)||22||10|
For me this group is as exciting as the lotto group because there's going to be a lot of movement here over the next few weeks leading up to the draft. A big riser was Giannis' older brother Thanasis. Some of the players who were slotted as late first rounders back in March find a home here, and it will be interesting to see if they have the fight to get back into the 1st round, and the guaranteed money. Some of the European cats are kind of unknown to me too, so that only increases why this group is a point of interest for me right now.
Of course, the Jazz are known for their smart picks in the second round. That is yet another reason why this group is important to me. The Jazz may get a steal early with their #35 pick, maybe someone here is worth it, or someone dropped out of the 1st round when they should not have? It's going to be fun to see what happens.
|49||Jahii Carson||45.42||1||5||10||70||175||Arizona St||2||21||12|
|54||Markel Brown||48.30||2||6||3||75||190||Oklahoma St||4||22||10|
|56||James Michael McAdoo||49.55||4||6||9||81||223||North Carolina||3||21||11|
|57||LaQuinton Ross||50.88||3||6||8||80||225||Ohio St||3||21||8|
|59||Roy Devyn Marble||52.30||3||6||6||78||200||Iowa St||4||21||10|
|60||DeAndre Kane||52.78||1||2||6||4||76||200||Iowa St||4||24||9|
If we are just going by the consensus rankings, then this is the end of the second round. No one else is getting drafted, baby. So if you made it this far, take a bow. You probably notice that we have little consensus on which players are even being ranked (low numbers in the "#" column). That decreases accuracy for sure. The other issue is that the #60 guy in rank as a ranking of 52.78 -- there are plenty of guys between Kane and the players actually getting ranks of 60.00 (theoretically the end of the 2nd round). That's just the nature of competition though.
It must be pointed out that these guys were the guys who were trying hardest at the predraft combine. They had the most to gain, and some guys worked their butts off. And as a result, I would be surprised if some of them didn't earn the right for individual or group workouts with teams. Austin did a great job in person, and distinguished himself -- he could be a sleeper. Marble is a guy the Jazz brass were impressed with, so he may get a visit to Zions bank PF in the future. It also helps that he could go undrafted -- meaning he could be signed to a summer league contract if the Jazz liked him enough to evaluate him more.
|67||Le'Bryan Nash||56.00||3||6||7||79||220||Oklahoma St||3||21||1|
|68||Melvin Ejim||58.00||3||6||6||78||220||Iowa St||4||23||10|
|69||Jordan Bachynski||60.00||5||7||2||86||248||Arizona St||4||24||5|
|71||Xavier Thames||60.57||1||6||3||75||195||San Diego St||4||23||7|
|76||Keith Appling||63.80||1||6||2||74||180||Michigan St||4||22||5|
|77||Alec Brown||65.80||5||7||1||85||212||Wisc Green Bay||4||21||5|
These are the bubble guys. They may make it in. Or they may have to sneak into othe NBA via the NBA-DL. They will be used as measuring sticks for the 'better' players in group workouts. Some of the combine invitees didn't do much to help themselves, and as a result, dropped a bit.
|82||Aaric Murray||72.50||5||6||10||82||250||Texas Southern||4||24||2|
|84||Ronald Roberts||73.00||4||6||8||80||215||St. Joseph's||4||22||1|
|85||Devon Collier||73.00||4||6||8||80||215||Oregon St||4||23||1|
|89||Fuquan Edwin||73.75||2||6||6||78||205||Seton Hall||4||22||4|
|90||Aaron Craft||74.00||1||6||2||74||190||Ohio St||4||23||3|
|91||Shayne Whittington||75.00||4||6||10||82||210||Western Michigan||4||23||1|
|96||Kendall Williams||77.75||1||6||4||76||185||New Mexico||4||22||4|
|99||Jakarr Sampson||78.33||4||6||8||80||204||St. John's||2||21||3|
This is the end of the road, but in reality, a good source of motivation. Being low on a list doesn't mean you can't play at the NBA level. I would be surprised if one of them didn't sign on with some team down the line.
Yes, my big board is over 150 players right now, but these are the only ones to be worried about right now. Players will continue to rise and fall over the next few weeks. And now that the lotto is done and gone we can focus on things like need, range, and predictions. The consensus draft rankings will continue though. While time consuming they are fun. It's a very quick way to know where a player ranks against his peers, and where a player ranks on average over a score of mocks. Subjectivity erodes in a sea of certainty. And the more data we have the closer to a true consensus we can reach!
Mock Drafts used:
|Just NBA Draft||All Sports||Just Basketball||Internet Only||Other|
|1||DraftExpress||CBS - Gary Harris||Basketball Insiders||Bleacher Report||Walter Football|
|2||MyNBADraft||CBS - Matt Moore||HoopsHype||FanSided|
|3||NBA Draft Insider||CBS - Zach Harper||Inside Hoops||SB Nation|
|4||NBADraft.net||ESPN - Chad Ford||NBA.com|
|5||The Draft Review||Sports Illustrated||Sheridan Hoops|
|6||The Sporting News|
|All mock drafts updated this week (5/19 - 5/21)|
|Except Sheridan Hoops, and The Draft Review|