FanPost

Recency Bias or: Why Kobe is Steaming Garbage (relatively)

It has been argued by many people that Kobe is one of the all-time greats; he is even compared to Michael Jordan (usually by Lakers fans born after 1993). Don't get me wrong, Kobe is an all-time talent. Definitely one of the greatest players the NBA has seen. But nowhere close to top 10, and he *might* crack the top 15, but even that would be something of a stretch in my opinion.

I recently argued that Kobe is the most overrated athlete in any sport, ever, and that Kobe at his best wasn't even close to MJ at his most average. Jazzyman argued that the gap between Kobe and MJ was not as great as I claimed, so I dug my teeth into the stats. Here is what I found.

Kobe’s best season

41 mpg, 35.4 PPG on 45% FG (34.7% from 3, 49.1 eFG%, 56% TS%), 85% FT on 10.2 attempts per game, 5.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.4 blocks, 3.1 turnovers, 2.9 fouls (basically 35/5/5/2/0.5 on 45/35/85 shooting)

Jordan’s average season (including his garbage twilight years on the Wizards):

38.3 mpg, 30.1 PPG on 49.7% FG (32.7% from 3, 51 eFG%, 56.9% TS%), 83.5% FT on 8.2 attempts per game, 6.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.3 steals, 0.8 blocks, 2.7 turnovers, 2.6 fouls (basically 30/6/5/2.5/1 on 50/33/83 shooting – if you don’t count his 2 years in Washington, those numbers increase to 32/6/5/2.5/1 on 51/33/84 shooting)

Looking at this, Kobe scores slightly more, but with significantly lower efficiency (+3 points per game on +4.5 FGA and +2 FTA per game). Jordan has the edge in rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, and fouls.

"But Jordan!" you cry, "that’s a minimal difference!"

You’re right. But let’s look at the advanced metrics. That’s really where Kobe doesn’t even come close.

Kobe’s best season (05-06)

TS% .559
TRB% 7.6
AST% 24.1
STL% 2.4
BLK% 0.7
TOV% 9
USG% 38.7

OWS 11.6
DWS 3.7
TWS 15.3
WS/48 .224
OBPM 7.3
DBPM -1.5 (yes, negative – Kobe had just 6 seasons with a positive DBPM, and only ONE season with a DBPM higher than 0.3. Jordan had 10 such seasons.)
BPM 5.8
VORP 6.5

Now, Jordan’s average season:

TS% .569
TRB% 9.4
AST% 24.9
STL% 3.1
BLK% 1.4
TOV% 9.3
USG% 33.3

OWS 10
DWS 4.3
TWS 14.3
WS/48 .250
OBPM 7
DBPM 1.1 (Jordan had just ONE season with a DBPM in the negatives)
BPM 8.1
VORP 6.96

Jordan's edge over Kobe (Jordan's average season vs Kobe's best):

+10% in TS%

+1.8% in TRB%

+0.8% in AST%

+0.7% in STL%

+0.7% in BLK% (aka double what Kobe did)

-0.3% in TOV% (05-06 was one of three seasons for Kobe with a TOV% lower than 10. For comparison, Jordan posted a TOV% higher than 10 just 3 seasons.)

-5.4% in USG% (Kobe used more possessions, but used them WAY less efficiently. Not necessarily a good thing here.)

For OWS and TWS, Kobe has a slight edge; +1.7 and +1, respectively (at the cost of lower efficiency, and with higher MPG over Jordan). Jordan has the edge in DWS and WS/48 +0.7 and +.026, respectively. Kobe boasts a slightly higher OBPM (0.3 higher than MJ), while MJ dominates in DBPM and BPM, a whopping +2.6 and +2.3, respectively, over Kobe.

In Kobe's 05-06 season, he posted a VORP of 6.5 ... and for comparison, MJ's career average VORP was 6.96.

Like I said. Kobe doesn't even come close to MJ. And I loathe MJ.

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.