As much of this off-season has been focused on the draft for us Jazz fans, I decided to take my own look at the draft class and calculated the estimated PERs for the top 30 draft selections from Draft Express.
While I'm not going to present all that estimated PER information here, I am going to show the PER charts I generated for Wiggins, Embiid, Parker, Smart, Gordon, and McDermott (yes, I included McBuckets - you'll see why). No, I don't have anything for Exum as he didn't play college ball; sorry folks.
Some background on estimated PER. Estimated PER is not PER - PER is a measure of player efficiency generated by John Hollinger that is complicated and not easily calculated. Estimated PER approximates actual PER and can be quickly calculated from box scores.
Remember the number 15 as that is the PER efficiency number for an average player.
Please note that I understand that estimated PER is only one measure of performance and there are other things that should be looked at too (i.e. age, physical tools, etc) - however, I think estimated PER may be helpful in looking at where each draft prospect stands in terms of development.
So here are the charts:
|Wiggins||-5 to 4||5 to 14||15 to 24||25 to 34||35 to 44||45 to 54|
|Embiid||-5 to 4||5 to 14||15 to 24||25 to 34||35 to 44||45 to 54|
|Parker||-5 to 4||5 to 14||15 to 24||25 to 34||35 to 44||45 to 54|
|Smart||-5 to 4||5 to 14||15 to 24||25 to 34||35 to 44||45 to 54|
|Gordon||-5 to 4||5 to 14||15 to 24||25 to 34||35 to 44||45 to 54|
|McDermott||-5 to 4||5 to 14||15 to 24||25 to 34||35 to 44||45 to 54|
You can see why I included McDermott's estimated PER chart - he had the best college year estimated PER-wise of the 30 Draft Express draftees.
Before everyone gets really down on Aaron Gordon and really high on Doug McDermott, I would point out the age of these two players. Gordon is the youngest of the group at 18 years and McDermott is the oldest at 22; to me this means Gordon has the most development to do, while McDermott has had time to develop his game.
A couple of other things here. McDermott is 6' 7.75" tall in shoes and has a 6' 9.25" wingspan; while Gordon is 6' 8.75" tall in shoes and has a 6' 11.75" wingspan. Gordon also performed better on the agility test and shuttle run; and has a better vertical leap than McDermott.
So while McDermott had the better year stat wise last year, it may be Gordon that develops into a better pro do to his physical skills and where he stands on the development curve.
Smart was also of interest to me as he is likely to be around when we draft at the 5th spot. Smart is the same age as Embiid and a year older than Parker and Wiggins. He is versatile, Oklahoma State used him to guard spots 1 through 4 in college.
Smart is strong, he is 6' 3.25" in shoes, and has a wingspan of 6' 9.25" (note that's the same as McDermott's). He also weighs 227 lbs; this is NBA size.
Smart also rebounds well for a guard (5.9 boards a game) and picks pockets at an elite rate (2.9 steals a game). I would note steals and rebounds are skills that tend to translate well to the NBA.
Much has been made about Smart's hot headed-ness. It is a valid concern; however, I think his hotheaded-ness may be minimized on the Jazz given the amount of good character guys we have and the structure the Jazz provide.
I also think a backcourt of Burke, Burks, and Smart would be formidable. You could play Burke and Smart or Burks and Smart together; and if you wanted to play small, you could play all three at the same time.