FanPost

Why I Will Be Burned at the Stake Prior to My 41st Birthday

I'm going to put this out there Cotton > Burke.

Sure, Burke's got the pedigree - he went to a big name school, got to the NCAA championship game, was drafted in the lottery, etc, etc. But there's not much difference in physical tools between Burke and Cotton:

Burke - November 12, 1992 (age 22):
Height with shoes - 6'1.25"
Standing reach - 8'1.5"
Wingspan - 6'5.5"
Weight - 187 lbs
Standing vertical - 29.5"
Max vertical - 36.5"
3/4 sprint - 3.16 seconds
Lane agility - 11.2 seconds

Cotton August 11, 1992 (age 23)
Height with shoes - 5'11.75"
Standing reach - 7'11"
Wingspan - 6'2"
Weight - 163 lbs
Standing vertical - 31.5"
Max vertical - 45"
3/4 sprint - 3.25 seconds
Lane agility - 11.59 seconds

Physically, Burke has a slightly bigger body, but Cotton has the better leaping ability.

Beyond the physical, Cotton appears to "get it" from the intellectual side.

Cotton plays better defense than Trey and also brings pace to one of the slowest offenses in the NBA. In 15 games last season, Cotton recorded a Pace of 100.50 (this stat projects the number of possessions a player would have per 48 minutes) and Defensive Rating of 101.3 (this is based on 100 possessions).

Contrast that with Trey Burke. In 76 games, Trey had a Pace of 93.19 and a Defensive Rating of 104.5.

Ben Dowsett in his article "Organic Cotton: How Bryce Might Be Utah's Best Fit at PG" (dated September 1, 2015) points out instances where Cotton uses his speed to force Ty Lawson and JJ Barea (both considered quick point guards) into bad shots and turnovers. Ben's analysis basically states Cotton beats Ty to his spots and remains on Barea's hips, keeping his hands smartly raised straight up - i.e. Cotton has good footwork and positioning. Ben goes on to praise Cotton on how he is able to navigate screens and recover effectively when needed.

Another Ben Dowsett article "Bold Strategy, Cotton: How Bryce Is Helping Set a Developmental Blueprint for the Jazz" (dated April 14, 2015) explains how Cotton jump starts the pace for the Jazz. Here Ben notes that Cotton uses his awareness and recognition to get the ball up the court quickly and exploit defenses.

Amar even notes "I do still contend that Cotton is faster with the ball right now going North/South" (Jazz Rookie Point Guard Bryce Cotton is Really Exciting, but Still a Mystery dated April 14, 2015).

In addition to the foregoing, Cotton gets to the free throw line - and hits his free throws - at a higher rate than Trey Burke. Last season Trey Burke got to the line 3.4 times per 100 possessions (with a free throw percent of 75.2), whereas Cotton averaged 6 per 100 possessions (with a free throw percent of 83.3).

Despite these stats and the eyeball test, Cotton gets no love. Just look at these quotes:

"It came as a huge shock to me that they didn't ask Bryce Cotton to play. After all, if you listen to many Jazzfans it's obvious which of the two is superior. ('That, Marge, was sarcasm.' - Homer J. Simpson)"

- AllThatAmar (@AllThatAmar) July 15, 2015 (Trey Burke invited to USA Basketball Camp)

"Bottom line, as enamored as we've been with Bryce Cotton over the summer, and as much as I want to see Raul Neto compete in the NBA, in the short-term, Trey Burke is still the best choice at backup point guard."

- Layton Shumway (@theshums) July 28, 2015 (Never Too Early)

"In fact there's a better chance of Withey making the final opening day roster than Bryce Cotton because without Dante Exum for the season the Jazz will need Rudy Gobert more than ever."

- My_Lo August (@My_Lo) 28, 2015 (The Utah Jazz's Strategic Advantage)

I don't get it folks.

Here are some Trey vs Cotton summer league stats:

Trey 2nd year-

PIE 6.75%
PPG 9.0
RPG 4.0
APG 4.0
TPG 3.0
FG% .304
3P% .143
FT% 1.000 (6 of 6; 1.5 attempts per game)

Cotton 1st year -

PIE 10.33%
PPG 8.8
RPG 2.7
APG 2.8
TPG .67
FG% .450
3P% .231
FT% .933 (14 of 15; 2.5 attempts per game)

Cotton 2nd year -

PIE 14.25%
PPG 15.4
RPG 3.9
APG 3.8
TPG 2.0
FG% .354
3P% .343
FT% .953 (45 of 47; 5.9 attempts per game)

So I threw in a new stat that I haven't mentioned before - the PIE stat (or Player Impact Estimate). This is a stat produced by the NBA. Here is what we are told about it:

"It is a simple metric that gives an excellent indication of performance at both the team and player level. It’s a major improvement to our EFF Rating. Notably 2 things changed: (1) We included Personal Fouls, (2) We added a denominator. We feel the key here is the denominator because it acts as an 'automatic equalizer'. Using the denominator, we find there is no need to consider the 'PACE' of the statistics that are being analyzed. In its simplest terms, PIE shows what % of game events did that player or team achieve. The stats being analyzed are your traditional basketball statistics (PTS, REB, AST, TOV, etc..) A team that achieves more than 50% is likely to be a winning team. A player that achieves more than 10% is likely to be better than the average player. A high PIE % is highly correlated to winning. In fact, a team’s PIE rating and a team’s winning percentage correlate at an R square of .908 which indicates a 'strong' correlation. We’ve introduced this statistic because we feel it incorporates a bit of defense into the equation. When a team misses a shot, all 5 players on the other team’s PIE rating goes up."

Here's how to calculate PIE:

(PTS + FGM + FTM - FGA - FTA + DREB + (.5 * OREB) + AST + STL + (.5 * BLK) - PF - TO) / (GmPTS + GmFGM + GmFTM - GmFGA - GmFTA + GmDREB + (.5 * GmOREB) + GmAST + GmSTL + (.5 * GmBLK) - GmPF - GmTO)

Note that a rating of 10% is a player that is "likely better than the average player". Trey had a 6.75% rating in summer league play in his second year versus Cotton's first year rating of 10.33%. Cotton's second year rating jumped to 14.25% (my understanding is that "elite" players fall in the 15-20% range).

What were Cotton's and Trey's PIE rating for the 2014-15 NBA season? Trey came in with a rating of 8.5% and Cotton with a rating of 10.5%.

Getting back to the point. Cotton's first summer league numbers were similar to, if not better than Trey's second summer league stats; and Cotton's second summer league is head and shoulders better than Trey's. When you throw in the NBA season data, it's clear Cotton's the better PG right now.

I have another reason that I have an affinity for Cotton. He's an underdog, always has been, and has earned his way up through the basketball ranks. Coming out of high school he had zero college offers despite earning Tucson all-city honors and being known for athleticism and quickness on the AAU circuit. While Chico State invited Cotton to campus for an official visit, flew him out and said they wanted him, they ultimately didn't make him an offer (i.e. Division II Chico State spurned him.) Three days before freshman orientation started, Providence offered Cotton a scholarship - three days!

Per Cotton, "A couple schools had reached out, but nobody offered. I would get one call and then never hear from them again. I've always had to overcome obstacles, I've always flown under the radar and I've always had to prove people wrong to get to where I'm at."

Cotton went on to win the Big East scoring title one year (took second another year) and led the conference in assists his senior year. After dropping 36 points against North Carolina in the NCAA tournament, he was rewarded with no invites to the NBA draft combine and went undrafted.

Prior to the draft, Cotton said, "As I'm noticing throughout this draft process, it's the same scenario where I have to go out there and prove my worth again because there's just a lot of doubt with my ability. This is a road I've been down before that's what's helping me get to this point in my life because it's always kept me very humble and let me know that I have to work hard because nothing will ever be given to me."

God Shammgod who has worked with Cotton, had this to say about him, "He can play pick and roll like Chris Paul, his mid-range game is phenomenal, his floater is phenomenal, like Tony Parker's. And I think he's going to get better and better because he's like a sponge."

So here we are. Cotton's a fighter and works his butt off. His stats show that he is improving. PIE likes Cotton, I like Cotton, is there anyone else?

D'Joumbarey A. Moreau with HoopsHabit thinks that "if Lindsey doesn't find a way to keep Cotton on the roster and give him playing time after the numerous performances that we've seen him have over the summer it would be a travesty. It would one be one of the most glaring mistakes Lindsey's made during his tenure as the general manager."

Let's not bury Cotton just yet.

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.